2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[lovetoaster]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Fact: The Orioles and the Marlins went Underslot! They went with #9 and #10 rated.

Fact: Torkelson was going #1 or #2 and Did!

Fact: The Royals went with the top pitcher in the draft.

The actual results mean little to the reality!

Pick                        Rank

#1                              #1

#2                              #10

#3                              #9

#4                              #3

#5                              #2

#6                              #4

#7                              #5

 

After the obvious under slots the outcome pretty much went in the order they should have

 

 

Why do you think they went underslot? If there is an obvious, franchise-changing talent there, you aren't going underslot. 

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

While all this is true we also know that he was targeting a pitcher at 30 that he didn't get.  So at least part of his plan fell through.

Agreed.  I think he had a Plan A, Plan B and so forth.   Maybe if he gets his guy at #30 he doesn't get either Mayo or Baumler.   Who knows.   It seems as though Plan A did not come together perfectly.

[Hazmat]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed.  I think he had a Plan A, Plan B and so forth.   Maybe if he gets his guy at #30 he doesn't get either Mayo or Baumler.   Who knows.   It seems as though Plan A did not come together perfectly.

I suspect that one of Mayo or Baumler, perhaps both, were concessions for Bitsko not falling to 30.

[hoosiers]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Regardless of the approach and theory the hit rate on 4th/5th round players is less than that of the 1st. Your best chance to hit is the 1st round

RT, you are going off the reservation with some of these replies.  It's like someone took away your cookies.  This is ridiculous. 

You can stand on your soap box and yell "BPA" and refuse to listen to any argument made by anyone else because, well, BPA. 

When you go shopping for a safe car, do you buy the most expensive Volvo if it is the absolute safest or do you find an car that combines appropriate safety with appropriate affordability.  There are shades of gray in all aspects of our lives and it sounds so childish to hear someone hold there breath and scream "Best Player Available" while covering their ears.  

I don't care if the Os rated Martin a 60 on an 80 scare and had Kjerstad as anything from a 55-65.  

Do you know how many prospects in our system were drafted and signed by the Os to a bonus over $1M?  12 with some dating back to the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

How many of those signed for over $1.5M? AR, GrayRod, DLHall, Gunnar Henderson, Sedlock and Grenier - six guys.

Do you know how many guys taken in the O's 2020 draft will get over $1.5M?  At least FIVE!  It is a major influx of talent.

Finally, while you are stewing on that BPA soapbox, can you please explain to me how in the world Kjerstad outhit Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team?  Seriously, how is that even possible in the world of BPA?

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

RT, you are going off the reservation with some of these replies.  It's like someone took away your cookies.  This is ridiculous. 

You can stand on your soap box and yell "BPA" and refuse to listen to any argument made by anyone else because, well, BPA. 

When you go shopping for a safe car, do you buy the most expensive Volvo if it is the absolute safest or do you find an car that combines appropriate safety with appropriate affordability.  There are shades of gray in all aspects of our lives and it sounds so childish to hear someone hold there breath and scream "Best Player Available" while covering their ears.  

I don't care if the Os rated Martin a 60 on an 80 scare and had Kjerstad as anything from a 55-65.  

Do you know how many prospects in our system were drafted and signed by the Os to a bonus over $1M?  12 with some dating back to the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

How many of those signed for over $1.5M? AR, GrayRod, DLHall, Gunnar Henderson, Sedlock and Grenier - six guys.

Do you know how many guys taken in the O's 2020 draft will get over $1.5M?  At least FIVE!  It is a major influx of talent.

Finally, while you are stewing on that BPA soapbox, can you please explain to me how in the world Kjerstad outhit Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team?  Seriously, how is that even possible in the world of BPA?

 

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Fact: At least 4 MLB front offices did not consider Austin Martin to be the BPA for their organization and situation.

Fact: The consensus 1:1 pick from this draft would not have been the 1:1 pick in the previous draft, and may have not even been Top 3.

Fact: The consensus 1:1 pick from this draft was not Austin Martin.

[linedrive]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Baumler must be really, really, really good!

lol. My point being that the more top pitching candidates we have, the more likely we'll find 2-3 that will pan out and take us OVER the top. Baumler could be one of those, but if he doesn't pan out, we don't have a lot left.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.

If (they) means Elias, he would have to think you talented enough to be worth 1.5m.   Its his evaluation. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s very likely statistically that only one of these guys pans out. From year to year the percentage of players that become an all star from round 1 is about 30%. The number decreases with each round. You highest and best shot is the guy in the 1st round. You pick the best player , get him signed, and then need some luck. They are almost all lottery tickets 🎫 that don’t pan out. I think passing on Martin lowers the likelihood of getting the best result. If you or @Tony-OH or whomever else don’t agree fine. But the marginal uptick that you get in the 4th or 5th round when the hit percentage is considerably lower is negligible. Plus you’ve traded arguably the highest rated player on some boards for a guy that’s ranked around 10. I don’t understand what is so hard to grasp. 
 

To further answer your question .... the three lottery tickets don’t have the same chance to hit. The guys you could’ve gotten in the 4th or 5th at values likelihood of hitting don’t change much.

The issue people have with your stance is you use words like lunacy or you say the team drafted a .250 hitter. I've said my take on this issue. I liked 5 out of 6 of the picks and like how he decided to take on some high risk, high reward guys in the 4th and 5th rounds when other teams were taking slot 4th and 5th rounders. I'm fine if you disagree nor do I think a differing take on this is luncay. It's just a different opinion and with the way MLB drafts go, it will take years to know who was right so there's no reason to be too upset or too happy right now.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, linedrive said:

I desperately want to love this draft, but I'm sold on the idea that you can't win a Championship without elite pitching. We need to draft guys like a Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Chris Carpenter in the first round. Teams like the Nationals, Dodgers and Royals all drafted four pitchers this draft, and the Braves, who only had four picks, took three. In my opinion, that's what we should be doing. Sure, we can get to the playoffs by knocking the ball out of the park, but we're not going to go deep into the playoffs or win a World Series without 2 or 3 top starters to carry us to the end. If we don't draft them, where are we going to get them??? Do we have deep enough pockets to outbid NY, LA, Boston, etc.?

This draft was okay, but if Baumler doesn't pan out, I don't like our chances of winning a Championship this decade. 

My educated guess is Elias hopes to build up a stable of position players and then trade for starting pitching that is either ready or nearly ready. Plus, the strength of this organization is in it's pitching prospects with Rodriguez and Hall potential TORs.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he is why was a right handed 1B ranked above him?

We have a winner... Martin has a good hit tool, but his average power limits his ceiling in the power game that is played today. 

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.

There are many talented players who sign for less than $1.5MM. Everyone who is signed for $1.5MM is tremendously talented.

Since they would not draft you, your point is moot.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

There are many talented players who sign for less than $1.5MM. Everyone who is signed for $1.5MM is tremendously talented.

Since they would not draft you, your point is moot.

 

My point was that an arbitrary cutoff, say 1.5M isn't of a lot of value when evaluating the likely impact of draftees.  The poster in question didn't even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim.  Why 1.5M and not 1.2M or 1.7M?

 

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point was that an arbitrary cutoff, say 1.5M isn't of a lot of value when evaluating the likely impact of draftees.  The poster in question didn't even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim.  Why 1.5M and not 1.2M or 1.7M?

 

I think that critique is fair. I did not see it that way when I first read it.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The issue people have with your stance is you use words like lunacy or you say the team drafted a .250 hitter. I've said my take on this issue. I liked 5 out of 6 of the picks and like how he decided to take on some high risk, high reward guys in the 4th and 5th rounds when other teams were taking slot 4th and 5th rounders. I'm fine if you disagree nor do I think a differing take on this is luncay. It's just a different opinion and with the way MLB drafts go, it will take years to know who was right so there's no reason to be too upset or too happy right now.

As mentioned in the other thread.... I think Elias is a bust. I have not been impressed with his trades, signings, and now 2 drafts. Beyond AR whom you or I could’ve drafted. 
 

On the international front it’s definitely improved but there was nowhere to go but up