Bundy is a decent comp, but he's been able to log innings at a consistent rate since his Tommy John. Harvey seemingly can't go 10 innings without having tightness in his arm or something and having to be shut down. He had to be shut down last year, he had to be shut down this year. I'm too lazy to look up his entire injury history but I don't have any confidence that he can throw a lot of innings out of the bullpen without having issues.
But Bundy's arm isn't Harvey's arm. They're two separate entities and should be treated as such. Comping injury probability is tricky because everyone has different DNA, everyone has different issues.
So you think a platoon of Valaika (-0.1 rWAR this year, -0.6 rWAR last year) and Wilkerson (-1.0 rWAR last year and taken off the 40-man roster this year) would outperform Alberto (0.4 rWAR this year, 2.9 rWAR last year)? I recognize they might improve their numbers in a platoon situation, but I don’t think it’s very likely they would increase them by enough to outperform Alberto, and of course you’d have to use two roster spots to do it.
As to finding someone better on the waiver wire or a cheap purchase, I asked who you wanted and don’t have an answer.
What this comes down to is you don’t think Alberto is as good as his WAR figures say he is, because he’s had bad splits vs. RHP the last two years. We simply disagree about that. I think the numbers have been a fair reflection of Alberto’s value. I’d peg him as a 1-2 WAR player for next year, and at $3 mm, that’s not bad.
As to Bannon (also mentioned by SG and Philip), I am interested in him long term but he’s had very little AAA experience (20 games), struggled in the AFL last fall and wasn’t given a 60-man roster spot this year so I doubt the team is ready to roll the dice on him It’s a shame the minor league season wasn’t played, because if it had he’d either be in the majors right now or at least we’d know more about whether we could pencil him in for 2021.
He hasn't. That doesn't mean he can't. No point in being doom and gloom about it. Look at Bundy. He was never what he once was but he has gone on to a productive career. There is all the more reason to think that could be the case with Harvey due to the freakish and unrelated nature of several of the injuries.
Sums it up perfectly.
As tantalizing as he is, as good as his stuff is, I really don't see the need to keep giving him chances. And I'm sure that the trade value is low, it's not like we're the only ones who understand what's going on with him but we need guys that can stay healthy. Unfortunately, he can't.
I have no idea what he looks like defensively but offensively, his numbers seem to be fine...at least enough to give him a chance while waiting on a guy like Vavra.
Alberto isn’t a guy I care if he’s here or not.