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Orioles make an offer to Yasiel Puig. UPDATE: Puig to sign with Braves Tests POSITIVE for COVID 19

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5 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Yasiel Puig makes the Orioles a slightly easier team to watch in 2020. Full stop.

This is about where I am.  Arguably a top 3 reason to watch the team this year.

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Not a fan of this move if they make it.  Puig doesn't even seem to be an analytics friendly player.  Not sure what Elias or Sig would be interested in this at all really.  Save the money, let the young guys shuffle through and have their hacks.  Its only 60 games.

 

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6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is likely that you won't get a good return on your money if you do trade him.

How good a prospect do you need to get to break even on what you pay Puig?

A 45 FV prospect is valued at around 10-15 million according to fangraphs.  They don't have one listed for 40 FV but it's something around 3-4 million with high variance IIRC.  A utility player will easily be worth 4 million during his cost controlled years.

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I’d be all for a year and team option for next year. Try and trade him if it makes sense, bring some small amount of excitement to the fan base and let the players have some fun playing with and watching a player that often gives 100%. 
Plus, who really knows. There is a world where Puig comes in on fire, Davis hits 20 homers and Cobb stays healthy and the O’s sneak into the playoffs. The rebuild is looking long and my patience is wavering.

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43 minutes ago, panick said:

Which O's coach do you think Puig will kiss after he hits home runs?

Please bring back Buck as a bench coach so he could kiss Buck.  Hilarity would ensue.  (I know Buck wouldn't take a bench coach job).

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14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Not a fan of this move if they make it.  Puig doesn't even seem to be an analytics friendly player.  Not sure what Elias or Sig would be interested in this at all really.  Save the money, let the young guys shuffle through and have their hacks.  Its only 60 games.

 

  

Could have similar upside to Nelson Cruz on a one year deal mashing in Camden Yards with one last chance at a big free agent deal. He has every incentive to produce. Even if he isn't traded they could hit him with QO. If Santander and DJ Stewart have to slide to the bench, so be it. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

  

Could have similar upside to Nelson Cruz on a one year deal mashing in Camden Yards with one last chance at a big free agent deal. He has every incentive to produce. Even if he isn't traded they could hit him with QO. If Santander and DJ Stewart have to slide to the bench, so be it. 

 

And if he accepts the QO?

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49 minutes ago, Hallas said:

A 45 FV prospect is valued at around 10-15 million according to fangraphs.  They don't have one listed for 40 FV but it's something around 3-4 million with high variance IIRC.  A utility player will easily be worth 4 million during his cost controlled years.

I think it's a great idea if he's undervalued. It's just another way to add talent to the organization. We don't even know what the deal is, so I'll hold my judgement until more details come out. My gut tells me he gets a sweeter deal elsewhere.

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5 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I think it's a great idea if he's undervalued. It's just another way to add talent to the organization. We don't even know what the deal is, so I'll hold my judgement until more details come out. My gut tells me he gets a sweeter deal elsewhere.

Variations in value on players almost don't matter if they're talented enough, because salaries are pro-rated.  The short season makes wacky things like us signing Puig for a $4 million (after the pro rata adjustment) deal plausible.  That wouldn't be worth it at all if we had to pay for a full season.  But because of the built-in discount due to the 60 game season, a player would have to be massively overvalued for him to not make sense.

 

edit to add: I think that most years we can assume that we'd get back at least a 45 FV prospect for a player like Puig, but this is not most years.  We don't really know if the teams will take this season seriously and offer the same level prospects for him as they would other years.  So there are definitely some unknowns and risk.  But to me it seems like a relatively low-risk, high-reward strategy to sign as many talented players looking for 1 year deals as you can, securing a massive discount because of the shortened season, and then trade them for prospects

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14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

First thing I'd do is spend my full draft allotment.  Then I'd spend my full international allotment.  I think the ROI for both of those is higher than it is for this sort of thing.

I already said that I would rather take on a bad contract for a return today than sign a guy and try and trade him at a later date.

If you can't do better than spending 1.7M for a 300K return you should sit on the money.

Still losing sleep over the 1.4% of draft allotment not spent?

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29 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Still losing sleep over the 1.4% of draft allotment not spent?

If you have money to burn you should concentrate spending on the areas that give the best return.  Have the O's done that?

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