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wildcard

It's time for the OH to turn the page

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Just now, Gatoriole said:

What do you think "backing into the playoffs" means? The 2014 Orioles are curious.

Winning the division by less than 20 games.

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19 minutes ago, Gatoriole said:

What do you think "backing into the playoffs" means? The 2014 Orioles are curious.

They were only 4-6 in their last ten games? So what that they’d already clinched the division by then, if they’d gotten to 100 wins they’d have been much more confident in the ALCS. 

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Just now, makoman said:

They were only 4-6 in their last ten games? So what that they’d already clinched the division by then, if they’d gotten to 100 wins they’d have been much more confident in the ALCS. 

If they had Manny, Matt and Chris they'd have been much more confident.

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2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Any team that gets hot at the right time can win a World Series.

You'd think that, but if your starting pitching matchups for the start of the first playoff series are Bullpen Day, and TBD against Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka it might be an uphill battle.

Jose Iglesias has spent almost 50% of his career batting 9th.  For the Orioles he's spent all but three PAs batting third.  His OPS is like 300 points above his career mark.

The Orioles success has been in large part due to Alex Cobb, Tommy Milone, and and Shawn Armstrong.  Milone had a 5.67 ERA since 2016.  Over the past two years Cobb was hurt, and when not hurt was 5-17, 5.36.  Armstrong had a 5.74 ERA last year.

Pedro Severino has a 1.014 OPS.  His career mark is .682. 

This is a .500 team like I'm brain surgeon, and if somehow they get the 4th wildcard or whatever the odds of them winning the Series are near zero.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

This is not a team that can beat the Yankees on a regular basis but it can contend for a playoff spot.

That is my take.

My take is, I don't think whether they end up contending for a playoff spot in a 60-game season where 16 teams are going to make the playoffs is going to tell me anything about whether they are making progress towards building a championship contending squad for some future 162 game season.     I'm happy to have baseball to watch, and of course I am hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle for two months and make the playoffs.    That would be highly entertaining, especially in a year when we were deprived of four months of baseball.    But ultimately what I care about is returning this team to a level where it can win 90+ games over a 162 game season and be a serious threat in the playoffs, not whether they can make an improbable run in this year's flukathon.

I'm glad Hyde thinks some of our players are better this year than they were last year.     We have a lot of young guys, and I'd hope that some of them would improve with experience.   We'll see what sticks and what is a 14-game hot streak.    Even 60 games won't be a full indicator of what sticks, though.   At the 60-game mark last year, Pedro Severino had a .937 OPS  and Dwight Smith Jr. was on pace for 25+ homers and about 110 RBI.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Today's game will mark the the completion of 25% of the season.   

The O's are not playing like the worst team in the majors.  They are not going to get a high draft choice if the keep playing like they have.   In fact they are playing like contenders for  the playoffs.   A .500 team.    We should stop thinking of them as the 2019 Orioles.    They have improved.  They are 2nd to the Yankees in the AL in OPS.   Their pitching and defense has improved over last season.

Here is how Brandon Hyde sees it:

Question: Do you think it speaks to how it may be a little different this year?

Hyde: I just think our guys have gotten better. Its pretty obvious our bullpen guys have improved.  I think you are seeing Severino, Ruiz, Alberto, Nunez, guys have improved....... I just think that guys that were here last year, we did a nice job getting them better.  The pen guys have improved over last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ECt02FNY2o&t=5s

Here are the moves I expect from the O's in the near future:

 1.   Mountcastle will get called up in the next week.   Why? Because they need his bat. 

2. Davis plays less at first and becomes more of a defensive replacement for late innings.  If they are going for a playoff spot they can't keep playing Davis if he is going to have a 400 OPS.

3.  Nunez will become close to  an everyday 1B.  He has looked good there this season.  He is moving better and scooping low throws.

4. DH opens up for a combination  of Nunez, Mountcastle, Smith,  Sisco/Severino and Valaika.   Valiaka is hitting lefties for  a 1625 OPS.  Not that he will continue at the pace but lefties is where he gets his at bats. With Holaday on the team  Severino, 1014 OPS/Sisco, 1264 OPS  are free to DH when not catching. Smith has a 879 OPS vs righties.  Smith, Sisco  and   Davis sit vs lefties which makes Mountcastle right-handed bat useful.   But if he is called up he is not just going to hit vs lefties.

5.  When Means return the O's will have 7 possible starters.   Means, Cobb, LeBlanc, Milone, Wojo with Eshelman and Akin adding length in mid to long relief.

6. I  look for Phillips and Hess to be sent to Bowie.

This is not a team that can beat the Yankees on a regular basis but it can contend for a playoff spot.

That is my take.

I agree the O’s aren’t playing like the worst team in the Majors, and they won’t get a high draft pick at this pace, but they’re only 4 games ahead of the worst team in the Majors, and two games ahead of the worst team in the AL, so there’s still plenty of time to regress.

Personally, I would prefer getting a high draft pick than make the playoffs at this point. This team still needs to acquire some top talent, and winning right now isn’t going to help us obtain the level of talent we need to sustain a team that can contend for the next decade. I’m glad some of the players we have are playing well, but hopefully we can trade them to another team desperate to make the playoffs and win the WS. In fact, this is the perfect year for an unlikely team to win the WS, and we have an opportunity to take advantage of those teams. That means we have to make some big moves, even if it costs us the playoffs.

On the plus side, trades could open the door for guys who might be the future of the franchise, and that would be enough to satisfy me this year.

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Gonna get a bit awkward if/when Elias starts trading some of the veteran players at the end of the month. 

The team is scrappy and fun to watch but they are being helped out alot by some solid pitching performances from veteran players that likely won't be here after this year (Cobb, Milone, Leblanc, etc). Now if those guys are traded or guys like Akin, Kremer,  and Zimmerman come up and perform well, then I'll start to think the team has left the "completely tank" part of the rebuild.  I will say that Elias has found some solid contributors for the bullpen with all his waiver claims. 

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3 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

That’s actually the team that prompted My comment.

The Orioles have backed into the playoffs the last three times they did. All the other times they didn’t make it, they just straight up died in September, or earlier.

Would love to see an orioles team get hot in the fall, playoffs or not.

???

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26 minutes ago, Philip said:

So...

Who IS the worst team in the majors?

and don’t say “the Marlins” because...ummm...yeah.

Pirates

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they had Manny, Matt and Chris they'd have been much more confident.

And if Britton had not flown cross country on no sleep. 

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You'd think that, but if your starting pitching matchups for the start of the first playoff series are Bullpen Day, and TBD against Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka it might be an uphill battle.

Jose Iglesias has spent almost 50% of his career batting 9th.  For the Orioles he's spent all but three PAs batting third.  His OPS is like 300 points above his career mark.

The Orioles success has been in large part due to Alex Cobb, Tommy Milone, and and Shawn Armstrong.  Milone had a 5.67 ERA since 2016.  Over the past two years Cobb was hurt, and when not hurt was 5-17, 5.36.  Armstrong had a 5.74 ERA last year.

Pedro Severino has a 1.014 OPS.  His career mark is .682. 

This is a .500 team like I'm brain surgeon, and if somehow they get the 4th wildcard or whatever the odds of them winning the Series are near zero.

This post is brutally correct.

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