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wildcard

It's time for the OH to turn the page

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You'd think that, but if your starting pitching matchups for the start of the first playoff series are Bullpen Day, and TBD against Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka it might be an uphill battle.

Jose Iglesias has spent almost 50% of his career batting 9th.  For the Orioles he's spent all but three PAs batting third.  His OPS is like 300 points above his career mark.

The Orioles success has been in large part due to Alex Cobb, Tommy Milone, and and Shawn Armstrong.  Milone had a 5.67 ERA since 2016.  Over the past two years Cobb was hurt, and when not hurt was 5-17, 5.36.  Armstrong had a 5.74 ERA last year.

Pedro Severino has a 1.014 OPS.  His career mark is .682. 

This is a .500 team like I'm brain surgeon, and if somehow they get the 4th wildcard or whatever the odds of them winning the Series are near zero.

Thanks you Doctor.  They are waiting for you in surgery.

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They still dropped four to the Marlins. I would liken them more to the second half 2011 O's than 2012. Still a lot more exciting than the last few years for sure.

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You'd think that, but if your starting pitching matchups for the start of the first playoff series are Bullpen Day, and TBD against Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka it might be an uphill battle.

Yeah, I mean a starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price would be absolutely unbeatable in the playoffs.   Especially when the other team is starting Chris Tillman, Wei-Yei Chen and Budd Norris.  Oh, wait...

How about Means / Cobb for Game 1/2 starters.   (Although the Yanks have owned Means recently, so maybe not the best Idea.) 

 

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2 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Yeah, I mean a starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price would be absolutely unbeatable in the playoffs.   Especially when the other team is starting Chris Tillman, Wei-Yei Chen and Budd Norris.  Oh, wait...

How about Means / Cobb for Game 1/2 starters.   (Although the Yanks have owned Means recently, so maybe not the best Idea.) 

 

Now do it three more times.

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The positive people are going to stay positive, the negative people are going to stay negative, and the people in the middle are going to stay in the middle.

I consider myself a middle man but Idunno.

I think the team is moving in the right direction but the 16-team playoff is going to take a number of mediocre teams to the post season.  If the Orioles make it they'll be one of them, with a small shot at lucking into the World Series.  That's probably a middle-of-the-road take too.

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I don’t think that the O’s are a good team.  But I really enjoy it when they play like a good team.

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11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Today's game will mark the the completion of 25% of the season.   

The O's are not playing like the worst team in the majors.  They are not going to get a high draft choice if the keep playing like they have.   In fact they are playing like contenders for  the playoffs.   A .500 team.    We should stop thinking of them as the 2019 Orioles.    They have improved.  They are 2nd to the Yankees in the AL in OPS.   Their pitching and defense has improved over last season.

Here is how Brandon Hyde sees it:

Question: Do you think it speaks to how it may be a little different this year?

Hyde: I just think our guys have gotten better. Its pretty obvious our bullpen guys have improved.  I think you are seeing Severino, Ruiz, Alberto, Nunez, guys have improved....... I just think that guys that were here last year, we did a nice job getting them better.  The pen guys have improved over last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ECt02FNY2o&t=5s

Here are the moves I expect from the O's in the near future:

 1.   Mountcastle will get called up in the next week.   Why? Because they need his bat. 

2. Davis plays less at first and becomes more of a defensive replacement for late innings.  If they are going for a playoff spot they can't keep playing Davis if he is going to have a 400 OPS.

3.  Nunez will become close to  an everyday 1B.  He has looked good there this season.  He is moving better and scooping low throws.

4. DH opens up for a combination  of Nunez, Mountcastle, Smith,  Sisco/Severino and Valaika.   Valiaka is hitting lefties for  a 1625 OPS.  Not that he will continue at the pace but lefties is where he gets his at bats. With Holaday on the team  Severino, 1014 OPS/Sisco, 1264 OPS  are free to DH when not catching. Smith has a 879 OPS vs righties.  Smith, Sisco  and   Davis sit vs lefties which makes Mountcastle right-handed bat useful.   But if he is called up he is not just going to hit vs lefties.

5.  When Means return the O's will have 7 possible starters.   Means, Cobb, LeBlanc, Milone, Wojo with Eshelman and Akin adding length in mid to long relief.

6. I  look for Phillips and Hess to be sent to Bowie.

This is not a team that can beat the Yankees on a regular basis but it can contend for a playoff spot.

That is my take.


 

If they are keeping Davis just to be a late inning replacement they should cut him.

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Just now, Roll Tide said:


 

If they are keeping Davis just to be a late inning replacement they should cut him.

I said they should cut him last year and turns out it would have cost the O's over 13M.  I can't argue that between the Pandemic and looming labor issues it makes sense to cut him right now.

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4 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Yeah, I mean a starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price would be absolutely unbeatable in the playoffs.   Especially when the other team is starting Chris Tillman, Wei-Yei Chen and Budd Norris.  Oh, wait...

How about Means / Cobb for Game 1/2 starters.   (Although the Yanks have owned Means recently, so maybe not the best Idea.) 

 

Our good teams actually had mostly decent rotations-- especially in 2014. On that team Tillman was 13-6 with a 3.34, Chen was 15-6 with a 3.54, and Norris was 15-8 with a 3.65. Plus Miguel Gonzalez with a 3.23 in 26 starts and Kevin Gausman with a 3.57 in 20 starts. Five SPs 30 years old or younger with ERAs in the 3s. Our current rotation is Means and four 30-somethings whose last ERAs under 4 were either years ago or never. 

So, anything could happen in a short series, but our rotation has a long way to go before it matches the rotations from our last run of success.

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The team is currently comprised of a collection of cast-offs, written off journeymen, young guys with potential, and recycles. All of them have or had promise at some point. But on paper, no one would look at this team and say they could play good baseball.

But every once in awhile you get a collection of guys who don't know they're supposed to be bad at the game. A little success becomes self-perpetuating. So much of this game is between the ears. Kinda fun to think it might be happening here.

It's happened to unlikely collections of guys before.. and it'll happen again. And every time it happens, there are the standard cadre of "serious" baseball guys that are only too happy to tell you why it's just a fluke, and that it isn't really happening.

Is it happening here? I dunno. Sometimes it's ok just to enjoy the ride.
 

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12 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

This post is brutally correct.

From mid-1988 until spring 1989 the Orioles added Phil Bradley, Gregg Olson, Brady Anderson, Curt Schilling, Chris Hoiles, Tim Hulett, Mickey Weston, Brian Holton, Bob Melvin, Mike Devereaux, Dave Johnson, Kevin Hickey and called up Steve Finley, Craig Worthingon, Bob Milacki, and Pete Harnisch,.

The '12 Orioles added Wei-Yin Chen, Ryan Flaherty, Wilson Betemit, Jason Hammel, Luis Ayala, Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Steve Pearce, Darren O'Day.  Late the previous year they acquired Tommy Hunter, Pedro Strop and Chris Davis.  They called up Manny. 

The '20 Orioles have added Jose Iglesias, Pat Valaika, Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone, while getting back minor leaguers and salary relief for Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From mid-1988 until spring 1989 the Orioles added Phil Bradley, Gregg Olson, Brady Anderson, Curt Schilling, Chris Hoiles, Tim Hulett, Mickey Weston, Brian Holton, Bob Melvin, Mike Devereaux, Dave Johnson, Kevin Hickey and called up Steve Finley, Craig Worthingon, Bob Milacki, and Pete Harnisch,.

The '12 Orioles added Wei-Yin Chen, Ryan Flaherty, Wilson Betemit, Jason Hammel, Luis Ayala, Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Steve Pearce, Darren O'Day.  Late the previous year they acquired Tommy Hunter, Pedro Strop and Chris Davis.  They called up Manny. 

The '20 Orioles have added Jose Iglesias, Pat Valaika, Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone, while getting back minor leaguers and salary relief for Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar.

Don't forget, no Mancini, either.

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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

wildcard's eternal optimism is not infectious.

I'd prefer Wildcard's Disease over covid or the flu, seven days a week and twice on Sundays, tho! :)

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