Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
RZNJ

Outfield depth? We need it.

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Flatly disagree.  

Santander 1.7 rWAR, 37 games 

Hays 0.7 rWAR, 33 games

Stewart 0.6 rWAR, 31 games

Mountcastle 0.5 rWAR, 35 games

Mullins 0.4 rWAR, 48 games 

Every single one of them played significantly over replacement value.  The O’s were 5th in the AL in Wins Above Average for the outfield, at +1.1.   These were small sample sizes, and we could see regression in 2021, but given the ages and experience levels of these players, I’d say the more likely scenario is that as a group we see improvement on a performance that already was pretty good.    

 

 

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:


i was trying to say 1 of Mountcastle or Mancini likely wind up at first. 

I think Mancini plays first if he's able to play in the field.

I'm not at all certain that Mountcastle would be better served at first. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Look at the number of games.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Remember WAR is a cumulative stat, if each played a full season those numbers would be higher, so long as they kept hitting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Most of them played less than a quarter of a full season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Philip said:

Remember WAR is a cumulative stat, if each played a full season those numbers would be higher, so long as they kept hitting

Sure ...but there’s nothing saying that Mullins doesn’t go into a spiral. Hayes stays healthy. Really , Mountcastle is the only OF that I feel comfortable with his growth and progression. Santander did well but he hasn’t started a full season yet either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most of them played less than a quarter of a full season.  

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

None of this has anything to do with what you initially said.  You made it seem like their WAR wasn’t a big deal because it’s a low number.  But without the context of games played, that’s just a false statement.

No one is saying they would have all been 3-4 WAR guys but they showed that ability in the sample size of 2020.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

None of this has anything to do with what you initially said.  You made it seem like their WAR wasn’t a big deal because it’s a low number.  But without the context of games played, that’s just a false statement.

No one is saying they would have all been 3-4 WAR guys but they showed that ability in the sample size of 2020.

Plenty of AAAA players have a 1/4 season where they looked like MLB pieces 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

I made it very clear in my post that it was a small sample size and they could regress.    But the simple fact is, they all performed significantly above replacement level in the relatively short time they played.   And, because of their age and experience level, as a group  I like their chances of improving rather than regressing.   That’s not to say that all of them will improve.   But collectively I think the chances of improvement are better than 50/50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Sure ...but there’s nothing saying that Mullins doesn’t go into a spiral. Hayes stays healthy. Really , Mountcastle is the only OF that I feel comfortable with his growth and progression. Santander did well but he hasn’t started a full season yet either.

I kind of agree and WHO saw THAT coming!!!? 😛

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Philip said:

Mountcastle and Mancini are not outfielders, unless standing in the outfield with a glove counts.

You keep saying this about Mountcastle and you keep being wrong.  He was roughly average in LF with very little game experience behind him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

You keep saying this about Mountcastle and you keep being wrong.  He was roughly average in LF with very little game experience behind him.

You are incorrect. I looked him up just to make sure. He had zero outs above average, zero runs prevented, at FanGraphs, he had minus 1.8 dWAR, negative DRS at every position, including sadly, 1B, which was his worst. He has mildly positive OF UZR/150, but that’s his only above zero stat. 
I know that defense stats take a long time to normalize, but defense has always been the knock on MC, he admits it himself, so it is incorrect to suggest he is a positive defender, though he may hit well enough that it doesn’t matter. I would rather have a real Of and put MC at DH.

Edited by Philip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Philip said:

You are incorrect. I looked him up just to make sure. He had zero outs above average, zero runs prevented, at FanGraphs, he had minus 1.8 WAR, negative DRS at every position, including sadly, 1B, which was his worst. He has mildly positive OF UZR/150, but that’s his only above zero stat. 
I know that defense stats take a long time to normalize, but defense has always been the knock on MC, he admits it himself, so it is incorrect to suggest he is a positive defender, though he may hit well enough that it doesn’t matter. I would rather have a real Of and put MC at DH.

Mountcastle was -1.8 dWar in half of an abbreviated season?  I find that hard to believe.  He would have had to make Jose Canseco look like Willie Mays. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Off topic, but just out of curiosity I googled Wei-Yin Chen's name, and discovered he was the highest-paid player of the 2020 MLB season at $22 million.  I don't know how that is possible, but then again not much made sense in 2020. As far as Santander, he seems like a JAG.  Maybe slightly above a JAG.  Certainly not a guy to build around, but a capable 5-7 hitter in a lineup of a somewhat contending team.  In other words, he isn't that special. I hope Yusniel Diaz gets a chance this year.  He was supposedly the cornerstone of the Machado trade, and I have yet to see him in any box score.  He isn't getting any younger, let the dude play.
    • Its a good get.  The back half isn't like LeMahieu with the please play him six more years thing, and leapfrogging them in 2/3/4/<never> years will be tougher. Vlad might need to try 3B again if they want to start Tellez and all three of last year's outfielders. He's 5 years almost to the day older than Correa, not that we have $150M lying around, but some chance in 2022 whoever Correa's team is may have a shot at the younger/cheaper/better thing.     Using B-Ref tonight Springer as wild guess for overall Correa comp has 28 WAR in 3600 PA to Correa's 26 WAR in 2600 PA, though Springer better and healthier lately. Maybe now Realmuto in his Bryce/Dombrowski group text is like - ha, your $100M offer, so puny.   He lacks Mets stalking horse though. Good job Jays buying more good players when you've grown enough good players.   I'm good with anybody beating the Yankees, or at least stressing Gerrit Cole's summer, one more year.
    • I watched him pitch..I’m just not completely overvaluing 14 innings.
    • I don't think you watched him pitch. He is not a strikeout pitcher. He threw 83% changeups. He was a beast for 14 innings against MLB hitters. I don't care about his age. As long as he is cheap he gets a shot. 
    • https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2021-top-100-prospects-list/   There is nothing linear about a Top 100 Prospects ranking. The difference between ranking 90th and 91st on the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list is often infinitesimal, as the gap between No. 1 and No. 20 on the list is always larger than the gap between No. 75 and No. 125.
    • I think most teams only have about 5 or so true core players...4+ WAR guys and/or dominant BP arms (WAR doesn’t properly rate relievers). Legit AS level guys.    
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...