Jump to content
wildcard

Salary Arbitration makes O's infield uncertain

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think its probably a year early for that.  I fully expect Elias to follow the Tampa model.  They traded Archer for a couple of really good prospects because Archer was getting expensive.  Now they are floating Snell to see if they can do the same thing.

I don't think Elias offers Santander of long term deal.  I think when Kjerstad is ready in a year or two Elias trades Santander for good prospects.

The answer to the infield is in the minors most likely.   Henderson and Westburg will probably be promoted aggressively.   Not stay at levels very long if they are doing well.

We saw Elias slow round Mountcastle's promotion.  That was mainly not use his service time until the O's had more of their core in or close to the majors.  When Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall are ready for the majors, I don't see other prospects getting slow rounded.  They will be promoted more aggressively to get as many talented players in the majors while those three's window is open.  Hopefully for 5 or 6 years.

JMO

 

 

I think that’s an excellent theory and I think that’s an excellent process. Never keep an excellent player and his last two years of arbitration. You get three cheap years and one so so year, and then you trade them for prospects and start the process over again. Having said that, I’m not sure that Santandar will be THAT Good. He may end up being worth more to us to keep than to trade, but either way, I think an extension for any of our guys is unwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I think people fell a little too far in love with Santander’s 2020 performance over 37 games.   I seriously doubt he’s going to post a .314 ISO on a regular basis as he did in his short stint this year.    It is probably fair to suggest that he and Nunez are similar offensive players.    

Still, I think you underestimate the difference between being a solid defensive corner OF and being a DH who is a very poor defender at 1B/3B.    
 

No, I’m really not.

I understand that Santander is the better and more valuable player but offensively, they are basically the same.  Yet people act like Nunez brings nothing to the table offensively.  They say he doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for a good average and doesn’t provide a lot on the bases..that’s the same profile for Santander except he walks even less.

Sure he can field better but since DH is a position you have to fill, that really doesn’t matter.  The question isn’t which would you rather have.  You can have them both with no issues.  Just don’t sit there and tell me that Santander is some great player and Nunez is nothing.  That’s just bs.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m really not.

I understand that Santander is the better and more valuable player but offensively, they are basically the same.  Yet people act like Nunez brings nothing to the table offensively.  They say he doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for a good average and doesn’t provide a lot on the bases..that’s the same profile for Santander except he walks even less.

Sure he can field better but since DH is a position you have to fill, that really doesn’t matter.  The question isn’t which would you rather have.  You can have them both with no issues.  Just don’t sit there and tell me that Santander is some great player and Nunez is nothing.  That’s just bs.

I know some of these comments aren’t directed at me.    I do think Nunez has some offensive value as he hits now, and as I said before may even have some offensive upside beyond what he’s gone so far.  

I happen to think WAR does a very good job of evaluating what Nunez is worth.  fWAR has him at 0.6 for 2019, 0.3 for 37% of a full season in 2020 (so call it 0.8 over a full year).    rWAR has him at 0.4 last year, 0.4 this year (so call it 1.1 over a full season).   So overall, he’s about a .5-1.0 WAR player.    That’s not nothing.   I also agree with you that $2 mm is not too much to pay for such a player.    It just depends on the team’s situation.   If Elias feels he’s not worth that given the other alternatives for this team, I’m fine with that.   
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know some of these comments aren’t directed at me.    I do think Nunez has some offensive value as he hits now, and as I said before may even have some offensive upside beyond what he’s gone so far.  

I happen to think WAR does a very good job of evaluating what Nunez is worth.  fWAR has him at 0.6 for 2019, 0.3 for 37% of a full season in 2020 (so call it 0.8 over a full year).    rWAR has him at 0.4 last year, 0.4 this year (so call it 1.1 over a full season).   So overall, he’s about a .5-1.0 WAR player.    That’s not nothing.   I also agree with you that $2 mm is not too much to pay for such a player.    It just depends on the team’s situation.   If Elias feels he’s not worth that given the other alternatives for this team, I’m fine with that.   
 

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

This isn't the same argument or it isn't to me.  But I think if the Orioles throw Nunez away because they don't want or can't afford to spend 2 MILLION dollars, then I agree with you.  I just think it is much more likely that he is a fair DH but not much else and the O's have several other guys that are going to be getting those DH ab's.  

I worry more about him taking a step forward to another level.  I also believe that if Elias shared my view he would be on the team because 2 mil would be cheap.  The team dropped 3.5 mil on Iglesias.  

I think they will spend, but I think they will also look for ways to eliminate redundancy.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

Gee whiz!  So much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth over DFA'ing of a journeyman (at best) DH.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they keep the expanded roster size then that really de-values position players. You can platoon your way through a season like the Dodgers and Rays did. 
 

I think Alberto is gone. The Sanchez situation is a tough one to predict. I think we keep Valaika, and he could get lots of ABs at 3B and 2B. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be a very interesting  day this week on how many guys get non tendered and not just the Orioles.  Lots of reports about how much teams lost and they expect many players to hit free agency after their arbitration is declined.  This class is rather weak in terms of top talent but the market could get flooded with players  and then add in the uncertainty of the start of the season could make off season fun to watch.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/26/2020 at 9:37 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

If they keep the expanded roster size then that really de-values position players. You can platoon your way through a season like the Dodgers and Rays did. 
 

I think Alberto is gone. The Sanchez situation is a tough one to predict. I think we keep Valaika, and he could get lots of ABs at 3B and 2B. 

Doesn’t Alberto become more valuable in a world of platooning all over the field?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets look at both Santander and Nunez offensively at 26 years old

Season WOBA WOBACON Barrel % Hard Hit % Exit Velo XBA XSLG XWOBA XWOBACON
Renato Nunez .341 .453 12.1 36.4 86.3 .228 .433 .301 .388
Anthony Santander .358 .404 10.2 36.7 88.6 .286 .510 .338 .378
MLB AVG .317 .370 6.4 34.9 88.3 .250 .414 .321 .376

They are not significantly different though Santander is ahead in the most important OBA and especially XWOBA categories. 

The key here is defensively value and cost. Santander is a switch hitting plus defensive RFer while Nunez is a DH. If Nunez played any position effectively, he'd be offered arbitration. Santander's issues have been staying healthy and he doesn't walk much, but then again, he doesn't strike out all that much either.

Overall, Santander is a more valuable player than Nunez and this is coming from a guy who think Nunez is worth more than obviously the rest of baseball does.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Then what makes you think another team would give us value for him?

Because he’s a good player on a cheap contract for a while.

On OH however, there are some that think he should be in the elite category in 2021.  That’s pretty crazy to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Lets look at both Santander and Nunez offensively at 26 years old

Season WOBA WOBACON Barrel % Hard Hit % Exit Velo XBA XSLG XWOBA XWOBACON
Renato Nunez .341 .453 12.1 36.4 86.3 .228 .433 .301 .388
Anthony Santander .358 .404 10.2 36.7 88.6 .286 .510 .338 .378
MLB AVG .317 .370 6.4 34.9 88.3 .250 .414 .321 .376

They are not significantly different though Santander is ahead in the most important OBA and especially XWOBA categories. 

The key here is defensively value and cost. Santander is a switch hitting plus defensive RFer while Nunez is a DH. If Nunez played any position effectively, he'd be offered arbitration. Santander's issues have been staying healthy and he doesn't walk much, but then again, he doesn't strike out all that much either.

Overall, Santander is a more valuable player than Nunez and this is coming from a guy who think Nunez is worth more than obviously the rest of baseball does.

Yes, Santander is definitely the more valuable all around player.

The issue I have, which you pointed out here, is that there is very little offensive difference between the 2.  However, when reading posts on here, you have people who basically think Santander is an AS with the bat and that Nunez is a nothing with the bat.  That’s where I have an issue.

Obviously you wouldn’t trade Nunez for Santander..but that isn’t and never has been the discussion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I don’t pretend to know the Orioles plan. But, they have exposed some interesting players to the rule 5 draft. If they were going to nontender any combination of Alberto, Sanchez, Valaika, and or Armstrong it seems like they hold each protected another guy or two from the rule 5 by doing it for the protection date last week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • It seems like that the only possible way that the O’s (or most teams for that matter) can compete is by building an elite farm system.  Given how hard and how slow that process is, I wanted to ask the O’s experts on here a few simple question for discussion:   1. how long would you estimate that it takes for a team to go from a mediocre/poor farm system, to a system that has produced enough major league talent to win in the AL east?  Additionally, how long in your opinion does the pro club need to suck while building the farm. 2. is there a team that you would prefer that the O’s model their approach after?  Is it Tampa?  Toronto? St. Louis?  I think the Tampa model is the most brutally efficient, but I can’t see many people truly being happy with that model in the long haul (getting rid of good players while value is high, rarely spending a dollar in FA). 3. do you like the financial model of baseball as opposed to other professional leagues?  Baseball has always been my favorite sport, but it really seems to favor the larger market teams in the end.  Not that smaller market teams can’t compete, it’s just that every year it seems the larger market teams win.  I know there are some poor large market orgs, but I personally get disinterested when I see how imbalanced the competitive landscape can be at times.  
    • Same chance of getting you a championship in 2022.
    • o   lllllllllllllllllllllll. (vs. MARINERS, 12:35 PM)       llllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll        llllllllllllllllllllll.l (vs. MARINERS, 4:05 PM)     llllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll    o
    • Contracts like Davis really hurts the game overall more than it hurts the individual team. Typically teams that have a bad contract just pick up and move on from the player...meanwhile the fans hold a grudge towards the player. Baltimore is doing a disservice to the game by not releasing him and moving on.
    • Yikes. Here's what the O's gave up in 24 hrs.:     WAR, 1991 ff.     Finley        43.5     Harnisch    17.6     Schilling    80.2     Tettleton    17.9     Total lost: 159.2 Davis        0.2     Robinson    -0.6     Total gained: -0.4         Total, net: 159.6 10 yrs    16 WAR/yr.     16 yrs.    10 WAR/yr.    
    • My wife and I went to Sunday's game with another couple and had a great time. A couple observations: - Bottom line up front is that I'd very much encourage folks to go. We've been relatively cautious during Covid, but really at no point felt cramped or uncomfortable. Certainly some of that is that now most of the folks I was with were fully vaccinated, but there's plenty of space in between seats and really not that many people. Even coming into the stadium and in concession lines, people were generally respectful of distance and it was no issue. I'm sure, anecdotally, there will always be someone messing up, but it wasn't an issue for us. Just wanted to start with that context for those that harbor understandable apprehensions, acknowledging everyone has different circumstances/risk perceptions. - Definitely make sure you read the modified regulations before you go - the issue with purses and parking, as some folks noted above, are definitely present. You've just got to be aware of them and plan (my wife switched out her purse just before leaving the house, and my friend's wife had a borderline-sized purse that got waved through after a little negotiation). I can't speak for parking, as we just did a garage on Pratt. - Mobile ticketing and electronic payments were all fully in use, so do recommend just coming prepared. If you're comfortable with using them, it's no issue, but understand some people aren't as tech savvy. Just a pretty minor planning factor. - Regarding masks, most people were good about wearing them, though clearly some of that slipped when people were sitting at their seats. I did see a few times where ushers enforced the masking at your seat rule, but it didn't seem overly draconian (it wasn't that if your beer left your lips for more than two seconds and your mask wasn't up, ushers would descend on you). Those patrons I observed were mostly compliant when directed (except the stray Phillies fan who decided to be difficult). Although I know some folks aren't crazy about it, to be honest, I've been at work every day for the last year wearing a mask the entire time for 8+ hours, so I'm not especially sympathetic. Little bit of a pain, but won't kill ya for a couple hours. - As others have stated, most but not all concessions appeared to be open. Prices did feel a touch on the steep side, but I'd bet they're comparable to what they were in 2019. The O's clearly haven't moved to the Ravens modified pricing. - Lastly, the bar scene before the game was of course quite different than normal, but still very workable and pleasant. Pickles, Sliders, etc have taken over huge spaces in front of their buildings, with plentiful tables well-spaced out. We got to Sliders at maybe 11:45 before a 1 o'clock game on a Sunday, and we had no issue getting a table. Again, overall would recommend folks go, if you're comfortable. I'll tell you it was absolutely great to get back out there and do something normal after having been cooped up for so long.
    • One last thought. When the reserve clause died in court and all players could become free agents every year, the players union was smart and agreed to a service requirement. It was good for salaries and good for the sport to control supply/demand, even if it seemed like a giveaway by the players. If there was a non-performance clause built into free agent contracts that gave some level of relief to owners, it would benefit salaries and the sport. Small to mid size teams would have more ability to chase top talent because the affect of a bad contract would be less calamitous to their limited payroll means if it was discounted by some percentage for non-performance. Ask Scott Boras if he’d rather have three teams bidding for his client or six. Our very own Albert Belle contract made insuring contracts fairly cost prohibitive (though it kinda seems like we’re keeping Davis on the roster for some reason other than insanity). But that practice of insuring contracts showed that there’s more money to spend on players if you give owners some level of protection from disaster contracts like Davis. Owners used to pay huge amounts to insure contracts before they became cost prohibitive. So if it’s good for competitiveness by allowing smaller teams to be more aggressive, and it’s good for player salaries, and it’s good for owners by protecting their investments, by what principle is a player entitled to the full value of a contract that they have essentially defaulted on for non-performance? 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...