Does it depend how he profiles defensively? If he's 2B or 3B, that's a harder sell as #1, very easy sell if he can stick at SS. I like Dru Jones for his profile of his dad pretty much, maybe with more speed.
I think what this shows is that the price for this type of player is falling dramatically. Peralta is probably more in line with what Mancini could expect in an extension. Schwarber has shown a bit more power than everyone on here besides Trumbo. That, and his HR tear this year, is why he could receive a 3/60 type deal (though I’m skeptical).
None of those comps are really that similar to Trey because he has the unique situation of having stage 3 cancer and went through chemo. Any GM offering a multi year contract must include that as a risk factor which may shorten the number of years a team may want to commit guaranteed money.
That said I think Trey's value is low right now because of his second half of 2021. With a normal off season of Trey being the worker that he is should allow him to have much better 2022.
I am very much in favor of signing Trey to a two year contract or a one year with an option year. That way he is not a rental player this season and if he has a good 1st half that probably raise his value at the deadline or even over next winter.
It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value.
Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115. Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+. This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games. I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm.
David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm. He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons. Mancini will be 30 this year.
Then you have a guy like Wil Myers who had a 110 OPS+ through 2016 including 115 OPS+ that year, and signed for 6/$83 mm including $22.5 mm/yr for three FA years.
Mark Trumbo had a career 113 OPS+ and was coming off his 47 homer, 122 OPS+ campaign when he signed for 3/$37.5 mm with the O’s. Not clear he could have got close to that elsewhere.
Long and short, Mancini is in a sort of in-betweenish spot, and how he does in 2022 will matter a lot to his FA value.