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  1. 8 points
    There is some sentiment that Maikol Hernandez could end up being one of the better prospects in this J2 class. He is just not as polished as some of the higher ranked SS’s. A 6-03 175 lb. SS, who gets some comparisons to Correa and ARod for his smoothness, arm and power potential. Mostly a line drive hitter, gap to gap, at present. And Basallo is the highest rated catcher in the DR. A LH hitting catcher at 6-03 200 lbs, he has a very strong arm and a power bat. There is some concern that he outgrows catcher down the line. There are a few more signings around the level of the highest ones in 2019, bonuses in the the $400k plus range. One is a LH power hitting corner OF, the name escapes me at the moment. The first two generally rank in the top 30-35 in BA and MLB. Overall, from what I have read, it is a well regarded class with the top group being their best prospects in a long time to sign internationally. And that is BA’s Ben Badler and the MLB guy, Jesse Sanchez, saying that. If that is bargain bin stuff, sign me up. Koby Perez has stated that next year’s class is going to be where they make a big splash as most of the top guys have been committed for two years. I think they have done an outstanding job establishing relationships and credibility thus far.
  2. 5 points
    You posted this under Orioles Talk instead of MLB by mistake.
  3. 5 points
    Earl Weaver's philosophy was you look for what players can do, not what the can't. That is why John Lowenstein played vs right-handed pitching and not lefties. Why Benny Ayala was on the team to hit though he was poor defensively. Why Terry Crowley pinch hit. Why Dempsey caught though he was not a great hitter and why Belanger was at SS though he rarely hit. Earl would say there are few players that could do it all. But there are players that can excel in some areas and help the team. Rutschman is probably going to catch 120-130 games a year. The backup catcher is going to play once a week or so. He is going to get sporadic at bats which in not conducive to a high batting average. The most important skills for that kind of backup catcher IMO is that he able to work well with a pitching staff, be a good defensive catcher, be able to control the running a game and if there are some spots that he is better off hitting, find those spot to play him. Ciuffo was the Rays defensive minor leaguer of the year twice. The Rays have a good minor league system. He has the arm to control the running team. He hit righties better than lefties at AAA. I don't know how he works with the pitching staff or calls a game but I would think a defensive catcher would be pretty good at that. He is relatively young at 26, will be cheap for many years as a backup catcher and has 3 options. From sit behind a computer he looks like a fit for the O's backup catcher role in the future. I have never seen him play and don't know him well enough to be sure. So time will tell. Glad they signed him.
  4. 4 points
    First of all, I think I speak for a lot of posters when I say that I love your writing voice. A lot of times I read posts without really looking first at who wrote them. I’ll be reading one of yours and think to myself, “only OrioleDog would put it that way.” And then I’ll look and confirm it. And I’m invariably correct. Second, that’s an interesting comparison. I’ll only add that I’d bet if you looked at his own decade, Bedard’s K/9 would rank much better than 32nd, as K/9 is an ever-growing phenomenon. I fully agree that the health of Baumann’s elbow will be a huge factor in 2021.
  5. 4 points
    I like to check in on this every once in a while. Before the 2016 season, Fantex bought 10% of Jonathan Schoop’s future income for $4.9 mm. Since then, Schoop has earned about $22 mm, which would have been about $26 mm but for the pandemic. Schoop is entering his age 29 season, and the last 3 years his salaries have been $8.5 mm (Arb 2), $7.5 mm (FA after being nontendered), and $6.1 mm (FA)(but reduced to $2.25 mm due to the pandemic). To turn a profit for Fantex, Schoop will need to earn in excess of another $27 mm before he retires. I think it’s going to be tough for Schoop to earn another $27 mm in his career, though he’s still a very solid player right now. So I’m guessing he will turn out to be a losing proposition for Fantex, especially considering the time value of money. Meanwhile, the Fantex model didn’t really pan out. They were publicly traded for a while, but delisted and are just winding down their investments.
  6. 3 points
    I have been in Branden's corner since he signed. We graduated from the same high school many, many years apart. Sorry to see him give it up. I thought he could make it as a reliever. But I guess at 29 his options became limited with MLB organizations.
  7. 3 points
    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/12/director-of-player-development-matt-blood-on-players-skipping-levels.html Asked about whether Orioles players would be skipping levels next year: “It’s going to be a case-by-case basis,” said Blood. “But there are definitely players that made jumps this year and are ready for a challenge. I feel like our philosophy is, we want to continue to challenge players. We want to put them in environments where they are challenged. And if they have already surpassed, in our evaluation, a certain level, we want to move them to the next level so they are continually building skills.” So, Can_of_corn, what say you?
  8. 3 points
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-diminishing-but-positive-returns-of-tanking/ Thia article suggests tanking works, but the strategy becomes less effective when multiple teams are doing it. Seems like the divide comes at 5+ teams tanking at once.
  9. 3 points
    A long time ago Bill James made a list of criteria to subjectively judge the quality of a league and help judge if it meets major league standards. I think it was part of an article showing that the 1884 Union Association was major league in the same way your local high school team is in the majors. I couldn't find that, but earlier this year I made up my own for some other purpose. I think it would be useful to go through this for the Negro Leagues that have been elevated to MLB status: 1. How well are the players paid compared to an average US worker? Probably okay, but nowhere near a MLB player of that era. 2. Are the stadiums temporary, more permanent, and are they shared with other activities? Are they $billion cathedrals, or bleachers thrown up last Thursday? All over the place. They played in MLB parks like Griffith Stadium and the Polo Grounds, but also little ramshackle places. 3. How organized is scouting compared to 2020? Not well at all. 4. What is the average attendance? All over the place. Some games sold out MLB stadiums. I'm sure others had dozens of fans. 5. What kind of cities does the league represent? The biggest cities, just smaller towns, or a mix? Geographically constrained, or country-wide? Mostly MLB cities in the East. But comparable to the AL/NL in most cases. 6. What population base does the player pool draw from? Do substantial numbers of young people strive to be in this league? Similar to the MLBs, but of course African Americans were 10% of the population. They also drew from Latin America and the Carribbean earlier and more often than the majors. I'd assume young kids wanted badly to play with Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige. 7. How does the league collect, process, and use information technology? Compared to today barely at all. Compared to the majors of the era... somewhat worse due to limited resources? 8. How well does the transportation infrastructure support the league? Pretty well, except that buses and trains were segregated which I'm sure was a limiting factor and it sucked. 9. What is the pipeline from amateur ranks to this league look like? Multiple organized steps, high school kids going straight to the league, or some kind of a mix? I don't think the Negro Leagues had minor league affiliates, or if they did it wasn't nearly to the extent the majors did by the 1940s. It was common for teenagers to sign directly with Negro League teams. 10. Are front offices robust, or threadbare? Trending more towards threadbare. 11. What is the coverage in the media like? In the African American press pretty robust. Some coverage in mainstream papers. 12. What percentage of the best players in the world play in this league? Based on 1960 percentages I'd say 30%, give or take. 13. What is the spread in age? Are there a lot of teenagers and/or 40-somethings in the league? It was commonplace for 18-year-olds to be on the field with 46-year-olds. This is a fairly big hit on Negro League quality of play. There were guys in their mid-to-late-40s hitting over .300 and playing regularly. That's not a sign of a major league as we understand it today. It's what you might see in 1895. Apparently Hank Aaron won the batting title in 1951 at the age of 17, of course after many players had left the league to join the MLBers and affiliates. 14. How long has the league existed? Before 1920 the Negro Leagues were pretty disorganized, with many independent clubs. They lasted in some form or another until about 1960, but really tailed off starting in 1948. Which is probably why they decided to grant MLB status to 1920-48, even if that is an oversimplification. 15. What is the spread in talent? You had inner circle HOFers playing alongside 16-year-old kids, and guys who'd be in A ball in an affiliated setting. So very wide. Similar to the Japanese Leagues, or 19th century baseball. 16. What is the spread in results at a team level? Much wider than today. Picking a random year... 1925 Eastern Colored League. Hilldale went 53-18-1 (.746), Lincoln Giants went 7-41 (.146). 17. What was scheduling like? From my perspective, weird and random. Teams often didn't play nearly the same schedule or number of games in the same league. It appears teams showed up and dropped out in mid-season pretty frequently. Official schedules were 40, 60, 80 games, rarely longer than that. And teams filled in the schedule playing many exhibitions and barnstorming games. Apparently some teams played 200+ games, but only a small percentage were league games. Many similarities to 19th century MLB.
  10. 2 points
    It's an outfield camp, hence the word "mini" and not full camp See this thread
  11. 2 points
    OH has Baumann 7, Westburg 8. BA has Baumann 8, Westburg outside the top 10. MLB.com has Westburg 7, Baumann 9. So, they’re rated pretty close and I don’t know that I’d say either is underrated. Meanwhile from Trezza: Is there a prospect you've heard the team talk up who isn't spoken about much nationally? -- Waj The answer here is shortstop Gunnar Henderson, the O’s No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. The Orioles love what Henderson, their supplemental-round pick in 2019, showed them in controlled environments this spring and summer, often impressing against pitchers significantly older than him. He handled everything thrown at him, according to people who were there, even showing enough athleticism to hold his own in center field at times. It’s not difficult to see why Henderson, 19, excites the O’s development people. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, he's big. As a former Alabama All-State basketball player, he's athletic. And he can flat-out play, with impressive (and improving) raw power for his age and one of the system’s strongest throwing arms. At this point, Henderson might have more upside than any O’s position player prospect not named Adley Rutschman. https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-prospects-young-talent-ready-for-2021
  12. 2 points
    Funny you say this, because I'd say the exact same thing, just a few years later. We were shopping Bedard around the time my oldest brother passed away very unexpectedly, and he was the only other big Orioles fan in my life. I found this board to get better Orioles news and started to join the message board conversations shortly after. Erik Bedard news absolutely drew me into this site, and I'll always remember it that way. I'm not sure what was the craziest time on the OH: the Bedard Trade or Courting Mark Teixeira. Both were riddled with "insider info" on a daily basis, but Teixeira was probably crazier.
  13. 2 points
    The biggest driver of will next year's lists go up or down is if Rutschman is on or off them. I hope all the Drew Roms become the best versions of themselves, but doubt if even a bunch of development wins of regular decent prospects can offset the presence or absence of your franchise guy. We'll see if Kjerstad starts walking a Jay Bruce or Billy Rowell path. A respectable Mancini/Severino/Sisco trade could move the needle. If it gets to the point we're punting '22 also, I think finding Trey a decent team is a kindness this July. You can always Bordick bring him back in '23 if he's good enough for that team then. I certainly hope ownership's evaluation as Elias's 1st contract winds down won't be so facile as to pass out Exceeds Expectations if an Adley Hoard results in the Orioles being pronounced "baseball's #1 farm system" a year from now.
  14. 2 points
    When are people going to understand that this isn’t the NFL or the NBA. One or 2 players doesn’t turn around a franchise. If that was the case, the Angels would be a great team but they suck. Look at the Dodgers. Where do they draft every year? Yet somehow they end up with a great farm system. Why? Because they scout well, they draft and develop well, they invest internationally, etc...and they do all of that while winning their division every year. So no, you don’t need high picks to be really good. You just need to know what the hell you are doing. Teams have completely fooled fan bases into thinking you have to suck for 4-5 years. Everyone falls for it hook line and sinker and why? Because they can point to some fallacy that it worked before and people buy it. But that’s not reality. Tanking for a year or 2 is great. Get those few high picks, dump as much salary as you can and rebuild your system as fast as you can. The Rockies should be doing this right now, for example. They aren’t going anywhere and are very far behind LA and SD. They should get rid of the Arenado deal before his inevitable decline. Trade Marquez for a good return, try to dump Blackmon, etc...that’s what you do if you are then. Suck it up for a few years, rebuild and then start trying to be good again. You don’t need some 4+ year cycle. The Astros sucked for 3 years and then they won 70 games and then they were a playoff contender after that. They didn’t have to have 3 straight seasons of winning 53ish games. The Os should be fielding a team in 2021 that can win 75+ games and be ready to contend for a WC spot in 2022. While it’s possible that is still the case, because of their young talent, they should be supplementing those guys now. There is enough out there to be had to improve the rotation, add a back end arm of the pen and improve the left side of the IF. No excuse not to get those things done.
  15. 2 points
    You probably didn't laugh in The Naked Gun where the tiger mauled the outfielder either. And Mel Allen said "How About That!"
  16. 2 points
    Did Shaw catch a fly ball with the top of his head? Asking for a friend.
  17. 2 points
    If your complaint is about Naked-Midget-Wrestling-Video advertising... you should probably clear your browser history before visiting a website with custom targeted ads. 🤣 Don't ask me how I know
  18. 1 point
    We still have our chance to sign Bauer, LeMahieu and Colome and win the series next year
  19. 1 point
    He can play above average defense, pinch run, and bunt. I’m not saying he is the best 4th OF in the world but he has plenty to offer a good team. He just isn’t an every day type of player. I feel like you’re being overly negative on his skill set.
  20. 1 point
    That’s why I wanted to see them add a real piece or 2 now. OrioleDog made a point that said whenever GROd/Hall/Kremer/Baumann/Akin make 5 straight starts. Do you know how unlikely that is? We are sitting here just waiting and assuming, that these prospects are going to be good MLers and that everything will be fine. When does that happen? The upside is certainly there for it to happen but you could probably say that about a lot of teams.
  21. 1 point
    A Hays, Mullins, Santander OF is actually pretty nice defensively. Put Mancini at 1B and Mountcastle at DH and maybe figure out something else for CF when playing a lefty and I feel like it’s a good approach. That all depends on how well Mullins can hit. I’d be okay with a low bar set for him offensively though as long as his defense is above average.
  22. 1 point
    Well, he says “contend for a division title.” Did the O’s contend for a division title in 2012? Yes. 2016? More debatable, but we were a game out of the division lead with 17 games to play. Now, if you think Tampa or the Yankees are going to win 100 games in 2022, no I don’t think we are a contender to do that. But after watching the O’s go from 69-93 to 93-69 in 2012, I was reminded that sometimes change comes faster than you’d expect.
  23. 1 point
    Free agent right-hander Collin McHugh will throw in front of interested teams on January 16, reports Jake Kaplan of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 33-year-old opted out of the 2020 season after failing to recuperate as hoped from a December 2019 elbow surgery. However, McHugh is again drawing interest from teams after recovering from that procedure, Kaplan notes. The former Astro had plenty of success from 2015-18, working in both a starting and relief role. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/free-agency-notes-mchugh-tigers-sugano-red-sox.html
  24. 1 point
    Ding, ding, ding. Some here are fed up with the losing on purpose - I'm curious as actual transactions begin happening at an expected rate of maybe 3 per day the next few weeks if folks would consider the Orioles not hopping on the Robbie Grossmans of the world (pitchers or infield equivalents): A. wise or at least understandable strategic moves B. inaccuracies C. blunders I'm good with 2021 as our last development year, so don't care right wrong or indifferent about any 1-year contracts now, but am interested in how what I see as our 2022 wildcard competition buys 2022 players in this depressed market. I don't care about Grossman but there are players a little better where if they sell their 2022's cheap to "not us", I would find that...bothersome.
  25. 1 point
    Great work as always! I am curious to see what impact the new technology (track man, etc...) deployed down there and the increased tournament/showcase events will have on the accuracy of evaluations and success rates of teams signings. Things have changed tremendously in the past 5-6 years in how players are measured and evaluated. Also, teams have put much more into infrastructure and player development internationally. They have revamped the nutritional intake of players and the strength and conditioning programs. They have made a much greater effort to educate the players in many facets of life in the US, including teaching them English. All of these initiatives may help the success rate of international signings and help the teams spend money more wisely. It’s one theory anyway.
  26. 1 point
    I think labeling it the "sock it away" theory misses the mark a bit, or doesn't accurately describe what I (and others) believe may be going on. It's not that these dollars are specifically being put away in a vault to be withdrawn at a later date, Rather, I think it's better described as follows. Note that I am using made up numbers and deliberately oversimplifying team economics (also ignoring growth/inflation, etc.) in order to have a more straightforward discussion. Let's assume revenue net of all non-ML player expenses is $120M (let's also assume this is fixed) In order to make an acceptable economic profit from the team, ownership needs to make $30M annually in profit after all expenses If the team runs a payroll of $50M in 2021, then profit to ownership is $70M, $40M more than required in a given year In exchange for these savings in rebuilding years, ownership may be willing to go all the way up to the $120M "budget" mentioned in point one, or even significantly exceed it going into a loss during competitive years Dollars spent in competitive years create more utility on both the baseball side and business side of the organization than during the rebuilding years On the baseball side, those dollars spent accumulating WAR have a much stronger marginal impact on playoff/WS odds (i.e., going from 90 to 95 wins is far more valuable than 65 to 70) On the business side, those dollar spent improving the product can be considered a brand-building investment, whereas adding a couple relatively expensive veterans to a bad team don't do much to move the needle in attracting fans over seeing the young guys develop Ultimately, I think it's more appropriate to think of it as trading unproductive dollars today for more productive dollars tomorrow, rather than "socked away."
  27. 1 point
    I appreciate you conceding the point, it's a relatively rare thing in an online debate. One more point on Cruz. In his 20s he was tied for 741st all time in homers. Fewer than Rafeal Furcal, or Chris Hoiles or Nate McLouth. Well behind Ty Wigginton and Disco Dan Ford. He had fewer homers than Hugh Duffy, who played his entire career in the 1800s when you could lead the league with 11 homers. Since he turned 30 he has more homers than Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. More than Arod or any number of PED era sluggers like Steve Finley and Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa. More than Eddie and Yaz, Franks Thomas and Robinson. More than all but nine players, ever. And his top six performances in that last timeframe have come since he turned 33. So not just his 30s, but his mid-to-late 30s. The only players to hit more homers than Cruz from 33-39 were Bonds, Ruth, Raffy, and Aaron. Betting on that happening is certifiably crazy.
  28. 1 point
    I don't know whether there will be a ownership change or not. But I have not seen anything from John Angelos that is not positive. He picked a good VP of Baseball Operations in Mike Elias. He has allowed Elias to hire the team he wants without interference from what I can tell. He has spent on infrastructure with analytics. He has spend on the draft. He has spent on the team to scout internationally. As far as not spending on free agents, that was never the plan at this point according Elias. Tear it down. Get younger with as many talented players as possible. SG wants to spend now. That is a different plan from what Elias has put forward. And its Elias that is running the show. He wants to accumulate more talent before flipping the switch. The real test on spending comes next off season. Rutschman will be in the majors in 2022. That will be the time to put a team around him that can win. Cobb will be off the books. Davis will probably take a pay out once Elias knows how long the 2022 season will be. That will be the time to add through free agency or trades. Elias has the patience to complete the rebuild and build a winner. Some fans don't. But that is just blowing in the wind, because Elias has the power and John Angelos seems to be on board with the approach.
  29. 1 point
    Because Tony locked that one. My guess is this one will get locked too.
  30. 1 point
    And extending the rebuild period keeps payroll lower.
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    If he hadn't of had the physical issue that caused the Astros to not sign him he very well might not have been a "miserable failure". The Astros had no way of knowing that the issue existed when they selected him.
  33. 1 point
    I think that two seasons of tanking after the initial disastrous season should have been plenty and that folks should be being promoted to see what they can do at the ML level.
  34. 1 point
    Not needed. There is no longer a need to do what they are doing. They are just stealing from the fans at this point. You have a thread asking what are the chances they add this player or that player knowing full well whoever that player is will be garbage and cost nothing. We shouldn’t be having that discussion anymore. There is no need to bring on those types of players at this point. We should have a far more watchable product.
  35. 1 point
    It’s absurd to think the O’s couldn’t find someone better than Martin or McCoy. They certainly did last year. I’m hoping the 2021 version of Martin is better than the sub-replacement level 2019 version, but that’s just based on pure hope, not evidence. Will the O’s be a bad team either way? Sure. But there’s a difference between bad and uncompetitive.
  36. 1 point
    Hope you all had a very Merry Christmas!!!
  37. 1 point
    I think lunch-pail guy is a good descriptor.... here's a quote from a Sports Illustrated article about Merv Rettenmund from October 4, 1971 (coincidentally, my 9th birthday, and the exact day I found out I'd be seeing the Orioles play the Tokyo Giants in Tokyo a few weeks later!) "At a time when rebellion is fashionable, even at the old ball park, Merv Rettenmund is an organization man. He seldom grumbles, rarely gripes. He admires his teammates, obeys his manager, respects his owner. He is the compleat ballplayer: a hitter, a runner, a thrower. He will give you—oh Lord—nine innings of baseball." https://vault.si.com/vault/1971/10/04/well-hes-that-kind-of-guy
  38. 1 point
    Sad. The behavior of the mom and just as bad, the kid being proud of it.
  39. 1 point
    Why wouldn't we do what we just did? Forget Iglesias production and price tag, he wasn't a long term asset and he was attractive to another team. Why not deal him for some C-C+ prospects and repeat process when the SS carousel has more candidates than open seats? I don't get the criticism or why folks think it was a payroll-based move. Elias is creating prospects for us from thin air - almost last SS available guys. Elias, like what he watched develop in Houston, is laser focused on gathering as many prospects as he can at the cost of wins on the major league roster - until he decides it is time to make the major league team competitive.
  40. 1 point
    I'm off Paxton too now that he's dilly-dallied three months trying to whistle past the graveyard. I hope for his health as with any player but he's taken himself out of the 2022 sweetspot.
  41. 1 point
    I'm curious to see if this was specifically towards Gunnar, based on all of the ravings previously bestowed upon him. I'm wondering if he starts at Bowie or goes to Aberdeen for a month or two then Bowie. It would be nice to see an actual young player going up the chain to reach the majors before he's 24.
  42. 1 point
    Obviously, I know this is tongue in cheek. However, the creator of ZiPS, Dave Szymborski, has made it clear numerous times that ZiPS is a mathematical algorithm and he doesn’t adjust the results for individual players even when he thinks they are off base. And he is a Baltimore native. I’ll be interested to read his next chat to see if he gets asked where he thinks ZiPS got the O’s wrong. Personally, assuming a relatively healthy season, I’ll be shocked if Means doesn’t do much better than a 4.90 ERA, and I’ll be pretty disappointed if .748 OPS is the best Hays can do. In general I think the ERA projections are awfully high. The offense projections are in the ballpark.
  43. 1 point
    I know, but Trumbo has one of the more glaring splits I can remember. Mancini has (albeit in a much shorter career) has a career .819 OPS but .871 at DH. Again it's only 234 career PA's at DH, so give it time and it will likely go down. Unless MC completely embarrasses himself in LF, the O's should give him every chance before casting MC as a 1B/DH.
  44. 1 point
    Oriole Park burned up like a tinderbox. Now I understand why my grandfather made a big deal about it.
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    These two statements are similar but honestly could be miles apart. I agree that ownership hasn't earned faith of fans, but you do not have to be an economist to understand the that losses in 2020 are real not just less income for all teams.
  47. 1 point
    Well sure, but I'm arguing that they likely don't have enough of that information yet. Perhaps on Diaz. Not on Kjerstad. If you bring in Nunez, you don't replace Santander's offense, you replace whoever we have playing DH's offense. That is Stewart/Mancini/Mountcastle/other. If any of those guys go to the OF, the defense just got worse. And I'm with you on Nunez in theory, but not as it relates to Santander.
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    I do not devote as much of my life to Orioles things as many of you do, but I do have literally 75 years of following baseball and a number of teams in both leagues. Started when my uncle took me to my first baseball game. Browns vs Yankees. I do not know how good Means is going to get, but I believe he has not reached his upside yet. He appears to be bright, with an excellent work ethic, and seems to always be trying to improve his pitching. I really like the fact that his velocity ticked up recently which shows me he is still improving. To me it is not important if he could someday be a Tor on some better team, but that he might be a Tor on the Orioles team. I think he is close to that, not very high bar right now. Hope he keeps being hungry and the learning continues.
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