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Showing content with the highest reputation since 6/11/2020 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    I think you're playing a little fast and loose with taxonomy. The family bovidae for example includes sheep, goats, musk oxen, a variety of antelopes and Elsie the cow. I advise you to not mistake a musk ox for Elsie as you stumble out bed on your way to do your morning milking. In something as dangerous as COVID-19 is proving to be, distinctions matter.
  2. 6 points
    Nobody is claiming that signing amount didn’t factor in. They are suggesting that it’s possible ME thinks he can have his cake and eat it too. Drafting/Signing a player with comparable talent AND having more money to work with. to put it simply, he signed player A for ~$2M less than he would have player B. He thinks the difference between players A and B is far less than 2M
  3. 6 points
    This guy would be perfect if the L and M were switched
  4. 5 points
    That really hampers what you can do the rest of the draft. To me you only do that if Martin was the no. 1 guy on your board and you feel blessed that you got him at 2.
  5. 5 points
    I will go to my grave holding fast to the idea that signing a 34-year-old DH to a four-year contract is a dumb thing to do. And signing injured fan favorites who's OPSing .700 as an everyday right fielder might feel good, but won't do anything to help your push to the playoffs. If I had both those choices to do over I'd make the same call.
  6. 4 points
    Yes they know where they’re ranked. That’s why you can say “Hey, we want to take you at 2. We see you’re ranked at around 10. So we’ll pay you slot for 7 and call it a day, good?” You can do this because he’s afraid if he doesn’t agree he will fall to 9 or 10. Even if you think he’s really #2 you can do this. This works best when you think the market undervalues the guy you love.
  7. 4 points
    The great thing about it, he looks like a powerful left handed hitter. This is rare.
  8. 4 points
    Sorry this is classic hindsight. There was plenty of reason not to keep Cruz. Markakis has had exactly one excellent half a season since he left. The problem isn't the people they let go, it's the people they kept.
  9. 4 points
  10. 4 points
    Not sure if this was mentioned but Elias and Sig put a high emphasis on USA baseball team results. For the 2019 team: kjerstad Avg. 396. Oba .426. Slg 691. Ops 1117 at bats 47 martin. 250/. 321 / 396. Ops 717. At bats 48 Maybe this is a good side by side comparison.
  11. 4 points
    “First round talent” is one of those phrases that means different things to different people. No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer was chosen in the 34th round out of high school - was he not a “first round talent” then? Asa Lacy (no. 4) - 31st round. Emerson Hancock (no. 6) - 38th. So I think in many cases, calling a high schooler a “first round talent” means he’s someone who would have a good chance of being drafted in the first round if they went to college for three years and developed as expected. Then there are guys who slip due to money concerns, or who are very talented but have injury concerns. Lots of ways to look at it. For me, I’m happy to call our two late picks second round talents, if it makes people feel better. And there is plenty of pitching talent in our minor league system. We are above average on that front. The real problem is that our major league pitching is terrible so it’s not like the rising minor leaguers just need to fill in a couple of holes.
  12. 4 points
    I too was extremely disappointed to see both Bitsko and Walker gone by 30. Not sure I saw any mock with that scenario. I think our draft room was probably when the BoSox popped the HS 2B in the first round. At the time, it seemed pretty obvious that Crowe-Armstrong, Mitchell, Sabata, Wells and Soderstrom would be taken before 30, and I believe there is a good chance we would have taken one from Walker, Bitsko, Miller, Shuster, Jarvis and Cavalli. I think our draft room probably felt comfortable with our possible choices at 30, esp with speculation that the LAD would taken a position player in multiple mocks I saw. As with most here, I probably would have taken Martin and then chosen from among Bleeter, McMahon, Van Eyk and Fulton at 30/39 and then taken Petey Halpin at 74. Not sure what other $ would have been available after that or if I would have had to take senior signs in the fourth and fifth rounds. Greg, you contribution to the OH for the 2020 draft has been outstanding - probably the best among posters. Well done!
  13. 4 points
    Quick, hack Elias' radar and make Wilcox a subpar college outfielder.
  14. 4 points
    Westburg is an interesting pick in that he's never really put up the college numbers that a Elias/Sig college pick generally has put up. He's a guy with a plus raw power grade who has never been able to take it onto the field, and that's concerning a little bit. He's also a fairly aggressive hitter who in several scouting videos was seen chasing sliders away and watching inside fastballs for strike three which could suggest some guessing. Defensively, although scouting reports seem to indicate he has enough arm to stay at SS, the videos I watched did not show plus arm a strength and at 6-3 and nearly 200 pounds right now, the question is whether he will outgrow SS and end up at 3B. It actually appears his best profile in my limited looks could be a Jonathan Schoop like second baseman. Elias and his staff have seen a ton more than me on this guy so I will hope their looks suggest he can stick at SS, or will hit for enough game power to play 3B. I have concerns about his plate discipline and pitch recognition based on some limited video work. If he can stick at shortstop than I like this pick more, particularly if he's going to be able to tap into his raw power more after some development.
  15. 3 points
    After he fell to the fifth pick and had to wait weeks.
  16. 3 points
    You’re correct. It was Stargell. I played a game on Sporcle last week and I thought that Aaron had done it. Not true. He led the NL in the 60s. Going back and looking at it, Aaron had the most homers over the course of the 60 and 70s, but not the 70s alone. 20s Ruth 30s Foxx 40s Williams 50s Snider 60s Killebrew 70s Stargell 80s Schmidt 90s McGwire 00s Rodriguez 10s Cruz
  17. 3 points
    Pretty sure @atomic blocked me after I didn't agree that the NWSL should take over the Orioles spot at Camden Yards
  18. 3 points
    The Padres went underslot with their first pick and got Cole Wilcox in the third round. The Nats went underslot in the fourth and fifth round and got Cole Henry in the second round. The Mets went underslot in the 3rd and 5th to get J.T Ginn in the second round (and exceeded their pool by $324K). The White Sox went underslot in the third, fourth AND fifth to add Jared Kelley in the second round. The Orioles went underslot and signed Mayo and Baumler but will likely leave $300K+ on the board. Of the 13 teams that have signed all their draft picks, per Sportrac, only the Braves ($131,000) and Mariners ($304,400) have left more than $7,300 of their pool unspent. 7 teams exceeded their pool. If the Orioles sign Servideo at slot it is either (1) an indication of cheapness, (2) a screw-up in drafting philosophy and/or knowing what it would take to sign draftees, (3) a belief that the Orioles have some hidden insight in scouting and are better at recognizing talent than the other 29 teams, or (4) a combination of the above.
  19. 3 points
    Will air on MLB Network tomorrow, starting with game 1 at 7:00 AM. From 7AM to 6PM.
  20. 3 points
    I think maybe they had their eye on someone with the first round compensatory pick who might have been a bit more expensive than Westberg, but that player didnt last until that pick.
  21. 3 points
    Why wouldn't they have that conversation? Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot? It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent. Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years! That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.
  22. 3 points
    I'm sure you're aware that in three-plus MLB seasons Benintendi is already at or above the median value of a #2 overall pick. He will almost certainly be worth more than 80% of #2 picks when all is said and done. People want every high pick to be a cornerstone, but reality is more like 10%. The draft has been going on since 1965, and you know how many HOFers have been taken #2? One, Reggie Jackson, in 1966. The third-best #2 ever is Will Clark, 4th is JD Drew. Greg Swindell and Lloyd Moseby are in the top 10%.
  23. 3 points
    Great post. I wish I had written it!
  24. 3 points
    Yes, but being on the taxi squad won't accrue service time. Only the subset of guys on the taxi squad that actually get promoted to the ML roster due to injury would accrue any service time. Maybe 10 of those guys tops. That still leaves 20 spots where you can put a Rutschman or GRod or Hall and get to see them playing intrasquad games under team control in Bowie or Aberdeen. I see no reason the O's won't do this like any other team would.
  25. 3 points
    This underscores what very few on either side of this debate are saying. This virus is going to run it's course no matter what us mere humans do. Masks and social distancing were NOT EVER meant to stop the virus. They were simply meant to slow the explosion of cases that could and would happen in a normal virus situation if it went unchecked. So that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed with cases like Italy and other places were. Unless we truly can find a bona fide cure, this virus is stronger than humans. Viruses and bacteria were among the VERY first organisms to evolve on this planet. They will be one of the last to go extinct.
  26. 3 points
    The Orioles traded with the same team your Ravens did in your hypothetical situation.
  27. 3 points
    You are too smart to go off case numbers when testing is now widely available. As the positive cases go up, you will suddenly notice the death and hospital rates plummet because this thing affects people differently, just like a flu. Many more people had this thing then has ever been reported which means the death and hospitalization rates were way over blown as people were hellbent on making this more serious than it was. Regardless, no one will convince me this is anything more than a negotiating tactic. I will also say I believe it's your God given right to be a fearful/careful as you want. For people scared, or want to wear masks everywhere, or want to hunker down, please do so. I'm not going to get into politics here, but clearly most of the people so scare over COVID suddenly lost their concern for a couple of weeks.
  28. 3 points
    Like a whole lot of things...this is not an issue where one side is right and the other is not. There is more than enough blame and greed to go around here. And in fairness, both sides have merit to their arguments. The issue here is neither side is committed to the game. They are committed to beating the other side. Its a very familiar bad tale....
  29. 3 points
    https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2020/6/15/prospects-live-in-depth-mlb-draft-grades Interesting.
  30. 3 points
    LOL, "your two cents"... I'm pretty sure you are at about 17,846 cents right now.
  31. 3 points
    Ryan Watson appears to have good size 6-5, 215 and a low 90s fastball. Senior at Auburn who has come out of the pen most of his career. Good start to the season in 2020 with limited sample size. 7 app/7.1 IP/1.23 era/.160 BAA/7 K/1 BB hard to find much info on him beyond that, other than that he was a previous late round draftee who elected to go to Auburn
  32. 3 points
    I'm not so sure about that. It was reported that KC was talking to Kjerstad the morning of the draft regarding the #4 pick. KC then passed on Martin when he was surprisingly available to them. Connecting the dots, KC may well have had Kjerstad higher on their board than Martin. I'm sure KC would have done their homework on Martin, since it was certainly possible for the Orioles to take Gonzales and Miami to take Lacy, based on numerous reports concerning those teams and players. I think it is possible that teams that did a lot of work on Martin may have viewed Martin as strictly a 2B in the big leagues and just didn't put him in the top 4 or 5 of the draft. Heck, playing devils' advocate, it seems possible to me that Toronto hadn't really looked all that deeply into Martin, as much the teams ahead of them may have, since they may have felt it was a foregone conclusion that he would be gone before they were on the clock. Seems like just about every iteration of mock drafts had Martin either 1, 2, 3, or 4. Who knows, maybe Kjerstad was the Blue Jays' guy and we blew up their board. Maybe faced with a decision that had to be made in 5 minutes they just went with the guy that was the internet consensus. Point is, we really don't know what MLB teams thought of either Kjerstad or Martin, and I think it is fair to say that Toronto probably didn't base their preparations on taking Martin at 1.5. Is it possible that Martin turns out to be the best pick of the draft? Sure! But just maybe it will turn out being Kjerstad! Hey, I can dream, can't I?
  33. 3 points
  34. 3 points
    Saying that someone is more athletic than another player doesn't necessarily mean they are a better prospect.
  35. 2 points
    Full schedule https://www.mlb.com/orioles/schedule/2020-07/list
  36. 2 points
  37. 2 points
    So who then? Westburg signed for slot $2.365M. Who should they have taken instead that cost more? Loftin was 2 picks later for $3M. Fangraphs had them ranked back to back with Westburg higher, so we can't really say they took a lesser guy to be cheap. Wilcox, Kelley, and Ginn signed for $3.3M, $3M, and $2.9M. That's a lot more, and our extra couple 100k wouldn't get there. Kyle Harrison signed for $2.5M, but was rated far lower than Westburg by everybody. That's it who signed above and was drafted after Westburg so far, that I saw. I haven't seen Fulton reported but he's supposed to be over slot--I can see this org shying away from an injured guy though. Anyway, if they wanted any of those guys they could have had them and still not spent all the money, by simply taking them instead of Haskin for $1.9 and not signing Baumler or Mayo. Neither of those guys were a sure thing when they drafted Haskin, it would have been reasonable to just use that extra money set aside for Baumler right then and there if they loved Wilcox. Or take Wilcox instead of Servideo and then just forget about Mayo and Baumler. A lot of fans would have been thrilled with Wilcox instead of Haskin plus a senior sign in the 5th. Apparently they didn't love Wilcox, or they simply preferred Haskin plus another overslot chance later. Maybe they should have taken Casey Martin instead of Servideo. I can buy that, though he did strike out over 30% of the time this year and some think he'll leave short for CF, but it's impossible to say without knowing their board. They must have seen a lot of Martin in scouting Kjerstad. But anyway, they clearly decided that for some people the small sample size was projectable and Servideo had a hell of a good small sample size, it's reasonable to say they just liked him. I can understand being wary based on this org's history, but it's hard to critique without a reason behind it. To do so is just making stuff up, just like I made some stuff up above about their preferences. It's also hard to critique not going over slot when they did go over slot, twice.
  38. 2 points
    It will take time to see the true colors of the sons. But, How can it possibly be worse than Peter was isn't really saying much!
  39. 2 points
    Cast in this unlikely role, ill equipped to act, with insufficient tact, one must put up barriers to keep oneself intact.
  40. 2 points
    I think the stabilization points of various numbers would be useful for this thread: “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics: 60 PA: Strikeout rate 120 PA: Walk rate 240 PA: HBP rate 290 PA: Single rate 1610 PA: XBH rate 170 PA: HR rate 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG 160 AB: ISO 80 BIP: GB rate 80 BIP: FB rate 600 BIP: LD rate 50 FBs: HR per FB 820 BIP: BABIP “Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics: 70 BF: Strikeout rate 170 BF: Walk rate 640 BF: HBP rate 670 BF: Single rate 1450 BF: XBH rate 1320 BF: HR rate 630 BF: AVG 540 BF: OBP 550 AB: SLG 630 AB: ISO 70 BIP: GB rate 70 BIP: FB rate 650 BIP: LD rate 400 FB: HR per FB 2000 BIP: BABIP I've bolded the numbers that are possible to obtain in a 60-game schedule. Most hitters aren't going to get a third of the way to a reliable BABIP, pitchers not even close to that. Really we should only be paying attention to Ks, BBs, HRs, GB/FB. Everything else is as much noise as anything.
  41. 2 points
    It's part of his master plan for the #1 pick in 2021.
  42. 2 points
    There you go, common ground! Enjoy your day.
  43. 2 points
    This is an excellent article about Curt Blefary....sad about the alcohol destroying his life, poignant that his ashes were scattered at the old Memorial Stadium site in 2001. An interesting tidbit in the article that I did not know was apparently Blefary and rookie Mike Epstein were being shopped by the Orioles in 1967 but they did not pull the trigger on a trade with the Cubs for Billy Williams. Blefary did ultimately get us Mike Cuellar which was also a very unbalanced trade for our side. "While Blefary was a better outfielder than Boog Powell, Baltimore entered 1967 with three left-handed sluggers, none of whom could help the team in the outfield. Mike Epstein, The Sporting News1966 Minor League Player of the Year, was a poor defensive first baseman. The Orioles sent him to the Florida Instructional League to learn left field. The experiment continued in spring training, but Blefary still got his at-bats. Hank Bauer tried him as a catcher after Powell accidentally stepped on backup catcher Charlie Lau’s toe. Blefary also experimented with switch-hitting. He had been a switch-hitter in high school. He asserted that he had more power right-handed. Presumably Bauer wasn’t impressed. Trade rumors, especially in the Sporting News, were rampant. Years later, Jim Palmer said the Cubs were willing to trade Billy Williams for Blefary and Epstein. Palmer claimed that owner Jerry Hoffberger told general manager Harry Dalton, “You can make that trade, but you’d better be right.”[fn]The Sporting News, February 2, 1998.[/fn] He would have been: Williams outlasted both much younger players and had the seasons that created the mold to cast his Hall of Fame bust in 1970 and 1972. The Sporting News also claimed that Dalton turned down offers from the White Sox for Bruce Howard or Joel Horlen for Blefary." https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/curt-blefary/
  44. 2 points
    It really does help make the best pie crust! 😏
  45. 2 points
    Guessing here but Tv money is why it won’t work. Also I think you are in the minority on it being a fun and exciting thing to watch.
  46. 2 points
    Overwhelmingly, I enjoyed the draft discussion here. I expect Kjerstad would as well - assuming he has the same folks on ignore that I do.
  47. 2 points
    The value of the Baumler pick was $422,300. It's believed we paid more. It's in the Des Moines Register. Story by Tommy Birch. Baumler did not disclose the terms.
  48. 2 points
    Comps are not based on expected outcomes. How many times must this be said? Comps are used to give you a feel for the type of player they are or could be. Here's how I interpreted that comp: Baumler is a thin projectable high school pitcher, with precocious command, who has a more athletic delivery and body. That's it.
  49. 2 points
    I typically don't do reevaluation of prospect lists after the draft, but once they sign I will, especially since it appears there will not be a minor league season.
  50. 2 points
    Those players that go undrafted are free agents and can sign with any team. Here is an article that rates the top ten organizations that have signed these types of players over the years. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-10-mlb-organizations-at-identifying-undrafted-free-agents/
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