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Showing content with the highest reputation on 1/10/2008 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    No to belabor, but this is exactly why the concept of regression to the mean is so important. link
  2. 1 point
    Last year, before the 2007 MLB Draft, I had made a comment roughly to the effect that it was my belief that regarding first-round picks, and especially high first-round picks, Hitters seemed to be the most likely choice to be successful ML'ers, in comparison to Pitchers. I also felt that H.S. Hitters were perhaps the best choice overall. The choices were: 1] High School Hitters 2] High School Pitchers 3] College Hitters 4] College Pitchers I decided that I had better do some research to determine if my recollection of past drafts were accurate, and did so. To conclude a pick's success or failure, I determined that I should use the most recent time period to use as a reference point, so I went back ten years and began with the 1997 draft. Moving forward, I collected data on the next five drafts as well, stopping at the 2002 draft, as the fairness of concluding one's success or failure was a bit premature beginning in '03, for many of the picks had not yet made the big leagues. The basis of what I determined as 'successful vs not' is simply opinion based and therefore subjective. Please download the attachment if you'd like to have my Excel spreadsheet, containing the research results for your own. The results showed, albeit in a small sample size, and using the top ten choices as a focal point, that indeed; hitters were far more likely to be successful when choosing a top-ten draft pick. 1] High School Hitters > 72% good picks 2] College Hitters > 57% good picks 3] High School Pitchers > 31% good picks 4] College Pitchers > 28% good picks These numbers may change, and likely would to some degree going back in time, however, it's my belief that scouts have more advantages than in years past. More tournaments, showcases, better equipment such as speed guns, scouting services to pull more resources from, and the advent of a new way of how to view talent (Moneyball, etc...) gives the modern scout an outstanding chance to determine the best talent out there. Why are hitters more likely to be successful? I think the answer lies in the underlying issues of being a stud pitcher, whether in High School or College. Overuse and overthrowing are the likely causes, as the extra stress on their young arms often is evident within a few years of being drafted. Tommy John and other surgeries abound, and some of these youngsters are never the same. Another reason, and one that is just as likely as injury is that these youngsters never learn how to pitch. They never develop the skill to have command, or cannot master the all-important need for secondary pitches. Throwing 95 mph is great and certainly cannot be taught, but taking a pitcher who throws hard and may someday be able to harness his talents, is walking on thin ice. There are great early first round success stories among pitchers, that cannot be and is not being debated, but taking a hitter appears to be a much safer way to early-pick success. Draft Research.xls Draft Research.xls Draft Research.xls
  3. 1 point
    I prefer to think of it as a "fascinating mystery" ;-) However, I completely agree that the apparent-facts just don't add up. You can have any theory you want, but one thing we know for sure is that it just doesn't add up.
  4. 1 point
    I'll assume you don't mean this in any sexual kind of way!
  5. 1 point
    Nice. Saw Ian in London in October (first time I'd seen him since 1981 @ the Bayou)...Opening the London concert with "Ballad Of Mott The Hoople" almost brought a tear to my eye.....Mick Ralphs & Verden Allen came out and played for a couple of songs...I've enjoyed the album as well. Nice to see Jeff Tweedy from Wilco involved....
  6. 1 point
    If you're ok with Juan Uribe, you should be fine with Luis Hernandez. They're equally offensive in slightly different ways. Uribe has more power, but Hernandez is here, is free, and is probably better defensively. Of course both go through outs like John Candy went through butter mashed potatoes at the Country Buffet. But if someone's decided to punt on a shortstop in '08 you might as well go with the cheap one you can discard on a moment's notice without anyone caring.
  7. 1 point
    Are we ACTUALLY going to discect which typo it was? Yep, we sure are. I suggest that the lynch mob based on one guess about the typo should please form to the left, while the lynch mob based on the other guess about the typo should please form to the right. That way, no matter what we decide about the typo, we'll have the appropriate lynch mob ready to move out in a hurry. Well, there you go again, dissing this entire board and everybody on it. Clearly, you're not one of "us". I can believe that Tony or Scottie or somebody hasn't reamed you a new one, or at least given you a vacation, for pointing out what a bunch of hysterics we are. And don't gimme any crap about how you're just talking about *some* people. We all know better than that. You're dissing every single person on this board, just like you always do. And I've had enough of it. If you'd just stick to the facts-as-I-see-them, this wouldn't happen. But you won't do that, and instead you insist in dissing every single person who posts here, just like you did here. I think that's pathetic, just like you are. Every single thing you say is pathetic and a joke, and I wish somebody who's not a crybaby would finally call you on it. You don't know anything, and you certainly don't know near as much as me. Plus, like I said, you're pathetic. That's p-a-t-h-e-t-i-c. I don't know where you get off dissing the whole board like you always do. It's pathetic... and a joke. Just put 2 and 2 together, and that proves that it's a pathetic joke... just like you are. So there! End of discussion. (Did I do that right? Did I miss anything ;-)
  8. 1 point
    Exactly. Phillips did almost nothing prior to 2007, and a lot of his semi-impressive counting stats come from getting 700 plate appearances. In rate stats he's no better than Roberts - similar OPS, but Phillips is heavier in the less-important slugging. Roberts simply makes outs less often. Translated to a neutral context Phillips' career year is .283/.330/.496. Roberts run-of-the-mill 2007 was .295/.388/.460. A 58 point OBP advantage smashes a 36 point SLG advantage, especially since Roberts has had this year before.
  9. 1 point
    Well, since everybody is having REALLY STRONG OPINIONS BASED ON ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, I think I will too ;-) I have no idea what AM and PA say to each other when they talk, but my bet is that the general tone of the conversation is much like what you've portrayed here. I bet they talk frequently, and I bet the conversation has the tone of 2 partners discussing what's best, with AM fully comfortable with the fact the PA is the owner. All the knee-jerk reaction about how this is somehow the Last Straw, that PA has somehow stabbed AM in the back, and that AM is (or should be) on his way out the door is pretty remarkable. I can't believe people think like that. (Of course, the big excuse will be "10 years of losing", just like it is for everything else.)
  10. 1 point
    He's only the 2nd piece if you rank the other players incorrectly.
  11. 1 point
    Goldstein did an update today 1. Matt Wieters, C 2. Chorye Spoone, RHP 3. Radhames Liz, RHP 4. Jake Arrieta, RHP 5. Troy Patton, LHP 6. Nolan Reimold, OF 7. Billy Rowell, 3B 8. Brandon Erbe, RHP 9. Garrett Olson, LHP 10. Pedro Beato, RHP 11. Mike Costanzo, 3B The Orioles made their one big deal by finding a taker for Tejada, but compared to the hauls some other teams have received this winter for big players, this one seems kind of light. Patton has very good command of average stuff, but his inability to miss bats at the upper levels is a major concern. Costanzo has plenty of power and patience, but he also strikes out far too much and is an absolutely miserable defensive third baseman. If (more like when) he's forced to move across the diamond, power and patience aren't enough–-you have to hit too. link
  12. 1 point
    I don't think he was saying something by using the term "Diehard." Most people here are diehard, as opposed to casual, fans of baseball and, to an extent, the O's. Please, no more stirring the argument pot. If you have an issue with what Dipper said, please take it up via PM.
  13. 1 point
    AM is working on getting the franchise to consistently produce young talent, not just one immediate wave of youth. So he will be likely to shoot for a couple guys to contribute now, and another wave to come through in 2010-11. 17-19 year olds with a lot of potential are exactly what he is looking for. Mark my words now, in the draft they will be looking at the highest ceiling HS prospect VERY closely now that they are going full rebuilding mode. (Although I really hope they end up with that Alvarez kid)
  14. 1 point
    Why? There's nothing else going on. If I didn't guess what was going on, I'd have to go do work. And, we can't have that...
  15. 1 point
    What's not true? You stated that Tony did not backpedal from his original story, that some other places would have removed the headline. Well, Tony did exactly that. The headline is different than it was yesterday morning, and the whole article is worded differently. The fact that the front page story has been updated this morning in no way negates what I said! The original headline with a foot note ran all day yesterday and Tony I'm sure spent the day trying to get to the bottom of things. Again, read what I was referring to in your post. And as far as Tony's diligence to get to the bottom of the story, I never questioned that. I believe Tony would not post something if he wasn't convinced to his core that what he was hearing from his sources was 100% true. Today's cover story is an explanation of why and how things have played out thus far. Today's cover story/headline is completely different from the original headline. So in a sense, the original headline was removed as you claimed it was not. This site is not the ESPN site, or the Baltimore Sun site, or any other news gathering agency! It is a fan site where Orioles fans gather to discuss and debate everything Orioles. If you popped in here looking for the latest headlines your in the wrong place. If you want to voice some valid criticism why not go to ESPN's site or the Chicago newspaper site that ran with this story yesterday? That is their job one, to report confirmed news stories from valid sources, not pass on rumors from blogs and chat sites. The Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune, ESPN, and RotoWorld never took Tony's story and ran with it. None of them stated this was a done deal and in fact stated that the Orioles were denying this rumor. Again, Tony was not reporting this as a rumor, he was reporting it as a fact based on what he learned from what he considered honest and reliable sources. It is a shame that those sources turned out to be wrong. I do not blame Tony for being incorrect. I merely question posting something as a fact before having any concrete confirmation from the most important source, the baseball team in question. I didn't come to OH (which you call "HO" btw, you should really watch your language ) for the latest headlines. I came here because the OH profiles a lot of the Orioles minor leaguers whereas the more major websites out there do not. There are also some very knowledgeable posters here and I check in to see what they have to say from time to time. When I saw Tony's headline, I immediately went to ESPN, RotoWorld, and the Sun to see what they were stating. Immediately Roch Kubatko posted that the Orioles told him this story was highly inaccurate. Since ESPN and Rotoworld had not posted anything at that time, I considered the story at least very questionable. A "no comment" from Andy MacPhail or the Orioles would have done a lot more to convince me that at least something was in the works at the time. While some were flattered by the attention this brought to the HO yesterday, I for one saw it as another example of how unprofessional national and local news sources have become when the writers surf the web and quote as fact things they learn from blogs, chat boards and rumor sites! We who frequent the HO know the the first rule is, "take all rumors with a grain of salt!" Well, I didn't see it that way. There is a lot of anticipation for this rebuilding effort this year and fans are excited to see just who the new Orioles are going to be. This story Tony posted created a lot of conversation on OH and also spilled over to ESPN. As far as the local or national media is concerned, I really don't know what you are talking about. Roch Kubatko (the Sun) never stated what Tony said was a fact. ESPN never reported on it, and RotoWorld basically said the same thing that Roch Kubatko said. The writer from the Chicago Tribune said that a deal COULD be done by as soon as Wednesday after stating that the talks have heated up between the Orioles and the Cubs, but he never said it was a done deal. Again, Tony never stated his story was a rumor. He was presenting it on a fact to which he thought he had good evidence to support it as such. I think this is what is confusing/upsetting some people. I apologize if I seem critical of you Tony, I know you were doing what you thought was right. But I think everyone here should learn something from this experience. How about that Nick Markakis?
  16. 1 point
    If a deal was taken to Angelos for approval, then MacPhail must have believed that it was worth doing. If Angelos nixed the deal, then AM is not the man driving the boat, he's merely a guy giving suggestions on how to drive the boat. If Peter Angelos looks at a trade and says, "That's not good enough for me", then nothing has changed.
  17. 1 point
    What is the root of all of this? I mean are people complaining because they got their hopes up that a trade was finalized and then something fell apart and it's not now? I mean, I'm sorry if you are hurt and upset that this has to drag on a little longer, and I'm sure Tony, BB, Belkast, Peace and all of our actual insiders are also sorry, but the fact is none of us know what changed yesterday, but something did. In the end, it's going to change, and we will have a bigger trade on our hands and be MORE excited than if the original trade were done. So lets all take a deep breath, and be just a little more patient until this thing is done. I'm as antsy for some news as much as anyone else here, but come on, has no one else had a deal or an agreement in place and all but signed on to have it fall apart at the 11th hour? Haven't you guys bought a house before? Then we should know that these things happen, more likely more so in a MLB trade than in a house settlement, and I'm sure plenty can attest that is pretty often itself. Let's give our insiders a little more faith and respect and cut them some slack.
  18. 1 point
    I think you are misreading his post again Tony. He's not saying you did anything wrong in posting the report you got from the sources, but that the national and local media outlets that reported the story as being done basing it on the OH were being a tad irresponsible.
  19. 1 point
    If he doesn't trust AM to make the right judgments, then he hired the wrong guy. If he nixes the deal seemingly this late in the negotiations, then he's a meddling schmuck IMO. The discussion should be ongoing during the dealing. AM should be doing the legwork, and he should report back to PA. If PA has objections, they should be voiced LONG before there is an offer for him to approve or reject. If it gets that far, and he rejects it...there is a horrible communication problem along the way.
  20. 1 point
    Talk about getting your knickers in a wad! Look I know you've had a rough 24 but that is no reason to go off half cocked when YOU misread something. I saw reports on ESPN and Chicago news sites yesterday morning stating the trade as fact and siting OH as the source. THIS IS NOT A NEWS SOURCE IS IT? That is why I said the NEWS AGENCIES that ran with the story were being irresponsible! Not you or the HO.Go back and read your own darn board! I have said nothing but positive and supportive things about you and the HO in this and all threads. You sir are the one who needs to get your darn facts straight!
  21. 1 point
    I appreciate Tony informing us exactly the way he did. He had reliable sources who told him this trade was done.If the same thing happens tomorrow with Roberts or another player, I would hope Tony would do the exact same thing. If I wanted to wait until the trade got confirmed by Major League Baseball, I'd read the Sun, or another major news outlet. I really appreciate any information I can get here on the Orioles, and I am capable of understanding that until an appropriate official confirms it, anything can happen. Tony and our other insiders, keep up the good work! No matter what happens in this instance with the Brian Roberts situation, any information we get before it hits the mainstream press is greatly appreciated. Don't let any criticism of what you publish prevent you from saying what you believe is reliable.
  22. 1 point
    No it's not, this is baeball, not congressional hearings into a president. Get a grip. we had two good sources that gave me the same information and after repeatedly being asked "are you 100 percent sure" I was assurred they were. I'm running a site dedicated to the Baltimore Orioles, not trying to get a pulitizer prive for investigative journalism.
  23. 1 point
    One thing I really like about OH is that you take time to respond. There is one aspect I wasn't clear on in my original post: I don't know who your sources are and I don't claim to. Furthermore, in a later post I posited that they were not necessarily the "insiders", but you did not reveal, as many journalists do not also, who those sources were. However, the timing and manner of the report led me, as I'm sure many others, due to the fact that those sources were not specified, to believe that it was based on the "insiders". It is clear that your sources were not AM, or the warehouse. Old media, as someone above posted, would have checked with the Orioles themselves. Perhaps you did, but you didn't state that. I feel bad about yesterday, and I'm sure you're taking heat on this, which is to be expected, honestly.
  24. 1 point
    Maybe Cindy prevailed on AM to cancel the trade?
  25. 1 point
    I think you could use BRAA on Fangraphs, which is LWTS by the 24 base/out states, for runs. Or you could use WPA/LI, which is LWTS (in Wins) by the Game State (inning, score, base, outs), with the Leverage depressed.
  26. 1 point
    Could a 2nd team (Cleveland? Colorado?) have stepped in with a strong offer making AM to go back to the Cubs for more...? Am I way out in left field here (if so, I'll say 'hey' to Luke Scott).....
  27. 1 point
    I guess I just don't get annoyed as easily as others? It's not like she's doing the evening news. And for the city dropping lol. I'm sure if people in Baltimore had just moved to another city they would mention Baltimore now and then. She's doing a show where she has to talk for near 4 hours. She's familiar with Miami so she references Miami. Personally I moved to Harford county after living in Baltimore County for 18 years. When talking to new friends I mentioned my times in Baltimore County quite often my first couple years and still occasionally do. And I don't have a talk show to fill air time with.
  28. 1 point
    No bashing intended, but there are several opinions in this thread where Tony specified to post comments in: You'll see quite a few answers to your question here.
  29. 1 point
    Well, if we start talking about what buffoons they are, you think they'll issue a retraction? ;-) ps: I dunno if they're buffoons or not, I know nothing about them. But why let the facts get in the way?
  30. 1 point
    1. She can sleep on my couch during the Super Bowl, or any bowl for that matter. 2. I'd accompany her anywhere she wanted. 3. I would surgically repair her ACL.
  31. 0 points
    I came on this morning and saw the front page saying that Brob was traded....but he wasn't. If the title was CLOSE to being traded or NEAR being traded would have been fine. But it actually said he was traded. Anybody wanna clue me in on why the information given was the wrong information. The front office and Orioles officials said it was completely inaccurate, so why was the Hangout reporting this as true? Sometimes I get tired of hearing all the conjecture and "predictions" from our "insiders" when often the only thing that comes true is them calling the trade an hour before it happens. Now I will be happy if this trade is true, but to report it as fact before it has happened, especially when AM and the front office deny the reports, is very unprofessional. Sorry for expressing my frustration, I am sure you will all bash me now for expressing an unpopular opinion.
  32. 0 points
    Yeah, OH has seriously deteriorated today. We're really in need of some news to change the subject. In it's absence, I think I need to logoff. Note: This isn't a knock on our insiders...just on many of the posters.
  33. 0 points
    Geez Shack, I said I was sorrying for peeing in your Cornflakes this morning.:002_sbiggrin: And, I think Hoosiers already did call me out for my poor taste in cynical commentary. Now I'm putting you on my ignore list and refusing to acknowledge your existence for all time. By the way, I never once expected Tony to rip me. If anything, he's been a victim of the mob mentality here, as much as anyone. I was only commenting on how we all - myself included, judging by my lack of productivity for the last two days - get so caught up in news, near news, and rumors of news.
  34. 0 points
    I'm not drawing conclusions that it went down this way at all. It's been suggested that it could have happened that way and I'm taking the position that any trade AM feels happy with (assuming no significant payroll increase and assuming said player is not untouchable) should not be second guessed by PA. Unlike most businesses(I'm assuming), the owner (or boss) here has little expertise in the business. Obviously, AM is the one to make the decision if he can do better and if it's worth it to hold out to try and do better. Those are baseball decisions. If AM drew up a trade and was ready to send it to the commisioners office, it's obvious that he felt this was the best move for the team. He's the guy I want to be making those decisions. 100% of the time.
  35. 0 points
    I see absolutely zero reason why the trades should be linked. The team needs to look to the future. If they can deal one now for some nice pieces, then do it. You continue looking to deal the other now, or at the deadline. One trade is hard enough to pull off at the ML level. To wait and try to do both at the same time seems absurd to me.
  36. 0 points
    Gotta disagree here Mack. Angelos is well within his rights as owner to declare Roberts offlimits. But if he's agreed to make him available, then at that point he needs to step back and entrust his FO to do their jobs. Angelos is an attorney, not a baseball talent evaluator. MacPhail and his staff are the talent evaluators. Just think for a second about what it implies about Angelos' view of MacPhail's competency if MacPhail comes to Angelos with a deal, only for Angelos to tell him, "sorry that's not good enough." It implies Angelos knows better about what MacPhail's been hired to do than MacPhail does.
  37. 0 points
    Please get you facts straight sir. We are not a HO... we are OH, the Orioles Hangout. Not someone who has indiscreet relations with many unknown people... :002_sbiggrin:
  38. 0 points
    Can someone please comment on this assertion by BB? I need to know whether or not to light my torch.
  39. 0 points
    You know what's getting old.. Crap like this! I DID NOT TAKE RUMORS FROM THIS BOARD AND RUN WITH IT AS NEWS!!!! I have no idea why some people can't get this through their heads. I had two sources privately convey the information was 100 percent true and accurate. I did not just grab some stuff off this board and run with it. You want to bash me go ahead, but get your darn facts straight!!
  40. -1 points
    Most of the posters responding to your post here completely misunderstood you. This has nothing to do with patience or trusting insiders. It has to do with professional journalism. Tony posted the trade as fact, not conjecture. RShack missed that point. The trade has not been verified as fact by any other media outlet or by the FO. It is only a scoop if it is true. It may be true, but it hasn't been verified. The professional thing to do is to remove the article or rewrite it completely. The OH took a leap and crossed a boundary that should not have been crossed: conjecture from "insiders" (whom I do not doubt have sources somehow connected) to published fact. A published article must be secure in its sources, completely confident. Keep in mind what Herbstreit experienced when he reported that Les Miles was gone to Mich. This has nothing to do with reading and enjoying what the insiders clue us into, this has to do with how far we accept it. Also, Bigbird has said that this deal, from his source inside the warehouse, is not done (as of late yesterday). Pact's post has nothing to do with patience for news, but how that news is reported, and what news is reported as fact.
  41. -1 points
    That is not true. If you read the headline this morning, it said that the Roberts trade was 100% done. When a report came from Roch and the Baltimore Sun that Andy MacPhail called the trade rumor highly inaccurate, Tony did not change the original message, but just added a line underneath his claim from his sources that this was a done deal. Now if you read that headline, it doesn't read anything like it did this morning. This is the current post: Roberts Trade Denied by Orioles (completely different from Roberts trade a done deal) By: Tony Pente 1/9/2008 Several sources have indicated that the trade of All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts to the Cubs has been finalized. However, the Orioles have denied this rumor and have called it "inaccurate." (different from a source within the organization and one outside of is call this deal 100% done.) The early reports indicated that the Orioles would get back 22-year old right-hander pitching prospect Sean Gallagher, 25-year old left-handed starting pitcher Sean Marshall, and 24-year old shortstop Ronny Cedeno. (This is different as well, saying that this was the exact return for Roberts). Latest Update (10:45 PM): The Orioles continue to deny this report and as of 10:45 PM no announcement has been made. Although our sources were solid, there is certainly a possibility the players in return could be different or that the deal was not as "final" as we were told. (If you report that a deal is done for players mentioned, but the deal is held up because the players mentioned might be different, well, the trade obviously is not done.) There is a lot of traction to this story, but Andy MacPhail is playing his cards very closely on this one. I still believe the basis of the story, but the players reported in the trade coming back may be different. (MacPhail is playing no cards. His statements have always remained the same.) I think we'll see a resolution to this shortly, but it may not be in the time we'd all like to see. More to come as it develops..... So perhaps if the headline this morning read: "Roberts deal to Cubs very close: Several sources OH trusts are stating that the return for Roberts would be Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno. While we believe this deal is near completion, we are waiting for confirmation from club officials." You wouldn't have people "complaining." What's with the inferiority complex around this place? The issue is, this story was reported as fact, not a rumor. The word rumor, possible, might, did not appear in that headline or the story contained under it.
  42. -1 points
    You are way off base here. This, along with the other posts of yours in this thread reveal characteristics you yourself have admonished others against. Tony did not state who his sources were, and from what other baseball circles they were from. Furthermore, that article was written in a way that led all who read this to believe that they were the "insiders" here. Apparently, it isn't good enough for any paper in the world, because no paper published that Roberts had been traded. Perhaps you should get your facts straight. Think about why it is that no paper published it, and how the rest of the baseball community is looking at our site. Also, your implication that people who don't read every single post in every thread are not grown-ups is completely ignorant. While not directly criticizing others, which I believe is against the rules here, you did it in a very backhanded manner by pumping your "adult" status up. Aren't you clever. The fact is, the OH crossed a line yesterday from perpetuating rumors on the message board, which is fun and engaging, to taking those rumors and publishing them as fact. Go back and read yesterday's article.
  43. -1 points
    What's not true? The fact that the front page story has been updated this morning in no way negates what I said! The original headline with a foot note ran all day yesterday and Tony I'm sure spent the day trying to get to the bottom of things. Today's cover story is an explanation of why and how things have played out thus far. This site is not the ESPN site, or the Baltimore Sun site, or any other news gathering agency! It is a fan site where Orioles fans gather to discuss and debate everything Orioles. If you popped in here looking for the latest headlines your in the wrong place. If you want to voice some valid criticism why not go to ESPN's site or the Chicago newspaper site that ran with this story yesterday? That is their job one, to report confirmed news stories from valid sources, not pass on rumors from blogs and chat sites. While some were flattered by the attention this brought to the HO yesterday, I for one saw it as another example of how unprofessional national and local news sources have become when the writers surf the web and quote as fact things they learn from blogs, chat boards and rumor sites! We who frequent the HO know the the first rule is, "take all rumors with a grain of salt!"
  44. -1 points
    I always wondered how mass hysteria works. Hitler hickups and millions of Germans march off to war. Jim Jones says have a drink, Billick says "take a leap of faith... Bigbird drops a stinkbomb on the board and we spend two hours crapping all over ourselves over an opinion with almost no facts whatsoever to back it up. Amazing.
  45. -1 points
    I wish people wouldn't ask this type of question,nobody knows the answer and it's a waste of time asking.
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