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Showing content with the highest reputation on 5/27/2011 in all areas

  1. 3 points
  2. 2 points
    Seriously. There are problems with WAR, but it is by far one of the best stats available. The fact that it does not match up with your "eye" simply means that your eye is probably wrong. Don't worry, advanced stats have proved that most everyone's eye is wrong a good bit of the time. I know it does not seem to make sense that a 5 ERA pitcher could be more valuable than a 3 ERA pitcher, but that does not mean it cannot be true. If you are going to attack WAR, then attack it on its predictive value, not on how you "feel" about it. WAR doesn't care about your feelings, or for that matter how a player appears to be playing. In fact, it would be a terrible stat if it did. Advanced stats have revolutionized the way people think about the game, and turned conventional knowledge on its head. I want to believe that winning one run games is a skill. I want to believe that a great closer is as valuable as a great position player. I want to believe that a player will hit better when batting in front of a great hitter. I want to believe in clutch, and the sacrifice bunt, and pitching to the score, and that a single is better than a walk. SABR does not care what I want, clearly. I think the proper argument here is not about Tillman or Britton, but the fact that Guthrie might be one of those rare individuals that can outperform his peripheral statistics on a consistent basis. Remember that FiP and its friends are young, and not perfect. Guts might just be a Fip freak.
  3. 1 point
    I'm just a caveman... <img src="http://www.thecitrusreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Screen-shot-2010-11-09-at-11.23.54-AM.png">
  4. 1 point
  5. 1 point
    Thorne got pretty excited for Reynolds flashing the leather. Must think he plays for the Red Sox.
  6. 1 point
    He still looks 30. The girls he knew look 70.
  7. 1 point
    You'd think fisting it up the middle would at least get you to third base, no?
  8. 1 point
    Game over, man. GAME OVER!!
  9. 1 point
    So, I know this game is inconveniently late for most, but I have class from 6-10PM, six days a week until August...so I can watch only very few games live until then. This series is a godsend because I am going through some serious withdrawal.
  10. 1 point
    :smile11: DH/LF/1B wherever, we need that bat
  11. 1 point
    Kurt Suzuki > SH Jesus?
  12. 1 point
    Beautiful stuff, Weams ! Thanks for the wake-up call. Right now I'm gettin' a glass of merlot & I'm going to spin "Nighthawks at the Diner" on the turntable ! That should ensure a Gio Gonzalez poor outing !
  13. 1 point
    The issue with the different WARs for FanGraphs and B-R comes down to FG choosing to represent a pitcher's value as "how he SHOULD have done" and B-R choosing to represent that value as "how he DID do." It's not a surprise that most are more comfortable with B-R's approach, because it accords with what they actually saw, in terms of hits falling and runs crossing the place. I think there are arguments to be made on each side. On one hand, it seems odd to use "should have" in a metric that is intended to demonstrate how a pitcher actually performed. But on the other hand, it isn't necessarily fair to penalize a pitcher for things out of his control (bad luck, bad defense, etc.). The one thing that CAN'T be argued, though, is the legitimacy of the underlying BABIP assumption. I've seen a lot of comments indicating that it's absurd to assume that pitchers have no control over whether a ball put in play isn't a hit. Which is an inaccurate characterization of the theory, as everyone accepts that more LDs (for example) means a higher BA. The BABIP assumption, though, is that even though pitchers have some control over the batted ball, over time the vast majority of pitchers are going to have BABIPs in the .290-.300, regardless of how good they are. Good pitcher, bad pitcher, it doesn't really matter. With only a handful of exceptions (usually heavy GB pitchers --- like Hudson or potentially Britton --- or occasionally a FB pitcher with unusual late movement --- like Santana or Guthrie), it's going to regress to that .290-.300 range with enough innings. To demonstrate, here are two groups of pitchers: Group A: Pitcher A: 2381 career innings, .292 career BABIP against Pitcher B: 1592 career innings, .293 career BABIP against Pitcher C: 1483 career innings, .297 career BABIP against Pitcher D: 3055 career innings, .309 career BABIP against Group B: Pitcher A: 892 career innings, .293 career BABIP against Pitcher B: 1198 career innings, .295 career BABIP against Pitcher C: 1178 career innings, .298 career BABIP against Pitcher D: 1760 career innings, .309 career BABIP against Group A? Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Andy Pettitte Group B? Daniel Cabrera, Omar Daal, Adam Eaton, and Sidney Ponson Four of the best pitchers of the past decade and four of the worst. No discernible difference in results when the ball is put into play. You can argue the wisdom of using "should have" considerations in WAR...but it's almost impossible to argue the assumption that BABIP will regress to the set range in all but a handful of cases. No matter how great the pitcher, it's going to eventually end up coming back to .290-.300. So anything significantly far from that range is luck --- that just isn't going to continue. Guthrie's pitched long enough that it's now reasonable to believe he's truly an exception to the rule. Britton? Not so much. There's some regression yet to come for him.
  14. 1 point
    It seems to me that if you want a WAR that describes how many wins a player has been worth so far, given actual in-game runs allowed, then use BB-Ref. If you want a WAR that predicts how many wins the player will be worth in next batch of games at the same sample size, use Fangraphs.
  15. 1 point
    Trading Guts now, considering team control and the scarcity of SP, would have to yield a knockout return in terms of prospects to be worthy of consderation. I'm talking at least one A-level infield prospect ready to contribute now, and an A-level pitching prospect at least in high class A MiLB to make it worth while.
  16. 1 point
    I am drowning in ignorance! Help!
  17. 1 point
    This is not true. The argument is that pitchers have plenty of control over whether their balls in play tend to get hit in the air, on the ground or on a line, probabilistically speaking. And, each one of those types of batted balls tends to fall for a hit at a mean percentage. Some pitchers can deviate a bit from the mean for an extended time, but anything beyond two standard deviations can be considered an outlier. K rates, BB rates, and (to a lesser extent) HR rates tend to remain more static from season to season than do BABIP and hit rates. Because of this, they have more predictive value and we can infer that pitchers tend to control those them more. I'm not arguing that Fangraphs assessment of pitcher value is appropriate, just clarifying a point.
  18. 1 point
    Yep. Went to a game with That Guy recently. As soon as I saw the glove in the back seat of his car, I knew it was a bad sign. He didn't even get a ball, either.
  19. 1 point
    I mean, you realize Alonso has like 40 pounds on Snyder, right? I'm not saying that guarantees growth in power production, but I think it would be a stretch to compare the two of them outside of a rudimentary side-by-side stat comparison (which is dubious when you are talking minor league numbers). If you are trading for a prospect, you are always taking on risk. You just have to ask what sort of risk profile you are willing to tolerate (upside vs. probability). For what it's worth, it's probably a moot point with regards to Alonso. Cincy can hold on to him and hide him in left field with Stubbs in center.
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15191557&topic_id&c_id=mlb&tcid=fb_video_15191557 It can happen to anyone. See that guy in the grey Baltimore jersey "trying" to catch the Mark Reynolds homerun ball. That's me:o Although I blame the miss on Guiness as I had several b4 the game over at Pickels! My story did have a happy ending though, despite missing the catch I won the race to the ball after it landed!
  22. 1 point
    I caught a batting practice homer off the bat of Harold Baines on the flag court at Camden Yards (this was when he was with the White Sox, '97 maybe?). Sounds like a great story so far, right? Well, it also broke my right index finger. That hurt like hell, but I still held onto the ball!
  23. 0 points
    You know, the great thing about Matt Wieters is, is that if a runner tried that on him, THE RUNNER would be the one out for the season.
  24. -1 points
    Go to bed folks. This one is over already. And yes, you're allowed to roll your eyes at me for making that comment.
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