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Showing content with the highest reputation on 5/29/2015 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    On July 24th, 2014 Dan acquired Jimmy Paredes - what now seems like another great DD move. Sometime between July 24 and July 31 - Dan was obviously cursed. There is no other rational explanation for what has happened to every major transaction he's made since. Don't believe in curses? I defy you to use rational thought to explain this crazy run of results the significant DD decisions have yielded since July 31. 1) Trades Ed Rod for Andrew Miller. EdRod has a 4.79 in AA at the time. Immediately goes crazy - 0.96 ERA the rest of the year. Cruises through AAA, dominates in MLB debut. 2) Makes the somewhat unusual move of announcing a player extension during the playoffs the day before the ALCS. Hardy posts .517 OPS in the series and the team gets swept. This season Hardy down to .508 OPS and having back problems. 3) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign Andrew Miller. Miller signs with our most hated division rival, posts 0.84 ERA, is definitely in the conversation for best reliver in all of baseball. 4) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign Nelson Cruz. Cruz leads majors in HR, 1.070 OPS, best hitter in the AL so far. 5) Elects not to aggressively attempt to resign lead off hitter and Gold Glove RF Nick Markakis. Markakis posts .397 OBP - almost 60 points higher than last year - Orioles have some defensive issues in RF. 6) Signs Delmon Young. Young career low .658 OPS. Due to his veteranosity frequently clogs up our clean up spot. 7) Trades for Travis Snider. Snider's OPS drops almost 60 points from last year down to .719. The traded - Brault 3-0 3.59, Tarpley 1-0 1.80 in the minors. 8) Signs Wesley Wright. Wight 5.40 ERA in 1.2 IP, out with shoulder injury. 9) Signs Everth Cabrera. Cabrera career low .476 OPS. 10) Tenders Alejandro De Aza a contract. OPS drops 65 points from last year down to .636. O's have to DFA him. 11) Trades Ryan Webb. Webb ultimately surfaces in Cleveland - career low 1.29 ERA. This is a really unbelievable run of results. Just sustained spectacular bad luck. Obviously the sample on all these is very low - they could all turn around - but forget sample sizes and math - we're clearly dealing with a curse here. Supernatural forces are at play. Get your De Aza for MVP futures bets in now because wherever he lands he's clearly going to go bananas.
  2. 3 points
    The Incumbents The 2015 Opening Day rotation featured 5 stalwarts - Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yen Chen, Bud Norris, and Ubaldo Jimenez. The rotation features two players who are free agents to be and three players with three years of control left. The two free agents to be - Bud Norris and Wei-Yen Chen - are unlikely to be Orioles after the 2015 season. Chen is in the final year of a $15.5M free agent deal that had been signed prior to the 2012 season. Chen has provided an excess of value against his contract and will be looking at $10M+ per year on the open market after the 2015 season. Norris will be a free agent, after earning $8.8M in his final year of arbitration. The Orioles will likely offer a Qualifying Offer (QO) to Chen, which will be approximately $16M for the 2016 season. Chen will not see an Annual Average Value (AAV) of $16M in a new deal but a team will likely part with a draft pick to land a 4 year contract in the realm of $50M. On a personal note, I see Chen signing with a team that has already forfeited their top pick for a front line starter and Chen will only cost their second pick. "Worst case," Chen (30) accepts the QO and the Orioles are paying him $16M on a one year deal. Norris (31) on the other hand, will not see a QO, as he will be too much of a risk of being the first player to accept a QO. Both pitchers will see their value diminished due to the other available options, not limited to Johnny Cueto (30), Doug Fister (32), Zack Greinke (32), Scott Kazmir (32), Ian Kennedy (31), Mat Latos (28), David Price (30), and Jordan Zimmerman (30). On the controlled side, Ubaldo Jimenez is in the second year of a four year worth approximately $50M. Chris Tillman ($4.3M) and Miguel Gonzalez ($3.275M) are both in their first year of arbitration, with two more rounds of arbitration to go. All three are likely to remain with the Orioles in 2016, especially with the question marks of possibly losing two starting pitchers to free agencies. In the off chance Wei-Yen Chen were to accept the QO, the team could look to trade a pitcher, most likely Tillman or Chen, for a positional player. The Opening Day bullpen consisted of 8 pitchers - Zach Britton ($3.2M), Tommy Hunter ($4.65M), Darren O?Day ($4.25M), Kevin Gausman (~510K), Brian Matusz ($3.2M), Wesley Wright ($1.7M), Brad Brach (~510K), and Jason Garcia (~510K). The Orioles have three agents to be - Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day, and Wesley Wright - as well as a non-tender candidate in Brian Matusz. If there is one word to describe the bullpen it is inflexibility. Gausman is the only player with options remaining but is also one of the best pitchers on the team, though his handling has been controversial. Jason Garcia, the team's lone remaining Rule 5 pick, might not even make it through the season. Wesley Wright has been unable to provide any value to the Os, suffering an injury in ST and eventually falling on the DL after a few days during the season. Brian Matusz, who most believe shouldn't have been on the team in 2015, will face another tendering deadline. The bullpen will likely be highly revamped in 2016. Hunter, Wright, and Matusz are all likely to let go and left unpursued by the team in free agency. O'Day is the most likely to return if he is willing to remain at his current $4M AAV, though the Orioles did acquire another sidearmer in Ben Rowen from the Dodgers. If Garcia is retained by the Orioles, he will likely be sent to AAA for more seasoning. Brad Brach is what he is, and while eligible for arbitration for the first time, he will most likely remain as a middle reliever, if he makes it through the 2015 season. Kevin Gausman should be stepping up to fill one of the two potential vacancies in the rotation, though there is a minor chance he could remain as a set-up man to Zach Britton. Britton will be in an interesting position, as a closer who scored big as a super two. He still has three rounds of arbitration left and may not be an Oriole for all three trips through arbitration. There are several minor league pitchers that could fill the holes left in the Orioles' bullpen for 2016, but DD has shown a tendency to pick up a middle reliever on the FA market, while also taking players in the rule 5 draft, so I highly doubt all openings are filled internally. The Minors For the first time in a long time, there is a logjam in the upper minors. The Orioles? 40 man roster is flooded with options (and their remaining options after this year) - Mike Wright (2), Tyler Wilson (2), TJ McFarland (1), Oliver Drake (1), Eddie Gamboa (2), Dylan Bundy (0), and Tim Berry (1). There are also non-roster options - Steve Johnson (0), Zach Davies, Cesar Cabral (2), Pat McCoy (2), Mychal Givens, Chris Jones, Ben Rowen (2), and Brandon Kline - knocking on the door. And you have former major leaguers in Michael Bowden, Pedro Beato, Dane De La Rosa, and Chaz Roe that could serve in an emergency. At the moment, there are no immediate openings in the bullpen or rotation and Wesley Wright will eventually be back. Gamboa was already called up for a few days this year but didn't appear in a game. The Orioles added him to the 40 man roster a second time this past winter as a minor league free agent, but have already removed him once, during the prior off-season, shortly after adding him. Dylan Bundy will be out of options and must be on the Opening Day roster 2016 barring any injuries. While the 40 man roster is currently full, the team will lose Chen, Hunter, Norris, O'Day, W. Wright, Wieters, Pearce, Davis, DeAza, and Young will all come off the roster for free agency in early November. During the season, Garcia, Lavarnway, Clevenger, Navarro, Drake, and Gamboa could all risk losing their spots. As for this off-season, Davies, Kline, and Givens will be added to the 40 man roster. If not already added, I think Rowen, McCoy, and Johnson will also be added. From a pure depth standpoint, Bridwell and Hobgood will be left exposed to the Rule 5. Jason Esposito is the only positional prospect that might warrant protection. There will be an abundance of spots to add/protect players that could help in 2016, but I doubt we see many additions to the 40 man roster during the season, perhaps for Steve Johnson. 2016 Outlook If there is a word to describe the 2016 club, it is flexibility. The team will be shedding up to ~$28M in current payroll, with $10-12M going to Britton, Tillman, and Gonzalez in arbitration raises. The team could have up to 2 rotation spots and 5 bullpen spots available and most of the answers will have options, providing flexibility to change as the season wears on. The nice thing is we have viable options for all roles that will be available. The Opening Day rotation will likely feature Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez, Gausman, and Bundy, with Wright, Wilson, Davies, or McFarland as backup options. The bullpen will likely feature Britton and Brach as the only stalwarts, with a whole new cast of characters, possibly including a free agent signing or Rule 5 pitcher. Needless to say, the Orioles are deep in pitching and aren't in a position to lose much of it for several years, though a trade might be necessary to clear out some of the logjam for the next wave of pitching led by Hunter Harvey.
  3. 2 points
    Similarly, imagine if it had been reported that the O's turned down the trade then the O's lost to a Tigers team anchored in the bullpen by Andrew Miller in the ALDS, and now EdRod was still pitching in Double A at about the same level he did for Bowie last year while Wright etc. were pitching for the O's as well as they are now. People would be saying how DD had a surplus of pitching and was crazy not to part with a piece for a shot at a WS and how he should have gone for it. Hindsight--always 20/20.
  4. 2 points
    Down home we prefer "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." I am usually an interested observer to these discussions, but as a person who has used models and statistics routinely over a career lasting much longer than I like to think about, I have found that when considering complex systems (and humans are about as complex a system as one will ever encounter), both observation and modeling/statistics are necessary. Statistics, as used in this thread, is a way of characterizing a large sample of data involving complex interactions in a consistent and unbiased way to extract as much information as possible from the data. Values so derived are perhaps uncertain, but if the underlying data is valid, the values derived cannot be viewed as incorrect. Similarly, human brains can process a huge number of variables and condense them into a value judgement. This comes with a level of uncertainty that is much more difficult to quantify than for statistical analysis. My professional experience has been that when the two methods are in close alignment, you can be pretty certain of the result. When they do not align, a smart person tries to understand why they don't align to avoid being mislead by one or the other. It is seldom a positive to say one is correct and the other incorrect until you know why they disagree. I'll go back to sleep now.
  5. 2 points
    I went back 10 years - very few significant rentals by WS winners in that time. The Giants rented Jake Peavy last year (and then resigned him) - the price was Edwin Escobar who hasn't pitched this year with shoulder issues and Heath Hembree who has a 1.08 ERA in AAA - but neither are big time prospects. The 2011 Cardinals rented Octavio Dotel and Edwin Jackson - primarily for Colby Rasmus. Rasmus was already up - but was a young player/prospect. Rasmus has become a solid MLB regular - but I wouldn't say the Cardinals are up at night sweating this one. No other WS winner in the last 10 years made a deadline rental move. The '12 Giants made a move for Pence but he was under contract for years to come. The rest of WS winners since '05 didn't really make any significant deadline move at all that I noticed- let alone a rental.
  6. 1 point
    Big balls on O'Day!! But credit Wallace for the trip to the mound. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  7. 1 point
    Red Sox 2011 media guide.
  8. 1 point
    We will win it in the bottom half of the 9th.
  9. 1 point
  10. 1 point
    When Terry Crowley says he is ready to come back full time.
  11. 1 point
    You must have really hated De Aza considering you wanted to trade Lough for Nate McLouth when McLouth was in the midst of a season where he put up -0.7 rWAR (-0.5 fWAR), and were concern-trolling as to whether people were still happy with the Lough-Valencia trade three weeks into the season that Valencia ended up recording 0.3 rWAR and 0.4 fWAR. Lough meanwhile put up 1.6 rWAR and 1.9 fWAR. I don't think you have a firm grasp on Lough's value to the Orioles.
  12. 1 point
    Oh, come on. After four or five it's not his fault. He's no longer responsible.
  13. 1 point
    At least we didn't trade Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.
  14. 1 point
    Jumping off that point, had we beaten KC in the ALCS, and made it to the Series, or won it, would that change anyone's opinion on the deal? That could have been what Duquette was thinking at the time. Back in July, he knew we were out Wieters; Hardy was a pending free agent; Davis and Chen, IMHO, are sure to test the market. In short, even though he had a surplus of young arms, 2014 could have been seen as a limited window to go all the way before having to rebuild the club in 2016.
  15. 1 point
    Nothing like having the end results to support your position. His doubters can say what they want, since DD has been here the Orioles have been to the playoffs 2 out of the 3 seasons, have had a winning record in all seasons, and like you said, they are still positioned to make a run this year. Do I agree with every move he's made, no, but I'm glad he's been the one making the calls since he got here.
  16. 1 point
    My vote is for Cabral. He's a lefty having an outstanding season at Norfolk. Let's give him a look and see if he can be a more reliable lefty specialist than Matusz.
  17. 1 point
    1) Miller was critical to our playoff run last year. Got some huge outs in the DET series. No matter what happens with Ed Rod, the trade was a short term success at least. 2) Hardy has missed 2 innings due to a back issue this year. The other time was a different injury (shoulder). Went cold in the playoffs but he had a decent year with the bat aside from HRs. 3) & 4) The upside of this is payroll flexibility going forward. Now that Ubaldo is performing, we really do not have a single bad contract. 5) & 7) OBP is Nick's one good number. Overall he is having a bad year and will only get worse. Overall Snider/De Aza has given us about what Nick is doing for much less. I would put this on the side of a good non-move. 6) and 8) thru 10) None of these are bad contracts. None of these guys are expected to be core contributors. 11) I am not really worried about Webb turning into Aroldis Chapman. We got a guy back with options who is pitching well in AA. Basically on every single point you are only telling one side of the story. All of these can be seen as good moves.
  18. 1 point
    I voted with my heart and said Steve Johnson. I know he doesn't have the most electric stuff, but he did well for us in limited use in the majors before. He also makes the most of what he's got and pitches intelligently (thanks Dad). I'd like to see him get a chance at full health.
  19. 1 point
    I guess it's all a matter of perspective. Dan was hired to be the O's VP of Baseball Operations and he turned the O's around after 14 losing seasons. 1) 2012 - The season after his hiring the O's went to the playoffs for the first time since 1997. 2) 2013 - The O's had their second consecutive winning season. 3) 2014 - The O's won the AL East and beat Detroit in the playoffs. 4) During his first three years with the O's they won more games than any other team in the AL other than Oakland. 5) The O's are currently 2 games back in the AL East and probably have the best pitching depth of any team in their division. Pitching normally wins. The O's are positioned well for another playoff run. All this has happen because Dan has built a positive relationship with Buck and Peter, a fine front office staff, good drafting, scouting and player development organizations. Too focus on certain moves that might not have worked out is really to miss the whole point of what Dan has done. The has built a winning organization from one that was a big loser of years. The O's and O's fans are lucky to have him. Most O's fans understand this very well.
  20. 1 point
    Good production and won (*following year): '00 -- DBacks traded Daal/Figueroa/Padilla/Lee for Schilling -- won World Series subsequent year. Good production but lost: '98 -- Astros traded Halama/Guillen/Garcia for Randy Johnson -- won 102 games but got knocked out of the playoffs by the Padres. Johnson was a stud throughout the second half and post-season; team lost in playoffs. '11 -- Phillies traded Cosart/Singleton/Santana/Zeid for Hunter Pence -- won 102 games and Pence played well through the second half/playoffs; team lost in playoffs. '07 -- Braves traded Feliz/Andrus/Harrison for Teixeira -- missed playoffs. Phillies made out fine so far. Astros gave up a fair amount of future big league production they could have used. Braves obviously did very very poorly on their deal.
  21. 1 point
    Sound good. I guess I was just going all Firestone with my hand wringing.
  22. 1 point
    I agree, except I think that the one thing this move wasn't was desperate. It strikes me as one that was completely calculated and reasonable under the circumstances. It's too bad it's beginning to look like we might "lose" the trade (horrors!), but if something like this doesn't happen to contending teams every once in a while then their FO isn't trying hard enough.
  23. 1 point
    It could be time for Steve Johnson to make his case as a long man in the pen. When Matusz is out, and we're down a pitcher, we will need someone who can go several innings vs. all hitters.
  24. 1 point
    Swing Lough, sweet chariot, coming for to drive me home! Still waiting for them to sign a right-handed hitting COF named Behold, so we can have a platoon of Lough and Behold.
  25. 1 point
    Boston is the worse city in the entire US of A to drive a car in, much less a truck.
  26. 1 point
    Seems to me like Joseph and Clevenger is your likely catching duo for 2016. If Clevenger has indeed improved his defense then letting Wieters go is a great way to re-allocate some resources.
  27. 1 point
    Come on Frobby. This one is about the Andrew Miller trade. Not the Eduardo Rodriguez trade....oh wait.
  28. 1 point
    And it's whispered that soon, if we all call the tune, Then the piper will lead us to reason. And a new day will dawn for those who stand long, And the forests will echo with laughter. If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now, It's just a spring clean for the May queen. Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run There's still time to change the road you're on. And it makes me wonder. Your head is humming and it won't go, in case you don't know, The piper's calling you to join him, Dear lady, can you hear the wind blow, and did you know Your stairway lies on the whispering wind? <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9Q7Vr3yQYWQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
  29. 1 point
  30. -1 points
    We have a rant section maybe we should have a sour grapes section.
  31. -1 points
    This post measured out at 12 grumbleglarks (which is pretty solid, though there is a +/-3 grumbleglark margin of error).
  32. -1 points
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