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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/29/2019 in Posts

  1. 5 points
    Major League deal. One time top-50 prospect, 4th overall pick in 2013. Will presumably be in the starting rotation mix. A little surprised it took an MLB deal. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster in 2018 when he was promoted to the Majors and was not optioned that year, so he used his first option last year and has two options remaining. He was Rule 5 eligible after the 2017 season and was not selected.
  2. 4 points
    The soon this team gets to the majors the soon the O's become a contender. Catcher- Adley Rutschman- Could play defense and call games in the majors today. What he has to be refined is his hit tool. I think he begins the season in Delmarva. Whenever he shows at least 100 AB where he hits well he moves up. He has 5 months to get through 4 minor league level. If he does that he begins in AAA and is promoted to the majors a month into the 2021 in the season. If he take longer to hit as any level it will take him longer to get to the majors. Its up to him. First Base/DH - Ryan Mountcastle. Since the O's will have Santander, Hays and Diaz in the majors when they contend there is little reason to put Mountcastle in left field for a year. He should refined his defense at 1B. He begins 2020 at Norfolk and is promoted to he majors a month later. Second Base - Adam Hall - He begins the season at Frederick. I think he spend at full season at each level. ETA for the major: 2023 Shortstop - Richie Martin - I don't know if he has the bat to be successful in the majors but I like his defense. Defensive metric suck, so I throw them out the window. I think he plays all season at Norfolk He may even play a month at 2021 at AAA. If he hits he is in the majors after that. Third Base - TBD Left Field - Anthony Santander - With the O's. Center Field - Austin Hays- With the O's. Right Field - Yusniel Diaz - Plays all season with Norfolk. Is promoted to the O's one month into the 2021 season. DH/1B - Trey Mancini - He will play right field for the O's in 2020. But he will be 1B/DH a month into the 2021 season. Starters: Grayson Rodriguez - Begins the season at Frederick and is promoted to Bowie in late June. Starts 2021 in Norfolk and is promoted to the majors in July. He has to do well at each level for this to happen. Why the rush? If all goes well Rutschman, Martin, Santander, Hays, Diaz, Mancini, Means. Harvey, Kremer, Baumann will all be in the majors. There is not reason to hold him back. DL Hall - Play all season at Bowie in 2020. Plays all season at AAA in 2021. Call to the majors a month into 2022. John Means- With the O's. Michael Baumann - Plays all 2020 at Norfolk. Called to the majors a month into 2021. Dean Kremer - Plays all 2020 at Norfolk. Called to the majors a month into 2021. Keegan Akin - Begins 2020 AT Norfolk. Called to the majors in June 2020. Zac Lowther - Begins 2020 in Norfolk. Called to the majors in July 2020 if pitching well. Hunter Harvey - With the O's. This is if all goes well, which it will not. But I will be rooting for them to progress to become the O's next contending team.
  3. 3 points
    We’ve had lots of discussion over the years about whether to hold players back for service time reasons, and debates about how common the practice is. I spent some time this afternoon trying to look at some data on the latter question. I looked at every player debut over the last decade. There were 2,394 players who debuted this decade, almost exactly 8 per team per season. 285 players debuted early enough in the season where they would get credit for 172+ days of service if they stayed in the majors all year, roughly one per team per year. I then broke down the rest of the year in terms of debuts per day over certain periods, to see if any big patterns emerged. Here’s how it broke down: Rest of April, after the 172 day threshold passed: 1.25 debuts per day. May 1-15: 1.00 debuts per day. May 16-31: 1.19 debuts per day. June 1-15: 1.14 debuts per day. June 16-30: 1.32 debuts per day. July: 1.07 debuts per day. August: 1.18 debuts per day. September/October (expanded rosters): 1.42 debuts per day. Overall, I think it’s hard to look at that data and conclude that there’s a ton of service time manipulation going on, at least with respect to when players make their major league debuts. I do think the dip in debuts in the first half of May is probably influenced by teams trying to avoid the unknown cutoff date for Super-2 status that usually arrives sometime after May 15, and that the late June bump up may relate to the relative certainty that Super-2 has passed. And, the relatively high “rest of April” debut rate probably includes a few guys who were delayed to get an extra year of control without regard to Super-2. But overall, I wouldn’t say the effects are huge. To really try to drill down on this, you’d probably need to look at who among these players were younger, highly regarded prospects. Looking at 2010-12, there were 53 players who have accrued 10+ WAR who debuted by June 15 of their debut year. Only 10 of those were on an opening day roster (or activated in time for them to accrue 172+ service days: Austin Jackson, Jayson Heyward, Mike Leake, Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Michael Pineda, Yeonis Cespedes, Yu Darvish, Marwin Gonzalez and Nori Aoki. At some point I’ll have a close look at the other 43 to see if there’s reason to think their service time was manipulated.
  4. 2 points
    Entering Year Two of the rebuild, I am most interested in our players who have had 1-2 years of MLB service and were essentially survivors of the Year One Inventory Tryout last season. For whatever reason it may be, Elias saw enough in a whole year of observation to decide on keeping the following list of players on the 40 man for further evaluation. They may not make it through next season, let alone Spring Training, but at this point they have another shot at establishing themselves as MLB players. If they continue to perform they could be on the next Orioles winning team in 2023 or 2024. I am not saying the following players will be part of that team, but they were given essentially a full year tryout last season and they are being brought back for year 2 of the rebuild. That includes an entire offseason for our analytics and player development guys to assess the data from 2019. How will it be applied to the following players? Will the players make adjustments to improve their performance and stay in Elias’ plans for contention? How quickly we can contend again relies most on this group of players "getting it" and becoming regular contributors. I believe the over/under right now is probably 3? 1. Anthony Santander – He flashed a lot of tools this past year that made it obvious what the team envisioned when they drafted him in the Rule V. Its funny to think this will be his 4th year with the organization but he’s only had 1.162 years of service. September was the outlier after he mashed for essentially 3 months before he limped to a .505 OPS in the final month of the year. Definitely needs more patience at the plate as he chased the high heat a lot. I think he has the most potential out of the players on this list to break out big time in 2020. 2. Renato Nunez – 31 Homeruns, and some were absolutely blasted. Lot of really solid statcast statistics. No defensive value which brough his WAR down. Best as a DH. Him and Mancini could really find a comfort zone if Davis is out of the picture. Needs to K less and walk more, although he seemed to take more pitches as the season went on. Monster July really held up his whole season. 3. Rio Ruiz – He is a really interesting player. He looks good in a baseball uniform, meaning he has a lot of athletic movement and physique to him. I thought I noticed him make a change to his swing after he returned to the majors that helped him open up his front shoulder a little bitter and get to the inside pitch. Has some on-base skills. Post All Star Break, he saw a spike in his SLG%. Positive dWAR third baseman. I think he still has a lot of work to do with his bat, but maybe he can build on his strong finish. 4. Richie Martin - He might not even start the season with the team, but he flashed some tools. He is in the top 2% in the league in sprint speed. He showed the potential to steal 20+ bases. His glove graded out at -0.1dWar. I think his glove shows potential to be a positive tool in the bigs. He did have a magical September, OPSing 1.060. Right now, he is in line to be the starting SS. 5. Chance Sisco – Still only 132 games in the bigs. Flashes OBP skills. But his swing doesn’t seem like the one that would have won multiple minor league hitting titles. Looks long and loopy at times. Does flash a few statcast power attributes like barrell% and launch angle. Adley will be knocking soon. Interesting to see what becomes of Chance Sisco. 6. Pedro Severinio –Mashed lefties. That was about it. Graded below average defensively. Flashes power potential. If Sisco can start hitting, they could make a good lefty/righty platoon. Not sure if he will be able to apply any analytics to his defensive approach. 7. Stevie Wilkerson – Should not be allowed to hit against lefties. Maybe give up hitting right handed? Might never develop into a full time starter, but could be a great 26th man on a competitive roster. Can play 7 of 8 positions and can be a mop up pitcher. Has top tier sprint speed. Could he develop stolen base skills? 8. John Means – A lot of the analytics point to him coming back to earth soon. His change up is killer and he seems to have learned a lot last season. Here’s hoping he can be our ace for the next two season and slide into a back of the rotation starter by the time we are competitive. 9. Asher Wojciechowski – 1.4 WAR isn’t too bad for a milb sign. Has that high spin 4 seamer. Looked golden at times last season. Got hit way too hard on the whole. His slider and 4 seamer have potential. Change was essentially useless. Would be nice to see him hold down a spot in the back of the rotation and maybe evolve into a spot starter/opener if he is around by contention. 10. Shawn Armstrong – I still like his slider/cutter. I also wondered how he would do in an opener role. His numbers are inflated a little bit by his poor start with Seattle. His August was also disastrous. Needs to find a way to get RH hitters out better. Lots of K potential if he can control his cutter/slider combo a little better. 11. Paul Fry – Kind of the LH version of Armstrong. Both were .3 WAR for the O’s, with decent K numbers , pretty good sliders, and disastrous Augusts (although Fry took his disaster much deeper into September). Batters don’t get a good launch angle off Fry. Could find some value if he can start getting lefties out more consistently. 12. Tanner Scott – K’s are there. So are the BBs. Slider can be untouchable at times. If he can find some control, he could be a sleeper pick for future closer still. 13. Dwight Smith Jr. – I am still shocked to see him on the roster. His arm turned me off completely last year, but he did show the ability to hit at times. Not sure what Elias’ plans are for him. I know he has an option left. 14. David Hess – Another player I am shocked to still see on the 40 man, but apparently they are going to try Hess as a reliever in 2020. Statcast says he has some solid vertical movement with is 4 seamer, and his CB had much better movement in 2018. Again, who knows how analytics may affect all the names on this list.
  5. 2 points
    This reminded me of an "Edna Ferber?" poem I had to memorize in Elementary school: "Roll roll you creaking high wheeled wagons Roll across these furrows where my strength was shed This field of corn-knees is a written scroll to show that we have toiled for our daily bread" These players mentioned by @wildcard and referred to by others must definitely all shed some sweat and "burn the midnight oil" going over the analytics to reach the heights we seek. I am loving all of the give and take here by all of you "savants" above. This hot stove brings me much delight! Carry on! ⚾
  6. 2 points
    Several injuries while in the minors seemed to slow his development. Still young. I guess I can stop whining about them doing nothing.
  7. 2 points
    A throwback to Summer 2014 when Stewart and Harvey were blazing towards Top 50-ish MLB wide prospectdom. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/24045/bp-top-50-hunter-harvey-vs-kohl-stewart/ I think the moderator Nick Faleris may be our Stotle. At this time, Stewart's slider was reputed so good ala Bundy's cutter part of the report is the Twins weren't letting him use it.
  8. 2 points
    Rarely have I checked a Minor League leaderboard to make sure of something with predisposed certainty someone had better be first in their league at whatever attribute it is, and yes Hall hardest Carolina League pitcher to hit by a lot checks out: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=9&stats=pit&qual=80&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,-1 His AVG allowed about 30 points better than Kris Bubic, gaining helium of his own, and naturally some Astro I've never heard of was closest to Hall.
  9. 2 points
  10. 2 points
    Skimming his background, I'm guessing he is (or at least once was) a premium athlete for a pitcher as BP 2015 reports he turned down an offer to quarterback Texas A&M. He pitched full A ball seasons in 2014/2015 and just 6 HR allowed in 41 starts seems good. The WHIPs got ugly, and I am guessing the underdeveloped part of the command manifested as sinkers too much below the zone to be competitive. The 4S vs. 2S observations above sound right - it's kind of reminiscent of the Astros and Gerrit Cole (why are you throwing so many sinkers?). On the 2S side he still has barely relieved, so there might also be the Jim Johnson/Zack Britton fork in the road to try if he can turbo it for 20 pitches. His 5.14/1.47 in the IL last year in the same ballpark as Keegan Akin's 4.73/1.51, and he's about 6 months older than Akin.
  11. 2 points
  12. 2 points
    Bigger name then talent. He's been a bleh sinker/slider guy most of his time in the majors (62 IP). Guessing the plan will be to have him to focus on his 4-seamer and try a go improving on a secondary offering Edit: Didn't see Luke's post's above mine, so...what he said
  13. 2 points
    Here’s what I saw when researching him for my MiLB FA piece. Sinker 90-94, ok pitch, but doesn’t miss many bats and can get barreled Above average slider Potential above average curveball, but it doesn’t play that way presently because he doesn’t locate it Below average changeup Scattershot command He did throw a 4S fastball on occasion that he a near vertical spin axis, so the play might be to shift away from the sinker to the 4S. Probably needs a curveball or change improvement as well to be able to get lefties out.
  14. 2 points
  15. 2 points
    OMG, the ghosts of Christmas past!
  16. 2 points
    Amen to that. Got a couple of good seasons from Sherrill, too.
  17. 2 points
    I don't think I'll be breaking any rules to say that Bedard had a "difficult" personality. Probably more true with the media, but didn't seem to make a lot of friends in the clubhouse either. Think he started a presser by saying he'd only answer three questions. When a reporter asked why, he said, "two questions to go" or something like that. But, it could have been someone else.
  18. 1 point
    Huge get by Locksley! https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps-football-recruiting/2019/12/18/21028250/rakim-jarrett-flips-to-maryland-5-star-receiver-lsu-commit-early-signing-day-2020-class
  19. 1 point
    Fake punt from their own 11. Call that play Rodney Dangerfield - NO respect.
  20. 1 point
    Webb stayed around long after he was effective. Jimmy Smith is still effective. Only question is what other teams are willing to pay him. If no one offers him a crazy contract I expect him to be back.
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
    And Roberts was the third I mentioned.
  23. 1 point
    The bright side is that Marial showed more in about 15 minutes than the Mitchell twins have shown all season.
  24. 1 point
    Yep, that is the only difference. He also likely negotiated what his salary will be in the minors, which hasn't been reported (as opposed to non-free agent minor-leaguers who are bound by whatever the team chooses to pay minor leaguers). He could also have negotiated an overall minimum salary for the season, and/or and opt-out date if he isn't in the majors by a certain date, but neither has been reported as of yet.
  25. 1 point
    I just like to give wildcard a hard time. Doesn't seem to bother him.
  26. 1 point
    His minor league numbers look ok and he really has only had 60 MLB innings. But his WHIP is 1.3+ in the minors.
  27. 1 point
    From the past number of wildcard posts, it looks like he has gone all-in with voice-to-text.
  28. 1 point
    He was at Toledo which is AAA in the International League.
  29. 1 point
    First. I do like kohl’s better then target but Burlington is about the same. Oh we are not talking about stores.
  30. 1 point
    Any team would be thrilled to develop a Sidney Ponson as well. 13 rWAR through 6 seasons and traded for a bunch of prospects to a contender. Not to mention Zack Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Roberts, Jerry Hairston, Zach Davies, Josh Hader, BJ Ryan, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa, Armando Benitez, Chris Hoiles, ...
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    I agree with this and Hall's control is an early season watch like a hawk thing. But beyond size and present control (maybe), change-up is the third leg of the stool that for me gives Rodriguez a little separation. Hall may still be required to throw off speed in fastball counts in 2020, he should just be better at it if last year's plan is working.
  33. 1 point
    I'm probably one of the biggest Tilly fans here, and I'll forever be thankful for his steady, stabilizing presence in our rotation at a time when we desperately needed it. That said, given where this franchise currently is, I'd just as soon use that flier on a, say, 25-28 y.o. with a clean arm, than on a soon-to-be 32-y.o. with a surgically repaired shoulder who hasn't pitched competitively since 2018. Let's move on.
  34. 1 point
    You don't. I do The O's are putting more technology, analysis and coaching into player development then we have every seen before. I am hoping it actually helps players develop to higher levels of performance.
  35. 1 point
    What stands out to me is that most of our rebuild will be waiting for the arms. With Hays and Mountcastle joining the O’s this year, the only building block offensive players in the system will be Rutschman and maybe Diaz or Henderson, with Rutschman moving up rapidly. We don’t want to rush Hall and Rodriguez. But it’s worth considering that the offense may be pretty decent sooner than expected. If Means and Cobb can perform reasonably well, and a few decent starters emerge from the group of Kremer, Lowther, Baumann, Bailey, Akin, and Hess, then things could trend upwards quicker than we anticipate. And I like those first three names in particular. Our system needs a few more years picking at the top of the draft, so I’m not sold that a quicker return to winning is entirely positive. But I think at the end of 2020 our attention will be on the bullpen and left side of the infield, with an eye towards being competitive sooner than we currently envision. I think once Mountcastle arrives, we’ll start looking at the rebuild differently, not as being in it’s infancy.
  36. 1 point
    Think my favorite part is them projecting our pick at #32. 😁
  37. 1 point
    Him, me, or both? I'm guessing both.
  38. 1 point
    PFF has the Ravens selecting Kenneth Murray a Middle Linebacker from Oklahoma at #32. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-2020-nfl-mock-draft-chase-young-lands-in-washington-with-the-second-pick Id be ecstatic with that selection https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2020kmurray.php
  39. 1 point
    Welcome to the game. I once had an article written about me in the Maryland Gazette in which the lady reporter took notes instead of recording my actual voice. So when my quotes came out they were all out of context and not even factual.
  40. 1 point
    And pitching a simulated game.
  41. 1 point
    That was one of the funniest things I'd ever seen, it was hilarious. Pretty sure you could hear how flummoxed the guy who asked the question was in the background 😂 I agree with brother @Frobby, watching Bedard when he was on was a thing of beauty. That curve was one of the nastiest. Seemed like he could drop it on the back foot of a right handed batter at will.
  42. 1 point
    Well, we better be winning by 2023 or Elias will be the ex GM of the Orioles.
  43. 1 point
    Yea, it doesn't rock. But it is Friday.
  44. 1 point
    So glad to see that Jones chose the Buffalos and not a soulless team like the Giants! They are a classy and fun team with a tradition of interesting foreign players. They split their games between the Osaka dome and the outdoor park in Kobe (maybe 30 miles away). The park in Kobe is an ideal spot to watch a game for those of you who are ever a threat to visit and Kobe is one of the nicest cities in Japan. Used to watch Ichiro there when he was with the Oryx Blue Wave. Back in 1990, Oriole Jim Traber (anyone remember him?) went to the Buffalos after his last game in the MLB in 1989 with the Birds. I lived near the stadium where the Buffalos played at the time and caught a lot of games. Traber was very predictable in going to certain bars after the games, so I would frequently go to the same bars with some friends. Traber loved to talk and tell stories. He's teammates clearly loved him even though they didn't have the foggiest idea what he was saying or doing half the time. I think he's actually a radio talk show host nowadays in his native Oklahoma. After a few beers, Traber was also predictable, he would want to go eat Korean barbecue, so on more than one occasion, I tagged along. I was 22, so all of this made a big impression on me. I'm pretty sure he was above 250 pounds at the time. The ladies at the restaurant would tease him about his size. The other famous heavy American baseball player from that era was Randy Bass, who helped the next-door team (the Hanshin Tigers) win their first championship in 50 years. The waitresses would tease Traber and call him Randy, though I think the meaning was lost on him. When the Tigers won that championship, the fans in Osaka had a mini riot and threw a giant statue of Colonel Sanders from KFC into the dotonburi river off Osaka's most famous bridge. Why? Not sure, but it was some kind of an homage to Bass. Ok, I've rambled a bit. Good luck Adam!!! Katobase Jones!!
  45. 1 point
    Maybe this isn't your intent, but I think you're kind of underselling Japanese pitchers. There are certainly MLB quality pitchers in the NBP. The average guy in Japan is probably more like a AAA pitcher, but there are 20, 30, 40 pitchers who could play in the majors right now. More than that if you set the bar at "could pitch for the Orioles or Tigers". There are a long list of US players who've gone to Japan to hit some dongs off sub-par pitchers and came back three months later with their tails between their legs. Just the other day I look up Matt Stairs, who spent over 20 years in the majors. In the middle of his career he spent 60 games in Japan OPSing .712. MLB minimum is about $560k this year. The median salary in Japan is about $800k. Baseball would be better off if there were leagues outside of MLB's influence that could afford to sign decent talent. Competition can do wonders.
  46. 1 point
    I went in June. Caught a Yakult Swallows game in Tokyo (actually vs Oryx). Nori Aoki was celebrating some milestone before the game but I could not tell what they were saying. My wife was the one who wanted to go to Japan. Catching a game there was literally my only request for the itinerary but she was delighted to oblige.
  47. 1 point
    Adam is well traveled internationally and is the type of guy who might really enjoy spending a few years in a foreign culture. He’d certainly be one if the best American players ever to play in Japan. (I don’t mean now, but in terms of his past major league career.)
  48. 1 point
    MLB is seeing a fairly dramatic exodus of guys dumping the current broken system for better times in Japan and Korea. Honestly, if you're Jones, why WOULDN'T you just say "to hell with waiting until March to get a minor league offer". Go hit some dongs off some sub-par pitchers, play the hero for another couple years, eat some interesting food for your instagram, and witness fans in the stands who actually care and pay attention to the game and cheer. There's literally only one downside if you're Jones and that's moving your family.
  49. 1 point
    Wow, they did it. Peter must be thrilled. Not a huge Nats fan or anything, but glad they won.
  50. 1 point
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