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Showing content with the highest reputation on 6/28/2020 in Posts

  1. 8 points
    If Elias shared the opinion that Martin was a likely perennial .300 hitter, high OBP, 20 homer guy, the only way he passes on him is if he thinks Kjerstad is a likely 3-5 hitter on a contending team. What you, Roll Tide, keep ignoring is this. What is likely is that on the Orioles board there is very little seperation between about 5 players, which likely included Martin, Veen, Lacy, Kjerstad, and a other. They said they were considering from a list of 5 players. Just as Fangraphs, BA, and other publications had significant differences on some players, the Orioles had there own rankings with opinios from different scouts, crosscheckers, analysts, Ciolek, and Elias. Some MAY have had Kjerstad higher. Elias MAY have thought internally that he liked Kjerstad better or very close in value to Martin. He may have felt this way about one or two others. He may have gotten a feel for what each would accept as the #2 pick. At this point he may have concluded he could get a player he liked more, as much, or very, very close to Martin AND get him for 2M less and use that money later in the draft. What you refuse go get through your head is the fact that media consensus had Martin 1-2 and Kjerstad 8-12 with Martin as clearly better. It would be logical to conclude that Elias saw the difference between the two a lot differently than media consensus. Get over it and lets see what happens.
  2. 4 points
    That really hampers what you can do the rest of the draft. To me you only do that if Martin was the no. 1 guy on your board and you feel blessed that you got him at 2.
  3. 4 points
    Nobody is claiming that signing amount didn’t factor in. They are suggesting that it’s possible ME thinks he can have his cake and eat it too. Drafting/Signing a player with comparable talent AND having more money to work with. to put it simply, he signed player A for ~$2M less than he would have player B. He thinks the difference between players A and B is far less than 2M
  4. 4 points
    The great thing about it, he looks like a powerful left handed hitter. This is rare.
  5. 4 points
    You think that’s the LIKELY outcome? I would think there’s a better chance that he’s Richie Martin 2.0. Most prospects fail.
  6. 4 points
    Obviously part of the reason they selected him was because he would take less than slot. That’s obvious and always has been. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t highest on their board and even if he wasn’t, they very likely saw such little difference between him and the others on their list that the money saved on him was worth drafting him. They weren’t considering a pitcher, rightly or wrongly. So, it was Kjerstad/Martin/Gonzalez/Veen(maybe) as the guys he was considering. Martin has position and power questions, Veen was a HSer and Gonzalez, while a good upside player, is a second baseman who had elevated stats playing in high altitude. Lots of pros and cons on all of these guys and no real sampling for this season to go off of. Combine all of those factors and it’s pretty obvious why they took Kjerstad imo.
  7. 3 points
    Terrific piece from David Laurila from Fangraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-former-white-sox-and-orioles-if-of-don-buford/
  8. 3 points
    But that doesn’t mean they felt Martin was a much better player. Put it another way..if they felt there was a wide gap between Martin and Kjerstad, I don’t think they take Kjerstad. If they valued Martin very highly, I think they take that player.
  9. 2 points
    Yes, he played the overslot game. Without question. That does not mean that, in his mind, he passed on a vastly superior prospect to take a significantly more inferior prospect in order to do it. You believe he has.
  10. 2 points
    Great post. I wish I had written it!
  11. 2 points
    If the post wasn't clear then I will try to do better in the future but I am not sure how this means I don't think that underslotting had nothing to do with it? We won't know if these teams sign their picks for under slot until they are signed. I think it is widely expected that Lacy signs for slot. If that is true then it wasn't an issue with that pick. What I meant is actually what I said and not your interpretation. I am done discussing this with you. I will agree to disagree.
  12. 2 points
    There were reports that Boras told the Orioles that they wanted #1 money from the Orioles, which would have been over-slot for the second pick.
  13. 2 points
    Thanks for trying to speak for me but you are completely wrong. I never said that underslotting wasn't part of it. Clearly it was. That doesn't mean that it was the only part of it. ME says that he's the guy they wanted and I don't have any reason to think he is lying.
  14. 2 points
    #50THANNIVERSARY On this day in 1970 the Orioles lost to the Washington Senators 4-3 in 12 innings. Paul Blair reached on a walk in the 12th inning and scored on an error by Washington's catcher, Paul Casanova, to give the Birds the lead. Washington won the game on a 2-run walk-off homerun by Rick Reichardt off of Eddie Watt. Washington pitching limited the Orioles to 7 hits spread out over the 12 innings. BOX SCORE
  15. 2 points
    This is one of the things I hate about this board. There are a few guys who discount others thoughts and opinions by saying that they are wrong. When in fact I may be wrong in your opinion. I certainly know how the slotting system works!! Thanks for being condescending.
  16. 2 points
    Laurila: You mentioned Jim Palmer. I assume you know you had a lot of success against him (seven for 13, with three walks, and no strikeouts). Buford: “Yes, I remind him of that. He doesn’t say anything.” At the 1970 Orioles reunion at Camden, I was at the luncheon table with Jim Palmer, Roy Firestone, and a couple from Iowa. I had seen the O's vs. the Tokyo Giants in Tokyo Japan in 1971, when I was 9. (My first pro game, and the reason I became an O's fan) Before that reunion, I scoured the internet for any box scores or info I could find on their trip. The only one I found was a game in which Palmer gave up 3 homers. I mentioned it, and he remembered each of the homers, the pitch he threw, and called the park a bandbox. The man has a steel trap memory. I'd guess he remembers facing Buford.... I had a fantasy back in the day LJ Hoes would be a Buford re-incarnate. I also thought I would marry Elle Macpherson.
  17. 2 points
    I’m wondering if we could see a different strategy with respect to service time than we usually see. You’ll have a fair number of players who might have been deemed major league ready by the end of a full season, but they won’t be ready now. But you could do things like put DL Hall on the 60-man roster and let him pitch 2-3 games towards the end of the season, knowing that in 2021 he’ll be spending at least half the year in the minors so you’re not really messing up his service time. I think it will be interesting to see if teams do some unconventional things like this, particularly the Orioles, who may as well experiment.
  18. 2 points
    Having a chip on your shoulder is half the appeal of being an Orioles fan.
  19. 2 points
    Yep, I get it you're a close the world down and hide until this is all (maybe never) kind of person. I get it, because I've seen some of the skewed information getting pushed lately by the media. We are just going to have to disagree. I think it will be completely fine to have these camps and for the ones that end up getting COVID, few will have any kind of symptoms that will cause any problems past a few weeks. Honestly though, I believe MLB will end up not doing this because almost all corporations are either pandering or taking the least risk as possible right now. I gotta be completely honest though and say I just don't care enough anymore to get upset. You could tell me tomorrow that the MLB season was cancelled once again and I'd be ambivalent. I'd rather see baseball this year, but if it doesn't happen for either COVID or safety reasons (since most cities are violent, unsafe hellholes right now) I'm not going to lose any sleep.
  20. 1 point
    That guy makes me feel like a praying mantis.
  21. 1 point
    Martin goes back to Vandy and we take him #1 next year and get him for under slot.
  22. 1 point
    That new prospect smell. He hasn't disappointed us yet.
  23. 1 point
    The catchers were all just really good at framing those.
  24. 1 point
    I will get this page updated for the resumption of "spring trainign" by sometime late this evening.
  25. 1 point
    Martin went #5 so apparently the O's were not the only team who pass on signing him for #1 money.
  26. 1 point
    I agree that this is a good post and represents a good sound argument for your opinion. I want to clarify one thing. I may not have been clear. It is not my opinion that Kjerstad was ME's top BPA. How could I know that? What I said was (IIRC) that I have no reason not to believe him when he says that. People were saying that Correa couldn't have possibly been their BPA when he was drafted. Maybe he was and maybe he wasn't. Let's just hope as O's fans that it works out as well.
  27. 1 point
    It’s a 60 game season with expanded rosters at the start. Some of these vet pitchers that make the team could be released in September. You aren’t trying to get through a normal season here.
  28. 1 point
    Seems like Elias choices were: 1) Kjerstad (underslot), Mayo and Baumler (overslot) 2) Martin (overslot) 3) Lacy for #2 slot money I would have taken Lacy for slot but I understand with Elias' history with 1st round pitchers why he did what he did.
  29. 1 point
    I have no doubt that if the O's had taken Martin with the #2 pick Boras would hold out for #1 pick money of 8.4m. Then the O's would have been in a similar situation as the Blue Jays are facing.
  30. 1 point
    Toronto is one of the have-nots of baseball. They’ve had like 2 good seasons in my lifetime.
  31. 1 point
    What did you expect them to say? We'd rather have had player X but we had to settle for Martin because one of the teams ahead of us chose the player we really wanted.
  32. 1 point
    That article means nothing. So, you believe the Orioles took a player they rated far worse on their board, with the second pick?
  33. 1 point
    I'll believe the Jays are willing to spend two #1's and a #2 on Martin when I see it and not a moment before. Smart move is to call his bluff and collect the pick for next year if he goes back to school.
  34. 1 point
    Watched a couple of the games, and was struck by how many future MLB managers there were between the ‘70 Reds and Orioles. Just off the top of my head and not doing any research, and just from the players in uniform (not any of the coaches) I counted seven guys who’d be managers someday. I suspect that if I dug into the internet and looked up every player there’d be a couple more that made it as well. That feels like a lot of future managers on the active rosters of just two teams.
  35. 1 point
    Just because of draft status? No. if you take the tenth best player second because he'll sign for #7 money why should his prospect ranking go up?(Hypothetically)
  36. 1 point
    He just disagrees with the underslot strategy and seems to be somewhat resistant to any counter arguments in its favor, I think. @Roll Tide:what if in five years, Kjerstad is an All-Star reserve, Mayo is in the top 5 in ROY voting, and one of the other guys is an above replacement level contributing regular, but Austin Martin wins the AL MVP? Would you he happy with the draft? This is how hypothetical it all is.
  37. 1 point
    I'm old enough to have seen all six World Series (in person for a game or two in three of them) in which the Orioles played. Not quite as impressive as Jim Palmer -- he pitched in all six.
  38. 1 point
    Very true and I believe they did. My word could of been a little different I think honestly by going underslot selecting Kjerstad it allowed them to get two guys they coveted in the 4th and 5th, so they end up with 6 guys they really like. Whereas taking Martin probably would not if allowed them to get guys they valued as much in the later two rounds so the value you get buy taking Kjerstad nets you two additional guys you really like is IMO greater value and adds more talent to the system than if you take Martin who will eat up the money not allowing you to sign as great of talent in the later rounds.
  39. 1 point
    So I read the draft as if the O’s by taking Kjerstad were able to get three guys they coveted whereas if they had taken a Martin probably really would have gotten just the one guy they really coveted. Only time will tell if it was the right move but I like it. Martin would really have to be elite and viewEd head and shoulders above Kjerstad to take him there. the O’s must not of thought so and see more value in who they ended up with.
  40. 1 point
    Drafting a player based off of that is different than thinking a player throws 30 successful innings can be penciled in to do very well in 2021. Its 2 different thought processes that don’t really go together imo.
  41. 1 point
    It was also new to me that Davey Johnson played college hoops at Texas A&M. He would I think have been a couple years before the famous Texas Western team from the Glory Road movie. And because internet... https://www.pinterest.jp/pin/496592296383558076/?amp_client_id=CLIENT_ID(_)&mweb_unauth_id={{default.session}}&amp_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.jp%2Famp%2Fpin%2F496592296383558076%2F&amp_expand=true
  42. 1 point
    It's not so much total attendance as it is per-game, which is down about 12-13% from the 2008 high. And that's not particularly alarming, except when combined with the fact that the median age of a baseball fan is 55, and among people under 40 baseball is the 4th most popular sport to watch We are apparently well past the point where nice stadiums have enough of an impact to overcome quality of team. The 90s stadium honeymoon is a distant memory. Miami is a train wreck, and KC, the Orioles, Detroit, Pittsburgh, the White Sox... all kind of struggling with drawing fans. And Cleveland might be most worrying, with a 90+ win team barely clearing 20k a game. Several of these teams' attendances are off by half compared to 20 years ago. Baseball isn't dying, but it has some negative trends it needs to try to address.
  43. 1 point
    His 99 ranking and Martin's 16 rankings are completely based on their draft ratings. There is no way BA admits to any suggestion that they were wrong. They will continue to rank Martin higher unless he (Martin) is a bust. That's always been their standard operating procedure.
  44. 1 point
    It was a weaker draft at the top.
  45. 1 point
    Seems about right, order-wise. How many slots did he slide down for the standard oriole penalty?
  46. 1 point
    Couldn't help think of this....Im pretty sure this show was on when you last posted. 😎
  47. 1 point
    I mean, I could just say the opposite for you, right? I know we both think we're right here, so I guess there's no point. I'll just say, I work at Hopkins and I get a daily, comprehensive look at the science and the data re: COVID. And there are plenty of conservative scientists there, by the way. Science knows no politics. So many people have died in this country because we were slow to act and because misinformation/science denial was disseminated to the public from extremely influential people, many of them in the media. Like you say, we'll just have to disagree. I mean no disrespect, truly, and I'll move along and refrain from further posts that could be construed as political. (I'm not sure how the pandemic got to be so political, but I can't say I'm surprised either.) Where we do agree is that corporate liability is playing a huge role in MLB. That, and we agree on the ambivalence.
  48. 1 point
    Healthy adults in their 20’s and 30’s are at very low risk. Most that test positive are asymptomatic. Those that have symptoms are usually mild cases. If you’re over 65, with a serious health concern, and living in a nursing home, you’re probably not a professional baseball player.
  49. 0 points
    I think there is going to be some minor league baseball https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bs-sp-wp-southern-maryland-blue-crabs-baseball-20200621-sn73g5arlrgdzlcj2btcf7mdei-story.html
  50. -3 points
    Really? When is the last time you’ve been to a city? Pretty ignorant from the site’s owner, to be honest....
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