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Showing content with the highest reputation on 1/11/2021 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    This is part adrenaline from a Ravens 90th percentile weekend, and part going for a personal best at the Wagnerian staring out window waiting for baseball, with a pinch of just because the Internet can. Here's Elias's 2006 senior year Yale team. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/college/schools/stats.asp?Y=2006&T=20314 He had missed a year to injury so was a mature 23 that last spring. The team's youngest member, Age 18 Ryan Lavarnway,, nonetheless became the catcher, and was 2nd on the team in OPS. I guess that's what big league talent can do. On the old pitcher/young catcher thing, this makes me want to say Alex Cobb can pitch to Adley in Week 2, and like it! 2006 Elias got 6 starts and 5 relief appearances, averaging 3 IP/gm. That's some Zac Lowther/Kevin Smith/Keegan Akin stuff a couple years out if most of our A guys can keep it together. He seems to have had his best season at his youngest before he missed a year. 2002 freshman year team: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/college/schools/stats.asp?Y=2002&T=20314 Craig Breslow was a Senior, is now a Cubs AGM, and he and Elias were the team's two IP leaders, so there's the in to get Bryant, Baez and Hendricks this July if the Orioles can beat the 90th percentile thing.
  2. 2 points
  3. 2 points
    From Fangraphs: “Per Statcast, Schwarber has been 29 runs below average as an outfielder in his career. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the majors over that period, ahead of only noted butchers Nick Castellanos, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera, and Shin-Soo Choo.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-schwarber-is-the-newest-national/
  4. 2 points
    On the flip side, the team added Yolmer Sanchez to the roster and jettisoned Nunez.
  5. 2 points
    That's fine. My opinion and my post still stand.
  6. 2 points
    As I said in a few chats during my prospect rankings, I almost jumped Baumann over Hall because of what I heard at the alternate site this year. Saying that, I agree that Baumann is probably the most underrated prospects nationally for me. This is a guy who was throwing 98 MPH in the 9th inning of no-hitter in 2019 ay AA. If his change has really come around as some reports suggested and the slider has really become a K pitch for him, then he's got as much chance as anyone in the organization right now of becoming a solid major league starter. I just can't wait to see these guys back on the field and playing again.
  7. 1 point
    Mike Elias has already stated that 2021 will not be a year to go for it. The switch will not be flipped this coming season. But what kind of a team is he looking to build for his non contending year? This off season he has referred to Ryan Mountcastle as a left fielder more than a first baseman. Hyde often used Austin Hays in left and Cedric Mullins in center last season which gave him a better defensive outfield. But Elias has referred to those two as competing centerfielders. This sound like an offense over defense approach. What about Yusniel Diaz? He has been called close. Someone that will debut in 2021. The timing of his call up is unknown and since he has not played AAA yet he will probably begin the season there. Its will probably be up to him to push his way to the majors. Mountcastle in left opens first for Mancini. It also allows two offensive players to compete for DH -- DJ Stewart and Chris Shaw at least until Diaz is promoted. Now we hear the hint that Elias may considering Jonathan Villar if the price is right. Villar's best position is second base. But second is also defensive minded Yolmer Sanchez best position. Its also Pat Valaika and Ramon Urias best defensive position. But if they sign Villar it would be for his offense over defense. It would push the other three toward SS and 3B to find playing time. Richie Martin, Sanchez and Valaika are all probably better defensive SS than Villar. Also Elias could acquire more than one infielder. Villar to the O's is just a rumor. But Mountcastle in left is something Elias has stated which may make room for Stewart/Shaw. I have to wonder whether offense in 2021 will be priorities over defense. Time will tell.
  8. 1 point
    John Means was asked and responded to what has been the difference between player development under Duquette and Elias. He says that the difference is communication and he thinks there is more of a plan now how be become a major league player. How to improve. He says that coming up he didn't not know what he had to improve to become a successful major leaguer. Under Elias/Holt now everyone knows what it takes to be a big leaguer. Now its all about repertiore, its all about pitch development, its all about spin rate. And these guys have all the tricks in the world to do that. Here is the whole interview: (response to this question at the 6:00 minute mark) https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/hot-stove-john-means
  9. 1 point
    What else is he going to say? If we’ve learned nothing else about Manfred, we’ve learned he says whatever he is told to say, And it means nothing
  10. 1 point
    It will be interesting to see when fans will be able to return. I suspect some states will allow limited numbers like they have in football. Hopefully after the All-Star game stadiums can be open and close to normal. I am going to get my vaccine as soon as they let me and get back to normal life.
  11. 1 point
    In response to an issue Sports Guy brought up in another thread today, I decided to have a look at all the international amateur free agent players who debuted in the majors in the 2013-19 period who rank in the top 20 in their overall debut class in rWAR. Of the 140 overall debut players (7 years x 20 players/year), 35 of them, or 25%, were signed as international amateur free agents. This does not include older players signed from the Asian professional leagues, but it does include the older Cuban “amateurs.” Looking at the 35, I break them down into several categories: The Sky-High Priced Cubans (4). These include Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel and Yoan Moncada. Each was signed for at least $30 mm, either via a major league contract (Puig, Abreu, Gurriel) or a signing bonus (Moncada). All of these players were older than the typical Dominican or Venezuelan amateur. The Million Dollar Club (8). This includes Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($3.9 mm), Gary Sanchez ($3 mm), Eloy Jimenez ($2.8 mm), Yordan Alvarez ($2 mm), Gleyber Torres ($1.7 mm), Rafael Devers ($1.5 mm), Juan Soto ($1.5 mm), and Carlos Martinez ($1.5 mm). The Upper Middle Class ($400 k - $999 k) (5). Here you will find Willson Contreras ($850 k), Max Kepler ($800 k), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($700 k), Willy Adames ($420 k) and Xander Bogaerts ($410 k). The Middle Class ($100 k - $399 k) (8). These players include Ozzie Albies ($350 k), Antonio Senzatela ($250 k), Luis Severino ($225 k), German Marquez ($225 k), Eduardo Rodriguez ($175 k), Odebel Herrera ($160 k), Ketel Marte ($100 k) and Ronald Acuna ($100 k). The Bargain Basement Guys ($10 k – $ 99 k) (7). Found here are Jonathan Schoop ($90 k), Jose Ramirez ($50 k), Marcell Ozuna ($49 k), Luis Arraez ($40 k), David Peralta ($35 k), Eugenio Suarez ($10 k) and Yonny Chirinos ($10 k). The Mystery Boys (3). I couldn’t find any signing bonus information on Ender Inciarte, Luis Castillo or Jaime Barria. I’d probably infer they were all in the bargain basement category. I’m sure if you waited ten years, you’d find that these 35 players were not necessarily the best 35 international amateurs who debuted in the 2013-19 window. But, it’s a pretty good sampling and shows that teams can find good players at any bonus level. Keep in mind that for every player signed for $1 mm and up, there are a couple of dozen guys who are signed for less than that. 1,022 players were signed in the 2019-20 signing period. Only about 12% of them got bonuses over $300 k, and 3% over $1 mm.
  12. 1 point
  13. 1 point
    A Hays, Mullins, Santander OF is actually pretty nice defensively. Put Mancini at 1B and Mountcastle at DH and maybe figure out something else for CF when playing a lefty and I feel like it’s a good approach. That all depends on how well Mullins can hit. I’d be okay with a low bar set for him offensively though as long as his defense is above average.
  14. 1 point
    Well, we define unrealistic differently. Fairly big, sudden improvements in teams happen pretty often. It seems like most seasons these days some team has a 20+ game improvement. In 2020 for example, the Padres went from 70 wins to playing at a 100-win pace. In 2019 the Twins went from 78 wins to 101. In 2018 the A’s went from 75 to 97. Etc.
  15. 1 point
    Every developmental effort in the world benefits from a clear roadmap regardless the subject matter. I'm not sure how this is such a big revelation in MLB / MiLB, but apparently it was - and it was not that long ago. When you don't know what you don't know, there's no clear path forward.
  16. 1 point
  17. 1 point
    If Strasburg and Corbin reveal themselves to have been all used up #FlagsFlyForever, '22 Max here as Super Sutcliffe is my favorite scenario for tweaking Nationals in-laws. Soto being a playoff contending core all by himself is a long range problem, though that hasn't stopped me from offering New Year's wishes for them to enjoy their last year with the better MASN-area team. If only trades weren't verboten, Means high for Kieboom low might be an interesting bone to pick with him having stumbled out of the gate. That said, the many holes downstaff are false - lavish spenders anyway, a championship to "really" defend in that fandom's mind, I imagine them vacuuming up a few good-ish pitchers before OD, and maybe telling us what they really think of Kieboom.
  18. 1 point
    Well, he says “contend for a division title.” Did the O’s contend for a division title in 2012? Yes. 2016? More debatable, but we were a game out of the division lead with 17 games to play. Now, if you think Tampa or the Yankees are going to win 100 games in 2022, no I don’t think we are a contender to do that. But after watching the O’s go from 69-93 to 93-69 in 2012, I was reminded that sometimes change comes faster than you’d expect.
  19. 1 point
  20. 1 point
    I don't really know anything about the amateur draft prospects anymore, so I usually go to the below link and click on the little black "Report" box to the right to get a quick blurb. I know FanGraphs is not end all/be all, but the quick synopsis help me get an idea of who the player is and what the could be capable of. Just in case it helps: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0
  21. 1 point
    In all seriousness, the answer some are trying to get is worthy of a full blown research study. There are so many confounders and unknowns that it's impossible for some guys on a message board to look at public data and categorically figure out where to target the money. Heck, I'd say it's impossible even for insiders to come up with the simple answers we're looking for. Consider this hypothetical: Expensive players average $1.5 million. There are 20 signed, so total spending is $30 million. Total WAR over time is 60. ROI is 2 WAR/$million. Middle players average $500k. There are 60 signed, so total spending is $30 million. Total WAR is 90, so ROI is 3 WAR/$million. Lower players average is $100k. There are 300 signed, so total spending is $30 million. Total WAR is 75, so ROI is $2.5 WAR/$million. What do these numbers tell you? I'd argue they tell you absolutely nothing. If you just look at this data, you'd say the best ROI is in the middle range, so go there. But what if that ROI is driven by a single player or two? What if it's driven by a single org or two? What if a few orgs spend a lot but get almost 0 ROI? What if it's skewed by legacy players like Tatis and Vlad Jr.? What if there are certain camps in the DR, or certain buscones, who end up with better players? What if the ML organization has a bottom 10 minor league system over a 5 year period? What if the middle or lower WAR is driven by guys who agreed with teams very young? What if players entered pricing areas because they did or did not have room on whatever rosters those guys were going to be allocated to? I could go on, but at best you can find correlation; not causation. The point is only measurable in hindsight. You need people on the ground with good relationships. People who know the kids, their handlers, etc. You need good player development. You need to help a young boy turn into a man. Oh, and you need to find the best players regardless of cost. The bottom line for me is we have to trust Koby Perez and Mike Elias to find the right people, make good deals and then develop them. It's just way too early to know that process is actually working. What we do know is they're committed to that process and that they're spending most of their budget annually. The rest is hype. Time is the only judge.
  22. 1 point
    My very small study had a limited purpose, which was just to get some group of relatively successful international amateur players and figure out what kinds of bonuses they got. It’s not intended to be fully representative or very scientific — more like a back of the napkin thing. In the period of my study, probably 350 international amateurs debuted in the majors. Knowing that 1,022 foreign amateurs were signed in 2019, I’d guess that it took 5,000-7,000 foreign amateur signings to generate those 350 players. Maybe 150 or so got million dollar bonuses. That’s completely a guess. I suspect that if I hunted around I’d find a much more systematic study of those signings and the payoffs in the various ranges than I’m able to do. Also keep in mind that almost all the players in my study are now between ages 22-28 (except the Cuban guys). Some are really early in their careers. So who will have a long, great career and who just had a good season or two is yet to be determined for many of these guys.
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