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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/23/2020 in all areas

  1. 5 points
  2. 3 points
    Yes, because they're typically the best athletes and can pick up a different position. Adam Jones started off as a SS before moving to CF.
  3. 3 points
    You have called Mike Elias a liar several times in your posts in the past few days. You have repeatedly said this was a bad decision. You are entitled to your opinion, as we all are. Despite several posters trying to explain the logic to you intelligently, you remain steadfast in your criticism and that any opinion you do not share is not legitimate. The opinion of 30 major league teams is that he is not worth his projected arbitration salary. Is that legitimate? I am done. We have beat this to death. Down arrow me again, I dig it. I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I think we should argue with other people for a while. I need space. 😂
  4. 3 points
    Mayo says "If you told me (Adley) would be in Baltimore by the All Star break, I would have no trouble believing that." And Steve Melewski says Elias has indicated that Adley will begin the season at AA. I have not heard either of this things before. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/11/talking-os-farm-with-mlbpipelinecoms-jonathan-mayo.html
  5. 3 points
    If no one is going to pay him 2+ million than he isn't worth 2+ million.
  6. 3 points
    No team was willing to pay that, so I guess he isn't worth that, not right now anyway. 🤷‍♂️
  7. 3 points
    Hard to agree with any of this. We aren't loaded with LH power. We have room for him in AAA. He has an option and if we need the 40 man spot, we can try to DFA him and pass him thru waivers. And a .947 OPS looks pretty good to me, even in PCL. Or are you focusing only on 72 MLB at bats in 2 cups of coffee? This is a minor transaction that could bear fruit at little to no cost or risk. Why get distraught over this?
  8. 3 points
    Obviously this opens the door to the O's releasing Davis. Why pay him to put up a 30 OPS+ when you can get Shaw to do it for the league minimum.
  9. 2 points
    Anthony Santander has a career slash line of .252/.292/.467. He was selected in the Rule 5 draft after playing no higher than A+ and struggled during his Rule 5 period split between 2017-18 due to injuries. He has fared much better since getting called up in 2019, and in 2020 slashed .261/.315/.575. His season ended prematurely with an oblique injury. Austin Hays has a career slash line of .272/.320/.424, comprised of a shaky 2017 debut after being promoted from AA, a strong 2019 performance after a less-inspiring minor league season, and then a .279/.328/.393 performance in a somewhat larger sample this year. He’s had trouble staying healthy the last three seasons, missing time this year with a fractured rib. So what do we get out of these two next year, either in terms of availability or performance? I will leave the availability issue to the baseball gods. Neither player has a single, chronic injury, and I don’t know that they have a greater chance of future injury than any other player. Hays might, due to his aggressive style of play in the outfield. But, I’m not going to speculate on that. Hays, I think, has considerably more power than he showed in 2020. I think his BA and OBP from 2020 (.279/.328) are about what I expect from him, but add 30-50 points of SLG. So that would put his OPS in the .755-.780 range in 2021. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him at .255/.303/.442. I think those are low on BA/OBP and maybe aggressive on ISO. Santander is sort of the opposite - his ISO of .314 last year does not seem sustainable. Again I think his BA and OBP from last season are pretty realistic. Put me down for .775-.800 for him, with a little lower BA/OBP than Hays but a bit more power. Steamer has him at .262/.312/.479, which looks about right to me. if we could get that rate of production and 900+ PA from them, I’d be very happy.
  10. 2 points
    Wow. I’d hate to see what you’d predict if you did mean to be a downer.
  11. 2 points
    I think that says more about your definition of succeed than it does anything about Mountcastle.
  12. 2 points
    It will be a very interesting day this week on how many guys get non tendered and not just the Orioles. Lots of reports about how much teams lost and they expect many players to hit free agency after their arbitration is declined. This class is rather weak in terms of top talent but the market could get flooded with players and then add in the uncertainty of the start of the season could make off season fun to watch.
  13. 2 points
    Dan Straily was second in the league in ERA with a 2.5 over 194 2/3 innings.
  14. 2 points
    Have you seen him play, or maybe watched video of Shaw? I am about 30 minutes into it, and there is a lot to like and some to not. The major league stats, no. But the 6-04 225-230 pound athletic frame and 70 power that he has shown throughout his minor league time, yes. Looks like the hands work well. His load can be late, sometimes gets the foot down late, and he gets long at times. He sometimes has a leg kick, sometimes not. Maybe get him to simplify the lower half and take some of the hand load out to simplify his timing. He looks like a pull hitter, at least in the Fangraphs spray chart in his MLB time. He moves well for a big guy, but a 40-45 runner. Arm looks like about a 50. I can see why they took him. He has an option, whereas Nunez did not. LH power bats are not a common thing. If they like him, they may not waive him for a while, despite the nearly 50% k rate in 82 MLB at bats. Someone else will grab him. I just watched him hit a 468 foot home run , albeit in Colorado, but it was a bomb. https://www.mlb.com/player/chris-shaw-622046?stats=career-r-hitting-minors&year=2020 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-shaw/17738/stats?position=OF
  15. 2 points
  16. 1 point
    Mullins probably isn't on the radar for anyone. I know he's not on the radar for SG. He's a 4th outfielder. We're obviously going to get into his sample size for 2020 because that's what we do around here. He hit .271, which was respectable and a .315 on base percentage which is not good. We also need to factor in that a fair amount of his hits were bunts. And is that sustainable? I'm assuming not. It's not a plan for moving him forward. Vavra could be a good get if he can hit and play the position, I have no faith in Hays.
  17. 1 point
    Probably the best item I’ve seen for a winning team in any sport.
  18. 1 point
    Per Baseball Savant, Santander’s hard hit % was in the 38th percentile, so below average. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/anthony-santander-623993?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb I think SG is fundamentally right that people should not put too much stock in stats accrued over 37 games. At the same time, like you I see Santander as a player who is still improving.
  19. 1 point
    Good for that guy. Glad he found success somewhere.
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    The first pick in the draft cost 8m. The 15th pick cost about 3.3m. Spending 12m on that pick is something the Dodgers or Yankee might do. But not a responible mid market team. There are teams that have large markets and more money as a result and the way to beat them in not trying to outspend them. Elias is doing the right thing to beat the big market teams. Better analytics, player development, sensible trades for prospects, international signings are all things that will get the O's there.
  22. 1 point
    Yeah, I think the odds no more than 50/50 that Shaw even makes it through the off-season on the 40-man roster, let alone ever plays for the team.
  23. 1 point
    I'm not excited that the team is making moves because guys are cheap, especially when the other option is around $2 million, which should be chump change for major league organizations. I'm just not sure I get this particular set of skills. Now perhaps Elias is going to DFA him and try to sneak him into the minor league system as depth. I guess there are worse guys to do this with, but I really would like to think this is a transition year where the Orioles are starting to bring up guys that will be contributors to a winning future and not place holders.
  24. 1 point
    I’m not sure I buy your Baseball Savant argument. It’s not like Nunez started playing yesterday. We’ve seen him perform for parts of three seasons. His style of hitting (somewhat low BA and OBP, fairly high K rate, good power) has some value. The average team had a .227/.312/.407 OPS at DH last year. Nunez has hit .253/.319/.463 for us the last three years, and better than that last year. So he is a good enough hitter to help some team primarily at DH.
  25. 1 point
    I’d be totally against this approach. It’s the worst of all worlds: get his service clock running in 2021 but get very little major league experience out of it. For me, I’d like him up by July or not at all.
  26. 1 point
    A good swing is not defined by the results. Also, remember that SF Giants are not know to produce good young hitters through draft and development. If you are the Orioles, you have to believe in your coaches and development staff when compared with other teams. With this much in his tank, you have to take a shot on a big power guy like this. I watched some Spring Training at bats as well. He hit 4-5 HR's in the last few years. One video had him on the same field as Hanser Alberto in February 2019, lol.
  27. 1 point
    It's a poor man's Brandon Belt fantasy come to life! I do confess the tiniest shred of interest in what left-handed sluggers first weeks outside AT&T as their home field look like, but he and Renato trading spots are just another mid-rebuild expression of what the churn of replacement level players looks like in real life.
  28. 1 point
    Cheaper than Nunez and lefty. That said I would be surprised if he makes our Opening Day roster. A little surprised to lose Eshelman but I'm not broken up about it.
  29. 1 point
  30. 1 point
    I’m really thinking it’s a “buy low, sell high” move as Shaw hasn’t been too impressive in his limited time in the Majors, plus being at position(s) that aren’t exactly barren for the Orioles.
  31. 1 point
    Im obviously in the minority here but i liked Wieters. Did he live up to the hype? No. How many truly do? Was he a damned good catcher? Yes, i value switch-hitting good defensive catchers with some pop. Could he run? I could run about the same but you can't have everything, that position wears a body down.
  32. 1 point
  33. 1 point
    I do think 3B is one of the harder positions to find a good player unless you develop or trade for one because they rarely are found on the DFA or Rule 5 markets. Thankfully, with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo to a lesser extent in the Organization, there are two-three potential impact players who could end up there. In the meantime, I think they will probably end up giving a guy like Bannon an opportunity at some time next year if they don't find a better alternative to Ruiz this offseason or at the end of next spring through DFAs. Ruiz is a guy that Elias had ties to from his Houston scouting days, and if Ruiz was more athletic and could play other infield positions and outfield he could have value as a utility guy, but he doesn't hit consistently enough to be a good everyday guy at the major league level.
  34. 1 point
    It’s going to be interesting to see how AR immediately compares to Wieters. I was slammed on this site for questioning Wieters the first time I saw him. His swing was slow/long,l and lacked athleticism right off the bat. He never looked the part of an elite guy. He just didn’t look like naturally gifted like the elite of the elite do. From the video I have seen of AR, I don’t get that impression but that’s not exactly the best sample size I saw either.
  35. 1 point
    Getting caught another time would put him out for a year... Wait, what did I just say?! Dose at will!
  36. 1 point
    Right, but Stewart and Mullins get fewer AB's with Hays and Santander starting. Also, all 3 bats you have listed are RH. I'm not arguing the point that Nunez offers some level of relatively cheap production. He does. It's just that what he currently offers doesn't hold a lot of value. My only concern, voiced by Frobby, is that a player, at 26, and after 2 years, may have another level in him. The Orioles obvious don't feel that way about Nunez. If Nunez is what he is, I have no problem giving his AB's to Stewart and Mullins. If he has no trade value at all, then I can live with releasing him and saving 1.5M, or the difference between him and someone making the minimum.
  37. 1 point
    The only interesting question here is, how does this compare with previous off-season comments that Davis has made? It is laughable that every spring he shows up and offers some variation of the,” last year was bad this year will be better because I have changed” comment. It’s BS, he knows it, we know he knows it and he knows we know it. Mike too. But nobody’s gonna say it out loud. I swear, “the emperors new clothes” is perhaps the most encompassing fable of all time. Because that’s what we’ve got here.
  38. 1 point
    Anderson not Davis. Yea, Cano was using stuff designed in the early 60's. Not something you want to cheap out on.
  39. 1 point
    They must be terrible side effects if hitting .115 is a reality he can deal with.
  40. 1 point
    I think folks are being overly rough on Chris. He was making real progress last spring and it's obvious the abbreviated spring training really hurt him. I think we should expect this change in approach to have a positive impact.
  41. 1 point
    I agree. The only counter point I have to this is with regards to Mullins in CF, Hays can take less of a beating and maybe stay healthy for the first time in his career. He needs to do that badly. His all-out style in CF makes him, and it might break him. I think Mullins covers more ground, and more efficiently, but with less arm and less offensive potential. I think Hays is star material, but he has to stay healthy to get there. And I think the DH will be rotated, but perhaps Stewart should get the most consistent at bats there initially.
  42. 1 point
    It’s kind of funny how often you say exactly the same thing, when so many people have presented logical rebuttals. I am at the point where it’s not fun anymore, so I’m going to go back to shopping with my wife, we’ll argue about something else tomorrow, and I look forward to it.
  43. 1 point
    So you're going to arbitration with Nunez just to have someone to maybe hit marginally better vs lefties? I mean, maybe money is a factor, but in terms of bang for buck I have no problem with them letting Nunez walk. Sure it is "all about money" -- it is all about not wasting money. Also losing Nunez creates another 40 man spot. If you keep him, you risk losing Wells, Mattson, or Bannon. Which of those guys do you want to see on another time so that Nunez can DH vs lefties?
  44. 1 point
    Stewart is not as good a defensive OFer as Hays, Mullins or Santander. He not as good a hitter as Mancini or Mountcastle at DH. I think it will take injuries to get Stewart regular at bats. And I agree with you that when Diaz is promoted it makes it even harder for Stewart to get at bats. IMO what Stewart offers the team is depth. I think one of Elias' major goals this off season is to replace Ruiz at 3B. He may be optioned instead of being DFA'd but I doubt he is the starting 3B next year.
  45. 1 point
    Sounds like your mind is made up and there is no point in discussing it with you.
  46. 1 point
    First rounders from other teams left unprotected. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-picks-that-went-unprotected-in-the-2020-rule-5-draft/
  47. 1 point
    He knows how other players played at Bowie and data unrelated to injuries. Maybe he's happy with the next man up. There's lots of info we don't know that has nothing to do with injuries and it's silly to only focus on injuries as info we don't know. Maybe he's traded for 100 SS's because he was tired of our effort to corner the 1B/DH market and the roster that has 1B types being tried at 3B, LF and RF at times. Maybe he does want a team that can play solid defense all around. Although he does officially know what Kjerstad had, so that's medical info he knows we don't... I'm sure there is more that isn't disclosed that can provide more then you assume to be true. Maybe he thinks he can just get Nunez back cheaper. All that being said, money is part of it. Which has cause arguments over Villar and other players too. This isn't really a shock based on the expectation when Elias was brought in. It truly blows my mind people are really this worried over Nunez.
  48. 1 point
    I have a few takeaways from this post. 1. I don't think it's so much that the money is put in a "spend later account" as much as it is that by trimming the fat as much as possible during a rebuild, you can get a bit more ownership buy-in to do a full rebuild rather than some half-a** job where you plug in fillers like Jay Payton part way through because interest has plummeted so far. If you can make the bottom line still look okay despite the rebuild, ownership is going to be more likely to support it--even if it drags on. I think it can also, potentially, buy goodwill for later where the ownership may be willing to over-extend for a year or two, particularly if a GM has shown he's prudent with the owners' money in the lean times. It's not a magic account where money sits until it's used, but I do think there is some benefit to cutting as much as possible now that may show up later. And even if that isn't a guaranteed benefit, I don't see how that hurts unless it ultimately hurts the long-term plan. 2. I think you may be over-estimating Nunez in that first sentence. He's a serviceable DH who can stand at 1B or 3B if you need someone to stand there. The team obviously doesn't think he can handle defense at 3B otherwise I'm sure they'd pick him over Ruiz. Given he's--in their eyes 1B or DH--and you have Davis who they are insisting in holding for now, Mancini who by all reports will be ready by spring, and Mountcastle who may be penciled in to LF for now, but could easily get pushed out of the OF by more talented defenders, I'm not sure the playing time is there. With that said, I'm sure they've shopped him around some and would have kept him if they thought they could get anything of value for him, but I don't see the market for a Nunez type player. I agree that "giving up decent, cheap production for free is dumb", but only if that decent, cheap production holds any real value to other clubs. If not, it's reasonable to assume it can be replaced by decent, cheaper production...or even already team-controlled production.
  49. 1 point
    Elias is making decisions with a lot more information than you and I have on these matters. These are educated assumptions on his part, like how you expect Nunez to continue to be an .800-ish OPS, which is really below average for someone who has no defensive value. You are assuming the league has not, or will not have, figured him out. The way I see it, Nunez would have gotten about 500-600 plate appearances last season absent COVID. Elias, and many others here, believe that the team is better served with the outcome of those at bats split among other young players who have more value for the money they earn and will be a part of the next competitive team the Orioles field. Why waste those opportunities on a guy that will not be here at that time? Why coach a guy who has not shown any interest in playing defense since Bobby Dickerson left? It IS about roster flexibility. We can have an extra infielder, or an outfielder. Like you said, several players need to show they can stay healthy. Santander, Hays, Iglesias just to name a few. Having guys who can spell them to nurse a nagging injury before it becomes something more major would be nice, no? I find Mike Elias to be quite honest about the things he can be for a GM. The most dishonest things he has said is mostly the nice comments he makes about players he trades or releases. I mean he could point out how badly flawed they are, or how poor their work ethic is, or how they are not coachable, or how we simply have better players now that will make our team better. To say Elias is lying, and then point out that he telling the truth “to a point”...I’m speechless. He simply does not think Nunez is worth the money he would receive in arbitration. Just like the Rays did with Renfroe. Its business, of course it’s about money. That is why you need someone to make educated assumptions and spend what little resources you have wisely.
  50. 1 point
    I continue to insist that the organization would not make stupid moves over such an insignificant amount of money. It is not hyperbole so say that the savings are negligible, and if Nunez had value, he would have been retained. The team gave Iglesias ~3.5 million because-wait for it-he has value, being the best SS in the system and being essentially irreplaceable at the moment. Again, same song second verse, Nunez offers nothing we don’t already have, and his roster spot is best use for someone more versatile.
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