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Tony-OH

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Posts posted by Tony-OH


  1. 22 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

    Not to be glib, but what else is there besides being better at getting the ball and throwing it?

    Are you saying that McKenna might be faster than Mullins but isn't as good of a fielder?

    From what I've seen in the past, Mullins is a better defender because he gets betters jumps and takes better routes overall. McKenna suffers from losing focus in the field and on base paths, things you rarely if ever see from Mullins. McKenna will throw to the wrong base on occasion or just be lackadaisical out there at times. 

    Mullins is better hitter overall though McKenna does have some occasional pop that teases scouts sometimes. 
     


  2. 1 hour ago, scOtt said:

    You say that like you think we (possibly) have a better CFer in the lower levels. Who are you thinking of?

    I honestly through major league ready in there so I wouldn't have to think about the rest of the system. :D

    McKenna has a better arm and can go get the ball, but I'd probably take Mullins over McKenna in CF defensively overall.

    I'd like to see Adam Hall maybe get a look in center to see how he looks. He seems to have the tools to play there and would have a better arm than Mullins overall. But all is probably destined for 2B or super utility.


  3. 19 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

    A perfect world scenario for me is having Mullins coming in as a late inning CF defensive replacement, moving Hays to LF, then move Mountcastle to either 1B or 2B. I know he hasn't played any 2B in the majors, but he really can't be that much worse than Alberto or Valaika. Sure wouldn't hurt to give him some reps there next spring training.

    Oh yes he would be. He would be downright awful there because of his long arm action and lack of arm strength from that angle typically used by a 2B. If Mountcastle could play 2B or 3B effectively, do you not think the Orioles would be trying him there? Imagine his bat at those positions. Unless you want bottom of the barrel, game changingly bad defense at those potions, you keep him in LF or 1B preferable.


  4. 30 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

    All he’s gotta do is stay healthy . No injuries next year . He may not be able to sustain a high obp but neither did Adam Jones . I actually like him better in the corner outfield spot and I think that would be better for over the long haul health wise . I like the defensive alignment of Hayes in left , Mullins in center and Santander in right for now . If Mullins can keep hitting I’d like him in that lineup for now .

    Similar to Hunter Harvey, this is the main problem with counting on Hays. I really think he has the talent to be a solid every day major league player, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy over an entire season. He's yet to do that and wasn't even able to get through this mini 60 game season. 

    I can see a future outfield though with him back in center regularly. Mullins is better suited as a 4th outfielder than an every day starter, though Mullins is the best defensive center fielder this organization has right now that's major league ready. 

    • Upvote 2

  5. 2 hours ago, Frobby said:

     

    As to Bannon (also mentioned by SG and Philip), I am interested in him long term but he’s had very little AAA experience (20 games), struggled in the AFL last fall and wasn’t given a 60-man roster spot this year so I doubt the team is ready to roll the dice on him     It’s a shame the minor league season wasn’t played, because if it had he’d either be in the majors right now or at least we’d know more about whether we could pencil him in for 2021.

    It will be really interesting to see how Elias handles players after missing an entire year of games like they did. He has yet to show a willingness to aggressively promote players so I don't see Bannon up here until at least a half season of AAA time next year, but due to the missed season, who really knows how Elias will handle things.

    As for Alberto, I agree, he's fine as a stop gap 2B as long as he's cheap.


  6. 3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    I have no idea what he looks like defensively but offensively, his numbers seem to be fine...at least enough to give him a chance while waiting on a guy like Vavra.

    Alberto isn’t a guy I care if he’s here or not.

    Alberto is a decent stop gap option for now, but if Bannon got off to a hot start next year I would not be against seeing what he looks like at 2B or 3B. 3B is a bigger hole for me than 2B as Ruiz is a well below average MLB 3B both offensively and defensively.


  7. I'm not sure pitching 7.2 IP in 8 appearances in about 26 days time is going to convince anyone that they don't need to be worried about Harvey's health next year and beyond. Give me a full season of a regular relief work load with no DL stints or shutdowns and I'll believe it might behind him, but the only constant in Hunter Harvey's health since he was drafted was that he's not been healthy over a full season.

    We all see the talent, and we all are rooting for him to get it behind him, but he needs to prove it for much longer.

    • Upvote 1
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  8. 40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Why not just try Bannon?  

    Because he's not very good overall? 

    Honestly I'm not totally down on Bannon, I just don't think he's shown enough consistency at the plate or in the field at 2B to merit anyone counting on him to be part of the future here. But, we've seen players improve this year who have come back up so I haven't given up on him totally.

    He does have some tools to work from and at the end of the day, I'd probably like to see a full season at AAA before giving him consideration for the 2B job.


  9. 10 hours ago, Frobby said:

    I’m certainly not going to bet against Trey recovering all of his baseball skills, but it would be a great exaggeration to say I wasn’t worried about it.    There’s certainly an appreciable risk that he won’t.   And as I’ve said several times, my wish for his baseball skills to return is vastly secondary to my wish that he remain healthy and cancer free and live a full, happy like.    Baseball would be the cherry on the sundae.  

    This is where I'm at. My first wish is for Trey to live and love and happy life that is cancer free. Obviously second to this is his return to his previous form as a baseball player, but there is an inherent risk that won't happen.

    AS Moose pointed out, many athletes have returned to form and we can hope and pray that he does, but more importantly, that Trey will be well long term.

    • Upvote 3
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  10. 5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

    6 guys for 5 positions is NOT a problem.   Even 7 including Diaz isn't. 

    It might not even be a surplus.

    What are the chances all 6 or 7 will be healthy at the same time?   And if they are, what are the chances all 6 or 7 will be good enough to be regulars?

    With Hays and Mancini as two of the options? Not a good chance.


  11. I do think Mancini will be offered and will accept the same salary he was due to make this year before going to arbitration as long as the Orioles reasonably thinks Mancini will be play most of 2020. 

    the good news here is the Orioles are not going to be contenders in 2021, so they can afford to run Mancini out there if he's healthy enough and able to play at that major league level once again.

    As for at bats, that's where it gets tricky and I'm assuming Davis will not be on the team next year (retire/release/DL'd all year with pothole injuries). 

    The Orioles will need to find just about every day at bats for: 

    Mancini 1B/RF/DH
    Nunez DH/1B
    Mountcastle 1B/LF
    Stewart DH/RF/LF
    Hays CF/LF
    Santander RF/LF

    That's six guys for 5 positions/DH. Mullins is a 4th outfielder and will need some at bats as well.

    That's not including Yusniel Diaz who should be in consideration for everyday at bats at some point in 2021. If you add him in that's seven guys for five positions plus a 4th/5th outfielder in Mullins.

    One thing to remember here the defense improves if you go with a Diaz (LF), Hay (CF, Santander (RF) Lineup at some point, but that means Mountcastle/Mancini/Nunez has to share 1B unless you are willing to watch the disaster of nunez trying to play 3B again.

    The Orioles need to find a decent defensive 3Bman of the future though Jordan Westburg could be that guy, he's at least 2-3 years away most likely. 

    I'd try to move one of Stewart or Nunez for a 3B if possible, but few teams have extra 3Bman's laying around if they do, they aren't trading them for DH types like Nunez or Stewart unless they are significant upgrade to their DH position.

    I'd also float trading Pedro Severino if he has gained any value from this year's offensive output if he could bring back a 3B. 

    Either way, unless it's certain Mancini will not be back in 2021, I see the orioles agreeing to the same salary he woud make this year and hopefully he'll be back playing. If not, he'll be placed on the 60-day DL and the Orioles would be able to recoup some of his contract back with insurance if he can't play at the major league level again.

    Knowing how hard a worker and his heart, I wouldn't bet against Mancini coming back and being the player he was.

     


  12. 1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

    Syd was a great baseball mind at one time, but that was sadly before taking the job with the Orioles. I think his health was an issue, and nobody at the time, knew it or looked the other way and let him stumble his way through. 

     

    There is little doubt in my mind that Syd was in the beginning stages of dementia while the GM wit the Orioles. While he could be arrogant, he was a great baseball mind at one point. 


  13. 22 hours ago, weams said:

    We hardly knew ye. 

    Claimed back by the Pirates.

    This is weird.

    According Roch's article, Hyde said this about Fulmer.

    Asked about Fulmer on Sept. 8, manager Brandon Hyde said, “Carson threw yesterday and our pitching guys are ecstatic about the kind of stuff and what they saw from him in his bullpen session yesterday. It’s a top of the first round college guy that got to the big leagues really fast. I saw that early in Chicago. They used him in a variety of roles, never really got comfortable at the big league level. So it’s a big arm that we want to take a look at and hope we can find some opportunities to get him in and show what he can do.”

    I wonder what changed? Makes you wonder if there is a something going on here behind the scenes because there are at least four pitchers (Kline, Hess, Stewart, Lakins) on the current 40-man roster I would have DFA'd over Fulmer. I mean, the guy has an absolutely violent delivery but also seemed like a guy with a decent cutter an change and a fastball that plays up due to deception.

    He's a weird DFA unless there is something behind the scenes.

    • Upvote 3

  14. On 9/9/2020 at 8:24 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

    This is going waaaaay back, but I remember that there was some reason related to options or six-year eligibility or something that forced the O's to call up Cabrera.  It's not obvious from his playing record, he only spent 3.5 years in the minors, but I know there was something like that going on.  Maybe he signed much earlier but was in a complex or something?  I don't remember...

    That was the era where they called up Screech after a full month of seasoning Frederick and put him in the Orioles' starting lineup.  @Can_of_corn must be swooning just thinking about it.  My guess is that when Syd Thrift left he put some notes on Beattie's desk that included "don't forget about the Bonus Baby rule!  It'll bite you!"

    Still one of the most head-scratchingly dumb decision this organization has done over the last 20 years.


  15. 28 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

    Looks like it will be based on 2020 W-L records.  Next 6 games will make a difference in terms of having a Top 5/Top 10 pick.

    Yikes, I'm really surprised it wasn't a hybrid between 2019 and 2020. Seems a bit unfair that a 60 game schedule with 7-inning no headers and severely uneven schedules should decide the draft order completely. 

    I guess the only good news is this isn't official yet.

    The article states, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports that teams’ 2020 records are “highly likely” to be used to determine the order of selection.

    • Upvote 2

  16. 13 hours ago, now said:

    Talk about "lack of imagination..." -- I'm talking about the ZiPS figures, not Szymborski or the Orioles. Hardly seems worth running the projections over five years if there's so little variation from year to year for each of those players. Maybe I'm just spoiled by wildly fluctuating careers in baseball sim games... or reality itself.

    This.. Anyone talking anything from those ZIP projections are setting themselves up for a lot of grief for no reason. It's ridiculous to think players stay so even over a 4 year stretch. 

    I've never been a ZIPs guy so I'll admit that upfront, and I also take a lot more out of the statcast info then I do the Fangraph projections.

    His evaluations are pretty solid overall on the players though there is absolutely no way Mountcastle should ever see 3B again on any kind of regular basis. His arm action and lack of overall arm strength would make him a game changingly (new word lol) bad 3B at the major league level. He's fine at 1B but I'd like to see him get everyday work in LF to see if he can improve on his poor stat cast numbers that suggest he's a well below average defender when it comes to range.

    I think Santander's OBP is low on the ZIp projections. It improved this year and at 25-years old, I expect that number to continue to rise. 

     

     

     


  17. After watching Valaika this year and then looking at his statcast numbers,  I think  it's fair to say we have a solid read on him by now. Valaika has a little pop in the bat and is versatile guy in that he can play a lot of positions, but he doesn't play any them well.

    He got pretty regular at bats this year and his WOBA was .306 (.317 MLB AVG) so it was slightly below average. His hard hit% is about major league average 34% vs 34.8 MLB avg. 

    So the bat to me is slightly below average overall at best, but the problem comes is that he's below average at every position you play him at due to his 45 infield arm and below average first step quickness (my observations). 

    The thing is, he's not awful any where so you can kinda get away with him as a utility player because although he's below average, he's not "will kill you awful" anywhere. 

    At the end of the day, I could see Valaika as a starter on lower Division team that will ultimately give you below average numbers across the board, but he's more suited as a bat first utility guy.

    Do I think he can be serviceable utility guy in the major leagues? Sure, if you are looking more bat heavy than fielding heavy. 

    Is he any part of the future as a regular, no, I don't think he brings enough of anything to be a first Division starter. 

     

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  18. On 9/19/2020 at 9:41 AM, Frobby said:

    No, they both had to be added to the 60-man squads of their original teams and then put on the 60-man squad of the Orioles.    I suppose that since the season is nearly over, it’s easier now to add someone to the 60-man squad and not be concerned that you’d actually need that spot for someone who might be called to the majors.    So, that explains why it’s easier to do this now instead of when the trades were made originally.    But I don’t really see any advantage to doing it now as opposed to waiting for the offseason.   

    Makes sense to me.


  19.  

    1 hour ago, Frobby said:

    I wonder why these trades were completed now, instead of waiting another 11 days until the offseason.    Nothing wrong with it I guess, but I’m just wondering if there’s some advantage to completing the trade now.   

    The timing does seem weird. I'm assuming DSL players don;t count against the rule of being able to be moved during the season if not on the 60-man?? Not sure.

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