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Hallas

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About Hallas

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    Somewhere in the LA area
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    software engineer

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  1. More like some good advice that you just didn't take.
  2. I'm not going to address unknowns due to the season getting cancelled, although that is a serious possibility, because accounting for that pushes you toward nihilistic decisions that I don't think are optimal if you're trying to build a sustainably winning organization. However, any concerns about his trade value at the deadline are almost 100% mitigated by the fact that his pro-rata salary is only $4 million. During a normal year he easily snags a 45 FV prospect if he performs. If it's a normal year then you 100% make out like a bandit. But even if it's not a normal year, you'd have to trade him for a complete non-prospect for it not to be worth it. A 40+ FV prospect who ends up being a utility man will easily cover the $4 million price tag. Ryan Friggin Flaherty was worth 13 million for us, while getting paid only 5.9 million in salary. It shouldn't be terribly difficult to find a low prospect that ends up being Ryan Flaherty.
  3. Variations in value on players almost don't matter if they're talented enough, because salaries are pro-rated. The short season makes wacky things like us signing Puig for a $4 million (after the pro rata adjustment) deal plausible. That wouldn't be worth it at all if we had to pay for a full season. But because of the built-in discount due to the 60 game season, a player would have to be massively overvalued for him to not make sense. edit to add: I think that most years we can assume that we'd get back at least a 45 FV prospect for a player like Puig, but this is not most years. We don't really know if the teams will take this season seriously and offer the same level prospects for him as they would other years. So there are definitely some unknowns and risk. But to me it seems like a relatively low-risk, high-reward strategy to sign as many talented players looking for 1 year deals as you can, securing a massive discount because of the shortened season, and then trade them for prospects
  4. A 45 FV prospect is valued at around 10-15 million according to fangraphs. They don't have one listed for 40 FV but it's something around 3-4 million with high variance IIRC. A utility player will easily be worth 4 million during his cost controlled years.
  5. I assume that they curve the grades based on draft position, though I could be mistaken. For what it's worth, Eric Longenhagen over at Fangraphs also likes our draft; he's a big fan of taking Kjerstad for a slot discount, then drafting a pair of overslots in rounds 4 and 5. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/draft-odds-ends-2/
  6. Of course. I agree that Lamar wouldn't have done nearly as well without his Ravens supporting cast. But keep in mind that other teams had good offensive lines, but didn't have QBs produce as well as Lamar. The Eagles and Colts, for example (1, 3 rated by PFF.) Secondly, even if you believe Darnold is actually a good QB with a terrible cast (a take I find absurd, but we'll roll with it anyway) the fact that the Jets can't surround him with an OL capable of protecting him bodes very negatively for his ability to remain durable for the next 10 years. Orlovsky's take is absolutely ridiculous on multiple fronts. I'm willing to go a step further and say that the Ravens organization, team-building philosophy, and coaching deserve a substantial (maybe as much as 50%) credit for turning Lamar into Lamar, and that he doesn't get all the credit. But that's exactly why you bet on the better organization to produce a better QB, even if Darnold has more raw talent.
  7. Maybe they'll turn the entire season into a participation prize and declare all conference champions co-national champions 😅😃😆
  8. As if the cancellation of classes isnt...
  9. It is official. Super duper bummer.
  10. Okay. Our side of the bracket is Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. So the Terps get a chance to prove you wrong at least. By the way, Wisconsin is only a 1 seed because of a last second win over Minnesota at home, and a miracle win over us at home. So that argument cuts pretty much for every team.
  11. I mean, if you're not happy after we played well for a full 40 minutes vs a top-25 team and beat them by double digits then I really don't know what to tell you.
  12. What is that chop thing that the Rutgers crowd does? Is it supposed to be a knight sword swing?
  13. Ayala hit a 3 finally. We get it down to 6 at the half.
  14. Fair enough. It'll probably be enough for me to think that he won't OPS .550 again. But my bar's pretty high given that it's spring stats, he's been so bad for so long, and, as you said, the only thing that correlates even a little bit is SLG.
  15. Honestly if he slugs .600 in the spring I still won't be all that impressed. If he slugs .800 in the spring I'll feel a bit of hope.
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