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Hallas

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About Hallas

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    Somewhere in the LA area
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    software engineer

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  1. Not trying to poo-poo Trey Mancini, but coming back to play while still undergoing chemotherapy and then hitting a walk-off in the playoffs was just the stuff of legends.
  2. I don't blame Jones for not swinging at that pitch one bit. The hell is the ump looking at there? Pitch was 6 inches inside.
  3. Here come the posters that complain about posters that have nothing better to do than to complain about other posters...yadda yadda yadda.
  4. I mean, prospect rankings I'm a bit confused, are we talking top prospects or top draft picks? Because it's a big mistake to conflate them. In the last 10-15 years the very vast majority of players on top prospect lists, especially the top 5 for position players, have gone on to have very productive MLB careers worthy of their place on the top prospects list.
  5. I really think the hypothetical sale of the team is super out of scope for a discussion on prospect/farm system rankings. I do think that prospect rankings (especially when we're comparing prospects to other teams) do have a pretty strong correlation with future performance. These aren't draft picks, and I think teams/evaluators have gotten pretty good at identifying prospects that they think are going to be impact players once they start playing pro ball. I agree that the minor league performance has to translate to major league performance, and soon, but at least there's hope that we have
  6. I bet your brain exploded when you learned that Fangraphs has us at number 1. For what it's worth, a top heavy farm system is much more valuable than a moderately balanced one. You can only field so many players, and the true top prospects like Adley and Grayson are the ones most likely to give your team big production. Yeah there might be a diamond in the rough somewhere that might surprise you, but by and large the bottom end of the prospect list is filled with role players that might produce 1/10 of what someone like Adley will (hopefully) produce.
  7. Mike has to be on a clock right now. We're 4 years in and there's been zero improvement to the major league team. We have a huge prospect pipeline, which is good, but if Mike expects to keep his job that prospect pipeline has to deliver. One of the downsides of doing a full teardown/rebuild is that you get exactly 1 chance to execute it, and any number of things outside your control can derail it. I hope for the Orioles sake that the prospects are able to deliver.
  8. FYI Howard's contract was technically 135M because the Phillies paid an extra 10 million buyout to get out of the 2017 option. Good stuff though. I think Davis is worse now because he's produced more negative WAR. But I'd argue that his negative performance after that point almost shouldn't be counted against him, because he wouldn't have played if the Orioles were any good.
  9. Ryan Howard produced negative WAR during his last contract (5/125 + 10 million buyout,) and arguably was worse, because he didn't produce a single season over 1 WAR for the duration of the contract. Davis was at least serviceable for the first year of his contract (3 WAR from BB-ref.)
  10. No they can't. Not to nearly the same degree that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers can. Considering the Red Sox and Yankees are like 1/4 of our schedule that seems like a major competitive disadvantage. Can the Orioles eat a 200 million dollar contract and still be competitive? If the answer is no, (and the fact that Chris Davis has been such a boondoggle proves that) then we can't really overcome mistakes. And with the unofficial salary cap in place (MLB won't approve contracts that exceed a team's revenue) there's no way for a multibillionaire owner to come in and let the Or
  11. BB% stabilizes to an r^2 of 50% at like 120 plate appearances, so that 9.3% in the last 42% is quite meaningful. BB% is more a function of how dangerous your bat is, and the fact that he hit a lot of home runs recently is probably the cause. No one would mistake Vlad Guerrero's plate discipline for Joey Votto yet he consistently walked well over 10% of his plate appearances.
  12. With the size of the strike zone the ump was giving that seems like a miracle. At least 4 pitches in these ABs that were clear strikes.
  13. Look at that immaculate strike zone. You might have to click thru to see it.
  14. I think this is a reasonably likely explanation, and I also think that it's a possibility that you should plan for. Maybe instead of drafting 8 college seniors in the back end of the draft, they could have drafted 7 and 1 extra lottery ticket that they might be able to sign if some of their picks sign for less than expected.
  15. I honestly didn't realize Gray Rod was so heavily panned. I had to go back and read the draft thread. I really liked the pick. Thinking back, I thought the comparison to Hobgood wasn't all that great. I don't like to go by physical appearences, but GrayRod clearly had a better handle on how to build his body appropriately for baseball and he carried his weight much, much better. Also, Hobgood was a good 20-30 lbs heavier while being shorter.
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