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hoosiers

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hoosiers last won the day on June 15 2020

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About hoosiers

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  • Birthday 8/18/1968

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  • Location
    New Jersey
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  • Interests
    Sports, Os, IU athletics
  • Occupation
    Senior Vice President of Finance
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Matt Wieters

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  1. It is amazing how much information is provided to/for you, almost exclusively, in this thread and how you interpret that data. Folks have explained the international processes in general, the complications, found insightful articles, and some "investment" results and somehow you want to be the teenager that doesn't do any chores or homework and yet points to the shiny Dre Beats headphones and yells - I want that one.
  2. Not sure if you are aware, but the Orioles had a negligible international presence when Mike Elias was hired and had not signed a top 30 international prospect in some time - only two or three guys that we signed in the last 20 years might have made a top 50 list. Mike Elias had to build out an international scouting network basically from scratch. Also, most of the top international prospects at the age of 14 reach verbal agreements with clubs to be formally signed at 16. Mike Elias was hired in Nov 2018. Koby Perez in Jan 2020. The fact that these two put together an international scouting network and were able to sign two top 40 prospects in the J2 class that was supposed to be signed last July 2021 is absolutely remarkable - less than 20 months from when Perez was hired. Can and should the Os do better than guys in the top 30-35 range going forward? I hope so. Is it appropriate to criticize the current J2 class that was supposed to sign in July 2020? Only if one is unfamiliar with how the international market operates.
  3. In the past (say 10 years ago), the best values were the lower paid guys (I'm going to say $10k-$250k) and the $M bonus babies did not work out as well. There were also value opportunities in kids not signed at 16 who grew and had value as 17 and 18 year olds. I wonder if scouting has improved in the last decade or if some have a secret sauce that nets better players, but I do not know if one organization has consistently outproduced others. It would be interesting to see an analysis updating the return in terms of prospect status and big league production versus signing bonuses since 2010. If I am forced to choose, I would prefer the strength in numbers of the lower $ guys (and would take as many of them as I can - thought I believe there can be nice value found even in the $250k-$750k range. However, I would most prefer the path that we appear to be going down - participating in grabbing our share of the $1+M guys AND signing lower $ contract guys.
  4. Hard to believe OP leaves out the J&J vaccine that should be approved in about a month. J&J has been producing its vaccine out of two mid-west plants since July and has said it will distribute 1B vaccines in 2021. Given the elderly and those in nursing homes are getting the vaccine early, there should be a rapid decline in the death rate starting in Feb. There are other factors like improved therapeutics and increased testing that should have the US moving rapidly to the other side of this virus in March/April. I think MLB could delay ST and OD around 4-6 weeks.
  5. It is not easy. I have posted many times since the Bedard trade that folks here loved the trade, but wouldn't do it again. What Tampa has created is multi-faceted (as I posted above): - depth - makes it easier to make a trade when there is a quality player waiting to be next man up. - reputation for trading - you like someone on Tampa, well, call them up. Tampa will deal with you, but be prepared to overpay. - a very strong analytics and scout team that can spot under-valued players who can be corrected to be better in other organizations. - an understanding that 80% of their better players can't be afforded and must be traded near peak value - usually after year 2 and before year 5 of a player's pre-FA status. Tampa has also arrived at this point by establishing quality major leaguers with upside at the major league minimum up and down their lineup and rotation. Wait until our young guys come up, we increase wins from 66 in 2021 to 74 in 2022 and 86 in 2023 (including a near playoff team) and then deciding that the best way forward is to deal all-star catcher Adley Rutschmann for a massive haul of prospects! "Simple process" you say! Convince your owner and fan base that dealing AR makes you a better organization LT!
  6. I know right! Perhaps not a surprise we would be in the top third given our draft budget, but still the "I get paid to do my job" crowd may find it surprising that every organization in baseball is trying to accomplish the same thing and the situation ME inherited - with perhaps below average player development, international operations, analytics, equipment, etc - across the board throughout the entire organization plus approx $35-$40M of low production payroll on the major league roster into years 3 of the rebuild (and another $23M in year 4). The early returns of ME's body of work are, IMO, quite impressive in terms of industry recognition of draft efforts, implementation of new technology, improvement in player results such as the minor league pitchers strikeout improvement/rates, signings and trades of Milone and Iggy, projected multiple top 40 signings in this (2020) international class. I get that the average tenure of a major league GM is about 3.5 years and then they are fired, and that the post-mortem analysis of ME's actions won't be definitive for a few years. In other words, it is easy to constantly criticize your GMs actions because a large majority don't work out. It is only my opinion, but to classify ME's work to date with the Os as a, well, ME (meets expectations) or simply "he's paid to do his job" reflects a level of ignorance that doesn't come around these parts often. Not sure anyone here is going to give ME the best gm in baseball title on this thread, but it seems rather obvious that ME should receive above average to well-above average grades across a large majority of the different aspects of our organization that he is responsible for.
  7. Bedard was absolutely dominating AA when he got hurt. He was about to vault into BA Top 25 or so status at mid-season. MB has put up strong numbers, but has not received near the prospect recognition Bedard was approaching. Eager for MB to get his chance and hope he can become a solid SP3.
  8. I don't know what there is to "refute", You and I may have different definitions of luck. Trading a prospect near peak value may not be as lucky as you think, but a smart course of action. There have been numerous examples of players traded before seeing value drop and players traded who see their values rights - both happened in the Chris Archer deal that included Glasnow. You have to trust your scouts and your development guys and your GM. Certainly, the Astros had top draft picks that were destined not to pan out. Whether the rest is luck or not is subjective IMO and not definitive.
  9. Maybe the Padres are the right team, but the OP asks for the wrong shortstop - not Cronenworth, but former elite prospect (somewhat similar to the Felix Pie trade) Jorge Mateo. Mateo still has some prospect upside, should be at least a decent defensive shortstop but struggled with major league pitching in a sss in 2020. Perhaps Mateo is ideal and cheap for the bench role the Padres have in store for him, but maybe he could produce a nice return if given a full time major league shortstop opportunity.
  10. Separately, kudos to our front office for this recognition. It is entirely possible that this rating is a high water mark considering who we graduate, but if we continue to draft well and have B prospects step forward and keep taking our appropriate share or more of international talent, it is also possible for us to retain or improve our ranking entering 2022.
  11. I think we will graduate Mountcastle and AR among our top 100 crop. It is entirely conceivable that our #5 overall pick in 2021 could make a top 100 list and that GHenderson improves to the point of being a top 100 player. Remember, our 2020 draft consisted of passing on a reputed top talent for Kjerstad and a bundle of other talent. Hoping/expecting that the other talent develops into quality prospects is the plan. So hopefully, that comes to fruition. Also, remember that the 2020 draft was somewhat of a crapshoot considering the lack of reduced scouting exposure - one has to hope that our front office excelled in that draft - a hope all fans have for their teams, but there will be winners and losers from that draft in that some teams will look at the first rounders and realize they really have a third round talent on their hands and some will end up with strong, strong drafts. We do have tradeable talent in Santander, Mancini and others - perhaps Means. Last year, our front office turned Milone, Iggy and Bleier into prospects. There is every reason to hope this can be repeated in 2021. The Rays have set themselves up in an unbelievable - almost unprecedented position. Consistent top farm team, consistent contender. They will trade anyone, but one has to pay a premium and other teams consistently pay it. I am not sure if our front office intends to operate this way or whether we would keep higher end talent. When I proposed dealing Wieters, Davis and others around 2012-2014, it was widely ridiculed, but that is how the better run franchises operate, but they operate in that fashion because they HAVE TO, the Orioles would have to mimic that behavior and re-cycle top players for a larger pool of younger, prospect talent as a matter of choice - and very few teams have been able to do that. Most teams have a "window" to compete and act accordingly.
  12. Cronenworth was a house on fire for a chunk of last season. I am not sure of the defensive profile - though it seems he may carve out a role as a 300-400 AB super-utility guy on that team. It is a crazy amount of talent amassed in San Diego after what seemed like a failed run just a few years ago. It is an interesting question whether to trade one of Diaz/Hays for him - I think both Os prospects are more likely to be regulars. Hays has a stronger minor league resume, but jury is still out on his ability to hit major league pitching.
  13. Prospects fail all the time. The important thing is to have as many picks (and as many higher picks or higher budgets) as possible. Think of the 2012-16 run made by the Orioles and the large number of pitching prospects we had that did not pan out appropriately - starting with high picks Matusz and Bundy (maybe not failures, but not really successful picks). Sure, the run was fueled by low cost, young players drafted and acquired via trade - Jones, Wieters, Machado, Tillman, Britton, Davis, etc. One can always point to failed draft picks across many teams and high up in the draft. Strength in numbers is critical - imo - since one never knows which players will pan out and which won't - (which separately is part of my criticism for the Yaz trade).
  14. What I see from afar is a team that has played pretty hard for Hyde since Day 1. I have to imagine that Hyde and Elias are very much on the same page regarding how to handle the team, play the right players in the right situations and player development. If 2021 is the last guaranteed year, I would expect Hyde's option to be picked up or a new contract executed to involve additional years.
  15. I appreciate the opinions of RR and Frobby regarding Yastrzemski. Not sure how dealing him represents anything other than a massive internal error in player evaluation and/or development. Yas was good almost immediately after being dealt. MY needed less than 175 minor league plate appearances after leaving the Orioles before producing 5.5 WAR in under 600 ABs at the major league level and top 10 NL MVP status. Call it hindsight or MMQB, but I can only look at a rebuilding team dealing away a prospect with that production and call it a massive fail.
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