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hoosiers

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hoosiers last won the day on August 26

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About hoosiers

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  • Birthday 8/18/1968

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    New Jersey
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    Sports, Os, IU athletics
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    Senior Vice President of Finance
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Matt Wieters

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  1. I think this analysis shows the most obvious way to meaningfully reduce payroll is to trade Villar.
  2. I have been quite critical of DD in the past, but I think he did well for the Os at the 2018 deadline. We shall see which prospects pan out, but those trades were made for a variety of reasons and most guys dealt were rentals. Rentals did not yield many top prospects. Further, the Gausman trade was about a salary dump in order to insure cost stability heading into 2018 and that mission was accomplished. I think we are clear winners in the Schoop trade. Villar was a strong performer this year and enhanced his player value. Plus a couple of fringe prospects. I think getting a BA Top 100 guy plus multiple other prospects for Manny was a good trade. Conceptually, I think dealing Britton to the NYY was an indication that the NYY would have to be the top bidder and perhaps comfortably so in order to help NYY. Folks looking to how these prospects might pan out to help us in our next competitive run might be disappointed, but these deals were made for various reasons and with various teams that I am very comfortable with the end results.
  3. As said in recent articles, there are no shortcuts. This winter is Elias' first real opportunity to make hires across the organization for minor league positions, analytics and scouting. Filling these positions is a major priority IMO. Another major priority is to make strides to sign the bigger $ international free agents in a few years. Not sure if that will be 2021, 2022 or 2023, but that day needs to arrive and when it arrives we need to remain competitive at the top of the market. In this genre and similar to the first priority listed, we need to fill out all international scouting positions. This is more of a year-round priority, but obviously more management time can be focused here in the offseason. It would be nice to come up with the same finds this offseason as last with regards to guys like Ruiz, Nunez, Alberto. There is only so much progress that can be made stealing away the guys not on another organization's 40 man, but we are a 54 win team with opportunities to offer talent that may be blocked elsewhere. I look forward to the day when our 40 man is full and we don't participate in the Rule V draft, but we are not there now. Hopefully, we acquire someone with some real potential. IMO, the best way to create quick value is to sign a reclamation project free agent bullpen arm or two. We could use the shoring up of our major league bullpen and such signings could have real value at the trade deadline. Trades - as much as I appreciate the production and attitude of veterans like Mancini and Villar this year, I would like to see them dealt for quality minor league pieces. I would hold off on Bundy because I think some of his improvement has been real and want to see how he does to start 2020. He seemed to be throwing strikes and avoiding the middle of the plate though some of the starts were against weaker teams. Luck - if we had another unheralded prospect turn in a John Means style improvement this offseason and become a real part of our future, that would be incredible.
  4. You realize the recent adverse MASN rulings indicate that the MASN was not only shorting the Nats, but also the Orioles by tens of millions of dollars. That was $ going straight into the pockets of MASN owners which is basically the same makeup as Os owners. We've had discussions that Os owners were making profits between $50M and $75M around 2012-2014 between the Os and MASN. The Nats received the higher end of the DC/Balt market, but MASN owners were guaranteed in the neighborhood of $200M when the deal was originally signed. You can look at all that $ and wonder about the ownership decisions to avoid spending internationally, to avoid investing in an analytics department, to avoid investing in modern baseball technologies. and much more. Issues surrounding the Orioles various problems over the past 10 years including our current state of (lack of) competitiveness have very little to do with the Nats.
  5. Luke makes an incredibly valid and important point when judging this catch against what statcast says. Hays may or may not have shown elite reaction time, speed and/or route running on this play, but the catch itself appears to have been made 1-2 feet above the wall and 1-2 feet behind the wall. Even if a well-above average defensive CF gets to the wall sooner, that CF might not be tall enough to meet the ball at the right point in its downward trajectory as Hays did - or the CF might (or might not) be able to make that catch holding himself up at the top of the wall.
  6. Mauer had an 8 year period where he averaged over 5.0 WAR including two seasons where he played in only 82 and 109 games. A career .388 obp mostly as a C. The all-star thing has less relevance to me given how many times Minnesota gets to send multiple players. He was the best catcher in the game for a decade IMO. Definite HOFer.
  7. Lol - I watched the Ironbirds play three games at Staten Island with Diaz playing. Diaz gave my son his broken bat with Diaz's name on it. My son picked up multiple autographs from Diaz and I actually spoke to him for a minute or two. I am curious as to your frame of reference that Diaz did not play with Aberdeen this year ….. Don't you think you could spend 20 seconds at milb.com before trying to discredit or (erroneously) correct someone else's post?
  8. Diaz has been hurt a good portion of this year. Even in what was supposed to be his last game at Aberdeen, he was HBP and he looked a bit uncomfortable/hurt by it. The guy has been very injury prone and I would say that it caused him to not go 100% at Aberdeen. During one play, Diaz could have slid and possibly broken up a double-play and perhaps even been safe at second if the defender shied away from contact on a low throw. Instead, Diaz pulled up and veered away from 2B avoiding all potential for contact. The injuries have allowed our front office to slow roll promotions for Diaz and it looks likely that he will start next year in the minors perhaps with Mr. Mountcastle at AAA. Our front office's decisions to slow roll these promotions are an early indicator to me that we are tanking next year as well - it will be another throwaway year IMO. And perhaps in a throwaway year we carry Davis on the roster for a bit longer. Sure, by early June we should have glimpses of Mr. Mountcastle, perhaps Diaz and a bunch of this season's AA pitchers. I find this disappointing in that our guys may not get enough seasoning to be counted on for 2021. Anyway, Hays' development at the major league level is certainly a reason to look forward to next season. He is looking pretty good in CF so far where his offense will definitely play.
  9. Do people understand how bass ackwards our front office has been for 20 years? PA cronies and old timers keeping their jobs long past any good they have done. Do people understand how our front office compared to others in the division and in baseball? How poor our analytics group has been compared others in the division and in baseball? I have said several times that folks are getting a front row seat to observing a handful of baseball executives turn our front office from among the very worst in baseball to something that will likely be a top 10 front office? In the process, they are transforming the organization from how we draft, to how we play and develop, to how we prepare. Enjoy it. Learn from it. It is not going to happen "trying to keep old Os involved as much as possible".
  10. One of my favorite personal stories involves being asked to take a Communications class prior to being promoted to a VP-level position at my company. A Communications class is basically a listening (and understanding and communicating). Well, at the end of the three day class, there was a case study that involves being presented an urgent situation as a group and deciding to rank the importance of materials and tasks first as individuals and then as a group. The idea is that if the group communicates and shares that the group's ranking of the materials and tasks is better than the best individual score - that different folks will have some knowledge of what is important and, by sharing information, the group will do better. Our situation involved an Australian forest fire and we were faced with the decision to stay at a rental house and fight the fire or to get in a car and leave. The class was split into two groups and the other group had a guy who knew all the answers. He worked for an oil company and had been training in fire safety and oil platform fire safety. He said the group was supposed to stay and fight the fire and he explained the importance of each of the materials. The teacher was listening to this and saw that group take its discussion in another direction. So the teacher intervened and asked the oil company guy to repeat what he had said. "I have been trained in fire safety, it is necessary for my job, and we are supposed to stay and fight the fire and use these materials." When that guy finished talking, another person in that group stood up and said, "I'm leaving the house (fleeing the fire), who is with me?" Another person in that group stood up and said "I am" to which his teammate replied "You get the beer, I'll get the keys and we will meet at the car!". These guys had just spent three days in a class specifically designed to teach listening and communication skills and these guys had failed in spectacular fashion. You have to be an idiot to not know that baseball is being taught differently these days at its highest levels. Just my watching the Ironbirds warm up and by talking to one pitcher for 20 minutes, I could tell there were knew training tools being used, new reports being provided on their results and clear direction on what to improve. Any instructor who merely taught the same thing this year under this regime that they did taught last year under the prior regime would be a candidate to lose their job. If you are not learning about the new tools and reports and asking questions on why these new items are being used and to what benefit, you would be a candidate to lose your job. I expect there was MASSIVE opportunity to learn from and impress the new regime this past year and I doubt Surhoff did either.
  11. I thought last year that the players at Aberdeen really enjoyed having Hays there on re-hab. I noticed him communicating several things to younger teammates such as after his at-bats. This year, Andrew Daschbach's father said the team really liked having Hays on the team for that re-hab. The father said Hays had provided some advice to Toby Welk while at Aberdeen. I think Hays is going to be an excellent teammate and, in time, mentor for the organization for many years as I expect the production to be solid to strong as well.
  12. Davis isn't a bench player. He is a guy producing worse than -1 WAR the past two seasons.
  13. The BoSox cut Pedro Sandoval with 2.5 years and near $50M owed to the Panda. At this point, I believe Davis is owed under $70M. I think it would be a mistake to lose out taking a Rule V prospect - one who this year was our major league starting shortstop - or causing us to lose a guy like Fenter to the Rule V draft. Whether we have to pay out Davis when cutting him or whether we can pay him according to his contract terms even after releasing him, the interest cost that represents the difference in those two scenarios would like be in the $3+M range. IMO, given the past three seasons, there is only a very small chance that Davis approaches even .5 - 1 WAR in production and he would likely continue as a negative WAR guy next year. I am glad to see the Os are treating Davis well despite the poor production and that Davis is enjoying being with his teammates in the capacity the organization has spoken to him about - part player, part coach. But this capacity shouldn't last into next season, it shouldn't cause us to lose a prospect or lose out on a prospect (Rule V).
  14. Hays needs major league at-bats. His injuries have only interrupted his development and slowed down his path to the majors - they have not IMO impacted him physically to downgrade his potential impact from where it was two years ago. Hays has dominated AA, dominated Spring Training, has a large number of at-bats at AA and above, and should be (and as I advocated - should have been) in the major leagues. I think our front office has shown with the very slow advancement of our better prospects - Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz, Stewart and pretty much all SPs at AA and above - that the name of this game is delaying service time and, as a result, most guys will get their opportunities starting next year. I would have preferred to have this happen more this season, but that's not how the AP version of Delaying Service Time is handled.
  15. I have thought for a while that the plan was to get by this year with Davis on the roster and that next year at some point Davis will be at risk of being released - attempting to absorb Davis' salary among the team's payroll and regular cash flows for as long as possible. I don't think it will be possible much longer. In the next year or two, Davis' roster spot will cause the Os to lose or lose out on a prospect of some value. Writing a check next year for the balance of what is owed to Davis will be much more palatable with next year's portion counting against the next year's payroll and then possibly financing the early payment of another $45+M or so. I think there is a 50%-75% that Davis is released before the next Rule V draft.
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