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hoosiers

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hoosiers last won the day on June 15

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About hoosiers

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  • Birthday 8/18/1968

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    New Jersey
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  • Interests
    Sports, Os, IU athletics
  • Occupation
    Senior Vice President of Finance
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Matt Wieters

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  1. I expect there were several dozen options of how the draft would play out for the Os. It is somewhat amusing for folks to think it is important that all of them, or at least the one that actually played out, involved spending every $. Let's also wait and see what Servideo signs for. I thought there was an early report that he would be an overslot signing.
  2. Many of those who argued the Orioles should have released Chris Davis last year because it was a sunk cost and the Os would be responsible for paying out the entire contract were .... wrong. About $10M wrong!
  3. RT, you are all over the place in your opinion here. Didn't you post a bit back that Martin would likely "be a team player" and lower his bonus demands? Which is it - guys like Martin are team players or they want full slot and more? Whichever number the team and player agree to is what it is. And agents ask for slot and more and teams offer slot and less. Sometimes, there may be a vast difference between what a player requests and what a team is willing to pay based on how it rates a prospect - and a team might take advantage of that. Sometimes, the difference in talent between player A and player B is not enough to justify the difference in bonus requests. You seem to be making inferences on where these players are ranked based on their signing bonuses.
  4. Why wouldn't they have that conversation? Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot? It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent. Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years! That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.
  5. I think you are more "dug" onto your position than most here - and it's really not very close. After all, most here wanted Martin because of the industry consensus of his talents, but it appears most of THOSE people have been able to comprehend our draft strategy AND adjust their viewpoints. It is you who is digging in your heels as if it doesn't even matter how Kjerstad turns out. And it is somewhat offensive for you to think opinions like mine are based on an "Elias love fest". It appears to defy any logic that you might consider that Kjerstad could be roughly an equivalent or better prospect to Martin - despite the upheaval that resulted in losing a good portion of the college season - despite Kjerstand out-hitting Martin for the collegiate national team. Most high schoolers never took the field for their season - the entire HS crop could be classified as almost a pot luck. There will be first rounders who may almost immediately be flops and fourth rounders who almost immediately will be considered first round talents. It is highly likely the draft would have played out much, much different if the high school and college seasons were played out. RT, you use phrases like most first rounders don't pan out as if this applies only to Kjerstad and not to Martin. And you have posted that you would likely have met Boras' asking price for Martin with no concern voiced so far at the inequity of Boras requesting/receiving a different signing bonus from the Os than from the Jays. There is high upside in this draft for Orioles because of the number of $1.5M talents we are leaving this draft with. Being able to do that starts with getting a quality talent to sign for less than slot at 1:2. Our front office has bucked industry consensus in saying that Kjerstad is a talent under-appreciated by the industry. Those of us with open minds are eager to see how it plays out.
  6. It is difficult to post with someone who has already said they can't be convinced of changing their opinion. I certainly understand those who had a large preference for the Os to simply select Martin and move on down the line. I was comfortable with that line of thinking and posted such before the draft, but I have little issue with our GM going in the direction he did. A couple things to note: - it appears highly likely that Martin will receive less $ from the Jays than he/Boras requested from the Os. This isn't right and IMO is an indication that Boras failed to get his client the most $ possible. - Kjerstad outhit both Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team. - Elias has said that he thought Kjerstad was on his way to a monster season given the improved BB and K ratios. Elias said the Os did research on whether college juniors with improved BB and K ratios in the first portion of the season were likely to carry that improvement through the balance of the season - the answer to that research would appear to be that such improvement is sustained throughout the year. - teams viewed the shortened college season in different ways. It appears that the Os projected out the remainder of the unplayed 2020 college season and used that 2020 projection as a key factor in how players were ranked.
  7. I disagree with your logic. Our GM did something similar at Houston and, by your logic, Carlos Correa would have been rated much farther below those who "might" have gone ahead of him. Yet Correa was a highly regarded prospect immediately. I think if the Os had Martin rated comfortably better than Kjerstad that we would have drafted Martin. My guess is the Os had Kjerstad rated neglibibly below to higher than Martin; and we decided to go with Kjerstad and have significant $ for the rest of the draft. As I have posted, it would not have surprised me if we had called Boras and asked if Martin would sign for around $7M (to free up $750k to spend later) and Boras likely responded that he wanted $8M for Martin. Anyway, I really don't care about the current rankings too much. If Kjerstad produces in the minors for the next two seasons, he will be a top 50 or better prospect soon enough. If there is a day when Kjerstad passes Martin in the rankings and BA would do that as soon as it is obvious, we can brag about it then. There is no reason for BA to do all of its research into the draft and then abandon the rankings so soon without any play. If anything, the spot at 99 suggests that BA has given a nod to the Kjerstad and the Os. It seems very possible that Kjerstad would not have been ranked if he had been drafted 10th to 12th.
  8. I really don't understand what is so hard about testing these guys and then letting them into whatever development situation is cooked up. Let them stay at a hotel and get to work the next day. Many college sports teams have returned to school. Some guys will test positive and need to be on the sidelines until they recover.
  9. Some of us advocated for dealing those guys at the time and not offering the last bad contract. We see how the As and Rays deal players a year too early rather than a year too late. Really, the only player the Os dealt "early" was Bedard and those results were spectacular, but folks didn't/don't seem to want to "rinse/repeat" those results with other players. If one suggested dealing Wieters and others in 2013-2015, it was met with incredulity here. Bmore fans here want to win, but they want more to win with their guys.
  10. I think the games get played. Most players who test positive could well be back in the lineup within two weeks. A very large majority of folks who test positive have a mild experience. It would be like an injury - next man up.
  11. One other note about the hitters - a large majority of these guys in the first couple rounds both years bat left-handed - AR, Kjerstad, Stowers, Gunnar, Servideo, etc.
  12. I believe I am with most folks who re-rated our prospects with putting all six 2020 draft picks in our top 20 or 22. I am listing the prospects in groups of five. It will be interesting to see who produces what stats and where between Westburn, Servideo and Adam Hall. I remain a big fan of Adam Hall and was hoping for a breakout year in the friendlier confines of Frederick after he put up pretty good numbers in DelMarva. AR, GrayRod, DL Hall, Kjerstad, Mountcastle Hays, Diaz, Bauman, Gunnar, Mayo Lowther, Harvey, Westburg, Kremer, Hall Baumler, Haskin, Servideo, Akin, Wells Stowers, Rom, Hernaiz, Hanifee, McKenna Zimmerman, Bannon, Stauffer, Pop, LRod Because of high pick and spread it around/make every pick count 2020 plan from our FO, our prospect list has improved more than most teams. Hard to believe an early 2019 pick like Stowers could be outside our top 20. I was looking forward to seeing the adjustments/improvements made by Stowers last off-season. Our farm system is beginning to show some real depth. We can sprinkle in some international prospects soon. Two interesting questions for another thread - when will the first Elias/Perez J2 prospect make our top 30? When will the fist Elias/Perez J2 make our top 10? Top 5?
  13. This is something I have always believed and thoroughly endorsed during the AM years and before. It seems like the easiest way to compete is to have quality young SPs leading the team. Free agent pitching is so expensive. Trading for true SP1s and SP2s is very expensive. Free agent hitting - only expensive at the highest tier. All that said, I think the Astros FO that led to their championship and our current front office, while perhaps showing a willingness to draft SP prospects with early picks for the right talents, has shown a clear preference to draft bats and trade for pitchers. It is taking me time to absorb this lesson and understand if it is the best way to build a leading farm system and major league team. Part of this is that the Astros have been ahead of the curve regarding turning guys like Verlander and Cole and Ryan Pressly into the best version of themselves, but it will be interesting to see what happens as the rest of the league adapts analytically and catches up. It will be interesting to see the hit rate on our pitching prospects moving forward and who our front office drafts as our system fills up with hitters.
  14. Overwhelmingly, I enjoyed the draft discussion here. I expect Kjerstad would as well - assuming he has the same folks on ignore that I do.
  15. I think Boras mis-judged the market and failed his client and, as a result, the kid will receive less from the Blue Jays than what the Os were prepared to pay. If Martin/Boras had requested slot from us or accepted/requested $500k-$750 less than slot, I think there is a good chance we would have drafted and signed Martin. Martin will work something out with Toronto. Very few kids turn down a MLB team over a $4M bonus - it is nearly unprecedented for that to happen - let alone a $6M-$7M bonus.
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