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Everything posted by hoosiers

  1. It is amazing how much information is provided to/for you, almost exclusively, in this thread and how you interpret that data. Folks have explained the international processes in general, the complications, found insightful articles, and some "investment" results and somehow you want to be the teenager that doesn't do any chores or homework and yet points to the shiny Dre Beats headphones and yells - I want that one.
  2. Not sure if you are aware, but the Orioles had a negligible international presence when Mike Elias was hired and had not signed a top 30 international prospect in some time - only two or three guys that we signed in the last 20 years might have made a top 50 list. Mike Elias had to build out an international scouting network basically from scratch. Also, most of the top international prospects at the age of 14 reach verbal agreements with clubs to be formally signed at 16. Mike Elias was hired in Nov 2018. Koby Perez in Jan 2020. The fact that these two put together an international scout
  3. In the past (say 10 years ago), the best values were the lower paid guys (I'm going to say $10k-$250k) and the $M bonus babies did not work out as well. There were also value opportunities in kids not signed at 16 who grew and had value as 17 and 18 year olds. I wonder if scouting has improved in the last decade or if some have a secret sauce that nets better players, but I do not know if one organization has consistently outproduced others. It would be interesting to see an analysis updating the return in terms of prospect status and big league production versus signing bonuses since
  4. Hard to believe OP leaves out the J&J vaccine that should be approved in about a month. J&J has been producing its vaccine out of two mid-west plants since July and has said it will distribute 1B vaccines in 2021. Given the elderly and those in nursing homes are getting the vaccine early, there should be a rapid decline in the death rate starting in Feb. There are other factors like improved therapeutics and increased testing that should have the US moving rapidly to the other side of this virus in March/April. I think MLB could delay ST and OD around 4-6 weeks.
  5. It is not easy. I have posted many times since the Bedard trade that folks here loved the trade, but wouldn't do it again. What Tampa has created is multi-faceted (as I posted above): - depth - makes it easier to make a trade when there is a quality player waiting to be next man up. - reputation for trading - you like someone on Tampa, well, call them up. Tampa will deal with you, but be prepared to overpay. - a very strong analytics and scout team that can spot under-valued players who can be corrected to be better in other organizations. - an understanding that 80%
  6. I know right! Perhaps not a surprise we would be in the top third given our draft budget, but still the "I get paid to do my job" crowd may find it surprising that every organization in baseball is trying to accomplish the same thing and the situation ME inherited - with perhaps below average player development, international operations, analytics, equipment, etc - across the board throughout the entire organization plus approx $35-$40M of low production payroll on the major league roster into years 3 of the rebuild (and another $23M in year 4). The early returns of ME's body of work
  7. Bedard was absolutely dominating AA when he got hurt. He was about to vault into BA Top 25 or so status at mid-season. MB has put up strong numbers, but has not received near the prospect recognition Bedard was approaching. Eager for MB to get his chance and hope he can become a solid SP3.
  8. I don't know what there is to "refute", You and I may have different definitions of luck. Trading a prospect near peak value may not be as lucky as you think, but a smart course of action. There have been numerous examples of players traded before seeing value drop and players traded who see their values rights - both happened in the Chris Archer deal that included Glasnow. You have to trust your scouts and your development guys and your GM. Certainly, the Astros had top draft picks that were destined not to pan out. Whether the rest is luck or not is subjective IMO and not definitiv
  9. Maybe the Padres are the right team, but the OP asks for the wrong shortstop - not Cronenworth, but former elite prospect (somewhat similar to the Felix Pie trade) Jorge Mateo. Mateo still has some prospect upside, should be at least a decent defensive shortstop but struggled with major league pitching in a sss in 2020. Perhaps Mateo is ideal and cheap for the bench role the Padres have in store for him, but maybe he could produce a nice return if given a full time major league shortstop opportunity.
  10. Separately, kudos to our front office for this recognition. It is entirely possible that this rating is a high water mark considering who we graduate, but if we continue to draft well and have B prospects step forward and keep taking our appropriate share or more of international talent, it is also possible for us to retain or improve our ranking entering 2022.
  11. I think we will graduate Mountcastle and AR among our top 100 crop. It is entirely conceivable that our #5 overall pick in 2021 could make a top 100 list and that GHenderson improves to the point of being a top 100 player. Remember, our 2020 draft consisted of passing on a reputed top talent for Kjerstad and a bundle of other talent. Hoping/expecting that the other talent develops into quality prospects is the plan. So hopefully, that comes to fruition. Also, remember that the 2020 draft was somewhat of a crapshoot considering the lack of reduced scouting exposure - one has to hope that ou
  12. Cronenworth was a house on fire for a chunk of last season. I am not sure of the defensive profile - though it seems he may carve out a role as a 300-400 AB super-utility guy on that team. It is a crazy amount of talent amassed in San Diego after what seemed like a failed run just a few years ago. It is an interesting question whether to trade one of Diaz/Hays for him - I think both Os prospects are more likely to be regulars. Hays has a stronger minor league resume, but jury is still out on his ability to hit major league pitching.
  13. Prospects fail all the time. The important thing is to have as many picks (and as many higher picks or higher budgets) as possible. Think of the 2012-16 run made by the Orioles and the large number of pitching prospects we had that did not pan out appropriately - starting with high picks Matusz and Bundy (maybe not failures, but not really successful picks). Sure, the run was fueled by low cost, young players drafted and acquired via trade - Jones, Wieters, Machado, Tillman, Britton, Davis, etc. One can always point to failed draft picks across many teams and high up in the draft.
  14. What I see from afar is a team that has played pretty hard for Hyde since Day 1. I have to imagine that Hyde and Elias are very much on the same page regarding how to handle the team, play the right players in the right situations and player development. If 2021 is the last guaranteed year, I would expect Hyde's option to be picked up or a new contract executed to involve additional years.
  15. I appreciate the opinions of RR and Frobby regarding Yastrzemski. Not sure how dealing him represents anything other than a massive internal error in player evaluation and/or development. Yas was good almost immediately after being dealt. MY needed less than 175 minor league plate appearances after leaving the Orioles before producing 5.5 WAR in under 600 ABs at the major league level and top 10 NL MVP status. Call it hindsight or MMQB, but I can only look at a rebuilding team dealing away a prospect with that production and call it a massive fail.
  16. Yes, a clear error in player evaluation, but again one should hoard prospects until a better prospect is offered or until they have lost their prospect status. It is difficult to fathom that a rebuilding Orioles franchise would both make such a massive player evaluation error and deal away a good prospect.
  17. I hope everyone is enjoying a safe, happy and healthy holiday season! Best wishes to everyone here at the OH!
  18. Yastremski is already on his way to being the equivalent of one of those guys. The reason rebuilding teams should hoard their prospects is that they don't know which ones will pan out.
  19. Eager to see Akin (along with many of our minor league pitchers this year) in the majors this year and how he develops. He is a pretty unique case with two high quality offers that offers possibilities of developing into a good SP (likely needing advancement of a third pitch), a two pitch reliever or perhaps someone along the lines of Yarborough in Tampa - a good starter for bullpen games.
  20. The Astros are being sued by their former owner for tanking - Beyond the Box Score Interesting article on tanking that is a bit old, but specifically relates to the Astros and the owner's issues - including suing the prior owner - who counter-sued.
  21. Committing to a rebuild through tanking is multi-layered - in my opinion. - it means putting out a weaker team to generate losses to draft higher. - Often, those weaker teams include overpriced and mediocre performance on veteran contracts that can be difficult to move. - It also means not investing in better free agents because the incremental wins are not worth the cost. The free agent investments that are made can be for lower $ veterans to provide some semblance of decency to a major league team or reclamation projects for previously injured players who are coming back.
  22. I don't think Bell is a bad comp for Mancini and the trade package received is not a bad one. Still, I believe Mancini has been a better overall hitter, had more 2+ WAR years than Bell and a higher peak war so far. If Mancini had performed well in 2020, he would be considered a comfortably better hitter than Bell - who really only has a strong 2019 season to show for what have been considered strong baseball skills. I would prefer a better package for Mancini especially if Trey comes back healthy and productive,
  23. Why wouldn't we do what we just did? Forget Iglesias production and price tag, he wasn't a long term asset and he was attractive to another team. Why not deal him for some C-C+ prospects and repeat process when the SS carousel has more candidates than open seats? I don't get the criticism or why folks think it was a payroll-based move. Elias is creating prospects for us from thin air - almost last SS available guys. Elias, like what he watched develop in Houston, is laser focused on gathering as many prospects as he can at the cost of wins on the major league roster - until he de
  24. Agree w Drungo that the defensive profile is a big factor regarding my interest. My interest is w Kim playing a solid SS.
  25. I would think the downside is Kim averaging. 5 WAR, the likely production around 1-1.5 WAR and perhaps some upside to those numbers. I would need to see more analysis on Kim to have a more definitive opinion. Kim is younger and has more upside than the guys in the comps above. I could see Kim w an OPS around 725-760 w some upside.
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