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Three Run Homer

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  1. To me the wild card in this draft is Anthony Servideo. He was not a prospect at all heading into the season, but he was one of the best players in the NCAA at the time the season ended in March. Did he make a great leap forward, or did he just have a hot streak?
  2. I gave it a B. Elias took two big gambles in this draft. First, by going underslot at 1:2, he gambled that there would be worthwhile overslot talent available in the later rounds. It looks like that gamble paid off to some extent in rounds 4 and 5. The second gamble was to put a lot of weight on the performance of players who got off to a hot start against weak competition this spring. If you take early season performance at face value, Kjerstad and Servideo made a great leap forward this season. If that improvement had been sustained over a full season, they would have moved way up the draft boards. Hopefully Elias had his sabermetricians study how much early season performance spikes have carried over into the rest of the season historically, while his scouts scoured the film to see if they could detect a change in mechanics or approach that would explain their performance spike.
  3. This is great stuff. Was it typically the parents who would be paying the bills and who you therefore had to sell? Or would college kids be taking out loans to pay for these services?
  4. Good question--I was wondering the same thing. The classic "overslot" guy is someone who is ranked highly but slides because of concerns about signability.
  5. So their draft strategy is to go for guys who got off to a hot start in 2019.
  6. Better to be a disagreeable message board hater than a sock puppet for someone in the front office.
  7. Unless his number is what caused his ranking to fall, then why use the 39th pick to take a player ranked in the 70s who is also more expensive than his ranking would suggest? It's hard to believe that there were no players out there who were higher on Elias' board and who would cost less money.
  8. Complaining is a healthy response when you believe you are being screwed.
  9. I think I have a unifying theory of the O's picks: Heston, Jordan, Hudson...the O's want to corner the market on players whose first names are actually last names. So here are some top 100 prospects still on the board as of 5:40 PM prospects that we could take at 74: Cole Wilcox, Carson Montgomery, Cole Henry, Logan Allen, Clayton Beeter, Tanner Witt, Gage Workman, Tyler Gentry, Chase Davis, Mason Erla, Connor Phillips, and Beck Way. That is the pool, you heard it here first!
  10. Hudson Haskins did not appear anywhere in this thread until now!
  11. We certainly need a good CF prospect, and I like things that I'm reading about him, but I haven't seen him ranked in the top 50 anywhere. He is certainly not an overslot propsect. It's hard for me to believe that he was the best player available at this point. It's looking more and more like the Angelos boys are being cheapskates. Yes, I know that they ponied up for Rutschman last year, but if the Angelos' family's finances were more shaky than other teams' going into the season, they may feel the need to retrench more in response to the pandemic than other owners.
  12. O's pick second tomorrow. Jared Kelley (HS RHP) seems like the consensus highest-rated prospect still on the board. Is this where the O's will use the money they saved by taking Kjerstad with the second pick?
  13. Ordinarily, it would not be a good idea to put a lot of weight on a 16 game sample when it suggests a significantly higher level of ability than a player's previous body of work. But if Mejdal and company broke down the film were able to to convince themselves that Kjerstad's improvement in results corresponded to an observable improvement in his approach and/or mechanics between seasons, then this could be the kind of information edge that could justify going against the grain and picking him at 1:2. We'll see. I hope they are right.
  14. Heyman isn't even correct. There were plenty of rumors circulating before the draft that the O's were considering Kjerstad and other underslot players.
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