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Everything posted by wildcard

  1. My guess: If they trade Cobb at the deadline they will already have paid 2/3s of his salary. If Elias can dump half of Cobb's salary for a Dominican player that will probably never make the majors......he is gone. I don't know Elias plans for Diaz but if he think he will be promoted by some time in May he will need to find at bats for him. Nunez staying on a 30 homer pace means he could make 2 or 3 million in arbitration. I don't see Elias paying that when he can replace him with a current O's prospect make less than 600K. Alberto will be a one and a half years from FA in July. So if someone makes an offer that gets Elias a good return Alberto is gone. Valaika is almost the same player. Hit lefties but not righties. Plays a decent 2B with some versatility. And Valaika will be cheaper by a million or two. Davis probably stays on the 26 man roster so they can see if there is a work stoppage in the next two years that saves the O's part of his salary. So the bench is Davis, a catcher, an outfielder and an infielder that can play SS well enough to backup Iglesias. With Martin at AAA to start the season Elias has to go find that player.
  2. Elias has made moves to save money. Traded Villar, Bundy, Cashner. This off season Cobb is in the last year of his contract. Alberto has his 2nd salary arbitration year. Santander, Severino, Armstrong, Valaika and Nunez are all arbitration eligible for the first time. Will Elias make moves to keep the team cheap?
  3. Will Cobb and/or Nunez be traded this off season? Who will be the backup SS since Valaika has showed he is not that good there? Will Elias want to go to arbitration with Alberto? Will Elias find a better 3B?
  4. Glad to see Hays playing well. But I don't think Hays or Mullins have done enough to earn a starting job. Hays has been inconsistent and injury prone. Mullins hasn't hit lefties and therefore so far is more a platoon player. I can see both of them competing for starting jobs next year until Diaz is promoted. Then Elias/Hyde will have to decide who are starters and who backs up.
  5. Bannon was added to the 60 man roster on Sept 5th and was in Bowie. I am not saying he is ready to start the 2021 season. I will be interested to see if Elias will spend 3M on Alberto in arbitration.
  6. I think there are several alternatives better than what Alberto has shown over the last two seasons. 1) Elias will probably find someone equal or better on the waiver wire or for a small purchase with a salary less the 3M. Probably for the minimum. 2) Bannon may not be ready yet but may be by mid next season. 3) Even Valiaka vs lefties and Wilkerson vs righties would be a better solution and cheaper. Though I would rather find one player than go with a platoon.
  7. Not sure I am understanding you here. Are you saying the a projected 3M salary for Hanser who has a 266/284/367/651 vs right-handed pitching is acceptable? And right-handed pitching is probably at least 70% of the pitchers faced.
  8. No because Stewart has options, offers the team some depth and is not arbitration eligible. Nunez has no options and is arbitration eligible. Its better for the O's to trade Nunez.
  9. I think Mancini signs for a 3.8M base with incentives based on plate appearances. Incentives that would reach 7M for 600 PAs. I don't think he can be cut further than 3.8m under CBA rules. If Mancini is healthy and productive he is worth 7M. He can go on the IL or he has options and can go to Norfolk if he is not productive in worse case. He is the O's 1B/DH. Doesn't see a day in the OF. Davis is the O's 26th man. Does not play except as a defensive replacement. And like Tony said the O's find ways to get him on the IL. Santander has a COF spot. Diaz starts the year at AAA. When the team promotes him he plays most days at the other COF spot. Neither Mullins nor Hays has proven they are an everyday CF. They share CF until one of them wins the job full time. Until Diaz is promoted Hays can play one of the corners when Mullins is in CF. Mountcastle is a DH/1B who can play some LF. He plays 1B to keep Mancini rested. If Mancini is not healthy Mountacastle is the 1B. He plays LF when someone needs a break. But he gets most of his at bats at DH in 2021. If Mancini is traded sometime in the future Mountcastle is the heir apparent at 1B. Stewart is proving in his time this season that he is a defensive liability. His best position is DH or as a fill-in when someone is injured. He has options. Nunez needs to be traded his off season because there are not enough at bats for him next season. Diaz, Hays/Mullins, Santander are the team's best defensive OF. Mancini if healthy is the teams best defensive 1B that can also hit. I see a lot of movement in the infield this off season but Nunez is the only one I see leaving the O's this off season of the players discussed in this post. That is my best guess.
  10. Maybe, but maybe not for the reason you are thinking. Phillips almost needed elbow surgery in March. But a 2nd opinion kept him from pursuing that route. He walked off the mound with a sore elbow last night. If the injury is serious he may be in for a long rehab.
  11. I hope he does go to a good team. I like him. There will just not be enough at bats for him next year. And he is arbitration eligible.
  12. That is all true. However, when the O's have Mancini and Mountcastle at DH/1B plus Santander, Stewart, Hays, and Mullins in the OF. With Diaz coming soon. There are not many at bats for Nunez whether he is average or not.
  13. I haven't heard Hyde project Nunez or Sisco as Gold Glovers at a high skill position the way he has with Mullins.
  14. No. I think if he was going to talk about the O's players he should cover the most important points. If the title is "Baltimore's losing season has been a Productive One." Then why pick Alberto, Severino/Sisco and Nunez? Why not pick Kremer, Akin, Lopez, Mullins and Hays? All of those players mean more to the O's future. He says Alberto may be an adequate stopgap and projects him to have a 300ish OBP. How do those two things go together, Fact is his inability to hit right-handed pitching shown in his .269 -.285 OBP over the last two season may cost him his job. Elias will decide if that kind of production is worth 3M in salary arbitration. And I don't think its looking that look for Hanser to stay with the O's. The O's have Bannon, Herrera (who is getting rave reviews for the Bowie camp), Wilkerson who hit for a .787 OPS vs righties in 2019 plus many cheaper waiver wire alternatives that Elias will have to pick from. He doesn't even mention Adley Rutschman when reviewing the catchers. We know that Severino and Sisco are just holding down the spot until he arrives. So if the article is about the future then talk about the players that will be part of the core. Don't ignore them. If the article is about the productivity for the Orioles then why focus on Nunez who he says took a step back and may be traded. Again projecting his 300ish OBP. I agree he may be traded but I don't think it fits the article as well as other O's players he could have picked. In many cases I don't think the projections fit the title.
  15. I didn't think it represented the O's that well.
  16. I guess the O's were not that impressed either.
  17. Yes, I agree. Not playing SS that well hurts him as a UIF. He hits lefties well. Does not hit righties well. Just like Alberto. Both are arbitration eligible. Not sure Elias offers either one arbitration. Alberto out of options. Valaika has one left. I think Elias restructures the infield this off season. Mancini/Mountcastle at 1B. Igelaias at SS/DH. He doesn't have to make a decision on Ruiz until spring when 1-3 year players contracts are picked up. But Elias will no doubt be looking for more production from 3B. 2B and UIF is where we may see changes early in the off season. Martin and Bannon probably begin the season at AAA if there such a thing next year. Whoever is brought in will be cheap.
  18. Ziimmermann, Lowther, Brian Gonzalez and Kevin Smith are all lefties.
  19. One of the other factors is that the O's have a lot of cheap pitchers. Here are 20 pitchers that will be making close to the minimum: Kremer, Akin, Lopez, Fulmer, Stewart, Zimmerman, Baumann, Lowther, Harvey, Scott, Tate, Fry, Lakins, Valdez, Pop, Eshelman, Mattson, Phillips, Kline, and Sulser. And with the roster going to 26 players they will probably only carry 13 pitchers most of the season. Why should they pay more for Armstrong when he will be out of options, 30 years old and is coming off an injured back?
  20. Mancini, Santander and Severino will be offer arbitration or sign one year deals before the offer is due.
  21. I think the O's offer 600K.
  22. Will they offer Armstrong arbitration?
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