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Everything posted by wildcard

  1. Good comparison to Pedroia. Good runner but not a burner. Some power but not a lot. .299 hitter with a .365 OBP. Scored a lot of runs and some years could drive a bunch. ROY, MVP, 4 time AS, 4 time GG. If Martin could do that it would be quite a career.
  2. Last year Elias first seven draft picks were position players. If this year the draft is pitching heavy, take 'em.
  3. I find Lacy grades and writeup very interesting: Fastball: 60/ Slider: 60/ Change-up: 60/ Curve: 55/ Control: 50/ Overall: 60 Though Lacy exuded projection and top-five-rounds talent as a Texas high schooler in 2017, his $1 million price tag to give up his commitment to Texas A&M caused him to slide to the Indians in the 31st round. He has improved as hoped and will command a much higher bonus in the 2020 Draft, where he could surpass Jeff Granger (fifth overall, 1993) as the highest selection in Aggies history. After ranking third in NCAA Division I in opponent average (.162) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (13.2) as a sophomore, he pitched well with the U.S. collegiate national team in the summer. Lacy has boosted his fastball from 87-91 mph in high school to 92-97 these days, using his 6-foot-4 frame to create downhill plane, and hitters just don't seem to get good swings against it. He employs two distinct breaking balls, a downer curveball and a harder slider in the low 80s, with the slider surpassing his curve this spring and becoming a plus pitch. His changeup fades and sinks and grades as a well above-average pitch at its best, and it should become more consistently plus as he uses it more often. Lacy's biggest need is to improve his command and control. There's some effort in his three-quarters delivery and he's still learning to harness his overpowering stuff, so he can't always locate his pitches where he wants. Even without precise placement, he's a left-hander who can get swings and misses with four different offerings.
  4. I missed Bauer in my analysis. My bad. I suspect Bowden's definition of success is much higher than mine. I think Prior and Taillon are two examples of pitcher that did find some success in the majors. And though Hochevar did not have success has a starter, he did as a reliever. He should probably have been switched to a reliever earlier in his career.
  5. Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt. While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA. And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.
  6. Thanks. Very good post. Good comparison of what Martin's upside could be.
  7. As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB. Mike Trout and Joey Votto. Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB. That is a total of three. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them. Odds are against it. College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all. Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.
  8. I think Tork has a 70% chance of being a force in the middle of the lineup so if he is available I would take him. I think Lacy, Hancock and Martin all are in the 50% range of being productive major leaugers. I think the O's have to know who they are and what is most important for them. Starting pitching is the key to them being a playoff team again and its hard for them to acquire. Therefore if Tork is gone I would take Lacy #2, Its hard of find a young lefty with his size and stuff. Add him to Rodriguez, Hall and Means would raise the odds that the O's could put together a solid rotation for the future. Martin has a 50% chance to be a 350 OBP leadoff hitter, 2B that produces 15-20 homers and steals per season IMO. I don't think he is a 850 OPS guy as mainly a singles and doubles hit on a normal basis. He may do that one or two times in his career. Vandy has him listed at 170 lbs. He looks like that is right. He can add 15 lbs in the next few seasons and still be pretty thin. He is not built for power. His arm is average. He may have Hays speed but he does not have Hays arm so he probably is not going to move Hays out of CF. He is a good backup CF. Henderson has a better arm for 3B. The arm also makes Martin a good backup 3B. His best position is probably 2B which is normally not a #2 pick. While I would take Lacy I think Elias will take Martin. Mainly because of the success he had in picking Correa and Bregman and failure he had in taking Appel and Aikens with high draft picks.
  9. Lets not act like Lacy came out of nowhere. In 2019 he had 15 starts and 88.2 IP. His ERA was 2.13, 130 K, 1.038 WHIP. He improved on that his spring. His body of work includes 19 starts over a year and a month of 2020. I don't think any scout is just evaluating him over 4 starts.
  10. And there is probably a 90% chance the Martin does not become a perennial All-Star. Fact is that if Lacy or Hancock are a #3 pitcher and Martin is an average 2B the O's need the #3 pitcher more than an average second baseman.
  11. Jim Callis: "Some teams will have Lacy ahead of Martin" Good video:
  12. Lacy and Hancock are rated the best pitcher in this years draft. Do you have any data that says they will not be TOR starters?
  13. I already did compare Martin to the top pitchers based on the history of draft since 2000. Basically whether the O's pick Martin, Hancock or Lacy there is a 50/50 chance that he will have a successful major league career.
  14. I agree that Martin is a plus hitter for OBP. not for power though. When someone is described as a sneaky plus runner what does that mean? A plus runner is a plus runner. What is the sneaky all about? I just don't think a plus OBP hitter whose best position is 2B is a #2 pick. Not compared to a TOR pitcher.
  15. Well, at least we agree that :any has justified a 1:2 pick. I understand why Martin is valued high by scouts. Leader on a top college program. High numbers for average and OBP. Its an easy pick to go with the flow. But I see mid teens power. average to slightly above average speed. A position that can be fulled with lesser picks. He's doesn't have what I want in a #2 pick when there are starting pitchers that can be had that maybe TOR guys.
  16. I agree several outlets have martin going #2. I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.
  17. He's more of a solid than a plus runner ...... Jim Callis
  18. Elias came through the scouting ranks. He has hired scouts that he feels are an upgrades to what he O's had in the past. He and his scouts know how to sell a player on coming to the O's. He will sell that the team is focused on 2022/2023 were these draftees if they think they are good can be a part of the near future with the O's if they preform well. Its offering opportunity if the player is good enough to move fast through the system. Rutschman moved from rookie ball to A ball in a few months. He would probably have moved from A+ ball to AAA this year if there was a full season. And been in the majors next season. Kremer and Baumann were moved up mid season. Scouts can talk that stuff up. Especially to a kid who thinks he has the stuff to be a major leaguer.
  19. No that is not what I am saying. I am saying that I don't see the speed or power that would normally be seen in a #2 pick in Martin. And #2 players are normally SS, 3B, OF, P or C because the skill required to play those positions. 2B is normally someone that can't play SS or 3B. Look at Alberto. He does not have the arm for 3B nor the range and arm for SS. So his best positions 2B. You don't need a #2 pick to find that kind of player. TOR Pitchers on the other hand are hard to find. So Lacy and Hancock are more attractive at #2 to me. But then again I am not making the pick.
  20. Its stated a little backwards but what I think he is saying is: For the college player or advanced high school player that does not get taken in the 5 rounds, the O's can be attractive to that player because there is opportunity because the major league level is still building. So if there is a SS, 3B or pitcher that thinks he can move fast the O's are a good organization to sign with because Ruiz, Iglesias and the current pitchers are not long term solutions. If a non drafted player is willing to sign for 20K because he thinks he is good then the real thing he is looking for is opportunity to move fast to the majors where there is a opening.
  21. Molitor was drafted as a SS. He only spent on season in the minors and moved 2B his first year with the Brewers because they had Robin Yount at SS. Molitor was a speedster and had the nickname the Ignitor. He stole 30 bases his first year in the majors and 40 bases 4 times in his career. He is not a good comp for Martin IMO.
  22. Nice writeup. As DrungoHazewood said in another thread, its rare to see a 2B selected #2. You make even more case for that by showing that Ackley was not a 2B in college though he was moved to 2B by the Mariners in his first pro season. Of course, Martin was not a 2B this spring for his college team either. 3B/CF were his two most used positions. But as Jim Callis points out Martin had trouble throwing from 3B which moved him to CF. But he is reported to be an above average runner not a speediest which makes him more likely to be a 2B as a pro. As far as Weeks is concerned he had a lot more power that Martin projects to have. That made it easier for Weeks to stick in the majors. Martin does not appear to have that going for him. Martin's pluses appear to be a strong OBP, smarts and leadership ability. That seems pretty thin for a #2 pick. I am surprised he is ranked as high as he is. From the two posts I made at 2B and pitching draftees this decade, it appears that pitchers have as much or more chance of sticking in the majors as 2B. So Lacy and Hancock seem like they should be ranked as well as Martin. Maybe higher because to the position they play.
  23. You need to keep up. I said the that the 750 OPS was probably low. But then again the two other #2 drafted second baseman this decade didn't do much better than that. I am open minded on this and doing research to see what I come up with. It appears that the highly thought of players in the draft only pan out 50% of the time. So ir doesn't look like anyone but maybe Torkelson is a lock to have a good major league career. JMO
  24. From Pressboxonline: “I went down to the Dominican this winter. I was staying at a hotel as the same winter league team that Diaz was staying at. I saw Diaz, I talked to him. He had his father there from Cuba, and we had breakfast together. I followed him. He’s got really good ability. He’s got power to all fields. He can run, he can throw. He’s a five-tool player. I think it’s just a question of getting him interested. It looks like he gets disinterested if he’s not challenged. That will resolve itself as he moves up.” Interesting interview with Dan. Scroll to the bottom to listen. https://pressboxonline.com/2020/05/22/former-orioles-evp-dan-duquette-on-trey-mancini-chris-davis-and-more/
  25. 16 pitchers have been selected #1 or #2 since 2000 7 of 12 have found some success Success Stories 1) Justin Verlander #2 2004 225-129 3.33 ERA Still playing 2) David Price #1 2007 150-80 3.31 ERA Still playing 3) Stephen Strasburgh #1 2009 112-58 3.17 ERA Still playing 4) Gerrit Cole #1 2011 94-52 3.22 ERA Still playing 5) Mark Prior #2 2001 5 mlb seasons, 42-29 3.51 ERA last play in 2013 6) Jameson Taillon #2 2010 4 mlb seasons, 29-24 3.67 ERA 7) Luke Hochevar #1 2006 9 mlb seasons, 46-65 4.98 ERA Move to the pen has helped him since 2013, last play in 2016 Just made the majors 8) Danny Hultzen #2 2011 0-0 0.00 ERA in 2019 Still playing Made the majors but little good happened 9) Bryan Bullington #1 2002 5 mlb seasons 1-9 5.62 ERA last played in 2015 10) Greg Reynolds #2 2006 3 mlb seasons, 6-11 7.01 ERA last played in 2016 11) Adam Johnson #2 2000 2 mlb seasons, 1-3 10.25 last played 2009 Didn't make it 12) Mark Appel #1 2013 Highest level AAA last played 2017 Still moving through the minors 13) Casey Mize #1 2018 22 at AA 14) Hunter Green #2 2017 19 at A ball, TJ surgery at end of 2019 15) Tyler Kolek #2 2014 23 year old at A ball in 2019 16) Brady Aiken #1 2014 23 years old at A ball in 2019
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