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wildcard

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Posts posted by wildcard


  1. Reading this article on Asa Lacy,  it would seen that he has a lot of talent but will need to change his delivery to find the control needed to make the majors.

    https://www.camdenchat.com/2020/6/3/21278323/mlb-draft-2020-asa-lacy-preview-orioles

    The video shows Lacy not looking at the plate as he delivers  some of his pitches.   

    Elias has shown a lot of faith in Chris Holt in his first year.  He has moved him for minor league pitching coordinator to pitching director that includes the majors and minors.   Some of the O's pitchers have commented on how Holt has helped them.

    How much faith do you think Elias  has in Holt?   

    The O's have had some excellent pitching coaches in the past.   Bamberger, Miller, Wallace.    Could Holt reach that level of importance to  O's pitching?

     


  2. 12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    Oh come on.  Your thing is to advocate for sweeping decisions to be made on 18 at bats.  After like 20 years we can kid you about it.  I'm sure you can come up with some kind of thing about random players from 1878 to make fun of me.

    No, 1978 is your thing.  I think I'll leave that to you.   Just when you kid don't make it an insult.


  3. One of the best rebounder/fast break starters I have ever seen.   Grab the rebound and snap a throw down court to Earl Monroe, Kevin Loughery or Jack Marin on the run.   It seemed almost like one motion for him.   And a great individual to boot.  RIP Wes.

    • Thanks 1

  4. 1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

    It appears to be an overall weak draft.  That there was no spring season this year helps that along.  

    They say its a strong draft for pitchers.  And I think Tork is a strong #1.   It just that the #2 is not as strong as some years IMO


  5. 16 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Well where I disagree with @wildcardand what he seems to not want to understand...is that Lacy/Hancock aren't out of the Strasburg/Verlander mold.  There's not a Strasburg/Verlander in this draft.  If you had a sliding scale, it appears that Lacy/Hancock are closer to Matusz/Gausman territory.  Great pitchers with lot of upside but I don't think anyone here would be excited for Matusz part 2.  Some here like Gausman, I never saw him as anything great.

    I'd prefer to take the consensus pick for the best bat in the draft (Martin) or the biggest power bat (Tork) if he fell to us rather than taking a shot on a pitcher that's not at a Verlander level if I'm picking #2 this year.  And then going with arms at 30 and 39.

    Austin Martin and Rutschman in our system, you really gotta like that.  

    I do agree with you that there is no Strasburg/Verlander in this draft.   That is true in most drafts.   Then again Martin  does not have the potential that a team would normally want in a #2  pick either.  Not at lot of power and 2nd basemen are rarely picked #2.   As has been pointed put, Rickie Week is the only 2nd baseman that has been picked that high since 2000.

    I put Martin, Lacy and Hancock on the same level in terms of talent and odds of being successful.  I also think its harder to find high quality pitchers for Camden Yards then to find a good hitter.

    • Upvote 1

  6. 47 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

    Couple of things. I don’t recall 100% now from where- I think it was a local radio interview- but Callis poured some cold water on the whole Correa $ underslot  comparison. He basically said many teams had him at the top and his agent really screwed up.  

    I really hope we take Martin. Callis thinks he is a .300, 20 HR type. We know he can get on base. Try him in CF and then move him to 2nd base if that doesn’t work out. You are a perennial All Star at those spots if you put up those kind of numbers. I can’t stand the guy but Pedroia was a big part of some good Red Sox teams. Martin’s bat has some comparisons. 

    The Brewers have been able to mix and match their way to some success but in general you better build your position player core from within. We see how much players age now so quickly. 

    Most contending teams in recent years have a strong position player  core from within. Look at Cubs- Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Rizzo. I know Rizzo was a trade and the White Sox traded for Moncada and Jimenez but we really don’t have assets to deal right now to get back top prospects. We need to hit on these picks and hopefully hit on some International players. I have some faith that are new staff can get more out of the pitching we have than previous regimes. I would not be angry about Lacy but I would take my chances on some arms at picks 30 and/or 39.

    Good comparison to Pedroia.  Good runner but not a burner.  Some power but not a lot.   .299 hitter with a .365 OBP.   Scored a lot of runs and some years could drive  a bunch.   ROY, MVP,  4 time AS, 4 time GG.   If Martin could do that it would be quite a career.


  7. 8 hours ago, Spl51 said:

    The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

    I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

    Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

    HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

    https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

    Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

    I find Lacy grades and writeup very interesting:

    Fastball: 60/ Slider: 60/  Change-up: 60/   Curve: 55/   Control: 50/  Overall: 60

    Though Lacy exuded projection and top-five-rounds talent as a Texas high schooler in 2017, his $1 million price tag to give up his commitment to Texas A&M caused him to slide to the Indians in the 31st round. He has improved as hoped and will command a much higher bonus in the 2020 Draft, where he could surpass Jeff Granger (fifth overall, 1993) as the highest selection in Aggies history. After ranking third in NCAA Division I in opponent average (.162) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (13.2) as a sophomore, he pitched well with the U.S. collegiate national team in the summer.

    Lacy has boosted his fastball from 87-91 mph in high school to 92-97 these days, using his 6-foot-4 frame to create downhill plane, and hitters just don't seem to get good swings against it. He employs two distinct breaking balls, a downer curveball and a harder slider in the low 80s, with the slider surpassing his curve this spring and becoming a plus pitch. His changeup fades and sinks and grades as a well above-average pitch at its best, and it should become more consistently plus as he uses it more often.

    Lacy's biggest need is to improve his command and control. There's some effort in his three-quarters delivery and he's still learning to harness his overpowering stuff, so he can't always locate his pitches where he wants. Even without precise placement, he's a left-hander who can get swings and misses with four different offerings.

    • Upvote 1

  8. 10 hours ago, hoosiers said:

    So, former GM Jim Bowden is now writing for the Atlantic.  According to his research, there were 42 players taken among the 80 players selected in the first five picks of the 16 MLB drafts between 2000 and 2015 and only five of the 42 have justified the selection - Verlander, Price, Strausburg, Cole and Bauer.  Two of those pitchers, Verlander and Strausburg, were "no-brainer" decisions.  It is a hit rate far below WC's opening post.

    I missed Bauer in my analysis. My bad.

    I suspect Bowden's definition of success is much higher than mine.  I think Prior and Taillon are two examples of pitcher that did find some success in the majors.  And though Hochevar did not have success has a starter, he did as a reliever.  He should probably  have been switched to a reliever earlier in his career.


  9. 2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

    I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

    Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt.   While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA.  And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.


  10. 5 hours ago, Spl51 said:

    The comp is more to do with them having similar stances, slightly pull heavy swings, and profile than production.

    I googled Mookie Betts as a prospect and his scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-leads-bostons-updated-top-20-list/c-85946126

    Here is Martin's scouting grades from the same place:

    HIT: 65 POWER: 50 RUN: 55 ARM: 50 FIELD: 55

    https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/austin-martin-668885

    Pretty similar profiles. Of course 95% of players with those scouting grades don't produce like Mookie Betts will.

    Thanks.  Very good post.   Good comparison of what Martin's upside could be.


  11. 5 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

    I completely understand your desire to draft an outstanding college starter, like Lacy. It would not be a 'bad' pick, certainly, as Lacy is well-regarded as the top starter in the draft and we absolutely need great pitching prospects added to the current group we have. So again, I get that. It's also true that Martin's defensive home is questionable. I personally think we'll try him at SS and then he'll likely convert to 2B.  But to say that Martin projects to a .350 OBP, is woefully selling him short.  The top hitter in this draft and among the best hitters scouted in recent memory, projects to a .400 OBP.  He is considered an elite bat with a great approach at the plate.

    Martin's career at Vandy, playing in the country's toughest conference-- 
    PA 665,    AB 543,   R 146,    H 200,    2B 39,   3B  4,    HR 14,    RBI 76,    SB 43,    CS 14,   BB 85,    K's 82,   BA .368,    OBP .474,    SLG 532,   OPS 1.007

    austinstats.gif

     

    One other important aspect of pitcher acquisition, is trading for it.  Free agency, as you say, may not be the route we are able to take the most advantage of, at least historically.  However, dealing from a plethora of hitting talent can net you equally impressive arms. Every team has weaknesses in their system and/or at the big league level.  Time and time again, year after year, teams deal minor league pitching prospects to fill holes... usually at the big league level.  So, while I agree that drafting our own pitching would be great, drafting hitting is simply adding quality depth to a system much in need of such an influx.  Build a great system, the pitching will come.

    As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB.  Mike Trout and Joey Votto.    Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB.   That is a total of three.  

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders

    So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them.   Odds are against it. 

    College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all.   Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.

    • Upvote 2

  12. I think Tork has a 70% chance of being a force in the middle of the lineup so if he is available I would take him.    

    I think Lacy, Hancock and Martin all are in the 50% range of being productive major leaugers.  I think the O's have to know who they are and what is most important for them.   Starting pitching is the key to them being a playoff team again and its hard for them to acquire.  Therefore if Tork is gone I would take Lacy #2,   Its hard of find a young lefty with his size and stuff.  Add him to Rodriguez, Hall and Means would raise the odds that the O's could put together a solid rotation for the future.

    Martin has a 50% chance to be a 350 OBP leadoff hitter, 2B that produces 15-20 homers and steals per season IMO.  I don't think he is a 850 OPS guy as mainly a singles and doubles hit on a normal basis.  He may do that one or two times in his career.   Vandy has him listed at 170 lbs.  He looks like that is right.  He can add 15 lbs in the next few seasons and still be pretty thin.  He is not built for power.   His arm is average.  He may have Hays speed but he does not have Hays arm so he probably is not going to move Hays out of CF.   He is a good backup CF.  Henderson has a better arm for  3B.  The arm also makes Martin a good backup 3B.   His best position is probably 2B which is normally not a #2 pick.

    While I would take Lacy I think Elias will take Martin.   Mainly because of the success he had in picking Correa and Bregman and failure he had in taking Appel and Aikens with high draft picks.


  13. 1 hour ago, Frobby said:

    The road is littered with pitchers who supposedly were TOR.    Lacy was not in anybody’s top 2 last year.   If you pick him, you’re doing it off the four games he pitched this year.    That’s a pretty high stakes gamble.    We don’t even know if his stuff would hold up over a full college season, much less a whole pro season.   He might have more upside than Martin, but he’s far more risky IMO.    Hancock is sort of the flip side; if you pick him, you’re ignoring that he didn’t look so good this spring.    I’m not saying the O’s shouldn’t pick one of them — I’m saying their risk profile is much higher IMO.    But I’m not a pro scout.   Mike Elias is, and he employs a whole raft of them.    I’ll defer to their judgment and not think twice about it.   

    Lets  not act like Lacy came out of nowhere.  In 2019 he had 15 starts and 88.2 IP.    His ERA was 2.13,  130 K,   1.038 WHIP.   He improved on that his spring.   His body of work includes 19 starts over a year and a month of 2020.   I don't think any scout is just evaluating him over 4 starts.


  14. 45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    Yes, the last 20 years of history that unambiguously shows that the actual historic rate of pitchers taken in the top four picks of the draft becoming TOR starters is something like one in 10.  There's about a 90% chance that Lacy or Hancock do not become top starters.

    And there is probably a 90% chance the Martin does not become a perennial All-Star.   

    Fact is that if Lacy or Hancock are a #3 pitcher and Martin is an average 2B the O's need the #3 pitcher more than an average second baseman.

     


  15. 26 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

    Drungo, you are wasting your time as I did.  You think WC is going to apply the same critical eye to the SP write-ups as he has for Martin?  He is throwing out TOR comps for both Lacy and for Hancock.

    Lacy and Hancock are rated the best pitcher in this years draft.  Do you have any data that says they will not be TOR starters?


  16. 57 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    What are the odds that one of the pitchers you want to take are going to be the next Mussina or Verlander or Strasburg or even Bedard?

    This century pitchers taken #2 overall are:
    2017 Hunter Greene (still very young but missed 2019)
    2014 Tyler Kolek, 23 yet to play in AA
    2011 Danny Hultzen (195 professional innings, 3 in MLB, in nine years)
    2010 Jameson Taillon (solid MLB starter)
    2006 Greg Reynolds (out of baseball since 2016, 7.01 career MLB ERA)
    2004 Verlander
    2001 Mark Prior (dominant for a few years, but 657 career innings, out of baseball since 2006)
    2000 Adam Johnson (30 ER in 26 MLB innings)

    Nine pitchers taken #3 overall in same timeframe.  None with a MLB ERA under 4.00.  Best is probably Trevor Bauer.
    The top #4 overall picks among pitchers include Gavin Floyd, Dylan Bundy, and Kevin Gausman.

    Even among the eight pitchers taken #1 overall since 2000 there have only been three top of the rotation starters in Strasburg, Cole, and Price.

    Seems like the most likely career for a pitcher taken in the top few picks of the draft is someone like Kevin Gausman.  Not a TOR starter.  It's about as likely that your pitcher ends up with Brian Matuz' career as Jameson Taillon's.  That's what you should probably compare Martin to. 
     

    I already did compare Martin to the top pitchers based on the history of draft since 2000.

    Basically whether the O's pick Martin, Hancock or Lacy there is a 50/50 chance that he will have a successful major league career.

     


  17. 15 hours ago, hoosiers said:

    The writeup of Martin in Fangraphs (which currently rates only Torkelson and Martin as 55s, everyone else lower):

    TLDR

    Martin's approach and the lift in his swing should enable all of his relatively modest raw power to play in games, and while his future defensive home is unclear it'll probably be at a premium position or as a Swiss Army Knife who plays several.

    Full Report

    If anyone ascended toward the top of the draft class late during the 2019 spring, it was Martin, who was electric during the postseason. He already had two traits that together make for a strong profile in that Martin is likely to play a premium position (though where exactly is up for debate, his arm was not great early in 2020 and he moved from 3B to CF) and has a plus-plus feel for the strike zone. He had more walks than strikeouts as a sophomore and started hitting for power late in that season, something his combination of selectivity and gorgeous, natural swing loft give him an excellent chance of doing in pro ball despite middling raw juice. Martin doesn't have huge physical tools at first blush, but he is a sneaky plus runner and should be fine in center field whether playing there full time or as part of a multi-positional package.

    WC, you are entitled to your opinion, but you are providing reservations to Martin's profile to this board not shared by any respected professional evaluating guru or service as impacting Martin's overall rating. 

    Have to love the irony of you quoting a possible negative about Martin from Callis as a reason to not draft Martin in another thread, but leave out the most important part of Callis evaluation - the draft's best pure hitter.  No place for that at 1:2?

    I agree that Martin is a plus hitter for OBP.  not for power though.   When someone is described as a sneaky plus runner what does that mean?   A plus runner is a plus runner.  What is the sneaky all about?  

    I just don't think a plus OBP hitter whose best position is 2B  is a #2 pick.   Not compared to a TOR pitcher.


  18. 1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

    Wildcard, I suggest you look for more articles on Austin Martin to get an understanding on why his is considered by most 1A or 1B to Torkelson.  Lacy is an easily justified pick at 1:2, but not because of the negatives you are providing to Martin's profile.  Your reasoning regarding these Martin negatives are not shared in any professional opinion I have read on him.  

    Well, at least we agree that :any has justified a 1:2 pick.   I understand why Martin is valued high by scouts.   Leader on a top college program.   High numbers for average and OBP.   Its an easy pick to go with the flow.

    But I see mid teens power.  average to slightly above average speed.   A position that can be fulled with lesser picks.   He's doesn't have what I want in a #2 pick when there are starting pitchers that can be had that maybe TOR guys.

    • Like 1

  19. 4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

    That would put him above average, no? Between solid (aka average/50) and plus (60)...which is more or less what I said. He is generally considered above average by everything I have read. Jim Callis also has him going to the Baltimore Orioles in his mocks. He also has had Austin going #1 in the past mocks. So, obviously, Jim Callis likes him. So does every other outlet.

    Richie Martin is an 80 runner...and...not a factor. Honestly, stolen bases are not a concern of mine in evaluating him. Austin hits, and he does it in big moments. He’s a winning player. 

    I agree several outlets have martin going #2.    I guess I am in the minority thinking Lacy or Hancock are better picks for the O's.

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