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Everything posted by wildcard

  1. Who probably will not make the opening day O's roster either.
  2. Neil Armstrong has had some genuine success. Lance Armstrong has had some success that turned out to be not all genuine. Please tell me what genuine success that Shawn Armstrong has had.
  3. When was the last time you saw an O's GM narrate a promote like that?
  4. See that is the thing. I like to read Connolly's stuff but so far most of what he says I can get for nothing elsewhere. Between the coverage of MASN, O's Hot Stove. Baltimorebaseball.com and internet searches on the O's I just have not found a reason to spend $30 a year on the Athletic. Especially when I am mostly interested in the O's. I had the on-line version of the Baltimore Sun while it on a $1 a month for a while then they switched me to $15 a month without telling me and that ended real fast. I don't mind spending on good reporting when its something of value that is not available for free. That is why I still have cable TV so I can watch the games. I spend a ton on that.
  5. Did Elias sat anything that we have nor heard before?
  6. I will take Harvey, Bleier, Givens, Castro, Sulser, Kohl Stewart as a long reliever/bulk guy, Rucker and a 2nd lefty (Scott, Fry or Hunter Cervenka) over Armstrong. On top of having a bad year last year he is 29 and has not established himself in the majors. And he is out of options. Let's see how he does in ST.
  7. Entering ST MLB's Joe Trezza says that Kohl Stewart is the favorite for the #4 spot in the O's rotation. https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-face-roster-battle-in-starting-rotation I can't agree with that. He looks more like a long reliever or bulk guy to me considering his MLB stats over the last two years. Carrer stats: Starter 1-2, 6.85 ERA, 6 S, 28.1 IP, 38 H, 14 SO, 1.855 WHIP Reliever 3-1, 3.28 ERA, 11 G, 33.2 IP, 25 H, 20 SO, 1.099 WHIP
  8. Forget what he did with the Mariners. He had a 5.13 ERA and a 1.546 WHIP with the O's. That tis pretty much failure for a reliever IMO.
  9. I agree with the players you say will likely make the team. They would have to play their way off the team. So that is 7 out of 13 pitchers on the team.
  10. Hanhold has pitch 67 innings as a reliever at AAA. He is somewhat like Akin in that he has the innings at AAA to earn a promotion but not the performance. I think both begin the year at AAA.
  11. Harvey, Givens and probably Castro are ahead of Armstrong IMO. Armstrong tried and failed last year. I want to see Sulser get a chance.
  12. Elias has wanted to see players/pitchers prove themselves at AAA before being promoted to the majors. Neither Tate nor Kline has done that. They got a cup of coffee in the majors last year out of necessity. But with more pitchers in camp I don't think they have a good chance of making the team even if they pitch well in ST.
  13. Starters that have a chance in camp Means Cobb Wojo Akins - Bailey Hess Rucker Stewart Blach Eshelman LeBlanc Rodgers Shepherd - means has innings at AAA but still has something to prove there. Starters in camp for the experience Kremer, Diplan, Lowther, Wells, Zimmerman Relievers that have a chance in camp Harvey Bleier Givens Castro Armstrong Carroll Fry Lakins Phillips Scott Sulser Cervenka Hanhold - Zastryzny Relievers in camp for the experience/have not proven themselves at AAA Tate, Kline, Alvarado Starters that don’t make the rotation still have a chance in the pen.
  14. I think Wilkerson may challenge Smith for a 26 man roster spot for OD.
  15. I think Smith is still on the roster because: 1) Stewart is injured and Mountcastle probably begins the season in the minors 2) He has an option left and can play the outfield at AAA when optioned. When Mountcastle is called up Smith is likely sent down if he is not DFA for roster space before that.
  16. I think Armstrong and Fry are still on the roster because they can strike out hitters. Both have a lot to prove to make the O's pitching staff this spring. Armstrong is out of options so he either makes the staff or is DFA'd before OD.
  17. This is my opinion of Where the O's are with the Rebuild. Mike Elias has been through a rebuild twice. Once with the Cardinals and once with the Astros. Here are the elements he says need to happen for the rebuild to be successful. 1. Build a top notch scouting staff, draft wisely in the amateur draft and high in the early years of the rebuild. Status: Elias personally has led the scouting staff and is building a staff. He drafted #1 in 2019 and will draft #2 in 2020. He is probably positioned to draft high in 2021. He appears on track with his plan. 2. Build a top notch Player Development staff. He has hired Matt Blood to work with Kent Qualls to run the minors. He added Chris Holt as Director of Pitching and this off season has promoted him to lead Pitching in the major and minor leagues. Status: In Elias first full season the pitching development in the minors is encouraging. Bowie, Delmarva, Aberdeen, and the GCLOrioles all led their leagues in ERA. Two of the O's minor league pitchers are in the Top 100 prospects by most ranking services - Rodriguez and DL Hall. Also the O's have a volume of pitchers that are doing well in the minors including Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, Akin as well as John Means and Hunter Harvey would have shown well in the majors. This shows very well for the O's ability to develop pitchers. 3. Build a top notch analytics department. This is being run by Sig Mejdal, one of the best in the majors. They have spent on the software and equipment to evaluate and improve players. The have now added managers and coaches to help the player use the analytics. They have expanded the coaching staff to 6 coaches per team. Status: It looks like it is helping the pitchers. Still don't know about he hitters. 4. Build a top notch International Scouting staff: Elias hired an experienced leader in Koby Perez. They are adding scouting staff and improving facilities. Perez says by 2021 they will be adding top notch international talent. Status: Some progress made but the O's are still in the beginning stages. What are the events that were/are to occur in the rebuild? 1A. Reduce payroll to not spent while the team in losing leaving space for the O's to increase payroll when the team is ready to win. Status: O's 2018 payroll 148m; Current payroll: 59M Status 85% achieved. 2A. Build staff that can draft, develop and help players with analytics. Status: IMO 70% achieved. 3A. Players drafted and traded for by Dan Duquette have given Elias the possibility of shortening the rebuild. Including Means, Mancini, Santander, Rodriguez, Hall, Mountcastle, Diaz, Hays, Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, Akins, and Harvey. Add Rutschman and the 2020 #1 draft choice gives the Elias possibility of a core in the majors in the next three years. 4A, Add players through trade and free agency to make the O's a contender. Status: Probably begins in the off season of 2021/22. 5A. Have the international players earn their way to the majors to supplement the team as the O's draft later in each round. Status: Yet to come. Summary: Where are the O's in the rebuild? Pretty far along in adding staff for scouting and player development and analytics. Still has to add and develop players over the next two years to add to the core. Probably will add through trades and free agency after the 2021 season to become a contenders which follows the Astros model.
  18. We don't know everything. We do know some things.
  19. Bottom line: In order to follow the plan to build through the draft Elias will need high draft choices in 2021. MLB Wins are not the focus in 2020. He will trade players at the deadline that are not part of the long term plan.
  20. I don't agree with either of these points. I don't think Elias wants to win this season. That is not how the plan works. He wants, no he needs, the O's to get a high draft choice in 2021. So much so that if Givens, Cobb, Bleier and any other player the he does not deem part of the long term solution is doing well in July they will be traded. No matter the effect on the O's major league wins. I don't have time to write where I think the O's are in the rebuild right now. But this afternoon I will try to state it in a few words.
  21. When the topic is "The Rebuild, Where Are We" that is a lot of words to conclude: "But grading them short term on the ability to have long term success is not something I can do today".
  22. What's behind the curtain is a old bald guy that is pretending to be something he is not. I fully agree that Trey's long term future should not be in the OF. Diaz has speed and a good arm. If he can hit his way to the majors he is the long term answer in right. A below average runner with a noodle arm in not the right skill set as far as I can tell. ST will provide more answers.
  23. Compared to the choices that O's have they will have to play their way out of the OF in my opinion. So they are, until their not. Hopefully that is in 10-15 years.
  24. Mountcastle needs to find a position he can play regularly in the majors. If that is 1B/DH with the way he hits then would be fine with that.
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