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DrungoHazewood last won the day on January 28

DrungoHazewood had the most liked content!

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About DrungoHazewood

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  • Birthday 6/19/1971

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    Nate, Sam, Baseball, Soccer, Virginia Tech sports, Hiking, Cooking, Photography, Mad treks to the far corners of the globe
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    Electronics Engineer/Program Manager
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Matthias Dietz
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Doug DeCinces

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  1. Positive trend: He's working out and getting stronger and building endurance. Negative trends: He's getting older and the time remaining on his team control is growing shorter by the day. I think the best case scenario is that he has a .900 OPS in early 2022 and they flip him for a decent prospect in June or July. But more likely he has an .800ish OPS, on a 1.5-2 WAR pace and returns some org's #7 or #10 prospect.
  2. I like Urias, I like taking a chance on a guy who's been playing in Mexico for a while and has interesting if also inflated numbers from the Mexican League. But... he's 27. He probably was playing over his head, or at least near his ceiling. His career US minor league OPS is .775. His 2.0 WAR includes a few runs of positive defensive value that's not reflected in the Statcast data. He hit .279 in the majors, while his AAA batting average overall is .261. Any time a player who was projected for minimal value was on pace for a 4+ WAR season you have to be a little skeptical of his abil
  3. One time someone had Roger Maris (and maybe Mantle?) take batting practice with a variety of weights of bat. There was very little difference in how far the balls were hit. It seems that the tradeoff between bat velocity/acceleration and bat mass just about evens out in the f=ma calculation.
  4. Imagine he'd been an average first baseman the whole year. He had a 112 OPS+. The median OPS+ for players who played at least 81 games at 1B or DH was 128. He was a below-average hitting player for his position, and he spent half the year playing a poor LF. [code] Rk Player OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos 1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 169 2021 22 TOR AL
  5. There are various books and other sources that seem fairly well documented showing ridiculously long home run distances from 75 or 100 years ago. Ruth supposedly hit any number of 500+ ft homers. Clearly if any of that is to be believed the balls (or some of them due to poor quality control) were far livelier than today. It's very clear that many of today's sluggers are every bit as strong and probably quite a bit stronger than the players of 50, 100+ years ago, with much better data on how to hit the ball a long way, off of pitchers mostly throwing much harder. And, yes, they often me
  6. If you play around with Alan Nathan's trajectory calculator (and can figure out how to do that intelligently) I think you'll see that to hit the warehouse you'd have to have an exit velocity of 125+ mph at 30 degrees launch angle with normalish atmospheric conditions (70 degrees, 50% humidity, no wind). Even if you make it hot and humid with a 15mph wind blowing out you'd still need a 120+ mph exit velocity. I think Giancarlo Stanton had one ball with a 120+ mph exit velocity this year. That was the only one in MLB. So, basically, you need ideal conditions and about as hard hit a ball
  7. Teams during the draft era that won less than 60 and didn't get the #1 pick: 1964 A's, 57 wins 1965 A's, 59 wins 1969 Expos, 52 wins 1972 Padres and Phils, 59 and 58 wins 1978 Blue Jays, 59 wins 1979 A's, 54 wins 1988 Braves, 54 wins 2002 Brewers/Tigers, 56 and 55 wins 2004 Royals, 58 wins 2019 Orioles, Marlins, Royals, 54, 57, 59 The 1939 Phillies went 45-106 and finished two games better than the Browns, obviously in the pre-draft era. The '32 White Sox were 49-102, but finished 7.5 games ahead of the Red Sox. The 1911 Browns were 45-107, but finished a half
  8. I don't think Adam had a particularly high peak or a particularly long career. He never had a five-win season, and he was done as a productive MLB player at 31. I doubt Hays has Jones' peak, and he's started much later. But it's not crazy to think he could still be a decent player into his mid-30s. He'll need to develop some more plate discipline as he ages, and maybe keep his speed longer than normal.
  9. His career OBP is .310. Last few years the league is .316-.325. So not quite like a .310 from 20 or 30 years ago when league was .330-.350.
  10. That's an interesting thing. I don't know why fewer batters are qualifying. I need to think this through.
  11. Severino will be non-tendered. Mancini is a nice story and a good guy and everyone roots for him. But he turns 30 in March and is a first baseman with a 115 OPS+. He's going to have to age very well to have a productive career going forward.
  12. You don't normally project someone to hit 120 points below their career marks. His three prior years were .780, .705 and .778. Then he coughs up a .609. Anthony Santander's last three are going to be .774, .890, and something like .720. Do you project him to .625 next year? Sometimes stuff just happens and no one saw it coming. Although they knew all along he's not a good third baseman.
  13. I wish I had a dollar for every post that infers exactly how our A-ball outfielders should be doing their pre-game routine, based on a vague statement from the GM about organizational philosophy. Elias: "We are following a model not too dissimilar from the Astros" Internet: "My God, do you know what that does to our 2025 mock draft 4th round?!? We have to change the entire projection!"
  14. This isn't going to be systematic, and we'll be eyeballing league changes but: Carl Yastrzemski struck out 14.7% as a rookie, then in his 30s had years in the 6-7% range. Frank Robinson had fairly similar K rates throughout his career. Eddie Murray's highest rate was as a rookie, but was up and down between 9-14%. Rick Dempsey's K rate went up as he aged. Russell Branyan started off K'ing 35%+ and later on got down just under 30%. Jack Cust was a regular from 2007-11 and started off around 33%, but did have a couple years right around 30%. According to Tom Tango's compo
  15. Now I'm curious if that actually happens. How many players strike out a ton when they're young and consistently improve as they go along? To do such a study you'd also have to adjust for league rates. Especially in the last 20-30 years. If you debuted in 2000 and played until 2020 you'd witness 34% rise in K rates, so someone with 100 K per 600 PA would be holding steady if they struck out 134 times in 2020.
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