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DrungoHazewood last won the day on July 5

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About DrungoHazewood

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  • Birthday 6/19/1971

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    Nate, Sam, Baseball, Soccer, Virginia Tech sports, Hiking, Cooking, Photography, Mad treks to the far corners of the globe
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    Matthias Dietz
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  1. That's one of my Ryan Mountcastle risk factors. Can you trust anyone's 2019 AAA numbers? Jace Peterson is still a guy who'll OPS .674 in the majors.
  2. In all of MLB history there have only been five seasons where a 1B/LF/DH with less than 30 walks and less than 10 steals had a 5+ WAR. And only 13 with four+ wins. Rk Player WAR/pos BB SB Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos 1 Felipe Alou 6.3 24 5 1966 31 ATL NL 154 706 666 122 218 32 6 31 74 6 51 12 2 2 11 7 .327 .361 .533 .894 *378/956 2 Joe Medwick 6.0 30 4 1935 23 STL NL 154 670 634 132 224 46 13 23 126 59 4 2 15 .353 .386 .576 .962 *7 3 George Burns 5.9 23 8 1918 25 PHA AL 130 545 505 61 178 22 9 6 70 25 8 8 .352 .390 .467 .857 *3/79 4 Garret Anderson 5.1 30 6 2002 30 ANA AL 158 678 638 93 195 56 3 29 123 11 80 0 0 10 11 4 .306 .332 .539 .871 *78D/H 5 Charlie Hickman 5.1 15 9 1902 26 TOT AL 130 564 534 74 193 36 13 11 110 15 7 8 .361 .387 .539 .926 *37/41 To be a 5 or 6 win player In today's offensive environment Mountcastle is going to have to OPS something like .950 (which will require hitting well over .300) unless he unexpectedly is a really good LFer.
  3. As long as it climbs faster than the innings expected from a starter falls. To get to 250 strikeouts in 170 innings a pitcher has to be around peak Randy Johnson strikeout rates. I think even MLB will make some changes if the average starter is getting 12 or 13 K/9.
  4. That's an interesting thought, but don't know if I've ever seen any evidence that points in that direction. I really don't know if it has any credence. The hardest part about getting 250 Ks today is pitching 200+ innings.
  5. Except in 1977 he was Reggie! Today that's called your #8 hitting second baseman.
  6. I think my two posts were consistent. Mountcastle was arguably the best prospect, the best non-organizational player, in the IL who spent 120 or 130 games there. There were any number of better players or better prospects who spent 30 or 50 or 75 games in the league but didn't get MVP votes because of their shorter tenure. Almost every other comparable or better prospect got called up part way through the year, either from AA to AAA or from AAA to the majors.
  7. Thanks for the article. I may be underselling Mountcastle because of a combination of park effects and age. It's easy to forget Norfolk is still a pitchers park when Chance Sisco and Jace Peterson can OPS over .900. Although I still have trouble seeing a 1B/LF/DH with a 5:1 AAA strikeout to walk ratio being an impact player in the majors. To be a big asset he's going to have to hit at least as well as Trey Mancini, who was just a 3.5-win player with a .900 OPS last year.
  8. The BABIP on flyballs is much lower than on line drives or grounders. I never understood the obsession with ground ball pitchers. They're usually not strikeout pitchers, and most of the best pitchers of all time are power pitchers who can work up in the zone and aren't obsessed with grounders. Clemens, Randy Johnson, Carlton, Koufax, Walter Johnson, Grove, Ryan... they all had a big fastball they'd blow by hitters at the letters. Also, ground ball pitchers usually have a higher rate of HR/FB, so they often don't allow fewer homers than flyball pitchers. And it's only been fairly recently that we've had the combination of everyone uppercutting a super-juiced ball, and almost everyone having a park that's 365 or 370 to an alley.
  9. You know as well as I do that he was MVP because he was arguably the best prospect in the league who had more than about half season's worth of PAs. Is there any question whatsoever that someone like Austin Riley would have been the MVP if he'd been left with Gwinnett for 125 games, instead of less than 200 PAs?
  10. You can't use normal qualification standards for a situation like this because a minor leaguer will usually be called up if he plays well. In the IL only 17 people met the 3.1 PA/G standard used in the majors. Only 21 players in the whole league appeared in 100+ games. Don't forget that there were eight players in the PCL aged 22 or younger who all OPS'd at least .902 in 158 or more PAs. And the 21 major leaguers who had 100+ plate appearances at 22 or younger. I'd say Hays led the O's in OPS last year if he'd been in a league where all you have to do is hit pretty well for a month or two to get called up somewhere higher. The best players/prospects in the IL or PCL are rarely going to qualify for the batting title.
  11. Isn't that backwards? If Mountcastle were one of the top prospects in baseball he would have many MLB at bats by 23 or 24. One of the reasons Elias could leave him in AAA all year last year is that he wasn't running roughshod over the league, yes he's pretty young but he's a 1B/LF/DH with the 40th-best OPS in the IL, 4th or 5th-best on the Tides.
  12. I have to love a pitcher who gets the physics.
  13. Just remember that English has no Académie Française. There is no official arbiter of what is right and what is wrong. My old English teachers are probably cursing me for saying this but there are no official objective standards in English and things evolve over time, although I try to follow the de facto rules as much as makes sense.
  14. I prefer interesting outfield dimensions based on constraints imposed on the architecture like the shape of the lot. It's pretty artificial when you have 11 weird angles in the outfield fence in a park that looks like a Zeppelin hangar stuck in the middle of 11,000 acres of parking. Oh, and so much for my idea of bigger parks to encourage contact. This one looks like another bandbox with short alleys. Every new park should be at least 350-390-430-390-350.
  15. We knew that sometimes prospects slump or get out of whack and need to try to reset things and fix what's wrong. Mullins isn't the prospect he was a year ago, but he might be salvageable. Remember when Cal hit .150 through his first 120-odd plate appearances in the majors?
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