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Everything posted by DrungoHazewood

  1. Maybe the international market as we know it doesn't work very well. Most of the 16-year-olds a team signs they give a bonus of three magic beans, and then they pay them $8000 a year. So you're not out that much. Perhaps there should be a better system than each team signing 100 16-year-olds, paying most of them a pittance, and then spending the next decade-plus sorting them out to find the 5, 6, 10 of them who will have any MLB value at all. The reason MLB contracted minor league teams is the realization that most minor leaguers have negative value to the higher organization.
  2. Why not? Seems strange to me that a 22-year-old college junior/senior might spend a year in the minors and be a free agent seven years after signing. But a 16-year-old might be tied to his original team for 10+ years. To me team control should be whatever team and player negotiate.
  3. The owners already proposed having free agency at 29 or something like that. I don't see how that would hurt college baseball. I agree that #2 is a much bigger change, and therefore much less likely. But how would it let big markets take over? There would be nothing stopping a team like the Orioles from signing Rutschman to a 10-year contract that would give them more years of control than they do today. You'd still have a draft, and teams controlling rights to their draftees. Just there's no limitations on what contract they can sign. I guess it's possible that some players would r
  4. In Win Shares there is no below replacement. Players get credit for all wins above zero. An average Oriole in 2021 gets 1/26th of (52 x 3) win shares, or about six per full season.
  5. Don't have service time have anything to do with free agency. Instead: 1. Have free agency occur at age 28 no matter how much or little you've played in the majors Or 2. Allow everyone, from the moment they're drafted, to negotiate whatever contract they can. Your #1 pick could negotiate for a 10/$50M deal lasting from ages 18-28. Your 11th rounder gets 3 years, $50k. The 22nd-rounder gets 1 year at $10k. When the 11th rounder has already made the majors at the end of the 3rd year he negotiates a new 5/$10M deal. In the first scenario you could call up your top prospec
  6. I should look up G/F data and other related information. But it's pretty astounding to finish last in both BB+H per inning and double plays turned. The Orioles allowed more runners on base than any other MLB team and they were still last in double plays.
  7. Stevie Wilkerson didn't reach his lofty heights by just listening to anyone. Also, remember, the Orioles broke new ground in this area by hiring Dave Trembley as the manager. He never played professional baseball. That experience had at least an occasional moment where it didn't look like a total dumpster fire.
  8. 26 coaches. I was completely making up 46, but I was within an order of magnitude. As it is there's almost a coach for each two players. I wonder how much of a problem it becomes to make sure all 26 are on message, and teaching the same things? If you fire the head coach, you have to go find 25 other coaches, too? If I were the GM I'd avoid firing the coach just because it would take forever to hold all those interviews. In my job it would take three years to hire 25 people.
  9. I don't know, it's not something I've really paid attention to. My casual observance of football is that they have 46 coaches for each team. Inside linebackers coach. Kick returner coach. Offensive line coach, defensive line coach, nickel back coach. Kicking coach. Punting coach. The guy who used to hold the wires for the headphones so they wouldn't get tangled up before they went wireless but now stares off into space thinking of Gal Gadot.
  10. I'm confused. Why is this "the type of stuff fans get frustrated about"? Who's frustrated by this? If you asked everyone in the Stadium the name of the home team's hitting coach, what percentage would get it right? 15%?
  11. Why does the league care if you have zero, one, two, or 11 hitting coaches? Is that the number allowed on the bench? Could you have more coaches but they can't be on the field during the game? Maybe an optimal situation would be for each player on the roster to have their own personal performance coach. Or we could just go back to the way it was done in 19-and-aught three and there were no coaches (or GMs for that matter), just your manager who sometimes was also a player.
  12. We're probably going pretty far afield here, but this is kind of my thing so I'll ramble for a minute... I don't think there's any value in starting to count from zero instead of replacement level (or .300 winning percentage). And there are some disadvantages, mainly that you can't really set a zero level, there is no zero level, there's always someone worse. Win shares picks a level it calls zero (in reality more like a .100 winning percentage), and then rounds off everyone under that to zero. So it's not even doing what it says it does. If you want to account for all team wins i
  13. I was going to respond, but before I did I thought maybe you wrote this post just to irk me. So, ha, I'm not writing anything.
  14. Shouldn't you get paid for the wins you deliver for your team, no matter how many games or innings you play? If a closer gave up no runs and only pitched in very high leverage situations why shouldn't he get paid for that?
  15. Except that Win Shares are broken in about five different fundamental ways. Modern pitchers get far too few Win Shares, Cy Young winners today get 18, 20, 25 win shares compared to 35+ for MVPs. Max Scherzer had 16 win shares in '21. So did Mike Yastrzemski, who hit .225 with a .768 OPS. David Fletcher, .262/.297/.324, had 17 WS. Anthony Rizzo, .248 with so-so fielding at first, 15 WS. DJ Le Mahieu had a OPS just over .700, 20 WS. The fielding is similarly compressed, with about a win a year separating Ozzie's glove from Jeter's. Since it's a quasi-zero based system (instead of rep
  16. Harvey has pitched 286 innings as a professional in nine years. 32 innings a season. The simplest explanation for why he was let go is that the Orioles don't believe he'll ever stay healthy long enough to be counted on to have an impact.
  17. There were 13 2021 rookie position players who had 2+ rWAR. That's tied for the 5th-highest of all time, noting that for much of history there were fewer teams than there are today. Mountcastle was 30th in rookie position player value across all of MLB. 2021 rookie pitchers were tied for 45th-place, with eight over 2 rWAR.
  18. Everyone needs to remember what Marcel is: the simplest possible system. It takes the last 3-4 years, weights them in order of newest to oldest, might throw in a pinch of aging, and that's pretty much it. Tango designed it to be as simple as possible, so that if you design a more complicated system and the average error is worse than Marcel your system ain't too swift. Marcel most certainly does not take into account that Mullins stopped switch hitting or anything else like that.
  19. Yes, when they became free agents they found themselves outcasts and had to settle on playing for the Orioles.
  20. Constant pitching changes might contribute five or 10 minutes to an average game. Maybe 15 at the outside. But when this year's Series sees two nine-inning games come in at over 4:00 that's not the driver. The driver is pacing and probably commercials. The longest game in the 1970 Series was 2:35. This year in Game 1 2:35 probably happened in the 4th inning. I actually watched some of the Series this year, but I never made it to the 7th. No way I'm staying up to midnight for two teams I really couldn't care less about.
  21. Pitching changes contribute to the length of games somewhat. But it's pacing more than anything else. Nobody enforces pitch clocks or the existing rules on how often a pitch has to be thrown. There are vastly more exceptions than enforcements. Watch a game from the 1970s on YouTube. Almost nobody steps out, the pitcher just gets ready to pitch and goes. I watched an Orioles World Series game from I think 1970 where Brooks stayed in the batter's box with his cleats in the same holes for an entire mound visit. Today he'd go next door to Arby's and get a sandwich. Commercials also con
  22. They'll be coming to the majors soon. And the vast majority thinks that's going to be them, so if they cross the picket lines they'll be pariahs when they make it.
  23. He could be like Mark Quinn, who became a coach and made some statements about using his career as a cautionary tale more than an example.
  24. I'd really like to hear the opinions of fans from 100 or 75 or even 50 years ago about the gnat-sized attention span of modern fans, and today's 3+ hour regular season and often four hour postseason games. In 1920 an average game was about two hours, in 1950 about 2:20 and when I was a kid in the late 70s and early 80s just over 2:30. In the Orioles' dynasty years they'd often play doubleheaders in 4-5 hours, In June of this year they had a nine-inning game against Houston that went 4:19. I don't know about you, but when I have to get up to work at 5:45 I'm just not staying up until mid
  25. Nice statement regarding Mancini, not sure how that has anything whatsoever to do with his ability or desire to be a hitting coach.
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