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Everything posted by DrungoHazewood

  1. Maybe you shouldn't. If you can't get any joy out of even the young players with some promise perhaps it's time to move on to something else.
  2. I was just perusing the old Fangraphs, looking to see if anyone had thrown a knuckleball in 2020. Last year there were a handful of guys who threw a few flutterballs, but I knew Steven Wright was out with an injury. According to the pitch type listings the only people who've thrown the pitch this year are position players: Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and Holaday. But it's so few pitches, and players who don't normally pitch, I don't know if it wasn't just a mis-categorization of a batting practice curveball or something. Does anyone remember Holaday's stint on the mound on August 14th? I certainly wasn't watching the end of a 15-3 blowout loss. The only clue in the game thread was @SteveA commenting that "Holaday bringing it at 73 MPH". If we could get confirmation that he threw a knuckler, that might be the first one by an Oriole pitcher since Dan Boone in 1990, although Fangraphs says Ryan Flaherty may have also thrown a few knucklers in a pitching appearance in '16. But again we'd need confirmation that it wasn't just a 71 mph junkball that the trackers didn't know what to do with.
  3. He has some surplus value, sure. But I'm not sure anyone really buys into the idea he's a 2.5-win player. He's not durable, and he's at an age where his defense could very well decline. And teams have to expect the O's want a premium because he just hit .370 in a 1/4 of a season. Who in the Orioles system would you give up to acquire a player like Iglesias for a year? Diaz? That's pretty steep. I'd have a hard time parting with any of my top 10 prospects. If you can't get that level, you might as well keep him.
  4. Maybe. It's a little bit of the old "we know he's not a .373 hitter, but do all the other GMs know that?" ploy. Even if you believe that his last three years (308 games) is his new established level that makes him about a 2.5 win player. How much could you expect in return for one year of a 31-year-old, 2.5-win player making $3.5M? Who, oh by the way, missed 20 games this year and has only once played as many as 140. Like all hypothetical trades I'll be skeptical until I see it happen. I think they keep him for at least the first half of '21.
  5. Yes. The IT department. The cleaning people. Rent. Facility maintenance. The analytics department. If the Orioles employ 300 people (besides players) at an average loaded salary of 100k that's $30M. From a recent post on Bill James' site, with the question being something like "what looks different from the inside of a MLB organization since you worked for the Red Sox":
  6. I would like to know how Forbes comes up with that number. I don't think there are any publicly available sources for that, so they either have to have inside sources with each team or the league, or they're guessing.
  7. I like the idea of Alberto as a 100% starter against lefties, and the utility guy/backup infielder against righties. I'm a big advocate of the Szymborski rule, which is "that if you can’t add good players, add interesting ones" and Alberto is perhaps the weirdest player in MLB. It would be a shame to replace him with another guy who's desperately trying to hit .233 with 17 homers and 133 strikeouts.
  8. Setting aside Davis and Cobb, who are only Orioles because their contracts are untradeable, either Mancini or Alberto might be the most expensive 2021 Orioles. They can afford Alberto, unless they've decided that almost every penny above the minimum is unacceptable.
  9. No, of course not. Their middle names were all Aloyisusetta.
  10. At high school graduation I was surprised to note that seemingly 1/10th of my class had the middle name Aloysius. Maybe a local SoMd thing? A Catholic thing? I don't know, but it was a lot. On strangely spelled names, I'm just confused by the many, many people who use alternate spellings for seemingly normal(ish) names. It's unclear if the parents just spelled it incorrectly, or prioritized uniqueness over their child having to deal with being named Jayzz'myine instead of Jasmine. The next chicken I get for the backyard coop will be named something Icelandic, but also involving semi-colons.
  11. There's no elephant here. It's almost guaranteed that Mancini's agent will work out something fairly reasonable with the team, and the team won't even think about non-tending him. 40 man is a non-issue, if you need a spot just cut one of the 17 random relief pitchers.
  12. I think you underestimate the number of children today named Ql'zon'da, pronounced "Jasmine". In 2020 Jorja is unremarkable.
  13. It's always nice to have a detailed, nuanced, evidence-based look at a player to enlighten and broaden the discussion.
  14. 2020 draft order "highly likely" to be "heavily influenced" by high-revenue teams who played poorly like the Nats and Red Sox. Remember the original justification for the draft was competitive balance. So let's give top five picks to the reigning Champions and a team with $500M in annual revenues and four titles in the last 16 years based on 1/3rd of a season.
  15. Scott has pitched fewer innings this season than the single game record.
  16. I think it's gotta be the McCovey precedent. The kid who's clearly as good or better than everyone else who just didn't get a full season to show it. Plus I love the absurdity of an O's MVP who is still eligible for the Rookie of the Year next year.
  17. There is never a shortage of players who can hit a little bit and can't field. You can always find a 1B/DH with a 110 OPS+. As long as Nunez is cheap and isn't actively taking playing time from someone better he'll stick, but that might not last until even next season.
  18. I didn't said he was likely to remain an Oriole. I just said that it's not uncommon to have a player like Nunez on a good team.
  19. Nunez is a DH with a 110 OPS+, or about that. Kendrys Morales has spent 13 years in the majors as a DH with a 111 OPS+ and has played in four postseasons. Mark Trumbo was basically a DH with a 1000-game career and a 108 OPS+. Played on some good teams. Billy Butler won a World Series as a DH with a 96 OPS+, 116 for his career. From 2013-18 Victor Martinez was a DH with a 112 OPS+, played in a couple postseasons. Evan Gattis, DH with a 111 OPS+, played in four postseasons. Teams may not want their DH to have a 110 OPS+, but in reality that's about average for one.
  20. A system like Zips takes available data, mostly recent MLB performance, and in some cases minor league performance, and adds in aging of some sort. In most cases aging effects aren't dramatic, a player at 27 might be 10% or 15% more productive than they were at 23 or 24. Individual components like homers or stolen bases will contribute to that, but will also not dramatically change year-to-year. In real life we see the impacts of injury, playing time, changes in environment (parks, balls), along with random variation. If you wanted Zips to look more like real life you could add +/- 15% random numbers to each component projection. They'd look more realistic, but probably be less accurate. Another thing that most projection systems do is apply a playing time reduction to account for injury. But it can't be distributed correctly since most injuries are random. So you end up with everyone getting 25 games off from injury, when in reality some players miss zero games and some miss 140, with a median of 25.
  21. The idea that the Orioles had one of the better offenses in the league was always kind of fanciful. About a month ago they had six or seven regulars or semi-regulars out-hitting their career marks by 200 points of OPS. It was a lock that most of those were going to regress hard.
  22. The average major leaguer in 2020 hits .244. There are eight teams hitting under .230, and the Reds are hitting .213. In essence all the Reds are Rob Deer. At .255 the Orioles are the Rod Carew of the AL. I hope Mountcastle out-hits the .260s they're projecting, but that's already 20 points or more above average. My problem with the projections is that everyone seems to have a K:BB ratio of like 140:30. It's hard to score runs when your team OBP is .295.
  23. I kind of like the concept in other languages of formal and informal pronouns. I know a little German and it's sie or du for the English "you". You never call anyone but close acquaintances du. We don't have that, but it's a little like how I see my family names. Nate and Sam for around the house, yelling on the soccer field, for their buddies. Nathaniel and Samuel for passports and school paperwork and when they've done something quite good or bad. For whatever reason 98% of the world has always called me Jon. There are probably more people here who know me as Drungo than regularly call me Jonathan. But Jonathan is on my email at work, obviously on paperwork, passports, bills and the like. Actually, I even sign work emails Jon, but below a line I put full name, title, organization, etc. It's a duality.
  24. Lopez has an ERA and a FIP in 226 MLB innings over 5.00. He's 27. He's safe until the O's acquire a legit Grade C prospect and need to add him to the roster.
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