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Everything posted by RZNJ

  1. I heard Atomic saw his shadow and is in for a long winter.
  2. I was wondering the same thing. I was under the impression he was an average runner or above average.
  3. RZNJ

    Brenan Hanifee 2019

    He's listed as 6'5 215 on milb.com
  4. Davis Tavarez - A 6'2 190 lbs. Dominican who has been in the system since 2017. He had a decent debut in the DSL at age 18 but hasn't done a thing since. He put up a .445 OPS in the GCL in 2018. He wasn't doing much last year and and then, in August, something happened. He went 18 for his last 41 AB's with 4 doubles and a homer. He OPS'd 1.087 in August to bring his season OPS up to .875. He walked 11 and struck out 16 in 87 AB's. He stole 6 bases out of 7 attempts. I have him going up to Aberdeen as a 21 year old this year but he's another one who might make the big jump to Delmarva. The problem is there is probably a glut of outfielders in front of him. Maybe nothing to see here. Maybe there is?
  5. Historically the odds are against it from a statistical perspective based on the round. It would be unusual in that context. "Bordering on the impossible" is just hyperbole. However, we aren't talking about the basis of how many players have made made the jump before. I found HS players from round 3-6 that have made the jump since the 2016 draft and one of them was a SS. There are very few HS position players selected in those rounds and very few infielders so the pool of players in that position is low to begin with. In the end we are talking about the ability of the player. You say Henderson has a better chance based on his draft status. Yes, historically a 1st or 2nd round HS pick is going to have a higher probability of making the jump. No one is arguing that point. You yourself said that the judgement should be made on an individual basis. Do you think the judgement should be made on Hernaiz's draft position and the history of drafted players from round 5 making the jump or on whether he is ready for full season ball? Hernaiz had an arguably better debut than Henderson. Obviously, there is a lot more to consider than their stats from 2019 but I think the organization will look at whether Hernaiz and/or Henderson are ready from a talent and maturity perspective moreso than what the history book tells them where a 5th round HS pick usually starts.
  6. Not trying to pick a fight. But if it's on an individual basis then draft pedigree and the round picked should not have anything to do with the decision. I will try to find some later round picks that started in full season ball. Obviously, there are going to more examples of guys from higher rounds but again, that should not be the driving factor. Hernaiz MAY have a more advanced approach and MIGHT be more ready than Henderson.
  7. Ubaldo had some pretty good years in Colorado.
  8. Pitchers and hitters are apples and oranges but let's not forget that 4th rounder Drew Rom was a HS draftee who the Elias regime believed was ready for full season ball last year so I think it is less about some kind of preconceived structure of advancement and more about what level they truly believe Hernaiz and Henderson belong at this spring. I don't think they are going to hold them back if they think they're ready for Delmarva.
  9. RZNJ

    Adam Stauffer

    There have been many changes but the most drastic has been in player development. I can’t get into details but they just make it so much simpler. You get to see how all of your pitches play and then focus on how to make them better. There’s no more guesswork.
  10. I am going to chip in with a few eye openers of my own. 1. Jaylen Ferguson - Nathan Showalter gets credit as the scout who signed him back in 2015 as a raw 17 year old HS kid. He hadn't really done a thing until last year when he hit 6 homers in only 19 games at Aberdeen and then put up a respectable .782 OPS in 24 games with Delmarva. The 6 homers in 19 games at Aberdeen suggest some power. The 14 stolen bases in 42 games suggest some speed. I expect him to return to Delmarva and perhaps become something more than a obscure long ago draft failure. 2. Shayne Fontana - Fontana is also 22 and turns 23 in June. He was drafted in the 23rd round last year. He was in under his head in the GCL so he was promoted to Aberdeen and then to Delmarva where he held his own. He's got some speed with 15 stolen bases in 51 games, and a little bit of pop, with 8 doubles, 5 triples, and 2 homers. He played all 3 outfield spots so he's supposedly no slug in the outfield either. I also expect him back at Delmarva but who knows. 3. Zach Watson - Admittedly a pretty high draft pick and also 22 turning 23 this summer. Watson showed some very good pop and actually did a little better at Delmarva than at Aberdeen. He is supposedly very fast although he only stole 5 of 6 in 36 games. Aberdeen and Delmarva are not home run parks but Watson was able to hit 9 doubles and 5 homers in those 36 games. Another guy with some power and some speed who can play the outfield some. Even though the average was only .217, his other numbers were good and with 6 walks and 13 strikeouts at Delmarva, I don't think a promotion to Frederick is out of the question. 4. Adam Stauffer - Again, he opened a few eyes last year but this could be the year he becomes an actual prospect. The 6'7" RHP just turned 21 and after being very good at Aberdeen, he didn't really miss a beat at Delmarva although he walked a few too many. Overall he walked 28 and struck out 70 in 59 IP. He has been brought along very slowly but they might take off the kid gloves and let him begin the year in Delmarva's rotation or they could piggy back him to keep the innings down as 59 was his career high to date.
  11. Some players played with both teams. I know James Rolle had a few AB's with one and then played with the other.
  12. Agreed. Here is who I consider the favorites. 1. Means 2. Cobb 3. Wojo 4. Leblanc 5. Hess 6. Bailey Everyone else
  13. I would think that having a better understanding of your strengths and weaknesses benefits you overall, so the answer is that it makes you better whichever level you're at.
  14. DSL players who perform well are likely to go to the GCL so even even Placencia stays after extended spring and makes the GCL team it's unlikely you'd see him until 2021 at Delmarva and that's probably a best case scenario, assuming he does well in the GCL. Very few players go straight from the DSL to a full season team or even make one anytime during the next season. I certainly don't know the stats but that's what I believe.
  15. Kudos for talking about some really obscure guys in the very low minors. Lucero is the only name I didn't recognize. Seems to me that Chavez might be the only one, and perhaps Angomas, to emerge as a legitimate prospect. Of course, I know nothing of Lucero without looking it up.
  16. Designing a system for picking up catchers signs is a lot different than coming up with using a monitor and electronic system to cheat. This part could have simply been to help a baserunner on 2B decide the catchers signs. The smoking gun is who suggested using the monitor to do it. Or, even if they used a monitor to decode the signs, that information could have only been used to inform the players how to pick up the signs when they were on 2B.
  17. The last sentence from makes me wonder if Keith Law is missing something. He's basically saying that his mechanics are not maximizing his potential but he throws real hard for real long. Like "I don't know how he does it".
  18. I once saw Jim Fuller hit a laser beam homer to LCF against the Yankees at Shea stadium (that's right). That dude was strong. He was a true minor league slugger at the time. Royle Stillman? I had forgotten that name but how about Mike Reinbach who used a bat with a hallowed out end?
  19. No and I was going to insert that punchline but did not. You are welcome for the setup. Now Frobby can tell us how many back to back save opportunities the Orioles had in 2019.
  20. What do I expect. Not a full season. As far as command. We are talking about a 23? year old with the experience of a 20 year old. I don't expect him to be THE closer because I still think they are going to be cautious with his usage, particularly on back to back appearances.
  21. I am surprised Eshelman is still around. He looked so bad last year in terms of stuff that I don't really think he has a chance and he's not there for experience either. So, I don't get it. I think Kline and Tate are extreme longshots but I don't think they are there for experience. If either one is lights out this spring, they have a chance.
  22. All this time I accepted Corn's scenario that Mullins was so bad he was replaced by Wilkerson. That should be revised to he was so bad he was replaced by Rickard. Thank you.
  23. He might which is why he should resign with the Orioles. The difference between Wilkerson and 50 other guys in AAA is opportunity. He has a better chance of getting another with the Orioles just based on the fact that they know him and he has ML experience with them. Also, I don't see Smith as a reserve outfielder but I guess it's possible. I think he either starts in LF, is the LH side of a platoon, or gets traded/released.
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