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Everything posted by RZNJ

  1. Depends on how much developing it still needed in the minors. I think a team that is conscious of overall team budget doesn't want to use service time on guys that are not ready for the ML level. Yes, you can make the argument that the ultimate learning experience is at the ML level but I think this current regime believes in having players as fully baked as possible before bringing them up. Case in point in Mountcastle. He had a very good year last year but they want him to work on his plate discipline and defense. I don't think he's being held back to delay his free agent status 6 years from now. He's being delayed because they feel his chances of succeeding at the ML level will be better later rather than sooner if he can fine tune a few things. I don't really believe that an all bat player like Mountcastle whose offensive profile doesn't shout "superstar" is being held back for service time issues. It is a byproduct of having him as ready as possible when he eventually gets called up.
  2. Mountcastle not being up has very little if anything to do with service time. They just don't think he's all that great and before they give him a chance they want to see what happens with Stewart, Nunez, Rios, etc.
  3. So, for the umteenth time, either Elias isn't so smart or maybe the Orioles actually like Kjerstad as much or more. If Martin was higher on their board than Kjerstad and they clearly felt he was the better prospect then I disagree with what they did which leads me to the belief that the Orioles simply didn't evaluate Martin as highly as others have.
  4. Testing doesn't catch 95% of the players. Cruz was tied into Biogenesis. He never failed a test. Good guy but his career is very suspicious. Anyway, I'm sure I didn't expect him to be great into his late 30's but I should have suspected it.
  5. I know Gonzalez hit in the Cape but those New Mexico State power numbers are useless.
  6. No. They are definitely better. They couldn't possibly be worse and it's clear they aren't as bad.
  7. Never realised Bobby Grich had gotten a callup as early as 1970. I don't think he was really called up for good until 72 or 73.
  8. Yes, he played the overslot game. Without question. That does not mean that, in his mind, he passed on a vastly superior prospect to take a significantly more inferior prospect in order to do it. You believe he has.
  9. If Elias shared the opinion that Martin was a likely perennial .300 hitter, high OBP, 20 homer guy, the only way he passes on him is if he thinks Kjerstad is a likely 3-5 hitter on a contending team. What you, Roll Tide, keep ignoring is this. What is likely is that on the Orioles board there is very little seperation between about 5 players, which likely included Martin, Veen, Lacy, Kjerstad, and a other. They said they were considering from a list of 5 players. Just as Fangraphs, BA, and other publications had significant differences on some players, the Orioles had there own rankings with opinios from different scouts, crosscheckers, analysts, Ciolek, and Elias. Some MAY have had Kjerstad higher. Elias MAY have thought internally that he liked Kjerstad better or very close in value to Martin. He may have felt this way about one or two others. He may have gotten a feel for what each would accept as the #2 pick. At this point he may have concluded he could get a player he liked more, as much, or very, very close to Martin AND get him for 2M less and use that money later in the draft. What you refuse go get through your head is the fact that media consensus had Martin 1-2 and Kjerstad 8-12 with Martin as clearly better. It would be logical to conclude that Elias saw the difference between the two a lot differently than media consensus. Get over it and lets see what happens.
  10. Let's also remember that it looked like Verlander was slipping and Cole had never proven to be a #1 starter before the Astros got them.
  11. I'm no math wizard but 17-23 is 40 games! I'm guessing the worst stretch was 17-43?
  12. Frobby's post said it all. It's been a waste of time for other's to debate with you so what's to add? All that's left is a little snark and slight. Elias obviously felt there wasn't a significant difference in player value between Austin and Heston. For all we know, Kjerstad was higher on the Orioles board. The pre draft buzz was that their were 3 players at the top and then a significant drop. The Orioles obviously didn't see it that way or they would have taken one of them. The smart play is to take the BPA especially when the dropoff to the next player, or next few players, is significant. I don't think Elias is stupid. You can disagree with his evaluation but I'll go with his call for now. If he felt Martin or Lacy were significantly better players than Kjerstad I don't believe he passes just so he can take the two HS players later. So, be reasonable and try to understand Elias' reasoning. Instead, you refuse and just keep beating the drum that Elias purposely took the far inferior player to save money for two high risk/high reward HS players later on.
  13. You are offering a perfectly reasonable take to an unreasonable person who has his heals dug in.
  14. Even a broken clock is right twice a day but it seems like time is standing still for you.
  15. Thanks for posting these. I used to wait for the newspaper on Sunday morning so I could look at the boxscores from the previous day but it was the only day where they posted the batting and pitching statistics for both leagues. During the week it was only for the top ten in each leaugue but on Sunday could see virtually every player. I had to get to the paper early, otherwise my father had first dibs and I had to wait until he was done with the sports section.
  16. I would definitely have Kjerstad no higher than 4th at this point. You could then argue between Kjerstad, Hays, and Mountcastle over who goes where in the next 3 spots.
  17. I must have been an Oriole fan by 1968 because I remember that in the sports page and indentifying as an Oriole fan.
  18. That's funny because IIRC, the arm action on Bryce Jarvis' video is a lot like Baumler or vice versa. I think.
  19. Isn't everyone? Seems to be pretty universal around here. 😆
  20. Gunnar had a chance to stay at SS with a likelihood of 3B. This kid has a chance to stay at 3B with a likelihood of corner OF-1B. Seems like this kid has more raw power at this stage.
  21. Don't think Elias cares much about how the consensus guys he basically went against are judging his draft. Haha. Enough said.
  22. Frontline pitching is the toughest thing to draft. Name the teams with 3/5 of a top homegrown rotation. Name the teams with the best rotations in baseball. How many are homegrown? The old Oakland A's did it with Mulder, Hudson, and Zito. Like a perfect storm. It doesn't happen very often. Or maybe it does and someone will point it out to me. The O's had Palmer, Flanagan, McGregor, and Boddicker. That was pretty impressive but Palmer was going out as Boddicker was coming in.
  23. Agreed. I think he had a Plan A, Plan B and so forth. Maybe if he gets his guy at #30 he doesn't get either Mayo or Baumler. Who knows. It seems as though Plan A did not come together perfectly.
  24. RZNJ

    Grade the Draft

    Good show. I liked Ethel and Fred.
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