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Chavez Ravine

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Chavez Ravine last won the day on October 15 2017

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About Chavez Ravine

  • Rank
    Plus Member since 11/03
  • Birthday 7/19/1970

Personal Information

  • Location
    Corvallis, OR
  • Homepage
  • Interests
    running, gardening
  • Occupation
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Adam Jones
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Tippy Martinez

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  1. Jon Miller's son and fiancee have COVID-19. Jon and his wife Janine are awaiting test results, but so far aren't showing any symptoms. https://www.knbr.com/2020/03/25/giants-broadcaster-jon-miller-tested-for-coronavirus-after-family-test-positive/
  2. From a public health management perspective the uncertainty over the mortality rate (and other things about the disease) is almost as bad as a high mortality rate itself. It's going to take a while (and a whole lot more testing and epidemiological surveillance) before we get a good number and more specifically know who exactly is at most risk. Until then, everyone is using the big heavy tools in the toolbox....like not charging quarantined cruise ship passengers for incidental charges! The world has turned upside down.
  3. The spread is one thing. It’s “gone viral” as the kids say, and nothing is stopping it now. But the mortality rate is another. If it’s like MERS or similar (like you have a 25% chance of dying if you get it) that’s society changing. If it’s more like the flu, or only old folks are screwed, that’s more like everyone calms down in a few weeks. Old folks can’t go on cruises anymore and hedge funds start buying pharmaceuticals and medical stocks instead of T-bills again. Theory (and some scanty empirical evidence) suggests it is evolving to be less virulent. We will see.
  4. MLB hitters judge stuff way harder than that using just just their eyes over the span of a couple seconds (well, the Astros might have had some help). The “eye test” is often pretty good.it often sucks. After a few more months of data we can quantitatively decide the degree to which 2020 Davis did or did not match the mean assemble projections. In March, with a guy we are already paying, I think Weams’ eye is as good as anything.
  5. Henry has a history of playing the pants card: https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-xpm-2013-04-29-bs-sp-orioles-henry-urrutia-0430-20130429-story.html
  6. Adam Jones is learning new words (well, a word at least):
  7. I’m also in the Hunter is better on the radio camp. He seems to provide less arcane non-sequitur stats and more useful observations/critiques for whatever reason. Joe Angel didn’t seem to like him (or at least didn’t click with him in the booth). That was entertaining in its own right.
  8. You can’t buy them in stores, but if you call now they’ll throw in a second pair and a tactical flashlight for free (just pay shipping and handling).
  9. Money in the top end pitching jar/hedge fund plus something youthful and useful back in return.
  10. If they did that the Astros would just tank for two years. Their fans know the drill.
  11. I think there was some initial uncertainty about who owned it (Kobe or the company), but it seems like the company owned it, from a few days ago: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-01-30/kobe-bryant-helicopter-owner-suspends-operations
  12. The NTSB is absolutely correct. All commercial helicopters should be equipped with what is now basic safety kit. However, in this particular instance I don't think TAWS would have helped avert the tragedy. The evidence so far seems to suggest that spatial disorientation was the devil. I have a morbid fascination with accident investigations, air safety videos, and NTSB final reports.This tragedy seems sadly to be an all too classic tale. An instrument rated pilot used to flying in the usually clear air of SOCAL encounters sketchy weather. He thinks he can thread the needle. Then all of a sudden he hits the fog and realizes he made a mistake. He knows exactly where he is in relation to the looming terrain, so he aborts and starts to gain altitude and turn around to the clearer skies and lower ground behind him. But his instrument flying skills are rusty since he never uses them in the normally ideal to fly in SOCAL. Plus he his probably stressed and flummoxed by the fact that he allowed himself to get so far in to a screwed up situation in the first place. Whatever the case, somewhere in the milky fog, during what should have been a relatively straightforward escape, he got completely disoriented and nose planted into the ground. It's one of the top ways people screw up flying aircraft. Lord knows I have made even worse bad decisions, but have been way luckier.
  13. He does know how to get the most out of aging cheaters and a-holes.
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