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rlc

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Everything posted by rlc

  1. Well I'm sure the Southern Illinois University alumni association is pretty upset about the list. Sure, SIU's not the Ivy League - but high school?
  2. Right, Sydney is 14 hours ahead of Baltimore. Did I misunderstand your earlier comment? Hank asked "if a game is played in Sydney and televised in Baltimore, what time would it be on" and you said: which would only be true if the game were played in Baltimore and televised in Sydney. If it were played in Sydney (at 7 PM Monday) and televised in Baltimore, the broadcast would be at 5 AM Monday. Just to confuse things, the name of the time zone in Sydney is Eastern Standard Time...
  3. Nope, you're counting in the wrong direction. That 7 PM Monday evening game in Sydney would start at 5 o'clock Monday morning in Baltimore.
  4. rlc

    Machado speaks

    First Inning has them (but the Ks are not broken down by swinging and looking).
  5. Why is Jesse Beal (7/12/90) now on Aberdeen's roster? Oh, wait - I forgot: Ask not for whom the Beal toils...
  6. rlc

    Wynn Pelzer

    [b]Just Wynn, Baby Spoone!!![/b]Lev Age K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GO/AO Age K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GO/AOR+ 19 9.9 4.7 1.1 2.62A 22 7.6 2.4 0.7 1.76 20 6.3 5.6 0.3 1.66A+ 23 8.8 3.5 0.4 2.00 21 7.9 4.0 0.5 2.67AA 24 7.9 5.3 0.9 1.25 24 5.9 5.1 0.9 1.70
  7. Okeydokey. Um, the Midwest League is Low A. High A is the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. Er, compared to what? Minor League Splits says that if Lawrie had played at Delmarva, his OPS would have been 10 points lower. Uh, it took him 30 attempts! c.f. Hoes's 20 for 25 at Delmarva. Yep, he's a better prospect than Hoes - but if LJ keeps hitting the way he has for the past couple of weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 80-100 range.
  8. Bergesen's career GB% in the minors is 52.6%. I think that even you must concede that no one, not even a highly touted Oriole prospect, can have a GB% of over 100%. Britton's career GB% is 63.5%, and that number is actually deceptively low - his 36 innings back at Bluefield pull his career number below what it's been in every season since. He gets significantly more grounders than Bergesen.
  9. This is the first time I've heard anyone say that Michael Ohlman can't hit, catch or throw. The part about hitting seems pretty absurd, given that Ohlman debuted in the Sally League as a 19 year old with a grand total of 4 games of professional experience. By the way, Ohlman hasn't played in a week - anyone know what's up with that?
  10. L.J. had a nice opening weekend in Aberdeen. He's the youngest position player on the Ironbirds, and he's hitting like a guy who belongs two levels higher. Looks like he's on schedule to return to Frederick after the break.
  11. Melewski reports that Hoes is expected to be Aberdeen's opening day secondbaseman. He also reports that Tyler Townsend may not have joined the Witness Protection Program after all.
  12. Mummey hit a home run yesterday in his last college game. That matched the combined total of Angle's and Hudson's NCAA careers. Player Games HRHudson 141 1Angle 170 0Mummey 126 36 Get a grip, guys.
  13. I was sitting behind the scouts with the mentality gun, and Hobgood sat at boxer most of the game, occasionally touching bull terrier. He only muscled up to bulldog once in the game. Matzek sits at bulldog and touches bull mastiff. Also, he's paper trained and has all his shots.
  14. You may be right, which would be a disappointment (it wouldn't be disappointing that you're right, but rather that Nick didn't make a true leap forward) but these numbers: Year O-Swing Z-Swing Zone2006 23.8% 65.9% 52.6%2007 23.4% 64.1% 52.3%2008 18.0% 64.2% 50.1%2009 23.0% 60.9% 48.8% say that pitchers threw Nick fewer pitches in the strike zone last year than they did in '08. You can't blame Kevin Millar for that - well, you can, but it wouldn't make much sense. It looks like pitchers got more careful with Markakis last year, and he reacted by swinging at more bad pitches, which no doubt led to the pitchers throwing even fewer strikes... The puzzling thing about the numbers, though, is why Nick swung at fewer good pitches than ever last year. If that means that he's being more selective within the strike zone and laying off pitches he can't do much with, it would be good news. On the other hand, if it means he's guessing more often and thus being completely fooled by more pitches, there's less reason to celebrate.
  15. I hadn't considered the impact of all those lefties on Markakis's production, and it is certainly significant. However, it is clearly only one of the causes of his down year. For instance when you say: we are forced to draw your attention to his OBP: vs RHP2006 .3562007 .3622008 .4182009 .376 He had a big regression against righties as well. We were all hoping that '08 was a sign that Nick was breaking out to a new level of performance, that he was becoming the kind of star around whom you can build a championship team. His performance in '09 raises the fear that he's just a nice player who had a fluke excellent year. I'll continue to harp on his regression in plate discipline as a major cause of his drop off from '08 to '09, and I fear this is extremely relevant to the lineup question. Yes, it would be stupid for the team to convince its best hitter that he needs to swing at more bad pitches because he needs to be a run producer when he bats third or fourth, yet I have a strong suspicion that's the mind set he's taking up to the plate - I wish FanGraphs had double splits, so I could compare his swing percentages for the different lineup slots. Now, even if he is making different choices about which pitches to swing at based on his spot in the order, it's not necessarily Crowley or Trembley's fault - Nick might have been making the decision based on his own image of what a #3 hitter looks like. Whatever the cause, I hope he goes back to taking the bad pitches from now on...
  16. Bzzzt! Thanks for playing, and enjoy the home version of Slippery Slopes! At age 24, Johnny O led the AL with a .473 OBP; he also led the league in batting average and doubles.
  17. Yes, it certainly appears that BA is determining which players it considers the best prospects based on their full season's performance (and scouting reports) and then going back and rating them as the top prospects in whatever leagues they played in. Look at how many guys are appearing in the top 20 in multiple leagues - Kelly, Freeman, Heyward, Alvarez, Stanton, Montero, Davis, Drabek... Some of these guys are no brainers, of course, but it stretches credulity to think that, say, Casey Kelly showed enough in 8 starts in the Carolina League for observers who knew nothing else about him to rate him the sixth best prospect in the league. Which is probably not a bad thing - they shouldn't wilfully discard pertinent information when they're trying to determine who has the best shot of making it to the big leagues. So, yes, their performance in Norfolk must have raised or reinforced doubts about Snyder and Arrieta.
  18. Not a whole lot to argue with on the positional side: Name Age DOB Pos G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS EqAHeyward 19 8/09/89 OF 49 214 189 34 56 12 0 10 31 4 0 21 30 .296 .369 .519 .888 .314Alvarez 22 2/06/87 3B 66 284 243 38 60 14 1 14 55 1 1 37 70 .247 .342 .486 .827 .289Freeman 19 9/12/89 1B 70 297 255 43 77 19 0 6 34 1 4 26 41 .302 .394 .447 .841 .302Chisenhall 20 10/04/88 3B 99 432 388 59 107 26 2 18 79 2 1 37 80 .276 .346 .492 .838 .295Moustakas 20 9/11/88 3B 129 530 492 66 123 32 2 16 86 10 6 32 90 .250 .297 .421 .718 .258Kalish 21 3/28/88 OF 32 143 115 21 35 5 2 5 21 7 3 26 20 .304 .434 .513 .947 .331Espinosa 22 4/25/87 SS 133 576 474 90 125 31 4 18 72 29 11 74 129 .264 .375 .460 .834 .299Rizzo 19 8/08/89 1B 55 229 200 23 59 16 0 3 24 2 0 25 39 .295 .371 .420 .791 .286D'Arnaud 22 1/21/87 SS/2B 54 253 210 45 62 19 4 4 26 14 5 30 41 .295 .402 .481 .883 .317Danks 22 8/07/86 OF 30 138 118 25 38 11 2 3 21 5 1 18 32 .322 .409 .525 .934 .320Exposito 22 1/20/87 C 76 319 288 28 78 24 1 6 45 3 1 23 49 .271 .329 .424 .753 .269Lin 20 9/21/88 OF 131 562 479 75 127 23 2 7 54 26 11 66 75 .265 .355 .365 .720 .269Lough 23 1/20/86 OF 65 250 222 28 71 15 2 5 30 6 4 12 34 .320 .370 .473 .843 .305Bianchi 22 10/05/86 SS 60 245 220 32 66 12 2 4 28 12 2 20 47 .300 .360 .427 .787 .295Morel 22 4/21/87 3B 128 526 481 82 135 33 1 16 79 25 9 38 66 .281 .335 .453 .788 .274Joseph 23 6/18/86 C 104 412 380 50 108 23 2 12 60 2 1 26 64 .284 .337 .450 .787 .274Waring 23 1/02/86 1B/3B 128 543 473 70 129 35 2 26 90 5 3 51 121 .273 .354 .520 .874 .297 All of the guys who made the list were younger than Waring, all but one younger than Joseph. I'm not sure how Exposito's defense compares to Caleb's; offensively they're pretty similar, and Exposito's only six months younger. The two firstbasemen on the list are three and a half years younger than Waring. On the pitching side: Name Age DOB W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Matusz 22 2/11/87 4 2 2.16 11 11 66.2 56 22 16 5 21 75 1 5 276 1.155 7.6 0.7 2.8 10.1 3.50Kelly 19 10/04/89 1 4 3.09 8 8 46.2 33 21 16 4 7 35 1 2 178 0.857 6.4 0.8 1.4 6.8 5.00 Montgomery 19 7/01/89 4 1 2.25 9 9 52.0 38 15 13 0 12 46 3 5 212 0.962 6.6 0.0 2.1 8.0 3.83 Duffy 20 12/21/88 9 3 2.98 24 24 126.2 108 49 42 6 41 125 1 8 516 1.176 7.7 0.4 2.9 8.9 3.05 Britton 21 12/22/87 9 6 2.70 25 24 140.0 123 64 42 6 55 131 9 21 599 1.271 7.9 0.4 3.5 8.4 2.38 Kelly's the only righthander in the group. What's notable is that so many of the top 20 spent so little time in the league - and this includes Matusz. It kind of makes you wonder if the judges deducted points for anyone who didn't get promoted (or, as in Kelly's case, give up half the season to play another position).
  19. rlc

    Luis Lebron

    Crazy is using a slang sense of ridiculous. I would interpret his statement to mean: "It is wonderful and amazing that the Orioles have so much advanced talent in their system that will need to be protected this offseason." What he did not mean was: "Your statement about Lebron is absurd and worthy of ridicule." Crazy tends to make informative posts and avoids offhanded attacks.
  20. This is probably just a coincidence - an artifact of the tiny sample - but who was the last O's hitting prospect to struggle with the transition to AA? Markakis, Reimold, Wieters, and now Snyder have all improved their numbers when moving from Frederick to Bowie. I guess Fiorentino was the last one to trip on the step up...
  21. Tony DeMacio seemed to be a big fan when he used his first picks on Paradis, Hale, and Purgatory Smith.
  22. rlc

    Snyder vs. Smoak

    Edify me. Obviously Smoak has a very limited track record as a pro; not to be too geeky about it, that limited sample is just as likely to overstate his true talent level as it is to understate it. So what is the basis for saying that Smoak is hands down better? His numbers against amateur pitchers, playing three times a week with an aluminum bat? His scouting reports? Or the fact that the Orioles didn't draft him, while they did draft Snyder?
  23. rlc

    Snyder vs. Smoak

    With all the fawning over Smoak that goes on around here, I assumed the choice would be obvious, but I decided to look at their numbers anyway: Snyder SmoakAge Lev OPS BB K Age Lev OPS BB K18 R+ .873 30 4319 A- .606 5 43 A .577 9 5520 A .776 44 107 21 A .873 5 1021 A+ .848 29 83 AFL 1.097 6 9 AFL 1.056 10 1122 AA .951 2 9 22 AA .830 9 5 The first thing that I hadn't realized is how matched a set they are - they're only two weeks apart in age. The second thing I hadn't realized is that as far as their performance in professional baseball goes, Snyder has been better. The one advantage Smoak seems to have demonstrated is in drawing walks. So if there's some overwhelming advantage that Smoak has, I guess it must be in the scouting reports. Having never seen either of them play, I can't really comment on how accurate those reports are...
  24. rlc

    2008 Redraft

    Scott Moore if he was available; otherwise, Greg Aquino.
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