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Frobby

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Frobby last won the day on November 22

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13,675 Supreme Hangout Council Member

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About Frobby

  • Rank
    Hangout Blogger

Personal Information

  • Location
    Bethesda MD
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Besides this one? Breathing, I guess.
  • Occupation
    Lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Not sure I have one right now
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Frank Robinson (duh)

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  1. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    I posted way back at the beginning of the thread that I thought it was possible Nunez had another level of improvement left in him. If I’m guessing (which is all it is), I think Hays and Santander will be better hitters than Nunez at their respective peaks. But I don’t know it for sure. It’s sort of a moot point since we agree Nunez isn’t really competing with those two for at bats. As to Stewart, I’m guessing he will not turn out to be as good a hitter as Nunez, though I’m not sure about that, either.
  2. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    I’m not sure I buy your Baseball Savant argument. It’s not like Nunez started playing yesterday. We’ve seen him perform for parts of three seasons. His style of hitting (somewhat low BA and OBP, fairly high K rate, good power) has some value. The average team had a .227/.312/.407 OPS at DH last year. Nunez has hit .253/.319/.463 for us the last three years, and better than that last year. So he is a good enough hitter to help some team primarily at DH.
  3. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    I brought up Santander and Hays only because your post addressed them. I agree, Nunez wouldn’t have cost them at bats. I take your point there. It’s probably Stewart who benefits most from Nunez’s absence, at least until Diaz gets called up.
  4. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    Seven of 15 AL teams had one player get more than 50% of the team at bats at DH. Three had pretty much one guy exclusively, Three others had someone get at least 67% of the at bats. Notably, the Orioles were not one of these teams. Nunez had only 35% of the team’s DH at bats, and only about 40% of his at bats were as a DH. He played DH more often (percentage-wise) in 2019 than in 2020.
  5. Looking on Fangraphs, Shaw was not on their list of 37 prospects they rated. So, I’d guess he would not crack our top 30.
  6. I decided we need a thread for weird, anomalous stats we come across from time to time. Here’s a few I’ve seen in the last couple of days: - The 2020 Royals finished 26-34 and their bullpen had a 3.84 ERA, but somehow they had a 95% save rate (19/20). - The 2020 White Sox had a .143 BABIP at DH, and the Angels had a .187 BABIP there.
  7. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    Just to be sure my point isn’t misconstrued, this depends on the needs of a particular team as well as what’s available in the market at a given time. WAR already accounts for the relative value of offense vs. defense, and how much offense is typically available at a particular position. So overall a 1.5 WAR DH is just as valuable as a 1.5 WAR multiple position player. But not for every team and not at all times. Looking around the AL, four teams had a .651 OPS or worse at DH. You’d think a team like that could use a guy like Nunez.
  8. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    I think Santander and Hays eventually will both be better hitters than Nunez. And maybe that’s the point — we want these guys getting as many at bats as possible. The more experience they get now, the sooner they reach their peak performance. Now, do I think it’s a sure thing that they will eventually be better hitters than Nunez? No. Just more probable than not, IMO.
  9. I’d be totally against this approach. It’s the worst of all worlds: get his service clock running in 2021 but get very little major league experience out of it. For me, I’d like him up by July or not at all.
  10. This is going to be a much more regulated process. And it’s going to get a lot of scrutiny. We’ll see what happens.
  11. Still a lot of work to make the OP. It’s not surprising you missed one or two. Nice job!
  12. I think scientists probably have a pretty good idea of how many infections there will be in March 2021 and how many people will have been vaccinated by then. And I seriously doubt that the vaccination priorities are going to go to healthy men ages 20-40 who are not essential workers. I agree we are getting ahead of ourselves, but teams aren’t going to be in any hurry to play games in empty stadiums.
  13. And this, my friends, is why Chris Davis won’t be cut this winter. Starting in May means the O’s would save $4-6 mm off his salary, assuming the salaries are cut proportionally to games missed. By the way, I don’t know if that is a correct assumption, because I’m not sure if the deal that MLB cut with the players for 2020 carries over into 2021 or not if games are missed.
  14. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    My quibble here is that the term “market rate” means what teams are willing to pay. I’d say teams don’t pay these players their theoretical value. But we mean the same thing. I don’t think the market is static. Two players could have identical performance and demand could be higher or lower depending on circumstances. Let’s say you have two players who each were worth 1.0 WAR. One is a DH, the other is a middle infielder. Those two players may have equal value hypothetically, but one could be in greater demand than the other depending on what’s available in the market. A team that already has two DH types and a shortage of middle infielders is not going to be willing to pay the same amount for each player.
  15. Frobby

    Nunez DFA

    Apparently it’s not that obvious or someone would have traded for him. The market for WAR is not linear, even if you can make the argument that it should be.
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