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Frobby

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Frobby last won the day on January 14

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14,040 Supreme Hangout Council Member

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About Frobby

  • Rank
    Hangout Blogger

Personal Information

  • Location
    Bethesda MD
  • Homepage
    http://
  • Interests
    Besides this one? Breathing, I guess.
  • Occupation
    Lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Not sure I have one right now
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Frank Robinson (duh)

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  1. Or, he took a year of high school Latin, like I did. It’s the sine qua non for any pseudointellectual like me.
  2. I think you are missing a couple of points here. First, lots of players were scheduled to make more than $22 mm last year. But because they only played 37% of the regular season, they only got 37% of their scheduled pay. For example, Kershaw was scheduled to receive $31 mm but only received $11.5 mm due to the shortened season. Chen, on the other hand, had been released before spring training even began and therefore was owed his entire 2020 salary of $22 mm. I’m sure if the Marlins had known in advance that the season would be shortened, they would have left Chen on the roster and only paid him $8.1 mm. The second point is that Chen’s contract was significantly backloaded. The Marlins signed him for 5/$80 mm, which averages $16 mm/yr, but it was structured like this: $12.5 mm, $15.5 mm, $10 mm, $20 mm, $22 mm. So, the fact that Chen was the highest paid player last year is just a consequence of the pandemic truncating other players’ salaries but not his, and the backloading of his deal. Any way you slice it, the deal worked out horribly for the Marlins.
  3. I think your definition of a core player is stricter than some people’s. I agree Santander doesn’t meet your definition.
  4. 2021 is off to a tough start for Dodger fans.
  5. What is your definition? Which of these were core players for the Orioles? Machado Jones Hardy Markakis Wieters Schoop Davis Tillman Chen Gausman Britton O’Day Brach Anyone else on the 2012-16 O’s you’d consider a core player?
  6. Whether he is at peak value now depends on how he does in the future. He's certainly worth more today than he was at the end of 2019 or any previous season, I'd say. Whether his value goes up or down from here depends on whether he shows that he can continue to play at his 2020 level (or close) and stay healthy. So, if you are trying to determine the best time to trade him, it is a matter of whether you are willing to roll the dice on that. It's worth remembering that 37 games is a very small sample size.
  7. I agree wholeheartedly. But Kjerstad certainly isn’t ready to replace Santander today, and it may take a year or so to get a good feel as to whether he’s the player we thought we were getting when we drafted him. For all I know, Diaz could be as good or better than Santander down the road, but I’m not counting on it.
  8. I don’t understand what is meant by “easily replaced.” Guys who are capable of being average or better major league starters don’t grow on trees, especially if we are talking about the subset of them that are under team control at sub-FA prices for several years. It’s certainly possible to replace a guy like Santander, but I don’t think it’s that “easily” done. That said, I’m perfectly willing to shop him so long as we are seeking a decent return.
  9. I’ll take a wild flyer on Garrett Stallings, acquired in the Iglesias trade.
  10. I would think a lot of teams would want to double up on the GCL this year in view of the lost MiL season last year. So, we’ll have to see if the GCL can accommodate that.
  11. I understand that the O’s are planning to field two GCL teams this year. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/orioles-minor-league-affiliates-for-2021.html https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/12/os-expected-to-field-two-gcl-teams-notes-on-shortstop-and-more.html
  12. I mostly agree with you. By the way, Santander played 141 games between the majors and the minors in 2019 and had no time on the IL that year. I recall that some of his missed time in 2017 seemed to be the result of the O’s manipulating his Rule 5 status, though not entirely. In 2018 he only missed about four weeks. He was in the minors when that season ended and didn’t get called up. His injury history really hasn’t been that bad.
  13. You’re right, 20% is too high. Took a quick look and something like 10% of all pitchers who debuted from 2009-11 had a 10 WAR career. I do expect Wells to pitch in the majors but his odds of having a 10 WAR career are probably below that 10% average. And, at this point I’d think Davies might end up well over 10 WAR, considering he’s at 9.7 through age 27. He might hit 20 WAR if he’s lucky and remains healthy.
  14. As to the latter sentence, you just never know. The O’s apparently weren’t holding their breath on Zach Davies, but he overcame the challenges of having below average FB velocity and almost every team in the majors could use a guy like him in their rotation. The odds that Wells turns out to be another Davies are probably only 20% or so, but they’re not negligible. The guy has had success at every MiL stop, and that’s not something that should be ignored. Saying that, I doubt the O’s will be gaming his service time.
  15. I think they are some quotes from before Luke worked for the O’s.
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