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Frobby

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Frobby last won the day on January 24

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About Frobby

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    Hangout Blogger

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  • Location
    Bethesda MD
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    http://
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    Besides this one? Breathing, I guess.
  • Occupation
    Lawyer
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Not sure I have one right now
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Frank Robinson (duh)

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  1. Just to elaborate a little more, of the 29 right handed batters who batted 200-250 times last year, the highest platoon percentage was Donovan Solano at 54%.
  2. I’ve added the ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projection for each player in parentheses. As to Alberto, it’s very unrealistic to think he’s going to be in a platoon where all of his at bats, or even the vast majority, are against lefties. That simply doesn’t happen. Here’s a list of every player who had 200-250 at bats last year and a platoon percentage higher than 75% (i.e., 75% of his at bats came against an opposite-handed pitcher): Johan Camargo (switch hitter) Francisco Mejia (switch hitter) Adam Haseley (LHB) Matt Joyce (LHB) Ehire Adrianza (switch hitter) Ender Inciarte (LHB) Jake Cave (LHB) Jake Lamb (LHB) Ildemara Vargas (switch hitter) Alex Avila (LHB) Isan Diaz (LHB) It's basically impossible to protect a RHB from facing RHP a good percentage of the time, especially in this day and age where many starting pitchers are only going through the lineup twice before giving way to the bullpen. But really, it’s always been true. Back in the years where John Lowenstein was getting 90% of his at bats against RHP, Gary Roenike’s platoon percentages ran about 50%.
  3. I’d put it this way: either one could reach wildcard’s projection, but in each case it’s a bit optimistic, and the odds that both of them do it are pretty small. But I’ll be very excited about it if it happens. It would be a great sign for the team’s future.
  4. They put Wander Franco at no. 1, and looking at the clips of him, you can see why.
  5. They were really gushing about Rutschman. Said no. 4 might be too low, and that he’ll probably be ready for the majors this year but held down for service time reasons. And yes, they did say higher ranked than Mauer was because he has more power. Hmmm, where have I heard that before?
  6. I think the following projections are very optimistic: Hays .831 Wilkerson .783 Mountcastle .826 Sisco .772 Alberto .816 Severino .812 Also, I don’t understand who you think is getting the at bats at 2B. I’ll be stunned if Alberto bats only 220 times if he’s healthy.
  7. Rodriguez 22 spots ahead of Liberatore on this list.
  8. Mountcastle 94 Hall 69 Rodriguez 36 Waiting on Rutschman.
  9. Why? He can master two positions a week for two weeks and then master plate discipline the third week. Done!
  10. He made a brilliant decision. He backed out of a 3 year, $35 mm deal with us and took an $8 mm one year deal with the Cubs. He went out and had a 4.1 WAR season for the Cubs, by far the best year of his career, helped them win a World Series and parlayed that into a 5 year, $82.5 mm deal with the Cardinals. In the three years since then, he’s been worth 1.6, -1.4, and 1.7 rWAR. So, imagine he’d stuck with us an put up 4.1, 1.6, and -1.4 rWAR for his $35 mm. What do you think his next contract would have looked like? He would have needed to get 3/$55.5 mm in that next deal to equal what he has gotten/will get from the Cubs and Cards in those years. My guess is he would have fallen short by, oh, about $35-45 mm. In short, I don’t know if Fowler really wasn’t attracted to Baltimore, or whether he just bet on himself that he could do better than 3/$35 mm if he went out and had a good season. His market that winter had been very soft to that point, and 3/$35 mm for him did seem very cheap based on his track record at that point (he was basically a 2 WAR player coming off a 2.4 WAR season). Things worked out great for him. For us? Well, that 2016 team would definitely have been better with a 4.1 WAR version of Fowler in the lineup. My guess is that we wouldn’t have signed Pedro Alvarez and Trumbo would have been full time DH instead of playing a lot of RF. My guess is that exchange would have been worth 3-4 wins for us, pretty material when you consider that we finished 4 games behind Boston and that Toronto had the tie-breaker for the wild card. We might have won the division, or at a minimum been the host of the WC game and possibly had a different outcome there. But of course, we’ll never know. And it certainly doesn’t seem that Fowler would have precluded our slide into oblivion thereafter. It’s interesting to think about what might have been.
  11. July 2 is the start date of when the new allotment can be spent. I believe the deadline for the old allotment is a couple of weeks before that. There’s a brief “dead zone” where teams can’t spend either allotment. I assume the purpose of that is to avoid various shenanigans from occurring right at the cross-over date.
  12. I’d worry too much about his reaction time.
  13. I don’t think this is really accurate. The teams tend to get their expected starters into rotation pretty early on, and frequently they’ll travel if their pitching day falls on a day when they’re on the road.
  14. Oscar Colas and Norge Carlos Vera were the names I forgot. Luke had suggested that Vera might be able to command $2.5 mm.
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