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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. If a pitcher was used purely as an opener in the manner wildcard suggests, every fifth day, he’d throw 96 IP. Ynoa, used as he was, threw 110.2, including 13 starts of 64.1 innings. I would need to think about the efficacy of planning 3 inning starts. It depends a little on what’s happening the other days.
  2. And this is why you don’t hold an outdoor event for thousands (dozens?) of people in mid-December in Baltimore. At least the concourse has a roof, and they’re serving hot chocolate.
  3. I’m perfectly happy if he can replace Gabriel Ynoa and shave a run or so off Ynoa’s 5.61 ERA.
  4. I’m not expecting Akin to be nearly as good as Bedard, but he could have a better Orioles career, especially if he proves to be durable.
  5. Springer was basically the Grayson Rodriguez of the Astros, inherited by Luhnow after being drafted 1:11 the previous June. We don’t really have an analog to Altuve. Means might sort of fit the bill if 2019 proves to be the norm for him.
  6. We are heading into the equivalent of 2013 for the Astros, not 2014. The first season played under Luhnow was 2012. I do not expect a big jump this year. If we are ready to make a jump in 2021 similar to the Astros’ in 2014, I’ll be very pleased.
  7. I mentioned yesterday the study I’d done of active players through age 36. The average player in that group acquired 51% of their total WAR by age 29; the median was 53.5%. Cruz was the lowest in the group, at 25%. And that didn’t even include the 7.2 WAR he put up in his age 37-38 seasons. He’s about as extreme an outlier as you’ll ever find.
  8. Perhaps the new poster does not know there have been prior threads discussing this topic, or how to find them. He’s brand new, so cut him some slack. For his benefit, here’s one of many threads discussing all things Davis:
  9. Fangraphs has a longish piece up about Adam’s move that concludes this way: “It’s important to feel valued at work, and it’s easy to see how ballplayers in 2019 might increasingly feel like fungible assets. The 34-year-old appears seems excited to have signed with a club that appreciated his skills and presence — imagine that! — even if it takes him away from everything familiar and comfortable. That may or may not reflect an increasing willingness for guys to play elsewhere, but it’s certainly interesting to watch a star like Jones take a calculated look at the very large base of this year’s free agent pile on one side and the climate from recent winters on the other and decide ‘to hell with all of this.’” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/adam-jones-does-something-interesting/
  10. In Akin’s case, he just wasn’t pitch-efficient this year. 18.0 pitches per inning vs. 16.4 in 2018. As both Akin and his coaches have noted, the O’s had him working heavily on using secondary pitches in fastball counts. That hurt his pitch efficiency and his walk rate this year, but was for his long term development, not short term success.
  11. Breakdown by draft class etc. 2019 - 6 2018 - 2 2017 - 6 2016 - 4 2015 - 2 2013 - 1 International - 2 Trade - 7
  12. It’s all about GrayRod, in the end. Rom had a good year. Those are the only two in the OH top 30. There’s a few others I wouldn’t write off just yet.
  13. Yeah, I don’t know if I’d say he “struggled horribly” (his ERA was below league average), but I’d call his year somewhat disappointing and say he didn’t do enough to earn a call-up or presumptively earn a spot in our 2020 Opening Day rotation. My guess is he starts in Norfolk and gets called up after someone else is struggling 4-5 starts into the season, unless he’s absolutely bombing in Norfolk then. PS - I agree the many short starts were a concern.
  14. Well, upon thinking about it, there’s certainly precedent. Hays: drafted in 2016, major league call-up in Sept. 2017. Mancini: drafted in 2013, September call-up in 2016. Stewart: drafted in 2015, September call-up in 2018. The Mancini/Stewart timetable would get Stowers here in 2022. But, like with Akin and Mountcastle, Elias may not want to get clocks running by calling up players in September. And keep in mind, the rules are changing this year and September call-ups will be far more limited. So, I’d still project Stowers for no earlier than 2023, but perhaps I was too conservative in saying 2024. Of course, he didn’t dominate in short season ball, so we’ll see how quickly he moves.
  15. I generally tried to be conservative. I agree we could see Bannon or Diaz this year. I also think Baumann might arrive in ‘21 and GrayRod in ‘22. But, Elias seems to be in no hurry, at least so far. As to Stowers, my sense is he has talent but his swing needs some work. I don’t think they’ll rush him, especially since the OF has some younger players already in the majors and a few more on the way in the next 2 years.
  16. 2020: Bailey, Rucker, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann 2021: Lowther, Wells, Diaz, Bannon, Rutschman, McKenna, Pop 2022: Baumann, DJ Hall, Hanifee 2023: Rodriguez, Rom, A. Hall 2024: Henderson, Hernaiz, Stowers Some of these guys will get derailed or traded, and some prospects not listed will get some major league time. A few guys might beat my timetable. But, that’s how I see the pipeline right now.
  17. Green with envy. But I’ll try to make it there for a long weekend.
  18. Frobby


    A few comments from Hyde: Sisco: “When he got to us he was really swinging the bat well,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “For me, it was more of a confidence issue. I think he got in a little bit of a funk and had a hard time getting out of it. (But) I was happy with how he caught. I thought he really improved from spring training to the last game of the year, defensively, and I think there’s still a lot of room to grow defensively. But I know he’s putting it on himself this offseason to go to a facility and work on some swing thoughts that we had, as well as his body and other things. “There was a lot of conversations at the end of the year about things he could do this winter to improve and come into spring training. I know Cos (Tim Cossins) is going to go see him and it sounds like he’s doing that.” Severino: “Sevy is another guy that really improved his defense over the course of the year,” Hyde said. “He’s always been kind of a catch-first, throw-, bat-second guy and swung the bat well for us, especially against left-handed pitching. “I like the raw power. Sevy’s really strong. I felt like he was coming into his own offensively. He played more this year than he has in the past, and is still kind of learning the big league game a little bit. Tough to do as a young player behind the plate without a ton of at-bats. “I thought he improved defensively over the course of the year and he had a nice year offensively. He’s got some big power to center. He’s got bat-to-ball skills. So yeah, I’m looking forward to seeing Sevy in spring training.” https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/12/talking-about-orioles-catchers-and-outfielders.html
  19. Some Fangraphs comments on the players we selected in the minor league portion of the draft: “The Orioles popped two players, first baseman Cristopher Cespedes and second baseman Wilbis Santiago, from Cleveland’s lower minors. Cespedes had the second-highest average exit velo in the minors last year at a whopping 96 mph on average, but he’s a first base-only guy who’s been in rookie ball for several years. I love Santiago’s swing and think he’s been a victim of Cleveland’s terrific middle infield depth in the lower minors, which is why he’s been quite old for his level.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/ This report also comments on Bailey and Rucker. I posted those quotes on the threads about those two players.
  20. Fangraphs: “Michael Rucker, RHP (from CHC) We’ve been on Rucker for a little while because his deceptive delivery (he hides the ball well) helped enable an otherwise fringy fastball to play. Rucker pitched his way into the Double-A rotation in 2018 but was put back in the bullpen last year and his velocity jumped. He’s now 92-95, touching 97, and his curveball and changeup are both average, while the curve flashes above.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/
  21. Nothing in this Fangraphs report that Luke didn’t say already, but here it is anyway: “Brandon Bailey, RHP (from HOU) Another spin rate monster, Bailey is a short righty with a deep repertoire very likely to stick on the Orioles’ 25-man next year. Like most pitchers who’ve been touched by Astros player development, Bailey’s fastball plays at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up an above-average, 12-to-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape to look like a slider or cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity (91-94, touch 96), but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing, so he’s likely a multi-inning relief piece or swing man who works about 100 innings during the course of a season.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/
  22. While I understand spin rate is important, it still seems to me I’d prefer a 95 mph fastball with a 2400 mph spin rate to an 88 mph fastball with the same spin rate, even though the Bauer Units would be higher on the slower pitch.
  23. Elias wasn’t responsible for making trades. But he may have evaluated Bailey.
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