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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value. Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115. Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+. This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games. I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm. David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm. He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons. Mancini will be 30 this yea
  2. I believe the O’s were 21-50 (.296) in games started by Galvis last year, 31-60 (.341) without him. I’m not claiming cause and effect here — Galvis played decently for us. But we can certainly live without him.
  3. Homers have their place. But I think the wOBA numbers above tell it all. Odor’s projected wOBA of .299 would be second worst in the starting lineup, ahead of only Mateo. His homers haven’t outweighed his lousy OBP for several years now. They did in 2016 (.336 wOBA, .296 OBP). He had an OK OBP in 2015 (.316) and 2018 (.326) and put up a decent wOBA those two years (.334 and .325). I’d take any of those, but it’s not likely Odor can achieve that again. I hope he does.
  4. First of all, I’d be fine with signing Ellis to a minor league deal. Why not? But second, I think his 2021 major league results are highly likely to be a huge fluke. We’re talking about a pitcher with a career 4.92 ERA in the minor leagues, 6.09 in AAA in 314 innings (admittedly, in the hitter-friendly PCL). His xERA for the O’s was 5.44. All the signs point to SSS fluke.
  5. From an MLBTR chat: Freddy Galvis news is a bit of a surprise. Do you think we see a lot of FA sign overseas to "avoid the lockout"? Mark P 8:28 This is quite possible. Galvis is a cut above the usual type of player who signs in Japan, which indicates that the market is a bit broader than expected. Keep in mind that the Japan Series only ended less than two weeks ago, so the NPB offseason is only just underway.....wouldn't be surprised to see more slightly bigger-name players opt to head to NPB 8:29 Also, for some context, the Hawks have won seven of the last 11
  6. It may be that the Japanese team offered him a lot more than $1.5 mm. We’ll see.
  7. Here are some key monthly splits. Offense March/April (12-14 record): 3.62 R/G (14th), .224/.282/.366 (14th in OPS), 0.96 HR/G (13th), .211/.291/.303 with RISP. May (5-23): 3.86 R/G (13th), .234/.307/.397 (8th), 1.07 HR/G (10th), .219/.311/.317 with RISP June (10-17): 4.85 R/G (8th), .255/.317/.420 (9th), 1.37 HR/G (9th), .288/.337/.446 with RISP July (10-12): 4.41 R/G (9th), .232/.303/.400 (10th), 1.23 HR/G (10th), .231/.309/.329 with RISP August (4-24): 3.86 R/G (14th), .250/.302/.432 (9th), 1.39 HR/G (6th), .214/.291/.303 with RISP Sept./Oct. (11-20): 3.9
  8. September/October2021 -- finally getting around to this. 11-20 record 6-14 vs. AL East 8-10 at home 3-10 on the road 5-7 in one-run games 1-4 in extra innings Batting 3.90 runs/game was 14th in the AL .237 BA was 12th .308 OBP was 10th .391 SLG was 12th .699 OPS was 12th 1.19 HR/G was 7th .225/.314/.398 with RISP (274 PA, 236 AB, 53 H, 94 TB, 86 TOB) Pitching 5.84 ERA was last in the AL 5.97 RA/G was last 1.77 HR/G was last 5.05 starter ERA was 12th 4.37 IP/start was 12th 6.63 bullpen ERA w
  9. You can forget him. Freddy Galvis has reportedly agreed to sign with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 32-year-old Venezuelan-born infielder has played in 1,102 MLB games, 674 of them with the Philadelphia Phillies. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-d-backs-prospect-buddy-kennedy-has-a-mentor-in-money/
  10. It’s a clear overpay. But, when you have relievers like Michael Lorenzen getting 1/$7 mm, Lyles is not necessarily the worst way to spend that sum.
  11. Has there actually been a salary explosion? I’ll let Fangraphs figure that out when the winter is over. The early contracts often tend to be the more generous ones - that’s why the players sign early.
  12. Seems like whenever the Giants sign a former O, he does well in SF.
  13. So, league average wOBA last year was .315. I’ve taken the lineup from the OP and added the Steamer projected wOBA for each player. 1. Mullins CF L .331 2. Hays LF R .326 3. AR C S .339 4. Mountcastle 1B R .337 5. Mancini DH R .336 6. Santander RF S .323 7. Urias 2B R .317 8. Odor 3B L .299 9. Mateo SS R .283 That doesn’t look too bad at all. The problem of course is that these 9 players won’t get all the at bats. But at least when our regular lineup is on the field, we really onl
  14. I would have thought so, but your post suggested that you felt OBP was a better measure than OPS.
  15. There is a Maryland basketball forum elsewhere on this website. It’s worth discussing but really should be posted there.
  16. Overall, OPS is a better measure of offense than OBP by itself. It just isn’t as good as it could be because it puts too much weight on the SLG component.
  17. Well, I’m sure Mancini is being tested regularly and is well aware of the risk of recurrence. I’d say a recurrence this soon is not very likely, but of course I’m no doctor and don’t know any of the specifics about Mancini. Praying for the best.
  18. I’ll worry about wOBA then, which balances OBP vs. power more accurately than OPS does. The market isn’t dumb. It knows the value of the different aspects of offense.
  19. I agree with this. I do think improvement is pretty likely. Probably not enough to get to average, but we can hope for that.
  20. I just went through this yesterday. The number of runs we scored per homer was very low. That’s because we don’t put enough guys on base. It’s that simple.
  21. There’s a lot of variance in how that lineup could do. I think it could be anywhere from slightly above average to well below average. Midpoint at slightly below average. Santander bouncing back would be huge.
  22. Cruz had some steroid issues floating around that caused people to wonder if he’d be able to repeat his performance without being on the juice (or being caught on the juice). His big year in Baltimore answered that. Anyway, like I said, I’m talking about what Mancini would accept to sign an extension now, not what the market might offer him next winter. There’s really not much point to him doing an extension if it isn’t going to cover three years. Maybe he’d take a little less than $30 mm. But it’s academic because the O’s won’t offer an extension.
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