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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I’d guess Texas will pass Maryland in COVID deaths within 2 weeks, and maybe 1 week. As of today it’s 3,228 for Maryland and 2,965 for Texas, but Texas had more deaths yesterday than Maryland has had in the last week, and that trend is likely to continue. And, I do think the shortage of hospital beds and other things in certain parts of Texas is likely to result in some deaths that might have been avoided. No question that Texas deaths per capita is only a fraction of Maryland’s. I hope and pray they don’t get to Maryland’s level in that respect.
  2. This is the most likely thing. Though it’s also possible Elias thought there would be a good overslot candidate available at 30, and it didn’t play out that way.
  3. The angles may be artificial, but they’re still fun. I agree with you that overall I’d like it better if the fences were deeper.
  4. Here’s a nice interview of O’Day discussing his theory of pitching. Cerebral guy. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/darren-oday-talks-pitching/
  5. You’d need a lot more information. Even so, if it’s a true statement I’d say it’s somewhat meaningful. But it doesn’t really speak loudly about the owners’ overall willingness to spend. Even the best GM’s make less than many players on a team.
  6. We don’t actually know what Elias makes, right? So we really can’t compare them. Alex Avila holds the EVP title as a first time GM. I’m pretty sure Rizzo did, but now he’s president of baseball ops. To really make a comparison you need to know if they’re the top person in baseball ops. For example, Jed Hoyer is EVP and GM for the Cubs, but Theo is President of Baseball Ops. Two guys can hold the same title but still have different responsibilities and places in the pecking order.
  7. There are quite a few GM’s who hold EVP titles. Not all, but a significant number.
  8. I think your narrative of worrying about spending has gotten a bit shopworn. At the end of the day, now isn’t the time to be spending a lot on payroll. When the time comes, we’ll see what they do. There’s no significant evidence one way or the other.
  9. LOL, I was looking at the 1B list and wondering why Adam Dunn wasn’t there. Then I got to LF: “In all fairness, Adam Dunn could've made this list at several different positions, we just picked left field because that's where he had the most starts. He also was terrible at first base and in right field.”
  10. I’m too old and stodgy to remember what you said yesterday.
  11. Yeah, I’m sure all the Yankee fans are lamenting the poor defense that Jeter SNS Williams played while they were winning 4 World Series in 5 years. Really takes the joy out of it, I’ll bet.
  12. Last year MLB posted this job description: Key Responsibilities: Complete valuation analysis of player contracts and other analysis related to baseball labor markets Monitor trends in Club and Player strategy to assist in setting on-field policy and rule changes Oversee all duties related to Uniform Employee Contracts and the Employee Permissions process Serve as business customer to Commissioner’s Office baseball IT systems, ensuring data accuracy across baseball applications, managing vendors and assisting to set departmental IT strategy Provide analytical support to Clubs in negotiations and hearings with salary arbitration-eligible players Other projects as assigned by Senior Director, League Economics & Strategy. As I said at the time, you might as well call the job “Director of Collusion.”
  13. I am very happy we signed all our picks. I hope we’ll be able to look back in 5 years and say it was a great haul. Meanwhile I’m looking forward to seeing how they all do. I wish we could get a look at them this summer, but alas, we’ll have to wait.
  14. I don’t see anyone positioning it that way. 1.2% of the players and staff tested were positive, which is a much lower figure than is estimated to exist for the general population. Still, I do think there are reasons why the environment of pro team sports would expose players more than an average person. There’s inevitable close contact at times on the field while people are breathing hard, the dugout (bench in other sports) and locker room are relatively confined spaces, and there’s a lot of travel involved. Probably not as bad as working a check out line, but worse than a lot of other jobs.
  15. ESPN has some video and an article up. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29417681/nick-markakis-becomes-second-braves-player-opt-season
  16. I am not surprised. Nick signed with Atlanta for less money than he could have gotten elsewhere two years ago because that’s what his kids wanted him to do. He’s at a point in his career where he’s financially set, and the happiness of his family is extremely important to him. This decision might mark the end of his career, as I doubt Atlanta will want him next season with the young outfielders they have, and Nick doesn’t seem that motivated to play for anyone else. If so, he had a nice run and I’ll be there for sure when he’s inducted into the Orioles HOF.
  17. At the end of March, I created a weekly spreadsheet of new cases and deaths for the world, US, NY, Maryland and DC. I added Texas, Florida and Arizona last week, though I haven’t gone back retroactively for them. Nationally and locally, deaths are at a low point right now, even as new cases are at a high point nationally. 4,144 deaths in the US last week, 75 in Maryland, 9 in DC. That compares to highs of 18,574 in the US, 449 in Maryland, 82 in DC, all during the second half of April. But Maryland and DC both had an uptick in new cases last week, for the first time since late May, so we’ll see how things go from here locally. Nationally I think it’s almost certain that the weekly death totals are going to increase in July, but it’s a matter of by how much.
  18. It is a combination of many things, including this one. A few factors: 1. As you say, as we detect a greater percentage of the people who have the coronavirus, the percentage of detected cases resulting in death necessarily goes down. 2. We have learned a lot about how to treat the disease in the last 3-4 months. So we are getting better at stopping known cases from becoming fatal. 3. The cases are more spread out throughout the country, so most places that have patients aren’t in a situation where their systems are overwhelmed, as opposed to the early situation in NYC. There are some places that may be reaching this point now, but they are generally not as populous as NYC. 4. The growth rate in cases the last 3-4 weeks has been very large, and the deaths resulting from those new cases haven’t occurred yet. My best guess is we will see more deaths in July than we did in June, but it won’t be proportional to the spike in new confirmed cases we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks. And hopefully it won’t get to April/May levels.
  19. I think eventually they will make some rule changes designed to reduce strikeouts. They are too prevalent now.
  20. “I remember a moment from when we were teammates in Cedar Rapids,” O’Day said. “Mark was like, ‘Hey Darren, l want to throw a flat-ground tomorrow; come out to the outfield early, before batting practice. I want you to tell me if I’ve still got the stuff.’ I went out there and caught him, and he still had it. He had a good four-seamer with late jump — the one that everybody wants now, where it kind of looks like the ball accelerates — and he had a really good changeup as well. Mark was considering being a pitcher again, but then he was able to figure out the hitting part and went on to have a good career.” O’Day couldn’t have followed a similar path. Not even close. “Casual baseball fans — people who go to the games like social events — sometimes ask me if I’m a good hitter,” said O’Day. “I’m like, ‘No,’ and they say, ‘Why not?’ Then have to explain that it’s two completely different skill sets. They’ll be like ‘Oh, wow. I never really thought of it like that.’ So for those guys — the select few that have have both skill sets — it’s pretty cool to see. They’re unicorns, man.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-kyle-boddy-is-bullish-on-hunter-greene/
  21. Definitely not enough to pay all the MiL salaries. Still, an incredible gesture.
  22. My guess is that most players will feel this is a personal decision that each player must make for himself, and that they won’t hold any hard feelings against those who made a different decision than they did.
  23. The Bundy of 2018 probably wouldn’t be missed. But if you look at his career, that year is the outlier so far. I’m not saying he’s an above average starter, but he’s about average and the last time I checked, we did didn’t have a ton of those. Whoever we replace him with is likely to be considerably worse.
  24. The fact that coronavirus is related to other strains of flu strikes me as beside the point. I’ll just leave it at that.
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