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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. It affected guys like Koufax, Kaline and Killebrew. Overall about 60 players over 19 years. An explanation and a list here: https://www.baseball-almanac.com/legendary/Bonus_Babies.shtml
  2. Franco: -1.6 rWAR in 104 games Gutierrez: -0.8 rWAR in 73 games. However, 0.0 rWAR in 35 games with the Orioles. So, advantage Gutierrez.
  3. Yeah, I wouidn’t say it never happens. But we do see a lot of guys whose walk rates drop as they approach or reach the majors. I should add that I’m not that worried about this with Cowser. He didn’t hit for much power in a relatively small sample size at Delmarva, but I certainly believe he has significantly more power than he showed this year.
  4. His speed is not elite, but he’s pretty quick. Statcast has him at 28.1 ft/sec, 77th percentile sprint speed. I don’t think he will hit enough to justify carrying his glove, as his -0.8 rWAR suggests. But I do appreciate his defense for its own sake, while we have him.
  5. 2021 4-6 4-6 6-4 3-7 0-10 5-5 1-9 3-7 2-8 7-3 3-7 0-10 2-8 6-4 2-8 Heading into the final full ten-game block.
  6. I’m surprised nobody mentioned that Mullins got his 30th stolen base over the weekend in walkover fashion. First he stole 2B for his 29th, then he stole 3B while Boston was in a shift and failed to cover the base. Kind’ve a cheap way to earn his 30th, but whatever. Now he doesn’t need to worry about stealing except when the situation is right for it (not that I think he’d been worried about it). Now let’s see if that 30th homer is out there.
  7. I don’t think most players have the consistent ability to dial it up in clutch situations. Still, if I am measuring how valuable a player was to his team, situational context matters. We’re measuring the impact they had, not the impact they’re likely to have in the future or innate ability. WPA is a good stat for this purpose, and by that measure, Trumbo was 4th on the Orioles, behind Machado, Wieters and Davis.
  8. Given the 300 times we’ve seen a pitch squirt out of his mitt, I seriously doubt this was intentional in the slightest.
  9. A couple more nice plays by Gutierrez tonight. This guy makes the sidearm throw coming in with the best of them.
  10. Credit where it’s due. Sulser came in with runners on 1st and 3rd and two outs, got the third out and pitched a clean 8th inning. Wells made it interesting with two fly outs to the wall, then got the third out on a “routine” pop out that squirted out of Severino’s glove momentarily before he snagged it. So. 7 outs and no baserunners for the pen, preserving a 2-0 lead. Good job.
  11. Terrific outing by Means tonight. I think he’s especially tough for teams that don’t see him a lot. Glad to see Sulser strand his runners and then have the bullpen close it out without incident. The O’s had lost Means’ last 8 starts even though he pitched pretty well in 6 of them. Nice to see them finally win one for him even though the offense went to sleep after the first inning.
  12. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started at Delmarva. 46.2 innings there isn’t much. But they’d move him quickly if he got off to a good start, like they did with a lot of pitchers this year.
  13. I heard that never happens. Just ask Cedric Mullins.
  14. The potential problem is that guys who don’t hit for power often find their OBP drops as they move up the ladder. Simply put, major leaguer pitchers don’t walk singles hitters much. Low A pitchers can’t help themselves.
  15. 2.1 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR, but who’s counting? Still, that doesn’t mean homers aren’t valuable. It just means that Trumbo’s poor defense detracted from that value. There’s one area in which WAR doesn’t reflect real baseball. WAR proceeds from the premise that all home runs have an equal value since the batter doesn’t control who’s on base, how many outs there are or the score of the game. But when the game is a actually played, a solo homer in a 10-1 game has a lot less value than a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th down by three runs. Looking back at Trumbo in 2016, he was very go
  16. Well, this is an interesting question. The framing stats basically measure how many pitches were called incorrectly while a certain catcher was catching. But I’d say that does not depend entirely on the skill of the catcher. It may depend on whether the pitcher is hitting the catcher’s target vs. making him move his glove a long way to reach a pitch not in its intended spot. And, to some extent, it may depend on the reputation of the batter or pitcher. Maybe also on the stadium environment. (I think it’s been shown that home teams get more calls, and that probably happens more ofte
  17. Different situation with Arozerena’s service time, however. He had 129 days accrued going into this season (recall that last year each day counted as 162/60 = 2.7 days). So, there was no point in sending Arozarena back to the minors this year.
  18. Fangraphs has 4 RubberDucks in their top 104 prospects: 61. Brayan Rocchio SS 64. Tyler Freeman 2B (injured) 93. George Valera RF 104. Bo Naylor C All four with a FV 50 grade. That’s a pretty stacked team. Rocchio and Valera spent more time in HiA than AA this year. Naylor and Freeman spent the year in AA but Freeman has been out since late July with an injury. For us, they have Grayson at 12, the absent Hall at 18, and Gunnar at 88. The RubberDucks led the AA Northeast in runs/game at 5.28; Bowie was 2nd at 5.23. Bowie was 3rd in OPS and Akron 5th. A
  19. Yeah, he was terrible yesterday on pitches outside the zone. Palmer remarked that he was amazed the teams had put up 14 runs, given the size of the strike zone.
  20. Mountcastle deservedly got a lot of attention for breaking Cal’s Orioles rookie home run record. But I’m focused on another mark he is about to tie and then hopefully break. With one more walk, Mountcastle will tie Adam Jones’ career high of 39 walks, and with two, he’ll surpass Jones’ high with 40. I figure that, if as a rookie Mountcastle has already managed to walk more than Jones ever did in a season, that bodes well for him putting up reasonable walk totals and showing reasonable selectiveness as he gains experience. Edit: also, he had only 15 walks in the team’s first 81
  21. The Baz call-up makes all the sense in the world from Tampa’s standpoint. The guy has a 1.96 ERA in 10 AAA starts and is striking out 12.5 batters per 9 innings there. So, get him two major league starts before the postseason and determine if he is good (and ready) enough to add to the postseason roster. Either way, Tampa can still park him in AAA for a few weeks next year to avoid having him accrue a full year of service time (putting aside what happens with any labor stoppage or new terms of the CBA). He’d still be able to be called up in late April/early May and not earn a full yea
  22. I’m toying with attending Tuesday’s game even though it appears Fenter, not Rodriguez, will start that game. Anyone else thinking of going to either game?
  23. Also, it’s worth noting that the FCL teams were relatively young. The average hitter in the FCL was 19.9; Black averaged 19.4 (2nd youngest in the league) and Orange 19.7. The FCL average pitcher was 20.8; Black was 19.9 (2nd youngest) and Orange 20.9. So, when you consider that only two major league teams (us and Pittsburgh) split their talent among two teams, and that our teams were a bit younger than most, the poor record in the FCL for each team is pretty understandable.
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