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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Yes, they are fun. Fangraphs has something similar called Inside Edge that breaks down opportunities as impossible, remote, unlikely, even, probable and routine, each with different percentages of probability. But I believe those numbers are more subjective and they aren’t updated every day. I’m guessing that catch would go in the “unlikely” category, which is 10-40%. But it’s not listed in Hays’ stats yet.
  2. Looking at Hays’ Statcast stats, he is one for two in four-star catch opportunities, so I assume last night’s play is the four-star catch he’s made. A four-star catch is defined as a play where the odds of the ball being caught are between 26-50%. Five star catches are made 0-25% of the time. Hays is 0-2 on those. He’s 100% on 1-3 star catches. I think the four-star catch he missed was the one where he got a late break coming in on the ball, made a headlong dive, and actually gloved it a few inches off the ground but the impact of hitting the ground jarred it loose.
  3. I think Mullins is still better at getting to the ball. But Hays looks like a credible CF out there, and of course his arm is far superior.
  4. I think each of the five players listed in the poll exceeded expectations in 2019, some by a substantial margin. Of the five, which ones do you think will put up similar production in 2020?
  5. My point is simply that with fewer minor league teams, clubs would be making decisions more quickly about who to keep and who to let go. So you might miss some slow developers. You might not hold on to guys who stalled at AA/AAA for 2-3 years.
  6. At the end of the day, all the questions you asked are good cross-examination material, which a jury can weigh in assessing the accuser’s credibility. But, you still have to listen to the accuser’s testimony and decide if you believe her account or not. I think it’s a known fact that many women who are sexually assaulted choose not to go to the police, for various reasons.
  7. Without a doubt, in my opinion. He’s a very useful swing man.
  8. Not too connected with real baseball, but Fangraphs ranks Villar as the second best 2B for 2020 for purposes of fantasy baseball. Obviously, steals count for a lot there. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-30-second-basemen-for-2020/
  9. And yet, McCoy and Bannon rode the bench for the second straight day. The only Orioles “prospect” who got into Game 2 was David Lebron, who pitched in relief and was torched for 4 earned runs on 6 hits in 1.2 IP. At least Dean Kremer is listed as tonight’s starter for the Saguaros.
  10. Fans don’t like losing. Who knew? On to next year, I do not think there will be another large drop, and I think it’s even possible (though not likely) there will be some modest gains. Reasons: 1. I think we’ll have some interesting younger players like Hays and (eventually) Mountcastle who will get the fans interested. 2. I think we’ll be more competitive. The offense and the outfield defense could be decent if we play the right guys. The pitching could still be a horror show but it almost has to be better than this year because it really can’t get any worse. 3. I think the 1.3 mm fans who stayed with the team this year are very hard core and not easily peeled away.
  11. That’s easily a 4 star catch.
  12. Mancini went 4 gotr 4 with two doubles and an HBP tonight, raiding his OPS to .892. That’s the highest it’s been since July 2. Would love to see him crank it to over .900 at the end of the season.
  13. Same article: ”Unbelievable,” Mancini said. “He comes out and he plays with fire. I hate this saying, but 110 percent. He just plays so hard in the right way, so that was awesome to see, just the raw emotion after the catch. I’m really happy he’s back up here and healthy and showing everybody what he can do because he’s a really good ballplayer. “It was just an incredible play and I’m glad I got a front row seat for it.”
  14. Hays stood on the track, let out a yell and pounded his chest three times. With such force that he probably left a bruise. He also raised his cap to Guerrero, returning the gesture. “I love that stuff,” Hyde said. “I love guys showing emotion. I love how it fired him up and it fires the dugout up. Just a big-time play.” “It’s just raw emotion,” Hays said. “You don’t get to do something like that every day. It’s few and far between when a play like that happens. That was just my excitement coming out. “I saw some guys tipping their caps, so I tipped my cap back. I saw Vlad Jr. kind of take his helmet off, kind of give me recognition for making the catch, just a lot of excitement from all the guys reaching up and making that.” https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/09/mancinis-four-hits-cant-prevent-13th-sweep.html
  15. I don’t think so. Also, depending on how much he plays over the final 9 games, he may exceed the 130 PA limit to retain rookie status (which is also observed in assembling prospect lists). Hays is at 96 PA now.
  16. I guess you missed the 63 PA Hays had in 2017, the 47 PA Stewart had in 2018, the 191 PA Mullins got in the last two months of last year, etc.
  17. I don’t think it’s fair to call this a team of zombies. They’re playing hard every night.
  18. Hays saw what Mountcastle did often this year while playing alongside him at Norfolk. “Every level I’ve played with him, the guy can hit a fastball, he can hit breaking balls. He is a complete hitter,” Hays said. “He’s really fun to watch. What he did this year was unbelievable. And for a small amount of reps, he hasn’t had a whole lot of work in the outfield, but he looked good out there. He threw out a couple of runners. Seems like his arm played better in the outfield. I’m excited for him.” Now Hays can envision a day when he and Mountcastle are in the same O’s lineup. “Yeah, it would be exciting,” Hays said. “There are some guys that I’ve played with that people said we were prospects that would be here in the future. Me, (Anthony) Santander, DJ (Stewart) - we’re all here now. So looking forward to more guys coming up.” https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/09/austin-hays-on-finishing-strong-and-playing-with-ryan-mountcastle.html
  19. We are not going to change his mind. It’s subjective. He doesn’t like it. The fact that he may be in the minority doesn’t mean he now has to like it.
  20. To be clear, I’m not saying Villar can’t replicate this season, just that I wouldn’t expect him to. I wouldn’t base my plan or decision to trade or keep him based on that expectation.
  21. I’m 62 and ready for someone to demote me to there.
  22. I mean, he didn’t miss any significant time.
  23. I predict they make it. Nice weather, give aways, last weekend series of the year.
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