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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Yup. Not too surprised. But I do think we may see him cut before the OD roster is set, if it appears the team will play 162 games.
  2. I’m impressed with the crew that Elias has brought in, and am very hopeful that they will have success. I don’t completely agree, however, that there have been a lot of the same people running the organization before now. Every GM we’ve had here over the last 20 years has brought in a lot of his own people and also kept some. For example, a couple of years ago Duquette hired John Wasdin as minor league pitching director. He reportedly had a lot of input into Duquette’s last couple of draft classes in which we picked up guys like Hall, Rodriguez, Lowther, and Baumann, and was changing a lot of the teachings about pitching in our MiL system. Elias came and brought in his own guy (Chris Holt), which is more than fine, as Holt appears to be doing an excellent job. But it’s not as though the guy he replaced was some hidebound Orioles Way guy. I could cite you other examples of guys Duquette brought in who had little or no Orioles connection. I do think our new staff is really on the cutting edge, though. Hopefully it will yield good results.
  3. Well, I don’t think that’s likely. Right now his walk rate is 8.4%, which is high compared to his MiL rate of 4.6% but a little below major league average of 9.2%. Honestly, given his MiL track record, I’d be pretty happy if he was able to sustain that 8.4% rate he’s at now. Votto, meanwhile, has a career walk rate of 16.0%. That said, Mountcastle’s overall slash line at 23 (.333/.389/.504) compares pretty well to Votto’s (.321/.360/.548). But although Votto didn’t walk much in that first season (in which he played 24 games), his MiL walk rate of 13.4% foretold that he’d walk a lot in the majors. In short, I think Mountcastle will be a very good major league hitter, but I doubt he’ll be as good as Votto, and I certainly don’t expect him to put up OBP numbers like Votto.
  4. I agree we’ve heard this before, including from Tony I believe.
  5. https://art19.com/shows/baltimore-orioles-inside-the-yard-podcast/episodes/803739fb-f670-422e-acac-c3a486bf341a About 17 minutes long. Not a ton of quotable quotes, but well worth the time and here’s a few tidbits: Says the most important characteristic for an analyst is a passion for baseball The hours are long and the pay in the industry less than other industries, and it really hurts to have analysts who stay for a year or two and then move to another industry. So passion for baseball is key. The O’s get about 1,000 resumes every time they post a job opening in their analytics group. There are about 400 analysts throughout baseball. He’s very happy with where the O’s analytics department is now. You don’t get the impression he’s still playing catch-up. He watches what other teams are doing and really respects the work Tampa does, especially on defensive positioning. Talking about the new data he gets, including Trackman, he mentioned two things I’ve never heard of before: Hawk-Eye, and Continuous Player Tracking. I looked them up and think it’s all one system baseball has introduced: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tvtechnology.com/amp/news/mlb-rolls-out-hawk-eye-next-gen-baseball-tracking-analytics-platform -
  6. https://art19.com/shows/baltimore-orioles-inside-the-yard-podcast Fascinating interview, about 22 minutes. A few takeaways: O’s mantra has three elements: humility, growth mindset, collaboration. O’s minor leaguers had a book club and read stuff like Mindset, Legacy (about All-Blacks rugby team culture), Ego is the Enemy, a book about Nike, and It Takes What it Takes. Thought Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson got tremendous benefit from Bowie and were leaders. About Henderson he marveled that he was facing very experienced pitchers but “after a couple weeks he looked like he belonged and was right there with those guys.” Had two Zoom calls a week with the new players. Was very impressed with Kyle Bradish and talked him up a couple of times. “Wow is he impressive. He’s a guy who is a little under the radar for the industry but not for us...He’s pretty special.” Said Rodriguez and Hall have major league caliber stuff but need to fine tune it and throw it where they want consistently. Also said Diaz has major league talent and rises to level of competition. Talent screams “major league producer” and it’s a matter of pushing the right buttons to find a level of consistency. Very happy with the depth the Orioles have built. “It’s something to be excited about for Orioles fans.” Really likes the collaboration with Hyde and his staff, and Sig. Hyde spent a lot of time in minors and has been open to working with minor league side, even being on Zoom calls during the season. Blood talks with Cossins and Sanders all the time. Sig is a “brilliant impactful mind” and heavily involved. “One of the most important people in this industry, especially for what we’re doing.” Well worth a listen if you want some insight into our player development system and the guy who’s running it.
  7. I listened to this interview today to see if there were any other insights — not really. Mountcastle wasn’t the most interesting interviewee I’ve ever heard. The one thing I thought was interesting is that when asked what position players impressed him, Mountcastle didn’t mention Rutschman initially at all. He only made the “pretty swing” comment after being prompted with a “what about Adley” question. It’s also interesting that he mentioned Mattson and Hanhold.
  8. Thanks for this. We’ll be somewhere in the top 10 no matter what happens, so that’s good. That’s quite a lot of room to move one way or the other in two games.
  9. Are you even going to do a list this year, in the absence of a minor league season?
  10. McKenna is better defensively than Mullins? What’s your basis for saying that?
  11. Frobby

    Hays’ Hose

    Hays threw out a runner at the plate tonight. Perfect one hop throw to Sisco after charging a slow rolling grounder that had eluded the SS.
  12. The right choice IMO. Congrats to him. I hope his strong performance in a relatively short period this year carries over into 2021. Santander has now played just a little more than a full season’s worth of games (176) and his 162-game average is 29 HR, 91 RBI to go with his career .759 OPS (which includes his two partial Rule 5 seasons).
  13. Castro is under team control for 2 more years after this one, plus he was traded at the deadline and so played almost half of this short season for the Mets. I think one year of Iglesias at $3.5 mm is about as valuable as 2+ years of Castro at whatever Arb salaries he earns (he was scheduled for $1.05 mm this year before COVID cut the season short, and I’d guess earns $2.5 - 3 mm next year and $4-5 mm in 2022 depending on performance).
  14. This is about what I had in mind.
  15. Technically, he did stay healthy throughout his great MiL season and major league call-up in 2017, playing in 148 games between the minors and the majors. But he’s missed significant time with injuries every other season, including the year he was drafted (2016) and 2018-20. Though he has been oft-injured, he’s Ripken-like compared to Harvey.
  16. So, $20 mm of value at a price of $3.5 mm? Yes, I think you could get a decent return for that from a team that has real problems at SS. Maybe equivalent to what we got for Castro?
  17. I will never be able to bring myself to root for the team to lose games to improve their draft position. It’s just not in my DNA. But when they do lose, I console myself with the thought that at least they improved their draft position.
  18. Agree Hays should be the starter. As to defense, I’d put Mullins’ ability to get to and catch the baseball in the “great” category, Hays more in the “very good” category. But Hays has a plus arm and Mullins has a minus one. So overall, I think it’s about a wash as to who’s the better defensive CF, and Hays is the better hitter. I think we’ll be seeing a lot of Mullins as a defensive replacement late in games, and occasional starts vs. RHP.
  19. It’s MASN that owes the money, not the Orioles. But I forget right now if MASN overdistributed to the Orioles based on the old formula and will have to claw it back, or whether MASN was sitting on the money, or a little of both. Edit: went back to a MASN thread I started last December that reported that the O’s were over distributed about $69.6 mm that would have to be paid back to MASN if the award is not overturned on appeal. I’ve looked for information on the status of the appeal and found nothing helpful. It looks like the case is on some kind of calendar call for Oct. 1, but I can’t tell what it is.
  20. I am fine with the team profiting from payroll cuts during times when the team is bound to be bad/mediocre, so long as they spend In times when it will help their team to contend. I’m just surprised that non-player expenses aren’t up by, say, $5-10 mm. The O’s already were dead last on those expenses in 2018.
  21. https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/#44560d4c76db Not sure how the annual Forbes article escaped notice when it was published this spring. It shows the following for the O’s for 2019 (2018 in parentheses): Revenue: $256 mm ($251 mm) Net Income: $57 mm (-$6.5 mm) Gate Receipts: $35 mm ($42 mm) Player Expenses: $103 mm ($161 mm) Non-Player Expenses: $96 mm ($96.5 mm) To me the most interesting line above is the last one: non-player expenses basically flat.* If we thought that a good bit of the money saved on payroll last year was going to be plowed into infrastructure, hi tech equipment, upgrading facilities etc., it appears we thought wrong. Looks like the savings went straight to the owners’ bottom line. I have to admit, that surprises me. I do think we spent a good bit on that stuff, but apparently that money came from cuts in other types of non-payroll expenses. I’ll caution that the Forbes numbers are pretty superficial and who knows how reliable they are. But, they’re all we get. It’s also interesting to see the O’s revenue up by $5 mm despite gate receipts being down by $7 mm. So that’s $12 mm in extra revenue from somewhere. Probably national TV money. * The non-player expenses are not explicitly published by Forbes. I calculated them as follows: Revenue - Net Income - Player Expenses = Non-Player Expenses.
  22. Severino made a beautiful throw to 3B to catch Vázquez trying to steal 3B to end a second inning threat by the Red Sox. That’s the second time this week he’s made a great throw to 3B, having picked a runner off 3B in a previous game.
  23. Interesting thought. He’s been unbelievable with the bat this year. Obviously you’d expect him to slide substantially from this year’s numbers, but it does appear that his upward offensive trend the last three seasons mean he’s a better hitter now than he was a few years ago. So yeah, if we were willing to part with him we might get a decent prospect or two in return.
  24. Right. I have listened to very little radio this year, but have really liked Geoff Arnold the few times I’ve heard him.
  25. With their 24th win tonight, the O’s assured a 60-game record that is better than any 60-game stretch they had in 2018-19. I’m pretty impressed with that accomplishment. Hoping for a few more wins before it’s over.
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