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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

    I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

    It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

    I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

    To me, Hanser Alberto was a relatively successful pickup. 3.4 rWAR in what amounts to 1.4 seasons, compared to Núñez’s 2.2 rWAR in 1.8 seasons.   Yeah Nunez has the better bat but Alberto’s overall package is better IMO since he has some defensive value.    

    For that matter, Alberto’s 3.4 rWAR the last two seasons is more than Santander’s 2.9, though I’d certainly say the trend favors Santander being the better player over the next several years.    I’m looking forward to seeing if Santander can sustain the progress he’s shown the last two years.    
     


  2. 3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

    I am guessing he's so beloved by Blood in part because he executes the very high arm slot thing that made even Verlander say uncle after a couple years.  I have never seen him pitch, but am kind of visualizing our mini-Glasnow.  Third pitch, schmird pitch.

    Smoltz last night on Glasnow kind of gave the viewpoint it's unsurprising he's bad at anything feel as all that he has gets put into high fastballs and low curves on every pitch.  Taking anything off to hit a spot is contrary to the essence of who he is.

    I'll be curious to hear Palmer on these guys as the Orioles work toward today's assembly line.  Palmer's a bit of a blindspot for me repertoire wise - I've heard him self-describe as a high fastball pitcher, and I think the curve his primary secondary, but don't have a real clear idea how he fleshed out his arsenal.  I'm pretty sure he was more than today's Glasnow though.

     

    Palmer was a four pitch guy with terrific command.   Could throw any pitch in any count.   His delivery was very over the top and his CB a pretty pure 12/6.    Nice slider that broke both down and away.   To my recollection he didn’t throw his change much, but he had it in his arsenal.   


  3. The next four guys who appeared on last year’s list are (in order they appeared) Stowers, McKenna, Zimmerman and Bannon.  I don’t see any reason for Bannon to have jumped the other three, so eliminate that choice. 

    If Tony stuck with last year’s order, this has to be Servideo-Stowers or Stowers-Smith.    But Zimmermann did reach the majors, so he could have jumped Stowers and McKenna.  So, Smith-Zimmermann or Zimmermann-Nevin are live possibilities.  

    It’s kind of guesswork here, but I think Smith will show up here and that Zimmermann didn’t do quite enough to jump Stowers.   So, I’ll go Stowers-Smith.   My second choice would be Smith-Zimmermann.   
     


     


  4. 1 hour ago, weams said:

    I accidentally deleted it by phone and was unable to restore. It was a finger error, not a content one. Though I agree. It need not be discussed further. It is totally discredited.

    In light of the fact that several posters (including Tony) hadn’t seen that MLB had rebutted the original article, it’s probably worthwhile to leave this thread here.   


  5. I am really interested to see what this guy does.    Matt Blood really hyped him up in his interview about the alternate camp site, mentioning him as right up there with Rodriguez, Hall and Baumann.      If that proves correct, then he’s going to move way up in the rankings next year.   But I can’t blame Tony for taking Blood’s comments with a grain of salt, either.    Definitely a player to watch in 2021.    


  6. Just now, Tony-OH said:

    Wilkerson is a good depth guy to have in the system because he has a little speed, can play the outfield and second base decently, and fill in for a few innings at 3B or even SS. Plus he helps the AAA team out because he can fill in so many positions.

    He’s okay but I think the days of us needing a super-utility guy who can play both OF and IF are over, with the OF depth that’s graduated to the majors.    I far prefer Valaika given our current configuration.   Of course, if we non-tender Alberto we may find Valaika promoted to starting 2B.


  7. 4 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

    Been thinking about last night's game. 

    For me, it was a great reminder that baseball is at its best, most exciting and most entertaining when a ball is put in play with runners on base: fielders reacting to the batted ball, runners reacting to the fielders, fielders reacting to the runners, runners ignoring the coaches, everyone making split-second decisions  based on their estimates of their and their opponents' ability and their own, taking into account the score and the inning. No other sport has that kind of panoramic activity and uncertainty, with so many possible outcomes. 

    I'll take that kind of action over a launch-angle ball hit 10 rows into the stands, followed by meaningless trotting around the basis, any day.

    Baseball is losing that excitement, and nobody in authority seems to care.

    Every time someone wants to adjust something to tilt the game that way, the traditionalists recoil in horror.    God forbid any rule get changed ever!

    Teams that play launch angle ball are winning.  That’s the problem you have to solve.  


  8. 3 hours ago, Philip said:

    Well, if I may continue my musician comparison, I’ve had many students come to me with problems that the previous teacher had not solved. And I have solve those problems. So the question is why did not the previous teacher solve those problems? Again, it’s all water under the bridge, and there’s not really any reason to rehash It, but I stand by what I said, and I’m not the only person who thinks that way.

    I guess my question is, do other teachers sometimes solve a student problem you were not able to solve?   With baseball coaches, some players mesh with them and thrive, others don’t.   Classic example was Leo Mazzone when he was here.  Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie both thrived under Mazzone, while Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen regressed badly.   A coach can fix one guy and break another.    I do think some are better than others, of course.    But nobody’s right for everyone.   

    • Upvote 1

  9. Tony, I think your points about the players Elias has brought in off waivers not producing much Is stronger than the point about Yaz. It’s not like they had a lot of time to evaluate Yaz.    Basically, a few weeks in the spring when he showed very little, to go with his mediocre track record.    


  10. 44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    That's fine.  Its proven that the organization was a disaster before Elias (its not a lot better now because we are still owned by the same family but they are better nonetheless).

    But Phillip is using the words "he should have been given a chance".  I see zero evidence that they SHOULD have done anything besides what they actually did.  I also think there needs to be some accountability on the part of Yaz himself.  Maybe the Os wanted him to do things differently but he had plenty of time to show them what he could do and he failed.

    I agree with you there.    I don’t see any reason why you give a chance to someone who hasn’t really shown anything much in 6-7 years in your organization.   He did get a spring training invite last in 2019 under Elias, which is more than he ever got under Duquette.   Put up a .599 OPS in 18 at bats.   Can’t really blame Elias here.  


  11. I found the Appellate Division decision.   To say they gave MASN’s arguments short shrift would be an understatement.   You can read the opinion here, and it takes about 60 seconds to read: 

    http://nycourts.gov/reporter/3dseries/2020/2020_06039.htm

    I agree with spiritof66 that the NY Court of Appeals will not hear a further appeal.    I don’t know how long MASN gets to petition that Court or how long it usually takes for the Court to indicate whether it will grant a hearing, but I’m guessing this will all be over in a couple more months.    

    As a reminder, even though the total amount awarded in the second arbitration was close to the amount awarded the first time, the methodology was somewhat different and possibly more favorable towards MASN/the Orioles as applied to later periods.
     


  12. 21 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

    I think a case could be made for Adam Hall being in the 10-12 range. I'm interested to read why he's fallen so far in your rankings.

    I don’t think Hall has really fallen in Tony’s rankings, at least, so far.   The only guy who was on last year’s list and jumped Hall was Hernaiz, and Tony explained that it’s because Hernaiz showed up a lot stronger in camp this year.   So it’s more a case of moving Hernaiz up than moving Hall down.    

    So far this year we have the following new players placed ahead of Hall: Kjerstad, Westburg, Vavra, Haskin, Mayo, Baumler.  My guess is that a couple of those guys might be below Hall next year, once we’ve actually seen them play professionally.     Until then, Tony’s going on upside.   


  13. 27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Still waiting on a reason why Yaz SHOULD have had a chance.

    To me, using the word should implies that he earned it.  It implies that he proved to the organization that he was a MLer and they overlooked him and didn’t give him that chance.

    Is that what people believe?

    I think the issue here isn’t whether Yaz should have gotten a major league shot based on his MiL performance, but whether the Orioles’ development team hindered his performance by trying to force him into a box regarding his approach at the plate.   That’s what Yaz has said.    I can’t really blame Elias’ crew for failing to pick that up in the few weeks they had to look at Yaz before he was traded.    It’s on the old regime if Yaz was poorly coached.  

    • Like 1

  14. 14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

    Severino has lapses in concentration and can get lazy behind the plate, but he's not a very bad defensive catcher. He was worth .4 WAR defensively and threw out 31% of base stealers when the leg avg was 26%. 

    Now do I think Severino is not replaceable, no. But he's a decent stop gap until Rutschamn is aready and should be that expensive even in arbitration.

    Really, the passed balls are the problem with him.   His arm is good.   


  15. 9 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

    MASN and the Orioles do not have a right to appeal this decision to the Court of Appeals, NY's highest court. They have to ask the Court of Appeals to grant an appeal. It's hard to see any reason why the Court of Appeals would choose to get involved at this point.

    Thanks.   Thought that was the case, but I wasn’t sure how it goes in NY state court.   


  16. I would have been shocked if MASN had won its appeal.   The law is very heavily stacked to not overturn arbitration awards.   The prior decision that overturned the first award was a very rare exception.   MASN has one more level of appeal it can take, but it will almost certainly lose again.   

    My recollection is that although MASN owes the Nats $100 mm in rights fees, about $30 mm of that is offset by a reduction in the Nats’ share of MASN’s profits.   (Higher rights fees —> lower profits for MASN so the Nats’ share of profits go down.)

    Of course, by now we’re 4 years into the 5-year second “reset” period, and that one hasn’t even been the subject of an arbitration award yet.  
     

    • Upvote 1

  17. 1 hour ago, interloper said:

    I sorta feel like if we didn't see Zimmermann struggle in his callup this year, more people would be voting Zimmermann/Bradish. So that's how I voted. Although I admit to kind of liking Bradish/Smith a little more haha. But again, that's because they're new guys that I'm excited about. 

    Zimmermann had a bad debut (3 IP 5 ER) but a good second outing (4 IP 1 ER).   So, I certainly didn’t get a negative impression of him.   I look forward to seeing what he can contribute next year.   


  18. I kind of like the fact that the signing date has been pushed back to Jan. 15, maybe permanently.    It’s something interesting to look forward to in the dead of winter now.    One thing that isn’t clear is whether the age cutoff is changing (i.e., the date by which the player must turn 16 in order to be signed).    I’m assuming it hasn’t changed because otherwise this year there would be seven months worth of players that teams would have no money to sign, having already committed their money to the guys turning 16 before J2.

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