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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

    Because I don't buy into "injury prone" as a rule. If there's a degenerative issue, I see it, but some guys age into a lot of injuries and others age out of them. Others just never are the same again. 

    I concede that Santander has to prove he can stay healthy though. That's why I said it was his achilles heel, and not the OBP.

    I mostly agree with you.   By the way, Santander played 141 games between the majors and the minors in 2019 and had no time on the IL that year.    I recall that some of his missed time in 2017 seemed to be the result of the O’s manipulating his Rule 5 status, though not entirely.   In 2018 he only missed about four weeks.    He was in the minors when that season ended and didn’t get called up.   His injury history really hasn’t been that bad.   


  2. 3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I think you misplaced your decimal point.

    You don't actually think that Wells has a one in five chance of racking up 10 career rWAR do you?

    You’re right, 20% is too high.   Took a quick look and something like 10% of all pitchers who debuted from 2009-11 had a 10 WAR career.   I do expect Wells to pitch in the majors but his odds of having a 10 WAR career are probably below that 10% average.    And, at this point I’d think Davies might end up well over 10 WAR, considering he’s at 9.7 through age  27.     He might hit 20 WAR if he’s lucky and remains healthy.   


  3. 1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I don't think any of the names you mentioned are call up and keep up guys.  I think it very unlikely that the O's are worried about who Wells is pitching for in seven years.

    As to the latter sentence, you just never know.   The O’s apparently weren’t holding their breath on Zach Davies, but he overcame the challenges of having below average FB velocity and almost every team in the majors could use a guy like him in their rotation.    The odds that Wells turns out to be another Davies are probably only 20% or so, but they’re not negligible.     The guy has had success at every MiL stop, and that’s not something that should be ignored.   

    Saying that, I doubt the O’s will be gaming his service time.    
     


  4. 19 hours ago, wildcard said:

    I'll believe when I see it.

    Fair enough.    There have been many times we heard over the winter that a late season injury was nothing serious, only to find out the following March or April that the player needs surgery.   I’ll certainly be holding my breath.


  5. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    No..it impacts future salaries.  The Os are right for standing their ground.

    And the flaw in Frobbys analysis is ignoring injury history.  The Os will definitely play that angle up and talk about how much time he misses.

    I don’t see how I ignored that.   I mentioned twice that Santander had played far fewer games than the players I cited as comps.   I guess I didn’t say the word “injured” but that was pretty clearly implied.   


  6. 10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    They went to arbitration with Joseph over 300K.

    They did, but as I recall they did offer a compromise and Joseph foolishly rejected it.    This was after his 0 RBI season and he foolishly thought he was going to get $1 mm in his first year of arbitration after that performance. Bad decision.   

    The O’s have a very good track record in arbitration but did lose the last one they contested, to Brad Brach.  
     


  7. 21 minutes ago, scOtt said:

    I used to be a semi-serious bowler. 180+ avg. I bowled several years in a traveling league with some serious (for our area) bowlers. Every year there were two or three 300's bowled. Quite a few guys averaging over 200.

    Somehow, I figured you’d answer yes to this one.    You’re much better than I was.    I was around 155 at the top of my game, maybe 160.  My grandfather, who taught me how to bowl, was around your level.    

    When I was in middle school we had a prodigy female bowler who in our league at age 12-13 rolled a 289, which was a record for her age group.   Her dad used to watch her bowl and she bowled in several different leagues.   At age 15 or so she got sick of it and quit.    Shows you can only push a kid so hard.  
     


  8. 4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Injuries are an issue here though.

    And btw, while I know there will be people who say the Os should just cave in and meet him in the middle of something, understand that with him being a super 2 guy, a few hundred thousand now could mean millions over the course of the next 3 years.  

    It’s a pretty small difference.   I doubt the outcome will have much effect on future years in his case.   His performance will have a lot more impact.   


  9. 5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    I don't know about that.    Cobb may have his annual blister problem.    Baumann, Lowther, Wells and Zimmerman probably need to begin the season at AAA.  Finding a starter who is better than Lopez and who can also move to pen when younger pitchers are ready is a better plan IMO.

    I’m fine signing another pitcher or two.    There’s always attrition.   

    • Upvote 1

  10. Another article from Melewski on the international signings, notable because it provides virtually no new information or quotes but pretty much just recycles yesterday’s information.   And honestly, yesterday really just confirmed what we already knew was going to happen.    But hey, we’re on the map in the international market so we may as well wallow in it.

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/01/another-look-at-a-landmark-day-for-the-os-organization.html


  11. Anyone here a serious or semi-serious bowler?    I was as a kid.  Bowled in leagues through most of middle school and high school, and still spun a few games during college and law school.   

    As a young lawyer, I joined a league one year where I was in the bottom 10-20% of the league.    I was rusty by then and the games lasted until about midnight and it was tough to do that mid-week while billing 2000+ hours a year in my job at the big law firm, so I gave it up after a year.   

    Since then, I had kids and my closest bowling alley was converted to a Whole Foods.   So, other than a very rare outing while my kids were growing up, I pretty much gave it up.   I probably haven’t rolled a game in 10+ years.   But I still kind’ve miss it.    

     


  12. 8 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

    Feinsand reporting a 375K delta:

     

    My offhand reaction is that Santander is likely to win if they take this to a hearing.  This year,  MLBTR uses two methodologies to estimate what the player will get.   The first one ignores that the season was shortened and just looks at what the player would have gotten if he’d had the same season he did.    By that method Santander gets $1.7 mm.   The second method takes the player’s stats and projects them to a 162 game season.    By that method Santander gets $3.0 mm.    Just based on casual observation, most players have been getting the midpoint of the two methods, or higher.    So that would put Santander at $2.35 mm+.   His $2.475 mm ask is within $125 k of that midpoint, while the O’s are $250 k below.    Advantage Santander.

    Now, this assumes MLBTR’s methodologies aren’t way off base for Santander, as they occasionally are (e.g. Mancini and Villar last year).    I need to think about that more, but offhand, the estimates seem pretty good to me.   In the last two years he’s produced 3.1 rWAR and .261/.302/.505 with 31 HR and 91 RBI in 130 games.  I’d pay $2.475 mm for that and say thanks very much.


  13. Melewski has updated his article with some new quotes.

    Elias:

    “I do think we’ve got guys here that immediately enter the conversation for some of our top prospects. And I think it’s going to be exciting to see some of these guys play well and then rise up the ranks. So big step for us.”

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/01/basallo-and-hernandez-head-up-os-international-class.html

    • Upvote 2

  14. 1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

    Not that I disagree re: what is prudent, but there's a non-zero chance that the two best pitchers in the organization right now are Rodriguez and Baumann. There will be hand-wringing when they're held back. It might be best to hide them from the ML camp just so it's not apparent to the world that they're better than 70% of the guys on the ML staff.

    AR too, for that matter.

    From what I read about Rodriguez’s performance at the alternate site, he is not ready for the majors, full stop.   Per Tony:

    “It’s tough to put too much emphasis on the auxiliary camp, but he had his struggles at times against the advanced hitters. Still showed the plus stuff with a 94-96 MPH fastball, power curve and solid change but showed more control than command this summer. Reportedly didn’t get a lot of swings and misses in the strike zone but may have been because he was too much in the middle of the plate. Again, it was huge jump to face the advanced hitters he faced this summer so nothing to be too concerned over, but it might have nicer to see the raw stuff work a bit better at times.”

    AR is a different story.

    • Upvote 1

  15. 1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

    To be fair, he didn't actually make $4.8M last year, he made 37 percent of that. Tough for a guy to not get a bump because of poor performance in a 60 game season.

    Sort of the opposite situation with Santander, how much weight to put on a GOOD 60 game season.

    Really, a good 37-game season.  Since he’s in his first year of arbitration, I think they’ll sort of lump 2019-20 together in evaluating what he’s worth.   

    I’m really a bit surprised this didn’t settle.   It’ll be interesting to hear what the bid and ask were.   
     

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