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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 1 hour ago, wildcard said:

    The major thing it means for the O's is that  a missed 2020 season would save them $37M.   23M for Davis and 14M for Cobb.  Davis will have 2/46M remaining on his contract and Cobb will have 1/15M left.

     

    Why distinguish their salaries from everyone else’s on the team?    They would all be saved in that situation.    And I hope that doesn’t happen.    I won’t feel the slightest bit good about the O’s not having to pay Davis and Cobb if that means there’s no baseball this year. 

    • Upvote 2

  2. On 3/30/2020 at 12:59 PM, BRobinsonfan said:

    I know Strat-O-Matic had a bigger following - and I even tried Strat-O-Matic at one point - but by then APBA was in my blood... everything else was a poor simulation after that.  :D

    Played both, liked APBA better.    I also played a game that used a spinner instead of dice.    Each player had a multi-colored disk that fit over the spinner.    If it was a high average hitter, a larger percentage of the circumference would be whatever color represented a single, etc.    Can’t remember the name but for some reason I associate the game with Lefty O’Doul.

    Edit: It was All-Star Baseball:

    https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/3157/all-star-baseball

    “Designed by former major league player Ethan Allen and introduced in 1941, All-Star Baseball became one of the most popular sports games of all time. The game is essentially a batting simulation of major league baseball, built around a spinner and player disks that are divided into sections in such a manner that a hitter has the probabilty of reproducing his real-life statistics in such important categories as home runs, triples, doubles, singles, walks, and strikeouts. In general, the game follows the basic rules of major league baseball. Teams are created from the player disks supplied with the game (often a mix of current players and all-time greats such as Babe Ruth) and from player disks for other seasons published separately. The team at bats places the appropriate player disk on the spinner, spins, and reads off the resulting number. The game does not attempt to realistically simulate pitching and defense. Thus a hitter's result from a time at bat is not affected by the opposing pitcher or the defensive prowess of the fielder to whom the ball may be hit, although the player in the field on some play outcomes is required to spin a second spinner to determine the advancement of base runners and other certain details. Results of each play are recorded on the field using plastic pegs for the base runners, while runs and outs are tallied on a rotating scoreboard. Cumulative runs scored are tallied on paper score sheets. Strategy discs are included that enable plays like sacrifice flies, stealing bases, bunting, hit and run, etc. The team with the most runs after nine innings (or extra innings, if needed) is the winner.

    • Upvote 1

  3. 6 hours ago, jarman86 said:

    I am reading.  You say school is more important than spectator sports.  This is a belief you have not based on logic. 

    1.) Who gets more funding, a stadium for a professional team or Olympic committee or public school system?  Answer, sports.  Sports has more money for politicians and more jobs.  Rich people send their kids to private schools, which have the ability to do home schooling and what not.  Politicians will sell their first child to have a NFL team in their city, you think they give a darn about schools in budgets?  Give me a break.

    School budgets:

    Baltimore County $2.17 bb

    Montgomery County $2.68 bb

    Prince Georges Count $1.8 mm

    DC $918 mm

    Howard County $972 mm

    Ann Arundel $1.27 bb

    That’s an annual expenditure, not a one-time expenditure on a stadium.

     

    • Upvote 3

  4. 7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

    Wow, that is insane valuation for Wander. I know he is #1 prospect but is *anyone* that much of a sure thing to be that good? 

    Maybe not, but if he’s as good as expected, he’ll be worth more than the $180 mm in surplus value.    So that’s factored in.   

    I can’t wait to see that guy play — against other teams!
     


  5. 2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    They added 1-1 and didn't promote anyone of note.  Would have been a disaster for them not to have improved at all.

    Well, sure.    At some point maybe I’ll look at their 2019 list in detail and see what changed.   On a quick look, last year we only had 32 players ranked 35+, this year we have 40.     Stewart and Martin graduated from last year’s list and Jackson was returned to his team.    


  6. 4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    It's old school, but I agree.  I just watched a bunch of the Ken Burns Baseball documentary.  Still holds up fairly well.

    But I'd like to see a game with less strikeouts, more balls in play.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, batting average isn't en vogue these days but it would be cool to see someone hit .350 again.  Or .375.  

    Until you wrote this, I hadn’t realized how long it had been since anyone hit .350.    Last qualifier to do it was Josh Hamilton in 2010.     


  7. 59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    That isn't exactly promising considering they picked 1-1 last year and recently had a talent sell-off.

    It’s an upgrade over last year but isn’t going to wow anyone.     For me it comes down to this: it’s really hard to have an elite farm system unless you are getting your share of the international talent.    And that takes time to (1) ramp up to acquire, and (2) bubble up to the stateside teams where they can be evaluated for purposes of a list like this.    I figure it’ll be at least 5 years before our MiL teams from the top down include our fair share of players we signed internationally.     


  8. Fangraphs has now put up its own chart similar to the one I was keeping:   https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summary?type=0&filter=&pos=&team=sfg&sort=-1,1

    Their numbers vary slightly from mine and they have the Giants ahead of us, moving the Orioles down to 11th of the 20 teams they’ve graded.    They also show partial valuations of the 9 teams they haven’t graded, just based on the players those teams placed in their overall top 100 who are on those teams (each of whom was graded in that process).   Based on that, the Padres, Dodgers and White Sox are already ahead of us before the rest of their non-top 100 players have been graded.   You can’t tell if any other teams are likely to pass us.

    By their model, our four players ranked 50 or higher are worth $138 mm, whereas the other 36 players that they graded at 35+ or higher are worth $69 mm.    Of the other teams that haven’t been fully graded, their grade 50 or higher players are worth less than ours, but some are close.    So, whether they pass us depends on how much depth Fangraphs thinks they have.

    Oh yeah — they put a value on grade 80 Wander Franco — $180 mm.    He’s worth more than 7 teams’ entire farm systems all by himself, by this model.     No pressure though.     

    Here’s an accompanying article:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-progress-farm-system-rankings-are-now-on-the-board/


      

     


  9. I just finished Erik Larson’s latest book, The Splendid and the Vile.     It covers the first year of Churchill’s time as Prime Minister in WWII, during which the British pulled off a miraculous escape from Dunkirk, Britain endured 8 months of near-nightly bombing raids, and the US passed the Lend-Lease Act as FDR’s response to Churchill’s pleas for weapons and munitions.    The book is centered around Churchill but also has detailed accounts of others in his family, various key advisors, and various figures in the US and Germany.    As usual, it’s a stellar narrative by Larson that reads like a serial action story.    

    It’s a really good time to read a book like this, remembering the past sacrifices people made and hardships entire countries have had to endure, and yet emerged from.    I’m starting a new book, Last Hope Island, that focuses on the contributions made by some of the smaller European nations during WWII, including a number of government leaders who had taken refuge in London while still resisting the Germans after their countries were overrun (hence, the title of the book).
     


  10. 8 hours ago, scOtt said:

    California!....... is oddly corona free. Except for the tasty beer...

     

     

    7 hours ago, UpstateNYfan said:

    It is NOT corona free. 7,447 confirmed cases and 150 deaths as of 3/31. But, thanks for the disinformation.

     

    It is a surprisingly small number so far considering that they had cases very early on compared to most states and it’s our most populous state by a wide margin.    


  11. 21 hours ago, DocJJ said:

    Love this topic.   So many to choose from.

    I'd vote for Larry Sheets who tricked people into thinking he could hit by clubbing 31 HR one season.  May have been a juiced ball that year, as a lot of guys had huge years.   But then he completely vanished.

    Jeff Ballard was a nice 1 year sensation.

    Ryan Kohlmeier tricked people into thinking he could be a closer by pitching to a 2.39 ERA with 13 saves one season.   (His 15 walks with 17 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched should have convinced people otherwise.)

     

    Jim Johnson was a "two hit wonder" earning back-to-back 50 save seasons before dissipating...

    Chito Martinez hit 13 hr and an .800 OPS one season.   

    JJ doesn’t really belong IMO.    He also had a great year in 2011 playing a 6-8th inning fireman role.    Frankly that was a better year for him than 2013.     He just wasn’t the closer. 

    • Upvote 1

  12. Some plays I’d like to witness by the O’s:

    1.   A straight steal of home.  I’ve seen a couple of double steals, but I’ve never seen an Oriole just make the mad dash and get away with it.

    2.   An unassisted triple play.    Ron Hansen did it for the O’s about 60 years ago.   Time for another.    I didn’t see that one.   

    • Upvote 1

  13. Fangraphs has now graded 20 teams, including the entire AL East.    By their valuation system from last year, we rank 10th out of 20 so far.     As I expected, Tampa is off-the-charts good.    They have 55 prospects ranked 35+ or higher, most of any team graded so far (we have 40, which is still above average).    The dollar value of their system by last year's method is $329 mm if you exclude Wander Franco.       And the reason I excluded him is Fangraphs graded him an 80, the first time they have done that, and so I don't know what an 80 is supposed to be worth.    Last year they valued a 70 grade batter (Vlad Jr.) at $112 mm, so Franco will be valued higher than that.

    Toronto graded better than I expected, slightly behind us at $200.5 mm.   We are at $206 mm; the mean valuation for all 20 teams graded so far is $209 mm, excluding 1/20th of whatever Franco is worth.

    So far the top teams by this methodology are:

    TBR $329mm+ (55 prospects 35+ or better)

    PIT $282.5 mm (42)

    MIA $281.5 mm (41)

    ARI $277.5 mm (47)

    DET $260.5 mm (39)

    NYY $250.5 mm (54)

    ATL $250 mm (27)

    SEA $237 mm (38)

    MIN $228 mm (42)

    BAL $206 mm (40)

    • Thanks 1

  14. 1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Wow, I had no idea that is how it worked.

    Fascinating.

    BTW he led the league in CS% in back to back seasons (76-77 {19% above league average}). 

    Dempsey's career CS% numbers took a hit due to the longevity of his career.  I've never looked into it, but I imagine most catchers get less effective at throwing out runners when they get into their 30's and Dempsey played into his 40's.

    I agree with this.    Of course, Pudge played a similar length of time.    But Bench only really played C through his age 30 season.   Through age 31, Dempsey was at 49% (309 SB, 298 CS); after that, only 31% (461 SB, 209 CS).    But you also have to consider that Bench was bearing a very heavy workload — 1627 games started at C through age 30, compared to 665 for Dempsey through age 31 and 1343 total.    

    • Upvote 1

  15. 1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

    One thing we know for sure, he could throw.  Career 40% CS rate, to include seasons in which he was over 50%.

    You have to compare it to his peers when he was playing.    Dempsey was at 40% in an era when 35% was average.   Bench, 43% when 35% was average.   Pudge Rodriguez, 46% when 31% was average.   Pudge was crazy good.    If you go back to early periods you can find times when the average CS% was over 40%.    For example, Bill Dickey was at 47% when 41% was average.   

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