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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

    Plus, what team is really going to go all in on this season with the expanded playoffs and craziness. Is anyone going to be crowing about being the 2021 "World Champions?"

    Oh, I’d take it.    I don’t hear a lot of Washington football fans who discount their 1983 Super Bowl title despite the 9 game regular season and expanded playoff format.    

    But I don’t see us getting very far regardless of the format.    I’d be delighted to be wrong.   
     

     


  2. I see two stretches last year where the O’s won at least 7 games in a 14 game span.   In fact, they had an 8-6 stretch (games 95-118) and a 7-7 stretch (games 125-138) during a 44-game period last year. But they still only managed to go 18-26 in that period, and the best they did in any 60-game stretch that included those two “hot” streaks was 24-36.    

    • Upvote 1

  3. 11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Larger strikezone.

    That would explain the two strike BA going down league-wide (which it has, .173 to .158).    It doesn’t explain the O’s going from 30th to 2nd.

    I’m mostly going with small sample size.     But some improvement may factor in too.    


  4. 2 hours ago, wildcard said:

    This is not a team that can beat the Yankees on a regular basis but it can contend for a playoff spot.

    That is my take.

    My take is, I don't think whether they end up contending for a playoff spot in a 60-game season where 16 teams are going to make the playoffs is going to tell me anything about whether they are making progress towards building a championship contending squad for some future 162 game season.     I'm happy to have baseball to watch, and of course I am hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle for two months and make the playoffs.    That would be highly entertaining, especially in a year when we were deprived of four months of baseball.    But ultimately what I care about is returning this team to a level where it can win 90+ games over a 162 game season and be a serious threat in the playoffs, not whether they can make an improbable run in this year's flukathon.

    I'm glad Hyde thinks some of our players are better this year than they were last year.     We have a lot of young guys, and I'd hope that some of them would improve with experience.   We'll see what sticks and what is a 14-game hot streak.    Even 60 games won't be a full indicator of what sticks, though.   At the 60-game mark last year, Pedro Severino had a .937 OPS  and Dwight Smith Jr. was on pace for 25+ homers and about 110 RBI.

    • Upvote 2

  5. 15 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Trying to get excited about a fringe prospect....

    And yep, don't give a $#%&.

    Akin has been a much more highly regarded prospect that John Means ever was.    So yep, I do give a $#%&.    We'll see if he has any success as a major leaguer or not, but I definitely want to see him and am very interested to watch how he does.

    • Upvote 1

  6. 1 hour ago, OFFNY said:

     

     

    o

     

    PLEASE keep it the way that it is ??? It only serves to accentuate how far Nick has come. Imagine if Nick actually comes within a 100 or 200 of 3,000 hits someday ........ that would be SOOOOOO cool to see the original title of the thread. 

    It's your thread, and your call, Frank ........ I happen to love the contrast.

     

    o

    We will see.   When I started the thread, I fully expected that he would blow well past 2,000 hits.    After all, he was only in his age 33 season at the time, and still playing very well.     And honestly, 2,500 hits is a far bigger accomplishment - only 101 players have done it, compared to 287 who made it as far as 2,000.   Maybe I'll just start a new thread entirely if/when Nick gets close to that number.     There's no guarantee that he will.


  7. I am a huge Bundy fan, and I hope he has great success in LA.    That said, there is pretty much nothing he could do this season that I would take as conclusive evidence that he has turned a corner.     In the past, he has had some very nice stretches but has had trouble maintaining his stamina over a full season.    There won't be a full season this year, so we aren't going to know how he would have done as the season wore on, no matter how good he is over 12 starts.

    But I really do hope he pitches this well for the whole 60-game season and does well in future seasons.     He's been through a lot and I'd love to see him prove he was able to overcome it all.

    • Upvote 1

  8. 14 hours ago, OFFNY said:

    o

     

    If Markakis finishes his career with 2,501 or more hits, that will be closer to 3,000 than it is to 2,000 ........ and that will be quite the accomplishment, in relation to the OP of this thread.

     

    o

    I think if Nick is still playing next year I will change the thread title to 2,500.   He lost a lot of ground last year with the injury and this year with the shortened season, and I think any shot he had at 3,000 hits has evaporated (I did not think his chances were that good anyway).    But 2,500 would be a great accomplishment and put him in the top 100 all time (with a couple extra hits).     He's fourth among active players (behind Pujols, Cabrera and Cano) and if you look behind him, nos. 5-14 have no real shot at ever getting to where Nick is now.    The first guy who has a shot to pass Nick is Elvis Andrus (1731 hits at age 31), and I would not bet on him doing it.   Here is where Nick was at various ages compared to some other younger guys now:

    35 2355

    34 2237

    33 2052

    32 1889

    31 1728 (Andrus 1731)

    30 1547 (Castro 1631, Altuve 1579)

    29 1370

    28 1198 (Trout 1338)

    27 1073 (Machado 1211, Harper 1078, Bogaerts 1037)

    Note that the players listed still have the rest of this season to add to their totals compared to where Nick was at the same baseball age.    Realistically, it will be at least 2025 before anybody passes Nick's current total.

    • Upvote 1

  9. On 8/4/2020 at 7:57 PM, Il BuonO said:

    It’s really good. Give it a shot. 

    Bosch is definitely my favorite right now, maybe ever.

     

    On 8/4/2020 at 9:41 AM, SteveA said:

    Haven't seen the movie.  Never liked McConaghey much and I just can't picture him playing the character I saw in my mind's eye when I read the book.

     

    On 8/4/2020 at 7:57 PM, Il BuonO said:

    It’s really good. Give it a shot. 

    Excellent movie.    And I wasn't much of a McConaghey fan either before that movie.    His work since that movie has generally been better than in his earlier years where he always seemed to play the same character  (hedonistic smug immature good looking guy).    


  10. On 8/1/2020 at 9:36 PM, eddie83 said:

    There is a seasonality to the virus Mexico was hit after the bulk of US was. It wasn’t a coincidence the southern portion of the US had issues at the same time. The peak of this in the USA was mid April.  

    The link you sent has a fear mongering tone to it. The worst was 3.5 months ago, it isn’t now.

    You had at one point around 1.5M healthcare workers out of jobs and some hospitals shutting their doors. Now anyone who goes in to a hospital is tested. ICU is the best way to judge severity of the virus. The southern states clearly had issues later on. 

    The southern states are all improving.  

    I wouldn't say "all."    But a number are.    I would not say anyplace has been as bad as NY was in April.    We've learned a lot since then, as I would have expected.    We are certainly way worse than we were in late May, which is a shame.     At that point I thought we were a couple of weeks away from having this more or less over with.


  11. On 10/4/2019 at 9:18 AM, Frobby said:

    Nick finished 2019 with 2,355 hits, 136th on the all time list, one behind Carlton Fisk.    Realistic goals for him would be to pass the 2,500 hit mark and get into the top 100 all time (Buddy Bell is currently 100th at 2,514).    I think this may have been his last year as an everyday player, but we’ll see.    As an everyday player those goals would be in reach in 2020 if he stayed healthy.    

    Nick's first ht of 2020 was a walk-off homer.     Hes now tied with Carlton Fisk for 135th all time at 2,356 hits    He's now chasing Allan Trammell at 2,365.    Realistically, Nick probably won't get much past 2,400 hits in 2020, if he gets there at all, with the shortened season.   He'd need 45 hits to get there and the Braves have 46 games left to play.

    • Thanks 1

  12. On 8/6/2020 at 9:48 PM, Can_of_corn said:

    A couple other things come to mind.  Mountcastle could be sick or injured.  He could be having behavioral issues that they need to get ahead of.  Scenarios exist but it's odd.

    One thing seems clear -- it wasn't just a "game the service time" issue.


  13. 42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    I am enjoying the tone change here.  Sounds like we are moving from everyone on this team stinks to if he keep it up we should sign him for 4 years.    Quite a change.

    I certainly don’t think everyone on the team stinks.   I expect the team itself to be pretty awful when it’s all said and done (though I’m hoping to be surprised), but that doesn’t mean everyone on the team is awful.    Alberto was worth 2.9 rWAR last year and this year his job is to back that up and show it wasn’t just a high-BABIP (.318) fluke.    He’s off to a good start offensively and I’ve always liked his D at 2B.


  14. 1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

    Sounds like the rain will stop around 4 PM, but the field will probably still be a mess - seems unlikely they'll get the game in - unless there's some heroics with the draining of the field.  

    Everyone get a bucket!

     

    OPACY has fantastic drainage.     But it will be challenging.   3.5 - 4.5 inches of rain expected from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.      


  15. 4 hours ago, Philip said:

    Most prospects disappoint by definition.

    The question is how much benefit will you get from those who succeed.

    The benefit from a successful pitcher Is greater then that from a successful hitter Because pitching is harder to develop.

    thats why Greinke Verlander etc got such extreme contracts.

    the only risk to drafting pitchers is that they will fail. So you balance that by drafting/finding lots of them. If only one guy from the Bundy trade is a winner, it means 3-4 guys failed, but that’s a good trade.

    Not sure I follow this logic.    Why is Verlander’s contract “extreme?”     There are several batters who have bigger contacts.    It is an unusual year when the best pitcher has more value than the best hitter, measured by Wins Above Replacement, which by definition takes into account how hard it is to develop players above replacement value.

    In fact, the more I think of it, the less logic there is to your argument.  

    An argument that makes more sense to me is that more pitchers are lost to injury, so you have to draft more of them to account for the attrition.   

     

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