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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 2 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

    I don't mean to be a downer but I expect Hayes to play good defense, hit .250/.310 OBP with 9 HR's before getting hurt and missing a large part of the season.

     

    I expect Santander to play good defense, hit .225/.275 OBP with 25 HR and miss about 4-6 weeks with various injuries.

    Wow.   I’d hate to see what you’d predict if you did mean to be a downer.  

    • Upvote 1
    • Haha 1

  2. 1 hour ago, owknows said:

    Boog Powell never won a gold glove. But he posted a better fielding percentage than the eventual 1B Gold Glove winner on several occasions, and was never considered a defensive liability. His scoop is considered to be a significant contributor to many of the GG's won by Robinson, Belanger, and Johnson, Aparicio and Grich

     

    https://gatorrick15.wixsite.com/bmoresportsnest/boog-powell

    The modern metrics have him at -11 Rtot over 16 seasons, so basically average.    That squares pretty well with my recollection.    Not rangy, but decent hands.    


  3. 4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

     

    LF should have very good offensive production.  
     

    Not sure the numbers but my guess is the average LFer is similar to the average everyday DH.

    It is interesting how these splits have varied over the years.   Instinctively, you expect that the more difficult the defensive position is, the less offense the league will have at that position.  But it isn’t always the case.   AL OPS by position last year:

    1B .773

    3B .761

    CF .745

    RF .734

    LF .731 

    SS .727

    DH .719

    C .708

    2B .706

    You’d think it would be easy to do better than .719 at DH, given that you don’t need to worry about defense there at all.   But a lot of guys don’t perform well at bat when they are not playing the field.    So if you have a guy who hits well at DH, there’s pretty good logic to using him there and resting your players completely when they are not in the field, rather than rotating them through the DH spot.  Nunez has shown himself to be pretty comfortable there    

     


  4. 2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Mullins probably isn't on the radar for anyone.  I know he's not on the radar for SG.  He's a 4th outfielder.

    We're obviously going to get into his sample size for 2020 because that's what we do around here.  He hit .271, which was respectable and a .315 on base percentage which is not good.  We also need to factor in that a fair amount of his hits were bunts.  And is that sustainable?  I'm assuming not.  It's not a plan for moving him forward.

    Vavra could be a good get if he can hit and play the position, I have no faith in Hays.

    I agree Mullins is probably a fourth OF/platoon player, but I’m not quite as down on him as you.  10-20 years ago .315 was a bad OBP, but last year league average was .319, so .315 is slightly below average but not awful by today’s standards.    I agree with you that his bunt success rate is probably unsustainable (9 of his 38 hits were bunts and he hit .600 on bunt attempts).    Still, he is very skilled at it and I expect it will always be a significant part of his game.  

    • Upvote 1

  5. 3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Sure..I think Hays is a better CFer than Jones and if he can be an 780-820 OPS guy out there, that’s great.

    But Jammer has him at 840.  That’s kind of what I’m referring to when I say “not much more than that”.

    Right now Hays is my favorite player on the team.   I like his enthusiasm and all-out style of play.    It has its downside viz. exposure to injuries, but it’s fun to watch players who play like their hair is on fire.   

    In terms of what he can be offensively, I think Jones is a pretty good upper limit and aspiration, unless and until Hays is able to refine his plate discipline in a way that Jones was never able to do.   To be fair, Hays has a 6.8% walk rate compared to Jones’ career 4.5%.    But, I think to be as good or better than Jones offensively, Hays will need to get his walk rate in the 8-9% range at least, and get his outside of the zone swing percentage under 35% (he’s at 37.7% for his career, Jones was 41.5%, league average is 30.6%).

    Hays should have good power but I think he’s a little short of Jones in that department.   


  6. 15 minutes ago, Philip said:

    I may be incorrect, but I think having a good eye Is the most valuable part of the hitters repertoire, especially when combined with power. That forces the opposition to give you pitches in the zone, because he knows that if he throws out of the zone, you’re just gonna lay off the pitch.

    Santander has a ~7% BB rate. I don’t know league average, but 7% is not great I don’t think. However, he ALSO has a ~15% K rate, which pretty good(Again, I don’t know league average, but I would imagine that 15% is quite good.)  That indicates that he’s making a lot of contact. I don’t know what his hard-hit rate is, and I think that’s probably important, but I think it’s pretty clear that he is improving and he’s growing and I can’t see any obvious impediments to him reaching some of the lofty goals that have been suggested for him. A good eye means he’s not being fooled, but a low BB rate means that pitchers are still throwing in the zone. As the pitching gets smarter, I do not know how they will react to him, but I don’t think he’s going to be an easier out as time goes on

    Per Baseball Savant, Santander’s hard hit % was in the 38th percentile, so below average.   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/anthony-santander-623993?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

    I think SG is fundamentally right that people should not put too much stock in stats accrued over 37 games.    At the same time, like you I see Santander as a player who is still improving.   

    • Upvote 1

  7. 30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap.

    I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something.

    First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  

    * * *
    Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.

    This was a very good, long post and I agree with it, including Santander needing to prove he can stay healthy.   I just singled out this part to point out that Santander played 141 games between the majors and the minors in 2019, so saying he’s never played more than 93 ML games in a season is accurate but could be misleading when it comes to his health.    He did not have any DL time that year in either the majors or the minors.  Unfortunately, that has been the exception rather than the rule.   But I’m hopeful Santander can stay healthy in 2021, and 2019 is evidence that he’s capable of staying healthy.  


  8. 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

    Yes the BABiP was low and unlucky in 2020 but so what?  Usually, I think that’s important but we are still talking less than 1/4 of the at bats in a full season.  Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

    That being said, he has never had a real high BABIP in his career.  I don’t know if that is a trend or something you gloss over because of the limited number of at bats and SSS in any given season.

    I would think that a low number of at bats is not really a reason to disregard a low BABIP.    To me it’s an indication that the gap is likely to narrow as PA increase, meaning Santander’s BA would rise.

    The other trend that was good for Santander was his K% was easily the lowest of his career.   If he can maintain that rate (15.9%) he should be quite dangerous.   


  9. 18 hours ago, Frobby said:

    I also think .900 OPS is very optimistic for Santander, when you consider that his .890 last year was built on a .315 ISO.    That’s Chris Davis in his best seasons-type power.   There were only six major league qualifiers last year with a .315+ ISO, and five in 2019.   I think Santander has nice power but not at that level.   Anything over .200-.225 would be gravy.    

    Just to elaborate on this, here’s a comparison of Santander’s actual numbers from 2020 compared to his expected numbers based on quality of contact:

    BA .261 vs. xBA .286

    SLG .575 vs. xSLG .510

    wOBA .358 vs. xwOBA .338.

    The gap between his xBA and xSLG (call it xISO) is .224.    For me that’s a more realistic predicter of Santander’s ISO than his actual .314 from last year.    

    The good news in here is that Santander’s xBA is 25 points higher than his actual BA.    Philip pointed out that Santander had a low .248 BABIP, and it looks like at least some of that was due to poor luck.    

    Having looked at all this, I think my projection of .775-.800 OPS was a little conservative and I’d boost it to the .800-.825 bracket.   I continue to think .900 is very aggressive.   At the same time, Santander is still relatively young and inexperienced, so maybe he’ll prove to be better than I expect in 2021.   

     


  10. 3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

    I had a bad feeling about the Parra trade the moment it was made. Trading for a player having a career year and changing leagues is a good way to get that player to return back to his career norms.

    If he had returned to his career norms, that would have been a vast improvement over what he actually did for the Orioles.   He had a .625 OPS during his time here.   


  11. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

     

    Should means that if Santander had a slash line of 280/325/500, hit 25 homers and drove in 85, Wildcard is saying he would be disappointed in that season.

    If I had to guess, 90+% of Orioles fans would sign up for that season for him right now.  That would likely exceed or meet most projections and predictions of him.  Yet Wildcard would say, he should have done better.

    Thats an over the top take to have on him. No one, outside of maybe Santanders family, would say he should do that and if he doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.  
     

    I am expecting him to be in line with what has done in his career with some slight improvements. I think it’s fair to have those expectations.  

    I also think .900 OPS is very optimistic for Santander, when you consider that his .890 last year was built on a .315 ISO.    That’s Chris Davis in his best seasons-type power.   There were only six major league qualifiers last year with a .315+ ISO, and five in 2019.   I think Santander has nice power but not at that level.   Anything over .200-.225 would be gravy.    


  12. 8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    The first pick in the draft cost 8m.   The 15th pick cost about 3.3m.   Spending 12m on that pick is something the Dodgers or Yankee might do.  But not a responible mid market team.   There are teams that have large markets and more money as a result and the way to beat them in not trying to outspend them.   

    Elias is doing the right thing to beat the big market teams.  Better analytics,  player development, sensible trades for prospects,  international signings are all things that will get the O's there.  

    I think to analyze this correctly you have to have a good idea of the excess value of draft picks.    In other words, let’s say a pick at a certain point in the draft on average produces $20 mm in value, and it will cost $12 mm to sign that pick.    That is a move that makes sense.

    Here is a good article on the topic. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/ 

     

     

     

     

     


  13. Anthony Santander has a career slash line of .252/.292/.467.   He was selected in the Rule 5 draft after playing no higher than A+ and struggled during his Rule 5 period split between 2017-18 due to injuries.    He has fared much better since getting called up in 2019, and in 2020 slashed .261/.315/.575.   His season ended prematurely with an oblique injury.

    Austin Hays has a career slash line of .272/.320/.424, comprised of a shaky 2017 debut after being promoted from AA, a strong 2019 performance after a less-inspiring minor league season, and then a .279/.328/.393 performance in a somewhat larger sample this year.   He’s had trouble staying healthy the last three seasons, missing time this year with a fractured rib.

    So what do we get out of these two next year, either in terms of availability or performance?

    I will leave the availability issue to the baseball gods.    Neither player has a single, chronic injury, and I don’t know that they have a greater chance of future injury than any other player.    Hays might, due to his aggressive style of play in the outfield.   But, I’m not going to speculate on that.   

    Hays, I think, has considerably more power than he showed in 2020.    I think his BA and OBP from  2020 (.279/.328) are about what I expect from him, but add 30-50 points of SLG.   So that would put his OPS in the .755-.780 range in 2021.   For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him at .255/.303/.442.   I think those are low on BA/OBP and maybe aggressive on ISO.

    Santander is sort of the opposite - his ISO of .314 last year does not seem sustainable.    Again I think his BA and OBP from last season are pretty realistic.    Put me down for .775-.800 for him, with a little lower BA/OBP than Hays but a bit more power.   Steamer has him at .262/.312/.479, which looks about right to me.    

    if we could get that rate of production and 900+ PA from them, I’d be very happy.   

     

    • Upvote 2

  14. 1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

    Getting tagged as “Mauer with Power” made an impossible standard for Wieters to live up to before his first game. 

    I think I first read the “Mauer with Power” line in Sports Illustrated’s Spring 2010 baseball issue, the year after Wieters debuted.  But the article said he’d been called that in the past, before Mauer hit 28 homers in 2009.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault.si.com/.amp/vault/2010/03/15/the-total-package-rare-bird


  15. 2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

    Granted those are the real results, but I would bet teams evaluate DH candidates against a higher replacement (or position average) level baseline.

    It's a known known that the DH Penalty is real, yet despite the handful of Cruz/Yordan type guys, most teams cycle their regulars there and deem it a partial rest day.  

    Half the teams do, and half don’t, as I documented yesterday.   The O’s didn’t have a primary DH this year; last year they did.   It just depends on a team’s personnel at the time.  


  16. 6 hours ago, Philip said:

    I read your comment about Shaw with great interest, I was also wondering why they would get rid of Nunez, and then bring on board someone exactly like Nunez... Who is also older, ha ha.

    The most likely reason is that they were hoping that Nunez would improve in certain areas, And he didn’t, and now they’ve gotten someone else and they also hope he’ll improve in certain areas.

    To be fair to Nunez, he had his best offensive season in 2020.   Whether that would have stuck over 162 games is anyone’s guess.   He’s been a pretty streaky player during his time in Baltimore.    But as I said much earlier in the thread, it would not surprise me too much if Nunez moved his offense up another level.    I think the odds that Shaw turns out to be as good or better than Nunez are quite low. But then, I don’t think they had Shaw in mind when Nunez was DFA.

    • Upvote 1

  17. Putting it all side by side:

    Baltimore

    Total: 27 players, 254.9 rWAR

    2000-09: 15 players, 153.9 rWAR

    2009-20: 12 players, 101.0 rWAR  

     

    Boston

    Total: 37 players, 458.8 rWAR

    2000-09: 25 players, 364.8 rWAR

    2009-20: 12 players, 94.0 rWAR

     

    New York

    Total: 25 players, 199.5 rWAR

    2000-09: 17 players, 163.9 rWAR

    2010-20 8 players, 35.6 rWAR

     

    Tampa

    Total: 31 players, 325.3 rWAR

    2000-09: 21 players, 267.5 rWAR

    2010-20: 10 players, 57.8 rWAR

     

    Toronto

    Total: 42 players, 257.1 rWAR

    2000-09: 25 players, 151.3 rWAR

    2010-20: 17 players, 105.8 rWAR

     

    We really did a terrible job of drafting in the 2000-09 era, but have held our own in the 2010-2020 era so far.  

     


  18. Finally, the Blue Jays:

    Aaron Hill, 1:13 2003, 24.4 rWAR

    Kevin Pillar, 32:18 2011, 16.0 rWAR

    Noah Syndergaard, 1:38 2010, 15.7 rWAR (FA comp)

    Marcus Stroman, 1:22 2012, 14.7 rWAR

    Yan Gomes, 10:19 2009, 14.0 rWAR

    Sean Marcum, 3:13 2003, 13.4 rWAR

    Adam Lind, 3:12 2004, 12.7 rWAR (FA comp)

    Jake Marisnik, 3:24 2009, 10.9 rWAR (FA comp)

    Ricky Romero, 1:6 2005, 9.9 rWAR

    Aaron Sanchez, 1:34 2010, 8.9 rWAR (FA comp)

    Casey Janssen, 4:16 2004, 7.4 rWAR

    Brett Cecil, 1:38 2007, 6.6 rWAR (FA comp)

    Matthew Boyd, 6:9 2013, 6.6 rWAR

    Daniel Norris, 2:14 2011, 6.2 rWAR (FA comp)

    Anthony DeSciafani, 6:18 2011, 6.0 rWAR

    Ryan Roberts, 18:13 2003, 5.8 rWAR

    Sam Dyson, 4:11 2010, 5.6 rWAR

    Kendall Graveman, 8:9 2013, 5.2 rWAR

    Aaron Loup 9:19 2009, 4.9 rWAR

    Gabe Gross, 1:15 2001, 4.6 rWAR

    Cavan Biggio, 5:26 2016, 4.6 rWAR

    Travis Snider, 1:14 2006, 4.4 rWAR

    Joe Musgrove, 1s:46 2012, 4.3 rWAR

    Jesse Litsch, 24:16 2004, 3.9 rWAR

    Dave Bush, 2:14 2002, 3.6 rWAR

    Ryan Goins, 4:19 2009, 3.4 rWAR

    Ryan Schimpf, 5:19 2009, 3.3 rWAR

    Ryan Tepera, 19:19 2009, 3.1 rWAR

    Bo Bichette, 2:25 2016, 3.1 rWAR

    Mark Rzepcynski, 5:21 2007, 3.0 rWAR

    Brandon League, 2:15 2001, 2.7 rWAR

    Jon Berti, 18:18 2012, 2.3 rWAR

    Eric Thames, 7:17 2008, 2.1 rWAR

    Danny Jansen, 16:9 2013, 2.1 rWAR

    Ryan Borucki, 15:17 2012, 2.0 rWAR

    J.P. Arencibia. 1:21 2007, 1.9 rWAR

    Dustin McGowan, 1:33 2000, 1.6 rWAR (FA comp)

    Chad Jenkins, 1:20 2009, 1.4 rWAR

    Tim Locastro, 13:9 2013, 1.4 rWAR

    Vinnie Chulk, 12:18 2000, 1.3 rWAR

    Danny Barnes, 35:11 2010, 1.1 rWAR

    Danny Farquhar, 10:17 2008, 1.0 rWAR

     

    Total: 42 players, 257.1 rWAR

    2000-09: 25 players, 151.3 rWAR

    2010-20: 17 players, 105.8 rWAR

     

    Tons of quantity here, though the Blue Jays have lacked the big score.   I think Biggio and Bichette may change that, though.


  19. Here are the Rays:

     

    Evan Longoria, 1:3 2006, 56.5 rWAR

    David Price, 1:1 2007, 39.4 rWAR

    James Shields, 16:6 2000, 31.0 rWAR

    Kevin Kiermaier, 31:16 2010, 27.3 rWAR

    B.J. Upton, 1:2 2002, 16.8 rWAR

    Desmond Jennings, 10:3 2006, 13.5 rWAR

    Jason Hammel, 10:2 2002, 12.8 rWAR

    Alex Cobb, 4:3 2006, 12.5 rWAR

    Jeremy Hellickson, 4:8 2005, 11.7 rWAR

    Blake Snell, 1s:52 2011, 11.4 rWAR

    Wade Davis, 3:3 2004, 11.1 rWAR

    John Jaso, 12:1 2003, 10.8 rWAR

    Rocco Baldelli, 1:6 2000, 10.2 rWAR

    Steven Vogt, 12:1 2007, 7.7 rWAR

    Jake McGee, 5:4 2004, 7.4 rWAR

    Brandon Lowe, 3:12 2015, 5.6 rWAR

    Derek Dietrich, 2:29 2010, 5.3 rWAR (FA comp)

    Matt Moore, 8:1 2007, 5.1 rWAR

    Jeff Niemann, 4:4 2004, 4.3 rWAR

    Jonny Gomes, 8:3 2001, 3.5 rWAR

    Tim Beckham, 1:1 2008, 3.5 rWAR

    Delmon Young, 1:1 2003, 3.2 rWAR

    Chad Gaudin, 34:3 2001, 2.4 rWAR

    Joey Gathright, 32:3 2001, 2.2 rWAR

    Elijah Dukes, 3:2 2002, 1.9 rWAR

    Merrill Kelly 8:16 2010, 1.8 rWAR

    Dylan Floro, 13:24 2012, 1.7 rWAR

    Jake Cronenworth, 7:13 2015, 1.4 rWAR

    Ryne Stanek 1:29 2013, 1.3 rWAR

    Adam Liberatore, 21:16 2010, 1.0 rWAR

    Joey Rickard, 9:24 2012, 1.0 rWAR

     

    Total: 31 players, 325.3 rWAR

    2000-09: 21 players, 267.5 rWAR

    2010-20: 10 players, 57.8 rWAR

     

    I'm a little surprised they haven't been stronger over the last decade.


  20. Now the Yankees:

    Brett Gardner, 3:29 2005, 42.8 rWAR

    Austin Jackson, 8:29 2005, 21.9 rWAR

    Aaron Judge, 1:32 2013, 20.1 rWAR

    Ian Kennedy, 1:21 2006, 16.7 rWAR (FA comp)

    David Robertson, 17:28 2006, 15.8 rWAR

    Tyler Clippard, 9:27 2003, 15.5 rWAR

    Mark Melancon, 9:28 2006, 11.8 rWAR

    Dellin Betances, 8:28 2006, 11.2 rWAR

    Phil Hughes, 1:23 2004, 11.0 rWAR (FA comp)

    Joba Chamberlain, 1:41 2006, 7.6 rWAR

    Adam Warren, 4:28 2008, 6.7 rWAR

    David Phelps, 14:28 2007, 6.1 rWAR

    George Kontos, 5:28 2006, 3.8 rWAR

    Shane Greene, 15:24 2009, 3.5 rWAR

    Jordan Montgomery, 4:17 2014, 3.5 rWAR

    Jeff Karstens, 19:27 2003, 3.2 rWAR

    Jake Cave, 6:28 2011, 2.9 rWAR

    Mike Dunn, 33:28 2004, 2.8 rWAR

    John Brebbia, 30:28 2011, 2.5 r WAR

    Caleb Smith, 14:29 2013, 2.5 rWAR

    Zach McAllister, 3:28 2006, 2.5 rWAR

    Tommy Kahnle, 5:30 2010, 2.0 rWAR

    Phil Coke, 26:24 2002, 2.0 rWAR

    Ben Gamel, 10:29 2010, 1.1 rWAR

    James Pazos, 13:29 2012, 1.0 rWAR

     

    Total: 25 players, 199.5 rWAR

    2000-09: 17 players, 163.9 rWAR

    2010-20 8 players, 35.6 rWAR

     

    Not much there,  but then again, they're always drafting low.


  21. Now here's the Red Sox:

     

    Dustin Pedroia, 2:24 2004, 51.6 rWAR

    Mookie Betts, 5:21 2011, 45.2 rWAR

    Jon Lester, 2:16 2002, 44.6 rWAR

    Anthony Rizzo, 6:20 2007, 34.3 rWAR

    Kevin Youkilis, 8:17 2001, 32.4 rWAR

    Jacoby Ellsbury, 1:23 2005, 31.0 rWAR (FA comp)

    Josh Reddick, 17:7 2006, 24.7 rWAR

    Jonathan Papelbon, 4:17 2003, 23.3 rWAR

    Jackie Bradley Jr., 1:40 2011, 17.8 rWAR (FA comp)

    Jed Lowrie, 1:45 2005, 17.0 rWAR (FA comp)

    Clay Buchholz, 1:42 2005, 16.7 rWAR (FA comp)

    Freddy Sanchez, 11:22 2000, 15.9 rWAR

    Justin Masterson, 2:27 2006, 10.1 rWAR

    David Murphy, 1:17 2003, 9.9 rWAR

    Andrew Benintendi , 1:7 2015, 9.7 rWAR

    Travis Shaw, 9:21 2011, 9.4 rWAR

    Kelly Shoppach, 2:4 2001, 8.3 rWAR (FA comp)

    Alex Wilson, 2:28 2009, 5.1 rWAR

    Brandon Moss, 8:16 2002, 5.0 rWAR

    Daniel Bard, 1:28 2006, 5.0 rWAR (FA comp)

    Manny Delcarmen, 2:22 2000, 3.8 rWAR

    Christian Vazquez 9:30 2008, 3.6 rWAR

    Matt Murton; 1:32 2003, 3.3 rWAR (FA comp)

    Brandon Workman 2:7 2010, 3.1 rWAR  

    Cla Meredith, 6:24 2004, 2.9 rWAR

    Hunter Strickland, 18:20 2007, 3.8 rWAR

    Ryan Pressly, 11:20 2007, 7.0 rWAR

    Kristopher Negron 7:27 2006, 1.8 rWAR

    Kason Gabbard, 29:22 2000, 1.8 rWAR

    J.B. Wendelken, 13:23 2012, 1.4 rWAR

    Brian Johnson, 1s:31 2012, 1.3 rWAR

    Tanner Houck, 1:24 2017, 1.3 rWAR

    Noe Ramirez, 3:21 2011, 1.3 rWAR

    Mauricio Dubron 26:7 2013, 1.2 rWAR

    Travis Lakins, 6:6 2015, 1.2 rWAR

    Ty Buttrey, 4:23 2012, 1.1 rWAR

    Jeremy Hazelbacher, 27:4 2009, 1.1 rWAR

     

    Total: 37 players, 458.8 rWAR

    2000-09: 25 players, 364.8 rWAR

    2009-20: 12 players, 94.0 rWAR

     

    They crushed us in the 2000-09 period.    We have a slight edge on them in 2010-20 to date. 

     

     


  22. Here's my 2020 update to the list of top Orioles draft picks in the 21str Century.    BB-ref changed their calculations for rWAR slightly, so  even some  of the retired players saw slight changes in their numbers.    I decided to be very conservative in changing the order of last year's list, so the only player I moved up was Mike Yastrzemski, moving from no. 17 to  no. 14.   I easily could have moved him higher than that, considering he was a 14th round pick.     Another good year for him in 2021 could put him in the top 10.   

    The only new player reaching 1.0 and joining the list is Austin Hays, who debuts at no. 27 but I expect he will be a fast riser.    Hopefully there will be several new additions after the 2021 season.

    It's interesting to note that the entire top 10  were still active as of 2020,  but none of them appeared in an Orioles uniform this season (Trey Mancini is no. 9 but didn't play; the other  9 all played for other teams).     Of the 27 on the list, only Mancini (9), Means (13) and Hays (27)  are currently on our roster.

    1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 39.5 rWAR

    2. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 25.9 rWAR

    3. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.8 rWAR

    4. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.5 rWAR

    5. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR

    6.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 7.1 rWAR

    7.  Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 9.7 rWAR

    8.  Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 11.2 rWAR

    9.  Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 6.6 rWAR

    10.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.8 rWAR

    11. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

    12.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 6.9 rWAR

    13.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 5.7 rWAR

    14.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 5.2 rWAR

    15. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

    16. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

    17.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

    18.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

    19.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

    20.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.3 rWAR

    21.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 3.1 rWAR

    22.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

    23.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

    24.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

    25.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

    26.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

    27.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 1.0 rWAR

    Total: 27 players, 254.9 rWAR

    2000-09: 15 players, 153.9 rWAR

    2009-20: 12 players, 101.0 rWAR

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