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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. On 6/10/2020 at 1:09 PM, Moose Milligan said:

    I understand your want for baseball to be set up like soccer.  But we sit here and curse baseball daily for being old and stodgy and not changing with the times...and that's exactly what's happening here.  It's an old and stodgy sport with old and stodgy results.  

    Good thing for me that I’m old and stodgy.  

  2. 45 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

    Other than the doing nothing vs. doing something aspect that CoC brings up, I think it’s important to frame this correctly. There’s a good chance that a lot of these guys weren’t in full lockdown prior to returning to facilities. 

    Most of the guys popping positive were walking around unaware of having it, showed up for testing then found out they had it. It’s not like there’s some unique baseball outbreak, which is how some in the sports media are positioning it. 

    I don’t see anyone positioning it that way.   1.2% of the players and staff tested were positive, which is a much lower figure than is estimated to exist for the general population.    

    Still, I do think there are reasons why the environment of pro team sports would expose players more than an average person.    There’s inevitable close contact at times on the field while people are breathing hard, the dugout (bench in other sports) and locker room are relatively confined spaces, and there’s a lot of travel involved.     Probably not as bad as working a check out line, but worse than a lot of other jobs.

  3. I am not surprised.    Nick signed with Atlanta for less money than he could have gotten elsewhere two years ago because that’s what his kids wanted him to do.    He’s at a point in his career where he’s financially set, and the happiness of his family is extremely important to him.   This decision might mark the end of his career, as I doubt Atlanta will want him next season with the young outfielders they have, and Nick doesn’t seem that motivated to play for anyone else.     If so, he had a nice run and I’ll be there for sure when he’s inducted into the Orioles HOF.  

  4. 15 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

    In one of the baseball threads there was discussion of the declining death rate (in the context of Florida)

    Florida’s mortality rate has declined from a high of 4.4% on 6/4 to under 2% today.  However the number of cases has doubled i. The past two weeks.  On 6/22, there were 97,291 cases.  Today, there are 200,111.  Death rate has gone down, but deaths have gone up.  570 deaths over the past two weeks compared to 461 the previous two weeks.  

    In fact, 22 of the 50 states had more deaths from June 22-July 6 than June 8-June 22.

    At the end of March, I created a weekly spreadsheet of new cases and deaths for the world, US, NY, Maryland and DC.    I added Texas, Florida and Arizona last week, though I haven’t gone back retroactively for them.   

    Nationally and locally, deaths are at a low point right now, even as new cases are at a high point nationally.   4,144 deaths in the US last week, 75 in Maryland, 9 in DC.   That compares to highs of 18,574 in the US, 449 in Maryland, 82 in DC, all during the second half of April.   But Maryland and DC both had an uptick in new cases last week, for the first time since late May, so we’ll see how things go from here locally.    Nationally I think it’s almost certain that the weekly death totals are going to increase in July, but it’s a matter of by how much.   

  5. 9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

    I think as more people are tested daily, is pushing the mortality rate down.

    It is a combination of many things, including this one.    A few factors:

    1.   As you say, as we detect a greater percentage of the people who have the coronavirus, the percentage of detected cases resulting in death necessarily goes down.

    2.    We have learned a lot about how to treat the disease in the last 3-4 months.    So we are getting better at stopping known cases from becoming fatal.   

    3.    The cases are more spread out throughout the country, so most places that have patients aren’t in a situation where their systems are overwhelmed, as opposed to the early situation in NYC.   There are some places that may be reaching this point now, but they are generally not as populous as NYC.

    4.    The growth rate in cases the last 3-4 weeks has been very large, and the deaths resulting from those new cases haven’t occurred yet.    

    My best guess is we will see more deaths in July than we did in June, but it won’t be proportional to the spike in new confirmed cases we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks.    And hopefully it won’t get to April/May levels.    


  6. “I remember a moment from when we were teammates in Cedar Rapids,” O’Day said. “Mark was like, ‘Hey Darren, l want to throw a flat-ground tomorrow; come out to the outfield early, before batting practice. I want you to tell me if I’ve still got the stuff.’ I went out there and caught him, and he still had it. He had a good four-seamer with late jump — the one that everybody wants now, where it kind of looks like the ball accelerates — and he had a really good changeup as well. Mark was considering being a pitcher again, but then he was able to figure out the hitting part and went on to have a good career.”

    O’Day couldn’t have followed a similar path. Not even close.

    “Casual baseball fans — people who go to the games like social events — sometimes ask me if I’m a good hitter,” said O’Day. “I’m like, ‘No,’ and they say, ‘Why not?’ Then have to explain that it’s two completely different skill sets. They’ll be like ‘Oh, wow. I never really thought of it like that.’ So for those guys — the select few that have have both skill sets — it’s pretty cool to see. They’re unicorns, man.”


    • Upvote 4

  7. 18 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Think about that for a second. The entire dodger minor-league system cost only $200,000, yet the owners refused to step up. 


    14 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

    I don’t think that’s possibly true. That’s 20 guys making $10k for the whole year. The math doesn’t work at all. 

    Definitely not enough to pay all the MiL salaries.    Still, an incredible gesture.   

  8. 1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

    Another one with career earnings in the high eight or nine figures.  Unlike Price, Felix has the ring to chase, but I think he knows that ship has very likely sailed for him.  I imagine Price will have some fence mending to do in that clubhouse next year, if he doesn't get preemptively moved along.  

    My guess is that most players will feel this is a personal decision that each player must make for himself, and that they won’t hold any hard feelings against those who made a different decision than they did.    

  9. 10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Don't know what food has to do with anything.

    ERA+ of 78 and 99 the past two years.  Increased walk rate for three years in a row.  If I'm going to eat my words as @Frobbysaid I would, it'll be because he's out of the AL East.  Look at his results against the division for the past 3 years...by and large, it's not pretty.  

    He serves up dingers at a really good rate if you're the opposition.  I dunno, sometimes he throws a gem but it's quickly offset by a complete disaster.  2018 was forgettable for many reasons, one of which was the game he started against KC and didn't get anyone out but gave up 4 homers in a row.  

    Other than the fact that he was homegrown and we had high hopes for him, I am not sure why his (lack of) production will be missed as I think it can be replaced.  I think the board generally tends to favor guys that come up through our ranks, especially ones with lofty projections.  I don't care that Bundy didn't live up to his hype, most draft picks don't.  I just don't think he was very good and not all of that blame rests on his shoulders, btw.

    The Bundy of 2018 probably wouldn’t be missed.    But if you look at his career, that year is the outlier so far.    I’m not saying he’s an above average starter, but he’s about average and the last time I checked, we did didn’t have a ton of those.   Whoever we replace him with is likely to be considerably worse.   

  10. On 7/1/2020 at 3:52 AM, Satyr3206 said:

    Hey putz, it's the flu.

    I guess you are defining “the flu” in a very broad way.   Fine, but what’s your point?   Here’s an article from a public health expert (who I heard speak last week) about what’s expected this fall when COVID-19 and common influenza hit as the same time.  Clearly he doesn’t see the two as being the same thing.    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767284?guestAccessKey=6e7bf09d-55dd-4bbf-9d37-2bfc4b352828&utm_source=jps&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=author_alert-jamanetwork&utm_content=author-author_engagement&utm_term=1m

    • Upvote 3

  11. 56 minutes ago, atomic said:

    Well people that have already recovered wouldn’t get tested and people that don’t have symptoms don’t usually get tested.   I am not sure what the correlation to people in Florida who got tested today has to do with mlb players current positive rate. 

    Yes, fair enough.   But Florida’s 1 in four right now is WAY above the national average, which is about 1 in 14.   Maryland is about 1 in 20.

  12. Interesting.    Maximum of 60 players per team, so that’s less than 1800 of the 3185 people tested who are players.    Yet, they’re over 80% of the ones who tested positive.    Probably pretty representative of the younger people being less vulnerable and therefore less careful about being exposed.    

    Meanwhile though, I heard that 1 out of every 4 people being tested in Florida is testing positive right now.    So 1.2% (or call it more like 2% among the players) sounds pretty darned good compared to what’s going on in some places.    

    Glad they’re testing.   

    • Upvote 1

  13. On 6/24/2020 at 2:43 PM, SteveA said:

    3) Of course all of the "average" stats will have some outlier numbers.   The Cy Young Winner will likely be 10-1 with a 1.36 ERA.   Someone may hit .400, certainly several people will hit .350+,   There's going to be some incredible cards in next year's Strat-o-matic set.

    Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards estimates the odds of someone hitting .400 over a 60-game schedule at about 3%.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-a-player-hit-400-this-season/

  14. 11 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

    Did Servideo sign yet? Has he agreed to?

    Will you stop interrupting this important conversation about crab cakes?  😎 

    Servideo has not signed yet, to my knowledge.   Hopefully soon.    

    I generally only eat crab cakes when I’m at a pretty nice restaurant.    I’ve never experienced a real lower-end (price-wise) crab cake place.    They don’t really exist in DC or its suburbs, unfortunately.   

    • Upvote 2

  15. 3 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

    I had not remembered it that way. Should've done more research. I guess that's what I get for trusting my memory.

    Morris was 7-1, 2.60 in the postseason prior to his poor run in 1992.   So, he did deserve his reputation for being good in the postseason, but then he undid it.   

    Objectively, he was a very good pitcher but probably a little short of what I’d expect from a Hall of Famer.  But it doesn’t offend me that he’s in there.   

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