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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. The key is not to get suckered into an unwise extension to avoid having the player opt out. The history of those extensions is abysmal, from ARod to Strasburg.
  2. I didn’t know Hays had anything going on physically at the end of the year. He really played well the final 6-7 weeks of the season.
  3. Not a first rounder anymore. It’s a lower pick.
  4. 2016: 85-75, $199.9 mm payroll 2017: 64-98, $118.4 mm 2018: 64-98, $111.5 mm 2019: 47-114, $100.6 mm 2020: 23-35, $88.4 mm (annualized) 2021: 77-85, $72.3 mm Top picks: 1:1 Casey Mize 2018 (debuted 2020; first full season 2021) 1:5 Riley Greene 2019 (AA/AAA in 2021, ETA 2022). 1:1 Spencer Torkelson 2020 (A+/AA/AAA 2021, ETA 2022) 1:3 Jackson Jobe 2021 (DNP in 2021; ETA 2024-25). Younger core players: Akil Baddoo 22 2.1 rWAR in 2021 Jeimer Candelario 27 3.8 rWAR Casey Mize 24 3.3 rWAR Tarik Skubak 24 1.7 rWAR Tyle
  5. Seems like a lot of teams have a guy like Bautista. I just ask that he throw more strikes than Tanner Scott, and he should be serviceable even with his limited repertoire. I assume from his projection as a multi-inning reliever that he’s able to hold his velocity for a few innings.
  6. Will be interesting to see the amount - I’m expecting it to be pretty high, or EdRod wouldn’t have signed so quickly. I’ll guess $85 mm+.
  7. Rhodes will be an interesting follow next year. Let’s see what the O’s can do with him.
  8. Good question. It’s worth noting though that of the OH top 20 so far, only two are already on the 40 man roster (Lowther and Baumann) and only three others (Hall, Bradish, Vavra) need to be added. The other 15 don’t need to be added yet, including 13 of our top 14. So, you could still have a situation where some other team has more guys near the top that it needs to protect than we do.
  9. Frobby

    It figures

    From Fangraphs: There were 63 home run robberies in 2021. Texas Rangers outfielders had six, the most for any team. Baltimore Orioles hitters had six home runs robbed (five of them at home), the most for any team. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-kendall-graveman-learned-to-spin-a-breaker/
  10. My point is, he’s not blaming the Braves. He’s saying he doesn’t like the system that allows the Braves to do what they did.
  11. Anybody who lets a bad call or two derail him isn’t much of a pitcher. There’s several every game and pitchers just have to deal with the ones that go against them and take advantage of the ones who go their way. Hopefully this year, if he returns to the bigs, he’ll do better than an 8.07 ERA in 54.2 IP. That’s abysmal.
  12. This happened Thursday and nobody even noticed. MiL deal, of course. And, he’s been up to Driveline for some analysis. https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/11/watkins-on-re-signing-with-orioles-and-new-training-plan.html
  13. Have to agree with C_o_c. Bundy’s homer-proneness is not a function of pitching in Camden Yards, and he’s no less likely to be successful here as anywhere else. His career ERA at OPACY is 4.50, compared to 4.72 overall. At this point, after the season he just had, it’s more a matter of whether he can be successful anywhere.
  14. First of all, I’m a huge Dylan Bundy fan, and I wish him all the success in the world. However, we’d need to consider that from May 8 to the end of his season on August 24, Bundy pitched to a 7.41 ERA, whereupon he was shut down with shoulder soreness. His FIP over that time was 6.72. Knowing Bundy’s injury history, I can’t see signing him to a major league deal. Wouid I be interested in a Harvey-like make good MiL deal? Maybe.
  15. For me that’s the most interesting question, who outside the top 20 could be in next year’s top 10? I’d really love it if a pitcher emerged. Raul Rangel? Listed at 6’3”, 150 pounds, there’s a guy who with a good diet and exercise program might suddenly pop.
  16. What’s interesting about that is (1) pitcher fWAR rests much more heavily on FIP than it does on ERA, hence you get results like Ubaldo being worth 1.7 fWAR in a year when he carried a 5.44 ERA; and (2) fWAR for catchers weighs Fangraphs’ framing metric very heavily.
  17. His “big half season” was 37 games. It’s silly to base anything on that. We were so desperate to talk baseball by the time they started playing in late July, we were clutching at straws. Santander had a 37-game stretch this year where he had a .285/.340/.577 slash line. Did anyone even notice?
  18. Time for an update on this, 1 short season and 1 full season later. Here are guys who’ve moved up a notch, or entered the Horse club. 40+ rWAR DeGrom, Price. DeGrom still looking like he might get to 50+, but Price about done. Two years ago I thought Strasburg might get into this category or beyond, now that looks questionable 30+; Cole, Lynn. Cole (30) doesn’t surprise me, Lynn (34) does. 20+: Nola (28), Hendricks (31), Gray (31), Kimbrel (33), Bauer (30), Wheeler (31), Carrasco (34)., At 28, Nola has a good shot to reach 40+ before he’s through. I might have said
  19. Meh. Personally, I’d rather just read the write-ups at this point.
  20. “Rutschman’s inclusion should come as no surprise to anyone who has followed the backstop’s career since the Orioles took him No. 1 overall in 2019. The former Oregon State catcher is considered the game’s top prospect in part because of his defensive work behind the plate, specifically his gamecalling and agility to block pitches. Baltimore pitchers have noted how much they enjoy throwing to Rutschman’s 6-foot-2 target, and it helps his case that he also possesses a plus arm that helped him throw out 27.8 percent of attempted base stealers at Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk this season.”
  21. To me, if the total dollars allocated to pre-FA players was as high or higher than they currently are, there’s no obvious reason the MLBPA should be against this. It’s just a matter of how the player pie gets whacked up, not how big the pie is. But, there’s probably some aspect of the proposal that is designed to prevent or limit salary inflation for that pack of players.
  22. I too was really disappointed Ortiz’s injury halted his season. He’d probably have started 2022 in AAA except for that. It will be very interesting how the O’s handle the developing logjam of middle infield talent at the AA/AAA level. I think Ortiz may be a better defender than Henderson or a Westburg. If so, you might need to leave him as the principal SS if he continues to show some promise with the stick.
  23. I don’t think Boras is denigrating what the Braves did. He doesn’t like the system where half the teams are sellers at the deadline and the league becomes less competitive. He wants an environment where all teams are always trying to win as many games as they can. Not because that’s good for the game or the fans (though arguably it is), but because it’s good for driving up player salaries.
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