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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. I didn’t get to watch, but was following on my phone.   Akin has done better with each successive outing.    He wasn’t intimidated against G. Cole and the Yankees.   Gotta love it.   


  2. Just finished season two of Ozark.  It’s about an investment guy in the Chicago suburbs who’s laundering money for a drug cartel and suddenly has to up and move his family to the Lake of the Ozarks.   Very strong cast with Michael Bateman, Laura Linney and others.    Still have season three to watch.   There will be one more season after that, whenever TV returns to filming.   

    I’m also watching Dead to Me, which I’d describe as a dark comedy.   Christina Applegate and Linda Cartellini star.    Can’t say much without giving away the plot, but it’s about an angry widow whose husband was killed in a hit and run accident.   Almost every episode ends with a pretty good plot twist.    The episodes are only 30 minutes, so it moves along.   

    Both worth watching.  


  3. 9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Bah, you're older than that!

    Much!    How dare they accuse me of being only 40!   And mom’s basement has cable TV, so what’s the problem?

    • Upvote 1

  4. 21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I know Flat Breezy's brother posted here.  And that Hobgood's uncle wasn't a fan of mine.

    Not sure about Heim.

     

    Someone in Parker Bridwell’s family accused me of being 40 years old and sleeping in my mother’s basement.  

    Looks like a relative of last year’s 4th rounder Joey Ortiz is posting here now.
     

     


  5. 4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Great but like I said the day of the draft when you are picking 1-2 and have the largest pool this should be the expectation.

    My concern is if they passed on a 5 win talent for a 2 win talent at 1-2 it is going to be very hard to make that up with the rest of the draft class.

    I think the key to Callis’ evaluation of our strategy is the following sentence: “there was not that big of a gap between 2 and 10.”    If that’s correct, then it’s a great strategy.    If it’s wrong, then it’s a lousy strategy.    I’ll be happy to discuss this again in 2027 or so. 


  6. 2 hours ago, SteveA said:

    You keep saying, over and over again, that they are "ready".   Not saying you are wrong, but how do you know?

    Kremer has 19.1 innings at AAA and an 8.84 ERA there.

    Zimmerman has 38 innings at AAA and a 4.89 ERA there.

    Baumann has never pitched at AAA and didn't get a full season at AA yet.

    Lowther has never pitched at AAA.

     

    I'm not saying these guys aren't ready.   I've never seen them pitch and am not qualified to judge.   But you seem absolutely certain that they are.   What information are you basing that opinion on?

     

    It’s very frustrating that the MiL season wasn’t played this year.   Lots of guys who might have been fully baked and ready, and now either they’re not, or we don’t know if they are.    For me this is the worst thing about the 2020 season, much more than losing 102 major league games off the season.   

    • Upvote 1

  7. 50 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

    And the October upset thing is a double-edged sword. It's like the NCAA tournament. Everyone loves first-round upsets and then misses the top seeds when they're gone. Sure it would be cool for a day if the Giants upset the Dodgers and the Marlins upset the Braves. Would I actually be motivated to watch a Marlins-Giants NLCS where I could name maybe ten players between the teams? Questionable.

    Anything that gives the Yankees one more chance to lose some random short series is good.   

    To make it clear, I am against expanding the playoffs to 16 teams on a permanent basis.   But I have no problem playing around with the concept in this weird, short season.    If there was ever a year to experiment, this is it.    

    As I recall, before spring training there was already a proposal floated to expand the playoffs from 10 to 12, having 3-6 in each league playing in the first round and then letting the top team pick their opponent among the survivors In the second round.    I thought that might be interesting to see.   

     


  8. Jim Callis weighed in on our draft with Melewski today:

    “I thought it was one of the deeper drafts, one of the best drafts,” said Callis. “If I remember correctly, we had Kjerstad ranked 10th on our draft list. I did hear a lot of Baltimore media getting asked, ‘How could they take the 10th guy at No. 2?’ Well, there was not that big of a gap between 2 and 10.

    “Now, they got a great deal. They got him for over $2 million under slot, which allowed them to do some other things. Plus, this guy hit from the start in the SEC and was the best lefty power hitter in the draft on the college side. And I think 6 to 10 were jumbled up for a lot of clubs. You could argue they got the sixth-best player. Because he was going to go lower, they got a great deal. You have to get talent and they took a talented guy at 2 and poured that money into Mayo and Baumler.

    “If they had taken Austin Martin at two, you look at what he got from the Blue Jays, they wouldn’t have saved the money to get those guys. All six of their picks are interesting. You don’t usually get six guys that are close to the top 100 and sign them all.”

    Callis said there were things to like about each O’s selection.

    “Kjerstad is the best lefty power hitter in the draft. Westburg, another SEC performer. Shortstop with power, profiles at third base if he doesn’t stick at short. Real interesting guy. Hudson Haskin, a really gifted center fielder. Didn’t fly under the radar, but in a normal year he might have gone higher. He’s a tooled-up center fielder who as a draft-eligible sophomore played a year and change. So, he wasn’t as heavily scouted as guys who had been around for three years. Anthony Servideo really came on this spring. Had a great spring. Slick fielder and showed a lot more with the bat. Coby Mayo has the power and arm strength you want at third base. And Baumler is a projectable, athletic pitcher who no one thought was going to be signable and the Orioles got him.

    “These aren’t just like interesting guys that go into the top 30. They’re all guys with a good amount of upside. It was a pretty impressive haul.”

    MLBPipeline.com’s new O’s top 30, rates Kjerstad No. 3, Westburg No. 7, Haskin No. 14, Baumler No. 19, Servideo No. 21 and Mayo No. 25.

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/jim-callis-with-props-for-os-draft-plus-other-notes.html

    •  
    • Upvote 3

  9. 1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Worked out well for Hayes' Rookie of the Year campaign.

    Hey, it kept him on our top prospect list last off-season.   That’s what really counts!  😉

    I don’t worry about this stuff.    Far more interested in how the players perform once they’re up, and whether they stay healthy.  


  10. Just now, Can_of_corn said:

    That's hilarious.  Have we seen someone move up like that in the prospect rankings after getting promoted to the majors before?

    Assuming that the standard for rookie status is the same following this short season as it has been for normal length seasons, it’s going to be touch and go whether Mountcastle loses his rookie status by the end of the season.   He’s on pace for 135 PA if he plays every remaining game, 129 and below is the cutoff for rookie status., He’s played in every game since his call-up, though he entered late in Game 1 of yesterday’s doubleheader.   I’m hoping the O’s sit him twice so he ends up at 127 or so, just so I can watch you go ballistic.  


  11. Jim Callis weighed in on our draft with Melewski today:

    “I thought it was one of the deeper drafts, one of the best drafts,” said Callis. “If I remember correctly, we had Kjerstad ranked 10th on our draft list. I did hear a lot of Baltimore media getting asked, ‘How could they take the 10th guy at No. 2?’ Well, there was not that big of a gap between 2 and 10.

    “Now, they got a great deal. They got him for over $2 million under slot, which allowed them to do some other things. Plus, this guy hit from the start in the SEC and was the best lefty power hitter in the draft on the college side. And I think 6 to 10 were jumbled up for a lot of clubs. You could argue they got the sixth-best player. Because he was going to go lower, they got a great deal. You have to get talent and they took a talented guy at 2 and poured that money into Mayo and Baumler.

    “If they had taken Austin Martin at two, you look at what he got from the Blue Jays, they wouldn’t have saved the money to get those guys. All six of their picks are interesting. You don’t usually get six guys that are close to the top 100 and sign them all.”

    Callis said there were things to like about each O’s selection.

    “Kjerstad is the best lefty power hitter in the draft. Westburg, another SEC performer. Shortstop with power, profiles at third base if he doesn’t stick at short. Real interesting guy. Hudson Haskin, a really gifted center fielder. Didn’t fly under the radar, but in a normal year he might have gone higher. He’s a tooled-up center fielder who as a draft-eligible sophomore played a year and change. So, he wasn’t as heavily scouted as guys who had been around for three years. Anthony Servideo really came on this spring. Had a great spring. Slick fielder and showed a lot more with the bat. Coby Mayo has the power and arm strength you want at third base. And Baumler is a projectable, athletic pitcher who no one thought was going to be signable and the Orioles got him.

    “These aren’t just like interesting guys that go into the top 30. They’re all guys with a good amount of upside. It was a pretty impressive haul.”

    MLBPipeline.com’s new O’s top 30, rates Kjerstad No. 3, Westburg No. 7, Haskin No. 14, Baumler No. 19, Servideo No. 21 and Mayo No. 25.

    https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/jim-callis-with-props-for-os-draft-plus-other-notes.html

    • Upvote 3

  12. 47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Yep...I think the number is usually around 50% of first rounders even make the majors.  It’s why you can’t really call DJ a bust.  He did get there at least.

    That being said, there has obviously been some serious ineptitude by the Orioles scouting and PD staff over the last 25 years.  This, of course, isn’t news to anyone.

    The success of any franchise is always going to be based on the foundation of the players you develop, not the ones you buy elsewhere.  
     

    For a farm system that wasn’t ranked high from 2012-2026, the Os got a lot of their home grown talent and those whom they traded for when they were very early in their careers.  Rankings and all of that don’t matter if you are producing.  Right now, the system is ranked about as good as I have ever seen it but it means nothing if they don’t perform.

    Notable home grown debuts 2012-16: Machado, Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Joseph, C. Walker*, Givens, Davies*, Rodriguez*, Drake*, Mancini, Hart, Bridwell*.

    * Either debuted with another team or was traded before providing much value to the Orioles.   


  13. 43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    All of that doesn't mean much if it's not in context.  Many times I've pointed out that Bundy and Gausman are actually above-average #4 overall picks.  There have been about 50 drafts with enough information to judge, and Gausman and Bundy are something like the 15th and 16th-best of the lot.

    So either the O's didn't fail, or you have to conclude that 80% or 90% of all high draft picks are failures.  You can take your pick.

    You want a real kicker... Brian Matusz had just about an average career for a #4 pick.

    All this is true, and yet it’s undeniable that the O’s have gotten below average yield out of the draft over the last 20ish years, despite picking high most of the time.   But we don’t know yet what the results of Elias’ player development regime will be, and to some extent, the results of even the Duquette regime’s drafting and development are still unfolding.   

    Here’s a thread I did on the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st century, which also compares our draft yield with the other teams in the AL East.   Through 2016, we’d gotten the least WAR from the draft of the 5 teams, though we’d done pretty well from 2010 forward.   I’ve updated the “best Oriole picks” part of the thread every year, but one of these days I need to update the comparison with the other four teams.  

    https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26963-ranking-the-best-orioles-draft-picks-of-the-21st-century/#comments

    • Upvote 1

  14. I don’t see that I made a prediction in this thread, but here’s what I said in another thread:

    Overall, I don’t see that a fluke scenario where we play .400+ baseball for 60 games has much chance to occur.    It hasn’t happened any time in the last two years, and I think the talent level on this year’s team is probably the lowest it’s been when you factor in the Villar and Bundy trades and Mancini’s illness.     So, put me down for 20-40 or worse.  

    Looks like I’ve got an excellent chance of being wrong.   

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