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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Any thoughts on Maverick Handley or Andrew Daschbach? Is Handley’s defense as good as some have claimed, and does he have an eventual possible path to the majors despite a light stick? Daschbach had an .800+ OPS at both Aberdeen and Bowie, though his BA at Bowie was low and he got to .800 OPS with walks and power. Pretty high whiff rate at both levels.
  2. This is all great, and I do expect Rutschman to develop into a leader. I still would say it’s preferable to have a veteran catcher around during his rookie year as the second catcher. There are nuances to the major league game that you aren’t going to learn in college or the minors, and sometimes it’s best to watch someone who’s done it, rather than having a coach talk to you about it. I’m not saying it’s a must, but I’d prefer it to teaming Rutschman with another inexperienced C.
  3. I expect Elias to do certain things that resemble what Tampa does, do certain things that resemble what Houston does, etc. But in the end, SG is right, Elias is building his own model based on this team’s circumstances and his own beliefs about what will work best in that situation. I do not expect him to make large plays for high priced free agents this winter. He’s said nothing to suggest that he will, so I am assuming he won’t. We can all debate whether that’s the right strategy, but in terms of what will happen, that’s my expectation. One thing I like about the DeJon
  4. I’m talking about the data from the 2021 season. It shows he was better on non-fastballs than fastballs, though he was pretty good on everything. But, it doesn’t seem that getting more fastballs would put him at an advantage.
  5. I am seeing .929 at Bowie in September, not .976. Either way, I agree he’d probably get promoted to Norfolk before June 1 if he did that at the start of next year. But let’s not forget that his overall OPS at Bowie was .752 and we should not just assume that in 2022 he’ll start the year as hot as he was over three weeks at the end of the year. If he does it, great. Once he gets to Norfolk, we’ll see how it goes. Neustrom went from .831 at Bowie to .748 at Norfolk; Stowers went from .938 to .773. Rutschman didn’t have any significant drop, but he’s a horse of a different color
  6. If I understand Fangraphs’ pitch data correctly (and I’m not sure that I do), I think Mullins was actually weaker on fastballs than on other types of pitches, though he generally did well against all types last year.
  7. Yeah, I’m not sure why MLBTR thought DeJong would be available.
  8. Wildcard - whether or not you believe generally that players are affected by “lineup protection,” I don’t think it really applies to Mullins. He’s at the top of the lineup and nobody really pitches around the leadoff hitter, especially one who’s a base stealing threat.
  9. Austin Martin was pretty highly ranked. Moancada was highly ranked when he was traded. I don’t expect Mullins to draw a prospect of that caliber.
  10. I’m interested whether you’ve heard anything about Junior Lara, who did well in the DSL after getting a late start. Also, I’m curious what went on with Elio Prado, who was acquired in the Cashner trade, didn’t play this season, but did attend Fall instructs I believe. I know you won’t have seen either one, but I wonder if Koby Perez had anything to say about either of them.
  11. I’ll be very surprised if Westburg is in the majors at any point in 2022. I’d certainly hope to see him in 2023. I don’t think that necessarily impacts a decision on DeJong, however. We have three holes in our infield and Westburg can fill one when he’s ready regardless of whether DeJong is here. And, we also can trade DeJong away when our prospects are ready. I’m not necessarily advocating that we pursue DeJong, but I don’t think Westburg is a reason not to do it.
  12. One thing to appreciate is that Mullins’ 2022 season has a lot of value. He’s only going to make $600 k or so (unless the rules change), and he should be worth a lot more than that. Once that season is over, you can’t get something of value for it. So, you have to consider whether it’s worth it to keep it. For me, I just think that we should know what other teams would be willing to give up for Mullins now. Nobody says we have to pull the trigger. Sure there’s risk in trading him. There’s also risk in not trading him. And to evaluate that risk, you need to know what his mark
  13. Well, I definitely don’t assume that Mullins will post a 4-5 WAR season. If he did, I think that would increase his trade value significantly compared to what it is now, even though he’d be under team control for one less year and his pre-Arb years would be over. But let’s say he has a 2.5 - 3 WAR season. Then I think his value is probably down compared to where it is now. Looking at Mullins’ 2021 season, in the first 81 games he was worth 4.0 rWAR and had a .941 OPS; in the second half he was worth 1.7 rWAR had an .811 OPS. So do you think the “real” Mullins is the first half
  14. I would say you greatly overrate Mullins. I do like him, and am not in any big hurry to trade him, but I’d always be willing to listen.
  15. One idea floated in this article is trading for Paul DeJong, who the article compares to JJ Hardy. DeJong is under a long term contract that pays 2/$15.3 mm in 2022-23 and then has team options at $12.5 mm and $15 mm in ‘24-25. DeJong had a down year in 2021, .197/.284/.390 in .113 games, good for 1.6 rWAR. For his career, he’s at .241/.312/.443, 12.9 rWAR. He’ll only be 28 years old next season, but the arc of his career has kind of been pointing south: his year by year OPS’s have been .857, .746, .752, .671, .674. It is suggested that it would not take much in return to acqu
  16. Not the greatest catcher I’ve ever seen, but I thought he was overly maligned on OH. He got off to a bad start last year both offensively and defensively but improved as the year went along, but got little credit for it. I wish him the best of luck in Milwaukee.
  17. So, I'm back to drilling down on the 1998-2005 drafts to study what constitutes a good draft. There were 75 drafts in that 8-year span that produced 30+ WAR. So, that's the top 30% or so of all drafts. I looked at all of them to see how many players with 10+ WAR were drafted in those drafts. In only seven of the 75 was a team able to draft three players who produced 10+ WAR. The other 68 were evenly split, 34 with two 10+ WAR players, 34 with only one 10+ WAR player (who, in most cases, was worth 30+ WAR by himself, carrying the team total to 30+). All in all, there were 49 dr
  18. Assuming that the service time rules don’t change, you’re probably right.
  19. The thread title says 2023 but I think you mean 2022. I like the convention of listing the players alphabetically by first name. The Abu Dhabi phone book is organized that way. The “Ahmed” and “Mohamed” listings take up 2/3 of the phone book! Poor Adam Hall can’t even make the top 49. 😢
  20. I’m fine with stretching out Wells in spring training and letting him compete for a starting spot. May the best five men win.
  21. Why single out Roch? I’d expect more from the beat writers who don’t work for the team’s media affiliate. And anyway, the team is never really going to explain why they protected player X rather than player Y, because there is no upside in publicly critiquing the flaws of player Y. At best all you are going to get is some generally complimentary statements about player X. They are never going to give a specific enough answer to actually tell us anything.
  22. Nice report, D! I’m with you on the command issue. Vespi’s 26, not 22. I’m not saying he can’t make a major league roster, but I don’t see an impact reliever here.
  23. But, the dingers! I don’t think we know yet exactly how good a hitter Mountcastle will become. Right now, I’d say his upside is a slightly better version of Trey Mancini. His downside is a slightly worse version of Trey Mancini. Mancini: .271/.333/.472, 115 OPS+ Mountcastle: .270/.324/.488, 117 OPS+ Mountcastle compiled his numbers at 23-24. Mancini played a few games at 24 and had his first full season at 25. For that reason, I’d guess Mountcastle will end up being the better of the two. A lot depends on whether he can control the strike zone a bit more as he mat
  24. Maybe, but not because Vespi pitched one good inning one day. I don’t really understand the Gillaspie move. For me, what distinguishes good pitchers from AAAA guys is being able to perform consistently. The guys who look great one day and clueless the next are a dime a dozen. That’s how I see Gillaspie. But that’s not to say that teams won’t claim the inconsistent guys hoping that they can fix them or that something will click.
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