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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. 5 hours ago, Philip said:

    I appreciate the info, but didn’t Baumann have a serious injury? One that required one of those “we expect he’ll be ready for ST and he won’t need surgery” statements?

    He was shut down but they’re saying it’s not too serious.   If I were a team that liked him, I wouldn’t let the injury risk deter me.   They can always give him back, or DL him like we did with Santander and drag out his rehab in a way that gives him plenty of MiL time before he has to serve out his “full season” in the majors. I’d be shocked if Baumann isn’t protected.  

  2. Guys who could be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster:   Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mattson, Hanifee, Pop.   (There’s a few others who have no risk of being picked.).  How many of those get added determines how many need to be removed (more or less; right now we have 20 pitchers on the 40 man and I’d expect it to stay at about that number).   

  3. 3 hours ago, thezeroes said:

    A TOR to me is one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.  Some teams may have more than two of these while some have none.

    An ACE would be the top twenty of those 60 pitchers IMO.

    I’m a little stricter.   I want a TOR to be worthy of a top 2 spot in a decent rotation over at least a few years.    Not that he has to perform to no. 2 standards every single year, but most of the time.   When I think of a TOR, John Lackey and AJ Burnett come to mind.    Maybe a little lower down than that is still TOR.

  4. On 8/27/2020 at 8:30 AM, Frobby said:

    30 games isn’t much, but for this year it’s the midpoint, so let’s take stock.   

    14-16 is certainly better than most expected, but it’s not “contention” so far as I’m concerned.    Over a 162 game season, a .467 winning percentage gets a team 75-76 wins.    And I’d be lying if I said I thought this team could maintain that pace over 162 games.

    Let’s look at how we got here.   The offense has performed extremely well.   4.8 runs per game is 6th in the AL; .764 OPS is 5th.    Do I think it’s sustainable?   Frankly, no.   The offense has been carried by 5-6 hot starts, and already some of those guys (Ruiz, Alberto) are starting to come back to earth.    I do think there are other guys who will have their turn to get hot, but on balance,  the team has overperformed on offense.    

    As to the pitching, our 4.77 ERA ranks 10th.    That’s a huge improvement over last year, and frankly, I expected some improvement over last year’s historically bad performance.    But I feel we’ve been aided a lot by having expanded rosters, adding more arms to the bullpen.   Our starters are averaging 4.3 innings per start, and in a normal season that would destroy a bullpen.   In fairness, this is going on all over the league, which is averaging only 4.6 IP per start.    But it works to the O’s advantage due to the mediocrity of our starting staff (5.37 ERA, 0.62 over league average).    The bullpen has been credible, posting a 4.20 ERA (0.15 over league average) and converting 2/3 of its save opportunities (right on league average).     I think the O’s will continue to show improvement over last year’s pitching, though they may slip a little.    

    One area I think can improve is the defense.    Iglesias’ injuries have cost a lot of stability in the infield, so if he can return and stay healthy that will help a lot.    Ditto with Hays in the OF, which would allow the O’s to use Mullins more flexibly.   Dwight Smith is gone and that’s an improvement right there.    

    Overall, I think this team has overperformed, and is likely to slip further back over the next 30 days even if no trades are made (and I do expect some trades that will weaken our current roster, most likely in the bullpen).    But, I do see some improvements over last year that are encouraging for the longer term.  I’ll wait until the “full” 60 games are played to make a better educated guess on that, however.   

    If I had to guess our final record, I’d say 25-26 wins.  

    Well, my preseason win prediction was too low, but my midseason prediction of the final record was on target. 

  5. 3 hours ago, wildcard said:

    So my thoughts on SSS  will be just impressions from now on.

    Another thing I’ll say about this: it’s one thing to look at a relatively young, inexperienced player and give impressions based on watching them in an SSS.    It’s another to get excited about a player who over a short period of time has exceeded his typical performance over a much longer period.    And I am not saying that short term performance never signifies long term improvement or growth.    But often, in that situation, a hot streak is just a hot streak. 

  6. 3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    The way I look at it, you have TOR starters and aces.  I think what you are describing is an ace.

    Means won’t be an ace...he isn’t the elite of the elite.

    But he can be a TOR guy depending on a few factors.

    I do think it’s fair to question whether he can throw 200 innings.  I think 170-185 innings is more realistic.

    I agree, unless and until he proves otherwise.

  7. 17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    So what you guys are saying is the SSS is only meaningful when you are evaluating it.  Not when I do.

    No.  I don’t think this year’s SSS is all that meaningful, nor was last year’s.    I’m just giving my impressions of how he looked, not trying to draw any conclusions about what it means for the future.    And I wish we had a bigger sample to discuss, but we don’t.   

  8. 30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Two issues I see for Means.

    He seems to get dinged up, he's missed time in both 2019 and 2020 with minor injuries.  You generally consider a TOR guy to be durable.

    He doesn't go deep enough into games.    This is 2020 I'm not expecting him to throw a dozen complete games but a TOR guy needs to eat some innings and Means hasn't shown that yet.

    Too soon to know about the first issue.  His minor league track record was very good: 27, 27, 26 and 28 starts in a MiL environment where 28 is basically the max over a 140 game season.    

    I take your point about getting deep into games.   I was watching in the 6th, Means still working on a no hitter at the time and Garceau mentioned he was at 93 pitches.    How does your pitch count get that high when you’ve allowed one baserunner and still working in the 6th?   Still, TOR innings per start seems to be a moving target these days.  I count 8 pitchers this year who’ve made 10 starts and thrown 6+ innings per start.   There’s only 18 pitchers in MLB who qualify for the ERA title!  (That does not include innings from yesterday or the upcoming games today, so that number will increase, but still...)

  9. To me, Hunter Harvey never looked that good this year.    Velocity was good but movement seemed flat, and secondary stuff almost non-existent.    His ERA was good until allowing a 3-run homer yesterday (only two runs were earned), but he just hasn’t looked as good.   Fewer strikeouts, more hard contact, less late life on his pitches.   

  10. 7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Previous years record is the tiebreaker.

    Not sure how we can get ahead of Detroit then?

    We won’t have a tie with Detroit because they won’t play 60 games.    If we lose today and they either win or don’t play due to weather, we finish worse.   

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  11. Good news/bad news for the Braves on this trade:

    1.  Good news: the Braves won every game Milone started for them.

    2.  Bad news: Milone only started three games for them before going on the DL.    He allowed 7 runs in 2.1 innings (Braves won 12-10), 1 run in 4 innings (Braves won 7-1), and 8 runs in 3.1 innings (Braves won 29-9).    

    Still awaiting the identification of the two PTBNL from this trade.   

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  12. 22 hours ago, fansince1988 said:

    This is a good site for tracking the race to the bottom:


    Can someone explain to me what the tiebreakers are?    Right now it seems we could finish tied with Boston, Arizona, Kansas City or Washington.   It appears that we “win” any tiebreaker with Arizona, though I don’t know why.    Previously, ties were broken looking at the previous year’s standings, in which case we’d win all ties with these teams and pick no lower than 6th.    

  13. Watching Means these last few games, there’s little he doesn’t have in his repertoire now.    His fastball was consistently 95 mph, with good riding action.    He’s reacquired his changeup that we saw all last year.    And his curve ball is now becoming a weapon.   The slider is still a work in progress, and he hung one tonight that cost him for a homer.    It was his only real mistake all night.   

    So my question is, is this former fringe prospect becoming a top of rotation starter before our eyes?    I realize his overall numbers this year were just so-so, but he’s been damned impressive down the stretch.    I’m really intrigued by what he might do next year.  

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  14. 1 hour ago, accinfo said:

    I thought that also but I also expect some kind of work stoppage the following year.  I think the owners are going to dig in this time to get a salary cap.  If that happens and they don't play 162 games that could be a significant savings on Davis's contract.  I can see Davis spending most of the 2021 season on the DL and then see if what happens in 2022.

    I don’t know what the odds of a work stoppage are in 2022, or how long a stoppage would last, but I wouldn’t keep Davis around for 2021 based on that possibility.    JMO.

  15. 1 hour ago, ThomasTomasz said:

    We desperately needed people brought to fix things.  The "Oriole Way" and keeping so many guys in coaching and development positions from our past was causing stagnation for all of the time of the dark ages, and even during our success from 2012-2016.  

    Look no further than our pitching development.  No TORP's since Mussina were developed unless you want to count Erik Bedard (and it's an argument I'm inclined to agree with.). But that's one guy, in 30 years, despite a lot of high draft picks spent on pitchers.  Something in the warehouse had to change, and it looks like that change finally happened. 

    I’m impressed with the crew that Elias has brought in, and am very hopeful that they will have success.

    I don’t completely agree, however, that there have been a lot of the same people running the organization before now.    Every GM we’ve had here over the last 20 years has brought in a lot of his own people and also kept some.   For example, a couple of years ago Duquette hired John Wasdin as minor league pitching director.   He reportedly had a lot of input into Duquette’s last couple of draft classes in which we picked up guys like Hall, Rodriguez,  Lowther, and Baumann, and was changing a lot of the teachings about pitching in our MiL system.    Elias came and brought in his own guy (Chris Holt), which is more than fine, as Holt appears to be doing an excellent job.   But it’s not as though the guy he replaced was some hidebound Orioles Way guy.   I could cite you other examples of guys Duquette brought in who had little or no Orioles connection.    

    I do think our new staff is really on the cutting edge, though.    Hopefully it will yield good results.  

  16. 17 minutes ago, weams said:

    On base machine. Joey Votto. 

    Well, I don’t think that’s likely.   Right now his walk rate is 8.4%, which is high compared to his MiL rate of 4.6% but a little below major league average of 9.2%.     Honestly, given his MiL track record, I’d be pretty happy if he was able to sustain that 8.4% rate he’s at now.   Votto, meanwhile, has a career walk rate of 16.0%.    

    That said, Mountcastle’s overall slash line at 23 (.333/.389/.504) compares pretty well to Votto’s (.321/.360/.548).   But although Votto didn’t walk much in that first season (in which he played 24 games), his MiL walk rate of 13.4% foretold that he’d walk a lot in the majors.     

    In short, I think Mountcastle will be a very good major league hitter, but I doubt he’ll be as good as Votto, and I certainly don’t expect him to put up OBP numbers like Votto.  

  17. https://art19.com/shows/baltimore-orioles-inside-the-yard-podcast/episodes/803739fb-f670-422e-acac-c3a486bf341a

    About 17 minutes long.    Not a ton of quotable quotes, but well worth the time and here’s a few tidbits:

    Says the most important characteristic for an analyst is a passion for baseball     The hours are long and the pay in the industry less than other industries, and it really hurts to have analysts who stay for a year or two and then move to another industry.   So passion for baseball is key.

    The O’s get about 1,000 resumes every time they post a job opening in their analytics group.     

    There are about 400 analysts throughout baseball.    

    He’s very happy with where the O’s analytics department is now.    You don’t get the impression he’s still playing catch-up.

    He watches what other teams are doing and really respects the work Tampa does, especially on defensive positioning.   

    Talking about the new data he gets, including Trackman, he mentioned two things I’ve never heard of before: Hawk-Eye, and Continuous Player Tracking.    I looked them up and think it’s all one system baseball has introduced:



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