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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Santander announced at MVO

    The right choice IMO.    Congrats to him.    I hope his strong performance in a relatively short period this year carries over into 2021.

    Santander has now played just a little more than a full season’s worth of games (176) and his 162-game average is 29 HR, 91 RBI to go with his career .759 OPS (which includes his two partial Rule 5 seasons).     


  2. 1 minute ago, Philip said:

    Did we get an above average return for Castro? Iglesias’ age is a bit of a concern, but 31 isn’t THAT old. I’d expect he’d bring more for various reasons.

    Castro is under team control for 2 more years after this one, plus he was traded at the deadline and so played almost half of this short season for the Mets.   I think one year of Iglesias at $3.5 mm is about as valuable as 2+ years of Castro at whatever Arb salaries he earns (he was scheduled for $1.05 mm this year before COVID cut the season short, and I’d guess earns $2.5 - 3 mm next year and $4-5 mm in 2022 depending on performance).


  3. 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    If the Os needed a SS and were contending, I’m not sure he would be the first guy on my list.

    That being said, I think you can justify a top 15ish prospect and perhaps a lower level guy for him especially if are a team that has budget concerns.

    This is about what I had in mind.  


  4. 1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

    Similar to Hunter Harvey, this is the main problem with counting on Hays. I really think he has the talent to be a solid every day major league player, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy over an entire season. He's yet to do that and wasn't even able to get through this mini 60 game season. 

    Technically, he did stay healthy throughout his great MiL season and major league call-up in 2017, playing in 148 games between the minors and the majors.    But he’s missed significant time with injuries every other season, including the year he was drafted (2016) and 2018-20.   

    Though he has been oft-injured, he’s Ripken-like compared to Harvey.
     


  5. 1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    Even if you believe that his last three years (308 games) is his new established level that makes him about a 2.5 win player.  How much could you expect in return for one year of a 31-year-old, 2.5-win player making $3.5M?  

    So, $20 mm of value at a price of $3.5 mm?    Yes, I think you could get a decent return for that from a team that has real problems at SS.   Maybe equivalent to what we got for Castro?


  6. 4 minutes ago, bobmc said:

    Yes - kudos to you for reminding us what you predicted.  So I guess we "blame" BABIP, SSS, COVID19, team chemistry, youthful hubris, no hooch on the road 🥰, etc. for our record.  I was hoping to "lose out" but I have to admit, last night's eruption was exhilaration and even with a 12 run lead I had to watch to the end because Sulser, Hess ........

    I will never be able to bring myself to root for the team to lose games to improve their draft position.    It’s just not in my DNA.    But when they do lose, I console myself with the thought that at least they improved their draft position.   

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  7. 58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    I was thinking the same thing last night.  A good weekend and he may be able to get his OPS close to 800.  

    Shame he missed that time.

    For all the love Mullins is getting, he is still a sub 700 OPs guy with good but not great defense.  Hays should still be the starter in CF from day 1 and I think he will be.  

    Agree Hays should be the starter.   As to defense, I’d put Mullins’ ability to get to and catch the baseball in the “great” category, Hays more in the “very good” category.  But Hays has a plus arm and Mullins has a minus one.   So overall, I think it’s about a wash as to who’s the better defensive CF, and Hays is the better hitter.    

    I think we’ll be seeing a lot of Mullins as a defensive replacement late in games, and occasional starts vs. RHP.    


  8. 39 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

     

    Don't the Orioles owe the Nationals $99 million based on the results of the MASN lawsuit? Maybe they're trying to pocket as much money as possible in order to make those payments in the future.

    It’s MASN that owes the money, not the Orioles.   But I forget right now if MASN overdistributed to the Orioles based on the old formula and will have to claw it back, or whether MASN was sitting on the money, or a little of both.   

    Edit: went back to a MASN thread I started last December that reported that the O’s were over distributed about $69.6 mm that would have to be paid back to MASN if the award is not overturned on appeal.   I’ve looked for information on the status of the appeal and found nothing helpful.    It looks like the case is on some kind of calendar call for Oct. 1, but I can’t tell what it is.   
     

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  9. 6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Pretty close to what I expected.

    Rebuilds always have the side effect of dumping money into the pockets of ownership.

    I am fine with the team profiting from payroll cuts during times when the team is bound to be bad/mediocre, so long as they spend In times when it will help their team to contend.    I’m just surprised that non-player expenses aren’t up by, say, $5-10 mm.   The O’s already were dead last on those expenses in 2018.


  10. Severino made a beautiful throw to 3B to catch Vázquez trying to steal 3B to end a second inning threat by the Red Sox.   That’s the second time this week he’s made a great throw to 3B, having picked a runner off 3B in a previous game.  

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  11. 2 hours ago, Philip said:

    meanwhile, I wonder how likely it is that Iglesias will be traded. He has real value, and the FA shortstops are all going to be wildly expensive.

    Interesting thought.    He’s been unbelievable with the bat this year. Obviously you’d expect him to slide substantially from this year’s numbers, but it does appear that his upward offensive trend the last three seasons mean he’s a better hitter now than he was a few years ago.   So yeah, if we were willing to part with him we might get a decent prospect or two in return.  


  12. 1 hour ago, SteveA said:

    Angel & Mantra recently retired.  Hunter, Thorne, Palmer, Dempsey, Davis all 70ish.  Looks like they brought back veteran Garceau to hold the prime TV spot while the young crew breaks in on the radio and I guess they hope 1 or 2 of Brown, Arnold, Newman, Hollander will be keepers and eventually inherit the #1 TV spot.

    Right.   I have listened to very little radio this year, but have really liked Geoff Arnold the few times I’ve heard him.    


  13. On 6/24/2020 at 9:30 AM, Frobby said:

    I was thinking about the small sample size we’ll have in 2020, and wondering how well we might do if the cards broke our way, assuming the same level of talent we had the last two years.    To get a handle, I took a look at 2018-2019.

    The 2018 team was remarkably consistent in its terribleness.    So far as I could tell, its worst record over any 60 game stretch was 17-43, while its best record was 19-41 (including their “hot” start to the 2018 season!).

    The 2019 team varied a bit more.    Its worst 60-game record was 15-45, while its best was 23-37.     

    (All of this is from me eyeballing the schedule; it’s possible I missed a hotter or colder stretch somewhere.)

    Overall, I don’t see that a fluke scenario where we play .400+ baseball for 60 games has much chance to occur.    It hasn’t happened any time in the last two years, and I think the talent level on this year’s team is probably the lowest it’s been when you factor in the Villar and Bundy trades and Mancini’s illness.     So, put me down for 20-40 or worse.   

    With their 24th win tonight, the O’s assured a 60-game record that is better than any 60-game stretch they had in 2018-19.    I’m pretty impressed with that accomplishment.   Hoping for a few more wins before it’s over.   

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  14. 4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Cash loss of 3B?

    He means MLB revenue will be 3B less right? 

    Don’t think so.    Revenue must be down by a lot more than 3B.   Have a look at my thread on last year’s Forbes numbers.    The average team has gate revenues of $94 mm — that’s $2.82 bb lost right there.    Then consider that local TV revenues (per another Forbes article, $2.3 bb) are probably down proportionally to the number of games — that’s another $1.4 bb down.  Then there’s the National TV revenue - whatever portion of that relates to the regular season probably reduced proportionally.   So it’s got to be at least a $5 B revenue loss for MLB overall, maybe more.    Not sure if it translates to a $3 BB loss, though. MLB had net income of $40 mm per team of $1.2 B in 2018.    Subtract $5 BB lost revenue but add in $3 B in payroll deductions and you’re only $800 mm in the hole.    I’m sure there are other revenue and cost reductions that I haven’t mentioned that would move the needle from there, but it seems unlikely it would swing $2.2 B lower than what I calculated here .

     

     

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  15. Well, good inning but could’ve been better.    To be honest, I’m not sure the catcher tagged Urías before his foot reached the plate, even though the ball was there in plenty of time.  


  16. 2 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

    Yea maybe it's just the games I've watched, but Stewart always seems to misplay a ball or take an awkward angle or something...

    I see he has a negative dWAR again this season, but it's not as bad as last year's.

    You should understand that an average LF will have a negative dWAR, because dWAR contains a component for whether the portion you play is of above average or below average difficulty.   A perfect example is Juan Soto, who played 150 games in LF for the Nats last year.    His positional adjustment (Rpos) for LF was -6, and his own fielding (Rfield) was worth 0 (average), resulting in dWAR of -0.7.     For Stewart this year his positional adjustment is -1 and his fielding component is 0.     So by that particular metric, he has been an average corner OF defensively.   Not that I agree with that.


  17. 7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

    I think there are several alternative better than what Alberto has shown over the last two seasons.

    1) Elias will probably find someone equal or better on the waiver wire or for a small purchase with a salary less the 3M.  Probably for the minimum.

    2) Bannon may not be ready yet but may be by mid next season.

    3) Even Valiaka vs lefties and Wilkerson vs righties would be a better solution and cheaper.  Though I would rather find one player than go with a platoon.

    So you think a platoon of Valaika (-0.1 rWAR this year, -0.6 rWAR last year) and Wilkerson (-1.0 rWAR last year and taken off the 40-man roster this year) would outperform Alberto (0.4 rWAR this year, 2.9 rWAR last year)?     I recognize they might improve their numbers in a platoon situation, but I don’t think it’s very likely they would increase them by enough to outperform Alberto, and of course you’d have to use two roster spots to do it.   

    As to finding someone better on the waiver wire or a cheap purchase, I asked who you wanted and don’t have an answer.    

    What this comes down to is you don’t think Alberto is as good as his WAR figures say he is, because he’s had bad splits vs. RHP the last two years.    We simply disagree about that.    I think the numbers have been a fair reflection of Alberto’s value.    I’d peg him as a 1-2 WAR player for next year, and at $3 mm, that’s not bad.   

    As to Bannon (also mentioned by SG and Philip), I am interested in him long term but he’s had very little AAA experience (20 games), struggled in the AFL last fall and wasn’t given a 60-man roster spot this year so I doubt the team is ready to roll the dice on him     It’s a shame the minor league season wasn’t played, because if it had he’d either be in the majors right now or at least we’d know more about whether we could pencil him in for 2021.


  18. Just now, Can_of_corn said:

    On the other hand we also have the time he, let's say, exaggerated, how much time he spent with the hitting coach in the offseason.

    Yep.   We will never really know exactly how much work Davis put in compared to what other players do.    So, I choose not to speculate about it.   It’s well past the point where we can hope for some Hail Mary offseason turnaround, the guy is far below a replacement level player, and now we have a lot of guys who need to be in the majors taking the at bats that Davis might take.    The only justification for keeping him is the possibility that a full season won’t be played and we won’t have to pay him the full amount he’s owed.    That’s a complex decision that I can’t comment on very intelligently.    

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