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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. On 9/10/2020 at 8:10 AM, Frobby said:

    CDC (as of your post) vs. JHU (per my weekly chart):

    CDC 8/15: 5685 6666

    JHU 8/17: 7050

    CDC 8/22: 3861 5601

    JHU 8/24: 6757

    CDC 8/29: 1594 4699

    JHU 8/31: 6259

    CDC 9/5: 201 3347

    JHU 9/7: 5874

    Obviously, those paint very different pictures and would lead to radically different conclusions about how dramatically the disease is slowing.   Like I said, let’s wait 2-3 weeks and see whether CDC’s numbers for those weeks have changed, and by how much.

    OK, it’s been two weeks, so I’ve posted in bold the updated numbers from CDC.    Obviously, they have changed considerably, and do not support the conclusion that deaths were dropping by more than half per week.    The CDC numbers are still changing (increasing) as new data reaches the CDC, so I will update this again next week, as I originally said to wait 2-3 weeks.    CDC now says:

    “*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.“

    • Thanks 1

  2. 6 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

    What's wrong with Schoop? Strong defender and a lot of power. He has his warts but he's a good ballpayer.

    Fair enough about Profar. What about Villar? The other infielders I'm seeing are too good (LeMahieu) or too bad (Hechavarria) to make sense.

    You know who’s just about right for this team, from a price vs. production standpoint?    Hanser Alberto.    

    Schoop, by the way, has had a pretty nice season.  

  3. 32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

    As mentioned, plenty of athletes have come back from cancer to regain their form.  Mike Lowell, Jon Lester, Andres Galarraga, Eric Davis, Mario Lemieux, Lance Armstrong.   You can quibble about Lance but he doped in a sport where everyone doped.  All those athletes came back from cancer and excelled.  And there are a lot of others, I'm not bringing up Olympians and WNBA players because...WNBA.

    I'm not worried about Mancini returning to form, I don't see why anyone really should be.  He's got access to incredible doctors and trainers and the Orioles will do everything to make sure he's ready to go next year.  

    If there was a correlation between cancer and losing hand-eye coordination, I'd be inclined to worry along with you.  But there's not.

    I’m certainly not going to bet against Trey recovering all of his baseball skills, but it would be a great exaggeration to say I wasn’t worried about it.    There’s certainly an appreciable risk that he won’t.   And as I’ve said several times, my wish for his baseball skills to return is vastly secondary to my wish that he remain healthy and cancer free and live a full, happy like.    Baseball would be the cherry on the sundae.  

    • Upvote 4

  4. 23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

    He got squeezed on some more pitches tonight, specifically in the first inning.  I don't know if those would have made his start any better as he got hit around a bit but he didn't get some obvious strikes.  And I'm not one to usually complain about umpiring.

    I do think he got squeezed tonight, plus he had some bad luck in the first inning, Hyde left him out there too long in the third inning when he clearly didn’t have it, and then Kline couldn’t pick him up by stranding the runners.    None of that eradicates the fact that he wasn’t sharp and left too many pitches in bad locations, but his line was a bit worse than it needed to be.   

    • Upvote 1

  5. 1 hour ago, Philip said:

    I love defense stats and I’m a big believer. But they take a long time to normalize, and the eye test is also meaningful. Stewart is faster than he looks, but he does look clumsy, he doesn’t seem to follow the ball well, he appears to get late jumps, plays the ball poorly off the wall, and doesn’t seem to have a strong or accurate arm. His actual errors have been pretty egregious, but in addition to those, he doesn’t seem comfortable in right. It’s early days yet, and of course he needs time to work out the kinks, and the stats will normalize and be more accurate.

    I don’t know which traits can be fixed with time and practice, and which traits are what they are( he’s certainly not going to get any faster, for instance) So I don’t know how much he can improve and in which areas, but for now, we have to hope he does improve.

    Very good post.    Stewart is not new to the outfield like Mountcastle or previously Mancini, so I’m not that hopeful he’ll improve much In terms of baseline skill level.    But we do need to recognize that the sample size is small and we may have seen the worst Stewart has to offer defensively.    

  6. 4 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

    Still, It's closer to the opposite than it is to being the same thing. "All the time" and "several times over the course of the season" are not even reasonably close to similar.

    Also, I have watched a fudgeton of baseball and have not seen an outfielder as inept and unathletic as DJ. He makes Trumbo look like Clemente. At least Jeff Stone was coordinated. Not sure you could see the body of work Stewart has produced this season "several times per year" no matter how many teams you follow.

    I think your view of Stewart’s defense is a bit extreme.   I’ve seen many more inept outfielders, certainly including Trumbo.    

  7. 20 minutes ago, terphoopsfan said:

    Who will be on the IL more in their pro career? Harvey or Hays?

    To date, Harvey has been injured far more often than Hays.    And arms are very finicky things.   

    I hope that Harvey will at some point get through a season without being shut down at any point.   But it has never happened once in his seven full seasons in our organization, so I will go into next year assuming that we won’t get a full year out of him.  

  8. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    What do you do with Mancini?

    This is a pretty crucial decision.

    Moves will obviously be made but there will still be plenty of roster questions.  

    Will room be made for Diaz?  Will Mountcastle play first or LF?  How do you handle DH?  

    Mancini is a factor in all of these decisions, not to mention do you want to pay him 5-8M next year  coming off of him kicking cancers butt?  It’s a risk, for sure.

    I don’t envy Elias here.  Obviously, you have to see where he is strength wise and stuff like that to really make this decision but once you have that confirmation, what do you do?  

    First, I don’t think the range is $5-8 mm.    $5 mm is about the ceiling (Mancini was due to earn $4.75 mm this year.)   For example, Alex Cobb earned $4 mm in his first Arb year, missed that whole season with TJ surgery that cropped up that spring, and got paid $4 mm the following year.   I think that’s pretty typical when a player misses the whole season due to injury or other physical reasons.   

    $5 mm is not pocket change when you are uncertain how strongly Mancini will come back, assuming he’s able to do so.     But, the upside is pretty good too.   And yes, the O’s have a bunch of other 1B/DH/OF types, but none of them except possibly Mountcastle has Mancini’s upside.   I think that, along with PR, team morale and other “soft factors” will lead the O’s to bring him back and take their chances.    Whether they try to make a move or two to alleviate the crowding at 1B/DH/OF will be interesting to watch.   

  9. 53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    All the time meaning you see it several times over the course of a season.  

    Webbrick acted as if DJ is the first player in MLB history to drop an easy flyball.

    Right, and he’s not the first, just the latest.    That said, overall Stewart has been a worse defensive OF than I’d been led to believe based on scouting reports I’d read while he was in the minors.     I didn’t make too much of it when he got bonked on the head while trying to make a sliding/diving catch last year, and a few other bad plays.   But at this point he’s got almost a half-season of games under his belt over the last 3 years and don’t really like what I see.   

    Interestingly, the advanced metrics don’t hate him.    2020 and career:

    OAA: 1, -2

    Rtot: -1, -1

    Rdrs: 0, -2

    UZR: -0.8, -1.7

    That presents a picture of slightly below average but not awful.    But I’d say he’s more that slightly below average based on what I’ve seen.

  10. 8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Do you think Stroman had genuine concern?  I don't.  I think he saw a way to make sure he was healthy going into free agency.

    To be honest, I wasn’t really paying attention when Stroman opted out.    But the situation with players testing positive was pretty hairy in those first couple of weeks, so to me he would have had more reason for concern.    Whether that was his actual motivation, I don’t know.   

  11. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    It happens all the time that a MLer drops a ball like DJ did last night.  That being said, he’s still a guy you prefer to be a DH while playing the OF at times.


    “All the time?”    The average team has made 3 errors in the outfield this year in 55ish games (excluding throwing errors).     Some of those were presumably errors fielding balls that had bounced.    I’d call that particular error probably in the worst 10% of dropped outfield flies that I’ve seen, based on the amount of time Stewart had to get under it and the lack of any complicating factors like heavy wind or confusion over who was calling for the ball.  I doubt there have been five dropped flies this year as bad as that one.    

    That said, Michael Chavis was pretty hilarious in LF last night, too.   


    • Upvote 1

  12. 2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    1- The team wouldn't have shown more loyalty to him.

    2- He did wait until they were eliminated.

    3- I don't recall anyone having an issue with Stoman opting out.

    My main issue here is that I doubt he has any genuine concern about COVID risk, or he would have dropped out long ago.   This just seems like an excuse to go home a few days early.    Even his public statement didn’t really suggest that he’s suddenly feeling at risk.    

    Let me be clear — I completely support anyone who decides that they’d rather forego their paycheck than face the COVID risk.   But I don’t feel that’s what’s going on in these circumstances.    

    Now I will admit, he could argue that he’s always had some reservations about the risk but was willing to accept them so long as the team had a shot at the playoffs, but isn’t willing to accept those risks in order the play out the string.  But I don’t see him making that argument.   

    C’est la vie.    I’m sure the free agent market won’t care about this decision.    But if I was a teammate, I wouldn’t like it.    

    • Upvote 1

  13. Tonight: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K’s.    

    Akin’s pitch count got out of whack in a protracted second inning that featured a leadoff throwing error by Ruiz and a particularly egregious dropped fly ball by Stewart that would have been the third out of the inning.   A much longer inning than it needed to be.  

    That said, Akin wasn’t that sharp tonight, especially with his breaking stiff.   He missed middle-middle several times and paid the price.   When he hit his spots, he was effective.  

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