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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    What do you do with Mancini?

    This is a pretty crucial decision.

    Moves will obviously be made but there will still be plenty of roster questions.  

    Will room be made for Diaz?  Will Mountcastle play first or LF?  How do you handle DH?  

    Mancini is a factor in all of these decisions, not to mention do you want to pay him 5-8M next year  coming off of him kicking cancers butt?  It’s a risk, for sure.

    I don’t envy Elias here.  Obviously, you have to see where he is strength wise and stuff like that to really make this decision but once you have that confirmation, what do you do?  

    First, I don’t think the range is $5-8 mm.    $5 mm is about the ceiling (Mancini was due to earn $4.75 mm this year.)   For example, Alex Cobb earned $4 mm in his first Arb year, missed that whole season with TJ surgery that cropped up that spring, and got paid $4 mm the following year.   I think that’s pretty typical when a player misses the whole season due to injury or other physical reasons.   

    $5 mm is not pocket change when you are uncertain how strongly Mancini will come back, assuming he’s able to do so.     But, the upside is pretty good too.   And yes, the O’s have a bunch of other 1B/DH/OF types, but none of them except possibly Mountcastle has Mancini’s upside.   I think that, along with PR, team morale and other “soft factors” will lead the O’s to bring him back and take their chances.    Whether they try to make a move or two to alleviate the crowding at 1B/DH/OF will be interesting to watch.   

  2. 53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    All the time meaning you see it several times over the course of a season.  

    Webbrick acted as if DJ is the first player in MLB history to drop an easy flyball.

    Right, and he’s not the first, just the latest.    That said, overall Stewart has been a worse defensive OF than I’d been led to believe based on scouting reports I’d read while he was in the minors.     I didn’t make too much of it when he got bonked on the head while trying to make a sliding/diving catch last year, and a few other bad plays.   But at this point he’s got almost a half-season of games under his belt over the last 3 years and don’t really like what I see.   

    Interestingly, the advanced metrics don’t hate him.    2020 and career:

    OAA: 1, -2

    Rtot: -1, -1

    Rdrs: 0, -2

    UZR: -0.8, -1.7

    That presents a picture of slightly below average but not awful.    But I’d say he’s more that slightly below average based on what I’ve seen.

  3. 8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Do you think Stroman had genuine concern?  I don't.  I think he saw a way to make sure he was healthy going into free agency.

    To be honest, I wasn’t really paying attention when Stroman opted out.    But the situation with players testing positive was pretty hairy in those first couple of weeks, so to me he would have had more reason for concern.    Whether that was his actual motivation, I don’t know.   

  4. 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    It happens all the time that a MLer drops a ball like DJ did last night.  That being said, he’s still a guy you prefer to be a DH while playing the OF at times.


    “All the time?”    The average team has made 3 errors in the outfield this year in 55ish games (excluding throwing errors).     Some of those were presumably errors fielding balls that had bounced.    I’d call that particular error probably in the worst 10% of dropped outfield flies that I’ve seen, based on the amount of time Stewart had to get under it and the lack of any complicating factors like heavy wind or confusion over who was calling for the ball.  I doubt there have been five dropped flies this year as bad as that one.    

    That said, Michael Chavis was pretty hilarious in LF last night, too.   


    • Upvote 1

  5. 2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    1- The team wouldn't have shown more loyalty to him.

    2- He did wait until they were eliminated.

    3- I don't recall anyone having an issue with Stoman opting out.

    My main issue here is that I doubt he has any genuine concern about COVID risk, or he would have dropped out long ago.   This just seems like an excuse to go home a few days early.    Even his public statement didn’t really suggest that he’s suddenly feeling at risk.    

    Let me be clear — I completely support anyone who decides that they’d rather forego their paycheck than face the COVID risk.   But I don’t feel that’s what’s going on in these circumstances.    

    Now I will admit, he could argue that he’s always had some reservations about the risk but was willing to accept them so long as the team had a shot at the playoffs, but isn’t willing to accept those risks in order the play out the string.  But I don’t see him making that argument.   

    C’est la vie.    I’m sure the free agent market won’t care about this decision.    But if I was a teammate, I wouldn’t like it.    

    • Upvote 1

  6. Tonight: 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K’s.    

    Akin’s pitch count got out of whack in a protracted second inning that featured a leadoff throwing error by Ruiz and a particularly egregious dropped fly ball by Stewart that would have been the third out of the inning.   A much longer inning than it needed to be.  

    That said, Akin wasn’t that sharp tonight, especially with his breaking stiff.   He missed middle-middle several times and paid the price.   When he hit his spots, he was effective.  

  7. 1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

    The elephant in the room regarding the infield is the health of Trey next year. If he is capable of playing to/close to his top ability, he is going to be the First Baseman. But tonight, we have no idea how things will look 5-6 months from now with his recovery. His presence may directly affect Nunez's roster spot. Ruiz's, too.

    My attitude is we have to assume Trey will not be his normal self next year.    I hope that assumption will prove wrong, but Trey has his work cut out for him.    I just want him to be cancer-free; anything else is gravy.   

  8. 25 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

    My idea was more simplistic: Take the order of finish from this year and from last year then tally the placements. Example for Orioles: 29 last year plus ?23? this year totals 62, which probably translates to 26th or something. Senators finished ?5? last year and ?26? this year for a total of 31, which might translate to 13th or so. Not sure whether it would be much different from Frobby's order. But I guess we won;t need to bother doing the math on this at the end of the season,

    Probably would be very similar.   

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