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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. On 10/9/2020 at 9:36 PM, Frobby said:

    4/6 - Al Kaline

    8/31 - Tom Seaver

    9/6 - Lou Brock 

    10/2 - Bob Gibson 

    10/8 - Whitey Ford

    These guys were icons in my youth.    Not to mention Frank Robinson (2/7/19), my all-time hero.   It’s making me feel way too old.  


    And now Joe Morgan.    

  2. I decided to be radical and say Kjerstad and Mountcastle.   I read Tony’s remark in the Rodriguez thread about how Hall hasn’t even shown control, much less command, and to me that’s a recipe to drop him down to 5.    Then it boils down to whether you like Mountcastle’s proven track record at the plate and nice debut this year vs. Kjerstad’s higher upside, partly due to better defensive value but also maybe more power.    It’s tough to go against the guy already in the majors vs. a guy who hasn’t played a pro game and had a truncated college season, but that’s what I’m doing.    Elias liked him enough to use the no. 2 pick on him and that’s enough for me to pick him over Mountcastle.

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  3. 2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

    Where are you getting those from? Savant has all of his breaking balls as sliders. Saying that, it is a bit of a hybrid pitch. It's a little slow for a true slider and has more horizontal break as a lot of curveballs. From a scouting standpoint, I'd call it a slurve but it has more of a slider shape than a true 12-6 curveball.

    I’m getting them from Fangraphs.  They actually have two different flavors of pitch breakdown, “pitch type” and Pitch Info pitch type.”   But they both show the same breakdown.   Here’s Akin’s page: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keegan-akin/19362/stats#pitch-type

  4. Last year Tony (in consultation with Luke) had the top 5 this way (current grade/future grade/ceiling):

    1. Rutschman 50/70/70

    2.  Rodriguez 40/60/70

    3.  Hall 30/60/70

    4.  Mountcastle 50/60/65

    5.  Hays (no longer eligible).

    Obviously Tony has heard a lot more than we have about what went on at the Bowie alternate site.  But the reports I’ve read/heard on Rutschman have been glowing, so I think there’s no way he’s moved off the no. 1 perch.   I recall Tony reporting early in camp that Hall had been pretty wild, and Matt Blood has said he and Rodriguez both have good stuff but need to gain consistency.    With Rodriguez being a year younger than Hall, I see no reason based on that information that Hall would have leapfrogged Rodriguez.  If anything, the gap may have widened a little depending on how the back half of Hall’s camp was.    

    So then the issue is where do you insert Mountcastle and Kjerstad.   Mountcastle made a good case that his hit tool will carry over to the majors, that plate discipline won’t be a huge issue for him, and that he has more speed than we realized.    His defense remains a work in progress.    Overall, I think he did enough to jump over Hall, but not Rodriguez.    But, it depends a lot on what else Tony heard about Bowie.    

    As to Kjerstad, he’s a complete wild card to me.    Obviously, Elias thought enough of him to pick him no. 2 overall, and even if you see that as part of an overall strategy to save money to spend lower in the draft, you don’t do that unless you are convinced that the player selected is still a very top talent.   On its face, the money we paid him  is still much more than we paid Rodriguez or Hall, so at least as of draft day, he was more highly regarded than those two were when they were selected.   The issue is, (1) both Rodriguez and Hall have improved their status nationally since they were drafted, and (2) Kjerstad had a short college season this year and then no pro experience, so it’s really hard to judge where he should be.   I’d put him 3rd, 4th or 5th, but it’s guesswork where he belongs in that group.   

  5. 7 hours ago, Philip said:

    I just read the FanGraphs article. Boy is he hard on us. Only four guys with >|=50 FV. Harsh.

    I would not say he’s harsh on the Orioles.    He’s just a strict grader generally.    Among the 30 teams, he only ranks 112 players at 50 or higher — 3.7 per team.   Of those, only 40 rank 55 or higher — 1.3 per team.   So for the O’s to have four guys at 50 or higher with two of those at 55 or higher puts them at above average in both categories.

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  6. 3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

    I disagree with much of this.  Kjerstad could be the second best pick (I doubt he was) and Rodriguez could still be better.  I also don’t think Mountcastle is too flawed.

    His offensive flaws are less than I thought.    He’s not much of a defender.    He’s still got time to improve on his weaknesses.   I’m pretty happy with how he’s working out so far.   

  7. 4 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Whatever one thinks of his bat, MC’s defense is a big problem. Grey-Rod has TOR potential, is a rare player with rare gifts. I’m lousy at picking prospects, but I got this one right.

    I think the trickiest question is where to place Kjerstad.   I cannot put him above Grayson without having played a MiL game.   But he’s got a credible argument for the no. 3 spot, even if you view him as more like the 7th/9th best talent in the draft rather than the 2nd best.   

  8. 16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    I really like the cutter I saw from Kremer.    I think that’s his third pitch.   Didn’t really see him throw a change much , those I confess I haven’t looked at any breakdowns of how often he threw his various pitches.  

    OK, now I’ve looked.

    Kremer: 51.2% FB, 19.1% CT, 27.2% CU, 2.6% CH.

    Akin 62.0% FB, 10.0% SL, 10.6% CU, 17.4% CH.

    I’m actually not sure if Akin has a distinct slider and curve, or whether he really just throws a slurve that gets put in one of the two buckets based on how much it happens to break on each occasion or how fast the pitch is thrown.

  9. From spiritof66:

    “I don't know whether the umpiring has gotten worse in the last few years, but now all umpiring errors on balls snd strikes are highly visible on TV and online, and a lot of fans are unhappy about it, especially when the bad calls are made at critical points in a game or playoff series or season.”

    Studies show that umpiring has gotten better.    Also, younger umpires are better at calling balls and strikes than older umpires.   http://www.bu.edu/articles/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy/

  10. 2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

    I agree in part.  Fastball and breaking pitch slightly in Kremer's favor.  However, Akin at times showed a plus changeup.  I don't think Kremer's is even in the same zip code but I didn't see much of either so I'm all ears.

    I really like the cutter I saw from Kremer.    I think that’s his third pitch.   Didn’t really see him throw a change much , those I confess I haven’t looked at any breakdowns of how often he threw his various pitches.  

  11. Zack Britton had a nice ALCS, pitching 4 scoreless innings and striking out 6 while yielding only 1 hit and 2 walks.  In the wildcard series he threw 1.1 innings and yielded only two walks, but they both scored when the pitcher who followed (entering with 2 outs in the 7th) yielded a two run double.   Overall, a good postseason for Britton BUT THE YANKEES LOST!!!

  12. 18 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:


    THE BOARD now has BAL in a 9/10/11/12 tier at $255M in value give or take 5 either way, along with SEA/MIN/TOR.  Everyone else $273 and up, or $232  and down.

    The 40+ to 45 grade bumps for both SP only moved them individually from $3M to $4M.   This was my first time seeing the big spike in FG estimations when reaching the 50 FV level - I guess its perspective is, very broadly speaking, you are worthwhile or worthless.

    Among 45's, Longenhangen, bullish on Vavra, still has him ahead of both Akin/Kremer.

    He drops Baumann behind Akin, but still ahead of Kremer, and also has Kremer/Yusniel the "last" of the 45's, behind even Westburg/Stowers.

    I like Kremer a bit more than Akin.   Akin’s stuff is not quite as good, but he’s more deceptive.   But deception wears down as hitters become more looks.    Give me Kremer for the long run.   I like both, though.  

  13. Fun presentation.    A few other facts I dug up:

    1.   Other than that one season, Barajas threw out 31% of runners in the previous 13 seasons.

    2.   In 2012, runners attempted a steal once every 8.34 innings against Barajas.   In the previous 13 seasons, they attempted a steal once every 13.26 innings.

    So, that supports the theory that the problem was the pitchers, not Barrajas.    But then there’s this:

    3.   The other Pirate catcher, Michael McKenry, threw out 17.6% of runners compared to Barajas’ 6.0%.    


    4.   Pitchers ran on McKenry even more than on Barajas, once every 8.20 innings.   

    Overall, I think the conclusion on the video that it was mostly the pitchers’ fault is pretty well supported, although watching it, it sure looked like Barajas’ arm was shot.   Lots of slow throws, lots of bounced throws, lots of wild throws, lots of double clutches before throwing.    And, some non-throws.    He sure looked pretty bad to me.   

  14. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo on Rutschman:

    “Stop us if you’ve heard this one, but Rutschman is really, really good at baseball. In these kinds of stories, an attempt is made to spread the love around, but when a guy is the best player at the alternate training site, he’s the best player. And Rutschman, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 Draft, was the best player.“

    And on Henderson:

    “He was the most exciting guy in camp for me,” Blood said. “The guy worked really hard and he showed five tools. He’s facing Double-A, Triple-A, 4-A pitchers for the first time in his life. It was a challenge for him, and he caught up. By week three, he had caught up to the competition he was facing and he was one of the best guys there. The older guys really took notice and were impressed by him and were also helping him. And he played a nice shortstop, too.”


  15. On 9/2/2020 at 10:09 AM, Number5 said:

    Campaneris always seemed to be a thorn in the Orioles side.  I don't know his stats vs. us as compared to other teams, but he always seemed to me to be a guy that hurt us.

    Ask and ye shall be answered:

    Career stat line: .259/.311/.342

    Vs. Orioles: .270/.317/.350

    Not particularly compelling.   What you are probably remembering is the 1973 ALCS, where he crushed us to the tune of .333/.391/.667 and had 2 HR, 3 RBI, and 3 SB, including beating us with a walk-off homer in the 11th inning of game 3.    Then in the opening game of the 1974 ALCS he went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI.    But we won that game, and he never had another hit in that series (.343 OPS overall).    He was bad against us in the ‘71.ALCS, too (.417 OPS).

    Just to show how different the game was in those days, the pitcher who yielded Campaneris’ 11th inning walk-off in Game 3 of the ‘73 ALCS was the starting pitcher, Mike Cuellar.

    Here’s the most memorable moment from Campaneris’ career IMO: 





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  16. On 10/7/2020 at 6:41 AM, wildcard said:

    #6 Gunnar Henderson #6 45 FV

    #7 Jordan Westburg # 11 45

    #13 Terrin Vavra #7 45

    #16 Adam Hall # 17 40+

    #20 Anthony Servideo #15 40+

    #24 Coby Mayo #18 40+

    #25 Rylan Bannon #21 40

    #30 Cadyn Grenier #19 40

    2019 4th rounder  Joey Ortiz #34 35+

    Darell  Hernaiz #30 40

    Mason McCoy

    Richie Martin

    Erison Placencia

    Just thought I’d use this to indicate where Fangraphs rates these players, and their scouting grade.

    Bonus player: 

    Ramon Urías, #28 40 FV

  17. Credit to Can_of_corn, who posted this link in one of the Minors forum links.    I thought it deserved some play here, since it discusses players who have had their major league debut but haven’t lost rookie status.


    Pretty optimistic take on our guys.   I was a bit surprised to see Urías mentioned, but here’s his writeup:

    “I buy that second baseman Ramón Urías has above-average feel to hit that makes him an above-replacement player with some sneaky trade value. Even at age 26, Urías has some roster flexibility thanks to two remaining option years and a service time clock that just started. He’s not a good defender and doesn’t have much power, but he puts the bat head on the ball consistently and can play second base, though not especially well. He’d be an interesting, small-trade depth target for a contender this winter, similar to Mark Mathias last year.”




  18. 6 hours ago, orioles22 said:

    I didn't think of it that way. Good point. He should be in high A and maybe make it to AA by midseason. I wonder if players will move more quickly if 2021 after the missed season.

    Probably.    I also think there will be a lot of competition in spring camp and we’ll see a lot of cuts and some surprising placements.  

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