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Frobby

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Posts posted by Frobby


  1. One of the great pitchers of my youth.  His 1967-68 World Series performances were unforgettable, not to mention his amazing 1.12 ERA in the 1968 season.   I was 10-11 at the time, just starting to become an intense baseball fan, so those seasons are emblazoned in my memory almost like no others.  

    And, it is very sad and yet so fitting that Gibson passed away with a month of his HOF teammate Lou Brock, co-star of those 1967-68 World Series.    

    I wasn’t yet a baseball fan in 1964, another Cardinals WS team led by Gibson and Brock.   But if you’ve never read it, try David Halberstam’s October 1964, which recounts that World Series and the season that preceded it in the context of what was going on in the civil rights era at the time.    It’s on my list of the top 10 baseball books ever written.   (Halberstam’s Summer of ‘49 is also on my list.)   It does a great job of looking at Gibson in that context.

    RIP to a great pitcher and an impressive man.




     


  2. Lots of other guys in play too.   Tons of young players made a mark in 2019-20.  Some guys who were worth at least 5.0 rWAR the last two years:

    Tatis 6.7 (will be 20-29 in the 20 year period in question

     Alonso 5.2 (24-33)

    Gallen 5.2 (23-32)

    Need to run out now and will add to this later.

     


  3. On 2/9/2019 at 7:37 AM, Frobby said:

    If you could have any ten players in baseball over the next 10 years, who would they be?    Don’t worry about whether you have duplicates at certain positions, just pick the guys you think will be the best ten.   Don’t consider salary or contract status, time to free agency, or anything other than who would be the best ten players for the next 10 years.

    While this is not intended to be exclusive or exhaustive, here are some players to consider.  (Don’t assume I’m putting them in the order I think they belong in.   I’m just listing them in the order they popped into my head.)

    1.   Mike Trout.   He’ll be 27-36 the next 10 years.   64.3 rWAR in 7+ years so far. 9.8

    2.   Bryce Harper, 26-35, 27.4 rWAR in 6+ years. 6.0

    3.   Manny Machado, 26-35, 33.8 rWAR in 6+ years. 5.4

    4.   Mookie Betts, 26-35, 35.2 rWAR in 4+ years. 10.3

    5.   Aaron Judge, 27-36, 13.2 rWAR in 2+ years.  6.5

    6.   Giancarlo Stanton, 29-38, 39.2 rWAR in 8+ years. 0.8

    7.   Carlos Correa, 24-33, 18.2 rWAR in 3+ years. 5.0

    8.   Francisco Lindor, 25-34, 23.9 rWAR in 3+ years. 5.8

    9.   Jose Altuve, 29-38, 35.2 rWAR in 7+ years. 3.4

    10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 20-29, never played in the majors.1.9

    11.  Nolan Arenado, 28-37, 33.1 rWAR in 5+ years.   8.1

    12.  Alex Bregman, 25-34, 12.7 rWAR in 2+ years. 9.9

    13.   Jose Ramirez, 26-35, 22.0 rWAR in 5+ years. 5.5

    14.   Christian Yelich, 27-36, 26.2 rWAR in 5+ years.7.1

    15.   Matt Chapman, 26-35, 11.7 rWAR in 1+ years. 9.3

    16.   Juan Soto, 20-29, 3.0 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.6.7

    17.   Ronald Acuna, 21-30, 4.1 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.7.8

    18.   Trea Turner, 26-35, 10.4 rWAR in 2+ years.5.4

    19.  Andrew Benintendi, 24-33, 7.0 rWAR in 2+ years.1.6

    20.   Ozzie Albies, Braves, 22-31, 5.2 rWAR in 1+ years.5.8

    Two points:

    1.   I have no doubt there are some other guys who haven’t played in the majors yet, or who are just getting started, who deserve consideration for the ten.    These are just the guys who came to mind for me.

    2.   You’ll notice there are no pitchers on this list.    Partially, that’s because 10 years is a very long time for a pitcher, and guessing who gets hurt is such a crapshoot.    But some probably do belong in a top 10.    I’ll probably post a second list of possible pitcher candidates when I have time to think of it, but please include pitchers on your list if you think they belong.

     

    Thought this would be a fun thread to bump, two years into the ten year period that was discussed in the OP.    The two-year WAR totals for the 20 position players I had suggested are shown in bold above.    Obviously, still a very long way to go to see how this turns out, and nobody was expecting a 60-game season when I started this thread.  
     

    Two years in, I’d say Altuve and Stanton are in real trouble, while everyone else is still in play.    


  4. 16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I also think the financial gains, particularly with fringe top 100 guys, is going to be marginal. 

    1. Player has to have a career long enough for control to matter
    2. Player has to stay with the organization or be part of a trade in which their remaining service time will increase the return.
    3. Team has to fail to come to terms on an extension with the player.
    4. Team has to value the last year of control.
    5. The next CBA has to not tear all this apart.

    I look at someone like Schoop, holding him back and getting an extra year wouldn't have changed anything.  Would the O's have been damaged if they had let Wieters start the year in Baltimore?

    As to item 3, I think a lot of times the terms of an extension will be affected by the player’s service time situation.    A guy with 2.030 years of service (Sept. call up) has a lot more leverage than a guy with 1.114 (late May call up short of Super 2), even though the team has about an equal feel for their long term potential at that point.

    One project I have in mind for this long offseason is studying this subject a little more.    I do think you are right that there are lots of ways these plans can go off the rails.    


  5. The Orioles are getting ready to open their fall instructional league down in Sarasota. The Ed Smith Stadium complex is operating again after being shut down for more than six months.

    * * *

    A complete roster of participants will be available soon and figures to include the draft selections who were denied a minor league season.

    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/10/a-few-thoughts-on-fall-instructional-league.html

    Talks a bit about who might attend.  Sounds like it’s starting pretty soon.  

    • Upvote 2

  6. Here’s a collection of various things Luke said about Bradish while he was still an OH scouting analyst:

    Bradish is the Baumann type, could be a big stuff guy but with a delivery and command that make some think bullpen. 

    It's completely a bet that Holt and crew can develop pitchers. 
    ***
    Bradish - has a slider that wasn't shown here, has been up to 96 with the fastball, you can see the unique release angle

    ***
    Kyle
     Bradish - extreme over the top delivery, will show mid rotation stuff, high spin curve, but has trouble holding it

    ***

    Bradish is tough to place among the O's prospects, because the 12-24 range is littered with mediocre stuff performers, where Bradish isn't that, he could have mid-rotation stuff but needs to throw more strikes. He fits with what Holt is doing and I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out and shoots up lists next year.

    And, here’s the start of a five-tweet thread Luke posted on Twitter:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/The_Luke_Siler/status/1213800246234484738?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1213800246234484738|twgr^share_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.orioleshangout.com%2Fforums%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fthe_luke_siler%2Fstatus%2F1213800246234484738%3Fs%3D21

     

    •  

  7. 7 hours ago, wildcard said:

    That would be great,  but just to be clear, Bradish  like Hall and Rodriguez does not have to be added to the 40 man roster so I don't expect to see any of them in the majors next season.

    Yeah, not worried about that, but it would be nice if Bradish was a guy with TOR potential.   I’m still not expecting that, but I’m dreaming on it based on my read of what Blood has said.   
     

    Just to remind everyone, Bradish was drafted out of New Mexico State at 21 in 2018.   The last couple of years, the Angels weren’t sending pitchers to short season ball after being drafted, so Bradish didn’t pitch professionally that year.   In 2019 he was sent to Inland Empire in the California League, where he pitched to a 4.28 ERA and 1.416 WHIP, striking out 120 in 101 innings and allowing only 90 hits.   Those are pretty decent numbers for the California League, but they certainly don’t scream TOR when you look at them.    So Blood’s high praise was welcome news.     (To be clear, Blood has not said TOR, that’s my optimistic spin on what could happen based on what he said in this article and on the podcast.)

    Blood will play next season at 24.   I assume he’ll start the year at Bowie, but that he could jump to Norfolk at some point.   He does not need to be on the 40-man roster until after the 2022 season, so I agree it’s doubtful we see him in Baltimore in 2021 unless he’s just completely lights out.    

     


  8. 13 hours ago, ScGO's said:

    I like the quotes about Bradish at the end.  Is he on the same level as a Baumann, Kremer, or an Akin?  Wouldn't that be nice.

    In the Inside the Yard podcast, Blood was asked a question about Rodriguez and Hall, and in answering it, he brought up Bradish as though he belonged with those guys.    Wouldn’t that be an awesome development?

    • Upvote 1

  9. OK, the three weeks I said to wait are up.   The original CDC numbers, the updated numbers two weeks later, and the three week update are all shown below:

    CDC 8/15: 5685 6666 6887

    JHU 8/17: 7050

    CDC 8/22: 3861 5601 5885

    JHU 8/24: 6757

    CDC 8/29: 1594 4699 5165

    JHU 8/31: 6259 

    CDC 9/5: 201 3347 4258

    JHU 9/7: 5874

    As can be seen, the CDC numbers for this period are still moving, though the changes  are smaller for the older weeks and increase as the weeks get more recent.    I don’t plan to post any more about this but it’s pretty clear that my original point (that the CDC data points from three weeks ago were very preliminary and should not be interpreted as showing that the death rate was dropping in half in the last weeks of August and first week of September) was proven correct.    

    While on the topic of COVID: I hope that President Trump, who has tested positive today, will experience little or no symptoms and fully recover quickly.    

     

    • Thanks 1

  10. 2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    Yep..was doing it quickly.  Either way, you would have had him longer and he would have had a lot more value.  You have to consider these things.  You can’t just dismiss it and act like it’s nothing and I feel CoC does just that.

    And the calculus changes depending on the competitive position of the team.  

    Fundamentally, I think Can_of_corn’s position is grounded on his sense of what is fair to the player, plus his belief that it is better for players to be challenged even if they struggle at bit, rather than coast at a less challenging level.    He’s not disagreeing about what’s in the financial interest of the team, he just doesn’t like it from either a fairness or development standpoint.    I’m more on your side, for a couple of reasons.    First, I prefer a player demonstrate some mastery of a level before they are pushed to the next one, and I don’t think it hurts them to wait a bit.    And second, since my goal is the long term success of the team, the financial aspects are important to me.    I’d rather have a 7th year of control of a player, especially when that 7th year might come during a time when the team is contending, whereas any necessary delay in the player’s debut is coming at a time when the team won’t be a contender with or without him.   There’s only so far you can take that logic before fairness and development do come into play, but I certainly don’t feel the Orioles have crossed any lines to date.
     


  11. 50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    I certainly am fine with the idea that the Os called up Manny in 2012 but had they not and waited until mid April in 2013, Manny would have a lot more time here (I believe this year would have been his last year) and perhaps he fetches way more in trade.  

    Your math is off here.   If Manny had been brought up in mid-April 2013 he would have been a free agent last winter, instead of the winter before.    


  12. 15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    That would be a logical projection for a consensus 1-1 position player. 

    Got me curious.   There have been 25 no. 1 picks who were position players.   Ten of them had at least one season where they finished top 5 in the MVP voting.   Seven of them won an MVP:

    ARod 3/6

    C. Jones 1/2

    Griffey 1/5

    Mauer 1/2

    Gonzalez 0/1

    Strawberry 0/2

    Upton 0/1

    Harper 1/1

    Hamilton 1/2

    Burroughs 1/1

    Obviously you can debate how many of the 25 were “consensus,” and how many were on this list.   Also, you could go broader than Top 5 for who was an MVP candidate.   But just leaving this as it is, 10 out of 25 isn’t bad.

    • Upvote 2

  13. 3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Oh man, that's going way back.  I tried to think of the monster type seasons I could immediately remember, I forgot about Gentile.  IIRC, 3rd in MVP behind Mantle and Maris.

    I've yet to be able to find anyone that's hit 10+ homers against one opponent in one year like Frank did against the Tigers in '66.

    I was just looking at Brady’s 50 HR year.   Man did he spread the wealth around.   No more than 8 HR against any one team but he homered against all 13 teams he faced, and posted a 1.000+ OPS against 10 of them.   He wasn’t bad against the other three either — .804, .797, .765.    


  14. 51 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Boog Powell, 1970, against the White Sox.  12 games, 6 homers, 17 RBI, .405/.577/.946 for a 1.523 OPS.  14 walks!  

    Cal Ripken, 1991 against the Indians.  13 games, .385/.411/.769 for a 1.180 OPS.  5 homers, 11 RBI.

    Miggy, 2005 against the Red Sox, 18 games, .377/.407/.701, 12 doubles.  I don't think that tops Frank but it's still damn good!

    I'm thinking there's gotta be someone else.

    The year Jim Gentile had 141 RBI, he had 20+ against four different AL teams.    

    1.441 OPS, 9 HR 25 RBI against the Angels in 18 games 

    1.556 OPS, 9 HR 20 RBI against the Tigers in 15 games

    1.117 OPS, 6 HR 23 RBI against the Twins in 18 games 

    1.173 OPS, 7 HR 21 RBI against the KC A’s in 17 games   

    He also had a 1.202 OPS against the Red Sox that year.   For some reason he struggled with Washington (.580) and Cleveland (.652), neither of which was a good team, and he was mediocre against the Yankees (.733), who won 109 games and the World Series.


     

    • Upvote 1

  15. Simple over/under poll, closing Nov. 2.    The O’s 2020 record of 25-35 projects out to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    What’s your early take on whether they will be over or under that number next year?

    On the positive side, the O’s have improved their winning percentage fairly significantly in each of the last two years.   They’re a fairly young team that can get better with experience.    If they’re lucky, one of their best hitters (Mancini) comes back.    There are some prospects who can help the club next year, in addition to the guys who barely got their feet wet this year.   And, their Pythagorean record (28-32) was better than their actual mark.

    On the other hand, the O’s did not finish strong.   14-16 the first half, 11-19 the second.    Not a good trend there.   It’s not unusual for bad teams to wear down as the season progresses, and this year was so short that the decent start has outsized influence on the overall record.    I also think the expanded roster size worked to the O’s advantage, as they were able to shorten the starts, rely more on relievers and shuttle pitchers off and on the roster.    There will be less opportunity for that next year.

    So, what’s your early take?   Obviously there will be roster moves made in the next six months that will influence things, but I doubt we’ll see anything that dramatically changes the team.

     

     

    • Upvote 1
    • Thanks 1

  16. 4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    I don't think we have any one player that terrorizes another team the way Grichuk does to us and Gleyber did in 2019.   

    OK, there is a challenge: what is the most dominating season one Orioles hitter has had in a season against another team?

    Just to give people a place to start, I had a look at Frank Robinson’s Triple Crown season.   In 1966, in 18 games with the Tigers, Frank hit  .368/.463/.926 with 11 homers and 23 RBI.

    Can you top this?


  17. 3 hours ago, Philip said:

    That’s complete malarkey. But as I said, AR isn’t anything except potential. It is illogical to give a grade on how our catching situation is right now, completely based on a potential that is two years away.

    These threads are about the strengths of the organization as a whole at the various positions, not the current strength of the major league team.   I agree grades should not be “completely” based on players in the minors, especially ones who haven’t played an official game above low A.    But the guy was considered to be the easiest 1:1 choice since Harper.    That’s not nothing.  

    • Thanks 1

  18. 1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    I will be very interested to see how Bundy does going forward.  His fastball velocity was off about a mph in '20, his BABIP was down 20 points and his HR/FB rate was less than half of the past two years, and his FB/GB numbers were pretty much the same.  Ks, BB were nearly identical.  So the primary thing was a lot fewer homers on a very similar number of FBs. 

    It too early to tell if that even has a causal source.

    Bundy had a good 11-start short season.  But he was also really good in his first 11 starts in 2017 (2.89 ERA in 71.2 IP).    His performance degraded as that year went along.  This year, Bundy was dominant his first 4 starts (1.57 ERA) but more spotty in the final 7 (4.66 ERA), in which he had 3 pretty poor starts.  So, it’s really hard to know how he would have fared over 30ish starts.   

    • Upvote 4

  19. In 2020:

    Overall: .273/.312/.481, 12 HR and 35 RBI in 231 PA

    Vs. O’s: .333/.356/.881, 7 HR and 18 RBI in 45 PA.

    Vs. other teams: .259/.301/.385, 5 HR and 17 RBI in 186 PA.

    In 2019:

    Overall: .232/.280/.457, 31 HR, 80 RBI in 628 PA

    Vs. O’s: .321/.368/.830, 7 HR, 15 RBI in 57 PA

    Vs. Other teams: .223/.271/.420, 24 HR and 65 RBI in 571 PA.

    This guy is a sub-.700 OPS hitter when he’s not playing us, and a 1.200+ OPS hitter when facing the O’s.    That’s nuts!

    Anyway, glad to see the Blue Jays quickly bounced from the playoffs.


     


  20. 54 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

    Well Flores wasn't good.  My initial response is that I'm happy he's out, and thanks to @Frobby for pulling up the stats to confirm what I thought.  Lots of bad sends this year.  I don't think a third base coach is the hardest job in the world, you mainly just need to know who you have on the bases and know the scouting report about the other teams outfielders and how strong/accurate their arms are.  Easier said than done as you need to have a feel for it and make decisions on the fly, too.

    I'm perplexed about Brocail, the staff showed improvement across the board this year.  Certainly had more talent to work with, too.  But I am assuming Elias has a plan and knows who he wants to hire next.  

    And I assume Hyde is on board, since Elias has been pretty clear that Hyde picks his staff.  

    • Upvote 1

  21. 28 minutes ago, Philip said:

    Ah, they didn’t dump Brady immediately either. Waiting a bit means nothing. I’m with Tony on this one.

    What are you with Tony on?   He said he was ambivalent about the move.   

    By the way, I’m fine with replacing Brocail, depending on who it is.    I just found it ironic that they brought him back after a horrible year from a pitching standpoint and then fired him after the staff had pretty decent season.

    I’ll be interested to see who gets the job, and how quickly.   It wouldn’t surprise me if Elias already knows who he’s hiring.   And it could be that Chris Holt takes the job.
     


  22. On the final day of the regular season, Nick got two hits to pass Ryne Sandberg for 127th place on the all time hit list at 2,388.    He also finished tied for 54th place in doubles with 514.    

    It wasn’t a great season for Nick (.254/.312/.392) and it will be interesting to see if he gets picked up for 2021.    It won’t shock me if this was his swan song, though I hope not.   
     

     


  23. 1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

     

    The 2020 stats support you on Flores.   The O’s were thrown out at the plate 10 times, most in the AL and compared to a league average of 6.    Trying to score from 2B on a single, they were thrown out five times, compared to league average 1.5.    

    You might be able to justify those extra outs if we tried to score more than other teams and were generally successful, but it’s not the case.   
     

    • Upvote 1
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