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Posts posted by Frobby

  1. So last year, Brocail oversaw one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball, which posted a 5.59 ERA and destroyed the major league record for home runs allowed, and he was retained.    This year, the team ERA is over a run lower, at 4.51, and they let Brocail go.    Go figure.    

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  2. 5 hours ago, wildcard said:

    If Alberto is non tendered or traded then Valaika is the heir apparent for the O's 2nd base job.   He had a 791 OPS mainly because he got regular at ba for the first time in his MLB career.  He is a better defensive 2nd baseman than Alberto. His errors this year were at SS not 2B.

    I don’t think we saw enough of Valaika defensively at 2B (73 innings total) to draw any conclusions about whether he’s better than Alberto.    I tend to doubt he is, but I don’t really have a strong view about it.    

    I thought Valaika did a nice job with the bat, and in particular, showed more power than I would have expected.   I’m not sold that he’s a .791 hitter, but he showed enough to hold his 40-man spot this winter.  

  3. 3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    First of all, I’m not worried about the ownership going broke because they sign Stroman.  That’s all bs.  You can choose to believe it if you want but it’s bs.

    I don’t know what to expect out of his market.  He doesn’t get a lot of Ks, he’s approaching 30 and he didn’t pitch at all this year.  If some team is going to go 5+ years and pay him 22M+ a year, so be it.  I’m not interested in that.  But 4 or less years at 20M or less?  Yes, I think that’s an opportunity that we should jump on.  I think he would be a great staff leader and while we certainly want to see a better IF defense with a GB pitcher, I think overall he’s a guy to get “one year too early”.

    And I agree that I doubt they make this type of investment, particularly after these comments but, as I said, I think it’s a terrible decision driven by a poor ownership group.  

    Not that long ago, the Os carried a 160m payroll.  No one on the team makes any money outside of a few guys and really, in this scenario, I would trade one of them (Cobb) while trying to save as much money as possible on the deal.  (Probably could eat around half his contract and move him). Davis is an obvious sunk cost. Beyond that, most of the team is making nothing.  Even in an unpredictable revenue year (I believe fans will be back but whatever), this organization can afford a payroll of 70ishM or less.  

    I think given our last two significant forays into the FA starting pitcher market (Ubaldo and Cobb), ownership would be extremely unlikely to spend in the (say) 4/$70 mm range for a starting pitcher who didn’t pitch this year.    And I wouldn’t necessarily blame them, considering that we aren’t likely to contend with or without Stroman next year.    

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  4. 1 hour ago, wildcard said:

    Alberto isn't comparable to Nunez.   Nunez is a run producer that hits homers.  Alberto is a run scorer that does not hit a  lot of homers.   Mancini is more comparable to Nunez.   He is not as good which will be reflected in his salary.   Mancini got 4.75m in his year of arbitration.   Mancini at the time was a poorly rate defense COF/DH/1B.   He had any 899 OPS hitting 35 HR, 97 RBI.  Nunez for the last two season has been on a 30+ HR, 90ish  RBI pace with a 785ish OPS as a DH/1B   I think because has been a full time player and run producer to is in line for a 3M arbitration award.  JMO

    I’ve been hunting around for a better comp for Nunez, a 1B/DH type who’s offensively similar and has been healthy in the two years prior to arbitration.   I haven’t come up with a really decent comp, but based on some weak data points I now think my $1.5 - 2 mm range was low.   I don’t think Nunez is a more valuable player than Alberto, but the 1B/DH types seem to get paid better.    

  5. 1 hour ago, wildcard said:

    Do you think Nunez has any trade value at a 3m salary?

    I do not expect Nunez would earn a $3 mm salary as a first time Arb eligible Super 2.    Alberto earned $1.65 mm this year in his first Arb year, and he was more valuable last year than Nunez was this year and had 3.085 years of service.    I look for Nunez to be in the $1.5 - 2 mm range.    

  6. Our 2019 top two picks, Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, both played at the alternate site this summer.    Adley has not played MiL ball above Delmarva, Gunnar hasn’t played above the GCL.    But both have now faced a lot of major league/AAA pitching.   

    When asked about how Adley had done at the alternate site, Matt Blood said he thought Adley and Gunnar had benefited the most of anyone there.   It was notable to me that the question was about Adley, but Blood volunteered the information about Gunnar in his response.    He added something like, “imagine the challenge of being 19 and facing major league or AAA pitching, but after a couple of weeks Gunnar was right with those guys.”

    Mike Elias echoed the praise for Rutschman.  “He caught and hit every single day in Bowie and had a tremendous summer camp,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said during Saturday afternoon’s Zoom conference call with the media.

    “He’s a very exciting player. He’s got some special abilities all the way around and I’m glad that we have him. And he may have more activities later this year if we’re able to do something late this year.”

    “I think for everyone the Bowie experience was good, but for him in particular,” Elias said. “He faced basically nothing but Double-A, Triple-A major league arms and to do that and adapt to it is something that’s hard to replicate and it was good to see. He looks good..”


    So that begs the question of where these two start their season next year.    If the 2020 MiL season had been played, I would have expected Gunnar  to start the season at Delmarva.    HIs normal progression would then have been 2021 at Frederick.    Now, even though he hasn’t played above the GCL, I’d normally say they need to skip Delmarva and send him straight to Frederick.    But with the minor leagues probably contracting this winter, there may not be a Frederick.    Instead our A+ team might be at Aberdeen.   So let’s just call it the A+ team.   I’m figuring Henderson starts there, and it wouldn’t shock me if he plays well enough to earn a promotion to AA during the year.

    As to Rutschman, I had figured him to be on the Wieters plan this year, splitting time between Frederick and Bowie.   But I think he just jumps to AA next year and gets promoted to AAA at some point.   I won’t rule out a second half call-up.

    Anyway, it’s good that these guys saw a ton of advanced level pitching this summer.    That could accelerate their development.

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  7. 3 hours ago, OFFNY said:



    GAME ONE )))))) (First Round)



    Some Guy - CF

    Some Guy - LF

    Some Guy - RF

    Some Guy - DH

    Some Guy - 3B

    Some Guy - 2B

    Some Guy - SS

    Some Guy - 1B

    Some Guy - C

    Lucas Frost Giolito - RHP )) (4-3, 3.48 ERA)



    Some Guy - CF

    Some Guy - LF

    Some Guy - RF

    Some Guy - DH

    Some Guy - 3B

    Some Guy - 2B

    Some Guy - SS

    Some Guy - 1B

    Some Guy - C

    Jesus G. Luzardo - LHP )) (3-2, 4.12 ERA)





    You must have really been feeling the itch to post something about this game. 

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  8. 2 hours ago, Philip said:

    Also, if we keep Cobb through the winter, we will need the spot for rule 5 protection.

    People (including me) have been focused on losing that spot for Rule 5 protection if we retain Davis this winter, but it also impacts us every time we make a waiver claim and have to DFA someone to open up a spot for the claimed player.    

  9. Some final defensive numbers:

    Rtot: +15 (6th in MLB)

    Rdrs: -3 (19th in MLB) 

    UZR: -5.4 (21st in MLB)

    Fangraphs defense: -4.4 (21st in MLB) 

    Fielding %: .980 (27th in MLB)

    Overall, a bit better than last year but below average unless you want to believe Rtot.   

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  10. Hanser Alberto started the season on fire, and ended it freezing cold.   We can’t make too much of where he was on hot streaks/cold streaks in a 60 game season.  He ended at .698 OPS this year, and he was that low as late as Game 75 last year before getting hot, then cooling off again towards the end of the year.  

    However, I do see two things that worry me:

    1.   A significant increase in strikeout rate.   Last year Alberto only struck out 50 times in 550 PA, about a 9% K rate.    This year he struck out 30 times in 231 PA, about a 13% K rate.    When you’re a swing-at-everything kind of hitter, making contact is very important.

    2.    He wasn’t as good defensively at 2B as I expected.   Last year he was plus on the defensive metrics at that position, this year he’s minus.   +5 Rtot to -2; +2 Rdrs to -2; +4.0 UZR to -1.3; OAA +3 to -3.    Defensive metrics take a long time to stabilize, but I take them seriously when they all point the same direction.   And, the eye test agrees with those numbers.    

    wildcard has pointed out many times that Alberto has pretty extreme L/R splits, and while last year I didn’t want to jump to any conclusions based on one year of data (.948/.609) given his lack of extreme splits in the minors, the same pattern showed this year (.917/.635).    It’s fair to question if Alberto should remain an everyday player.

    I still like Alberto, but I’d classify 2020 as disappointing for him.   

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  11. 4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

    Wonder how MacPhail got them to eat the Gibbons contract?

    I realize that it wasn't nearly as much money, but Gibbons also wasn't nearly as bad a player as Davis has been.

    Aside from Gibbons, has ownership eaten a significant contract by cutting a player early?  I feel like there was 1 or 2 more but I'm drawing a blank. 


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  12. 2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Remember when we didn't understand why Mountcastle didn't get called up after the apparent super 2 deadline had passed?  Then a few days later he did get called up?

    There is no such thing as an apparent Super 2 deadline, especially this year.    

    It is my understanding that every day of service time this year counts as 2.8 days, for FA/Arb eligibility purpose.    Looks like Mountcastle was up for 38 days which translates to 106 days of service.    We won’t know the cutoff date until the end of 2022 (by which time there will be a new CBA and Lord knows if Super-2 will still exist or how it will be determined).   

    Last winter the super 2 cutoff was 2.115 (Josh Hader), lowest in a decade.    Mountcastle’s 106 sets him up to be lower than that at the end of 2022.   Whether that’ll keep him out of Super-2 is anyone’s guess.   The Brewers probably thought they were safe bringing up Hader in 2017 considering that the cutoff had been above 2.130 each of the previous three years and hadn’t been below 2.122 this decade.    But they were wrong.   And I’d imagine the whole pattern of callups was different this year because of the short season, so it’s really hard to know what to expect.   

  13. 1 hour ago, Philip said:

    It’s really important to not talk about these guys without also discussing their defense, because defense is really important and as we saw with Trumbo, bad defense can wipe out good offense.

    Stewart made an honestly great catch last night, and he’s faster than he looks, so he might be ok, though Santander my RF for now. Mullins has no arm, but being able to get to and catch the ball is paramount. Hays needs to stay healthy. I’d rather have MC learning first. He hits, but his glove is something to write home about.

    Yes, I included the WAR figures because they tell you something about their defense.   Obviously there is more we could say about that and I think I made a post within the last two weeks citing Rtot, Rdrs, UZR and OAA for all of them.   To me Hays is the best all around defender of the group.   Mullins covers a bit more ground but has nowhere near the arm Hays does.   Santander is solid enough and I think Stewart and Mountcastle are below average.   It’s going to be interesting if and when Diaz gets called up because I think he’s at least average and maybe a bit better defensively.   

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  14. First 20 games/second 20/third 20

    Severino .942/.849/.276

    Ruiz .950/.560/.696

    Nunez .980/.699/.747

    Alberto .910/.600/.519

    Santander .858/.926/—

    Sisco 1.182/.671/.472

    Team as a whole:

    First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

    Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

    Third 20: .715OPS, 4.10 runs/game

    I guess the emphatic answer to the question in the thread title is: not real, except maybe Santander.   

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  15. On 9/12/2020 at 8:07 AM, Frobby said:


    I agree this is going to be an interesting story to follow next year.    Santander, Mountcastle, Hays, Stewart, Mullins.    Diaz and McKenna trying to work their way up.     Hopefully, Mancini healthy and available to play OF if needed but instead playing 1B/DH where he’s better suited.    Could be a lot of fighting for playing time.    

    So far this year:

    Santander 165 PA, .890 OPS, 1.3 rWAR

    Mullins 97 PA, .743 OPS, 0.6 rWAR

    Hays 77 PA, .519 OPS, -0.2 rWAR

    Mountcastle 74 PA, 1.004 OPS, 0.9 rWAR

    Stewart 51 PA, 1.275 OPS, 0.8 rWAR

    Still enough time to spread another 200-250 PA among the latter four this season, depending on how the DH slot gets used.    You could get all four into the 110+ PA range if you tried (and Hays returns soon enough).    

    Final tallies:

    Santander 165 PA, .890 OPS, 1.3 rWAR, 1.5 rWAR

    Mullins 153 PA, .723 OPS, 0.4 rWAR.

    Mountcastle 140 PA, .878 OPS, 0.5 rWAR

    Hays 134 PA, .722 OPS, 0.7 rWAR

    Stewart 112 PA, .809, 0.6 rWAR

    The Santander injury was unfortunate, but Hyde did a nice job of using the opportunity spread the playing time around.    Now we go into next season with all these guys having had a taste of semi-regular playing time in the majors. That’s a nice spot to be in.   

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  16. Some thoughts about rookie status.

    This year, 75 position players made their major league debut.  Only 7 of them surpassed rookie status.    The one with the lowest number of at bats was Luis Garcia of the Nats, who had 134 at bats in 139 PA (one less PA than Mountcastle).   46 of the 75 debuted before Mountcastle, but he was 7th in total PA, 8th in AB.

    Last year 98 position players debuted.    54 have lost their rookie status by now, but 44 still have it (at least, based on the AB criterion; some may have lost it on days of service).

    83 position players debuted in 2018.    60 have lost rookie status, 23 still have it (based on AB).

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  17. 10 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

    In so called real time, this was a 7 game win increase over last season if we average the performance over a full length season.  Not spectacular, but improvement.  I thought we were more competitive this year just from the eye/smell test, but that might have just been the placebo of having baseball as a nice diversion with the pandemic.  Which ever it was, I still enjoyed watching this team more this year and feel like they did play better than last year.

    How are you arriving at 7 game increase?   25-35 projects to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    That’s 13.5 games better than in 2019.

    Honestly, I think that overstates the amount by which we improved, but that’s the math.





  18. 5 hours ago, Philip said:

    I appreciate the info, but didn’t Baumann have a serious injury? One that required one of those “we expect he’ll be ready for ST and he won’t need surgery” statements?

    He was shut down but they’re saying it’s not too serious.   If I were a team that liked him, I wouldn’t let the injury risk deter me.   They can always give him back, or DL him like we did with Santander and drag out his rehab in a way that gives him plenty of MiL time before he has to serve out his “full season” in the majors. I’d be shocked if Baumann isn’t protected.  

  19. Guys who could be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster:   Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mattson, Hanifee, Pop.   (There’s a few others who have no risk of being picked.).  How many of those get added determines how many need to be removed (more or less; right now we have 20 pitchers on the 40 man and I’d expect it to stay at about that number).   

  20. 3 hours ago, thezeroes said:

    A TOR to me is one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.  Some teams may have more than two of these while some have none.

    An ACE would be the top twenty of those 60 pitchers IMO.

    I’m a little stricter.   I want a TOR to be worthy of a top 2 spot in a decent rotation over at least a few years.    Not that he has to perform to no. 2 standards every single year, but most of the time.   When I think of a TOR, John Lackey and AJ Burnett come to mind.    Maybe a little lower down than that is still TOR.

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