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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Interestingly, Bradish has had more AAA innings (86.2) than Kremer (81.2) and Baumann (27.0), though he’s only played two seasons of professional baseball. I don’t know that any of the three need more seasoning. But, they need to be pitching well this spring and not get a job handed to them. If not, back to AAA until they do pitch well for a good period.
  2. Definitely yes. Unlikely but possible. Probably. Not very high. No. 3/$30 mm, without incentives. They’ve already decided. Players will be ready by the time he’s traded or the year ends. Then he’ll be too expensive. Next?
  3. I don’t think Odor is likely to have a revival in Baltimore, but let me ask this: how excited was anyone when we signed Nate McLouth? You never know.
  4. Already a thread on this in the MiL forum.
  5. For Palmer, 12.4% walks with bases empty, 8.1% with one on, 7.7% with two on, 6.1% with bases loaded. I picked a year from the middle of Palmer’s career. Walk rates in 1974 were around 8% with very little difference relative to how many baserunners there were.
  6. 6.1%. 13 times out of 213. I’ll have to look to see what’s typical.
  7. Here’s a slightly different way to look at this. AL pitchers allowed a homer in 3.9% of PA with the bases empty, 3.1% with one on, 5.1% with two on, 2.4% with bases loaded. The O’s were at 4.1%, 3.6%, 6.0% and 6.7%. I got curious how Jim (no grand slam) Palmer did in these situations. 3.0% with bases empty, 1.8% with either one or two on, 0.0% with bases loaded. He was clearly an example of a guy who was less careful with nobody on base.
  8. I expect the trend should hold true generally. He who puts more runners on base is more likely to allow homers with runners on base. Makes sense. My guess is there are some pitchers who pitch a little differently with the bases empty vs. runners on. They’re just more willing to challenge a hitter when nobody’s on. And, some pitchers may just be better out of the windup than the stretch. So those things come into play.
  9. Interesting, that’s the first time I’ve seen Termarr Johnson ranked no. 1, much less described as being in a “tier of his own.” For context, right now Longenhagen grades him a 50, with the next tier at 45+. In the past, at draft time Rutschman was a 60, Torkelson a 55, and he’s ranked a bunch of guys at 50 including Kjerstad and Cowser. So I wouldn’t get too caught up in that “tier of his own” comment just yet.
  10. I’m trying to talk myself into liking this move a little better than I did initially. fWAR likes Lyles more than rWAR (5.9 fWAR vs. -2.5 rWAR career). I’m usually not a big fWAR fan when it comes to pitchers (it liked Ubaldo and Ponson to an absurd extent), but at least it’s something. Basically, this boils down to whether Lyles can come close to replicating last season while pitching for us, in our stadium, against the teams we face. If he can come close, then he’s a useful addition. I do think there’d be significant value in a guy who gets through 6+ innings 60% of the time and
  11. To be precise about this, Orioles pitchers went 6+ innings 32 times last year, including 7+ seven times. Lyles went 6+ 18 times, seven of which were 7+. And it’s not like he was just being left out there to take a beating. 15 of the 18 were quality starts, and in another he went 7 IP 4 ER. The other two were 6 IP 4 ER and 6 IP 5 ER. Not great, not ungodly awful either. He had 5 other outings where he pitched 5+ and allowed 2 or 3 runs. So really, more than 2/3 of the times he took the ball, he went at least 5 innings and kept his team in the game. I’d be very happy if he did that
  12. If Holt doesn't get better results, and Elias still supports him, Elias won't be here long.
  13. Maybe our plan is to trade him to the Brewers for the stretch run.
  14. Probably a loose one at least. It's also worth mentioning that relievers often come into games with runners already on base, so they are probably a little more prone to giving up multi-run homers, as a percentage of their home runs allowed.
  15. By the way, in case you're wondering about the offensive side of the equation, the O's scored 284 runs on their 195 homers, 1.46 per homer, below league average of 1.56. They hit 68% solos, 26% 2-run dingers, and only 5% three-run jobs and 2% grand slams.
  16. Got to thinking about this topic when I saw that Jordan Lyles had allowed 28 solo shots and 10 2-run homers among his 38 homers allowed last year. That's 1.26 runs per homer allowed. I got to wondering what is average, and how the various Orioles did on this measure. In the AL last year, 60% of homers allowed were solos, 27% 2-run homers, 11% 3-run shots, 2% grand slams. That is 1.56 runs for each homer hit. For the O's, 55% of the homers they allowed were solos, 26% 2-run homers, 15% 3-run shots, 4% grand slams. That's 1.69 runs per homer. So not only did we yield the most h
  17. In 2021, 60% of homers were solo, 27% with one on. Lyles in his career has allowed 55% solos, 35% with one on. Probably just random variation from the norm. The O’s as a team allowed 50 homers that were either three-run shots (39) or grand slams (11), representing 19% of the homers they allowed, way over the league average (surprise surprise)
  18. We’ll see if he can top the 41 homers Bundy allowed in 2018. One interesting fact: of his 38 homers allowed last year, 28 were solo shots and the other 10 were all with one runner on base. So at least he limited the damage. His HR/9 has really varied a great deal over his career. I expect he’ll allow a lot this year but hopefully it won’t be as bad as we fear.
  19. Well, the good thing about Lyles last year was he made 15 quality starts. So, those are games where he pitched a lot of innings and kept his team in the game. In six of those, he actually went 7 innings. He also had several other decent games, like 7 IP 4 ER and 5.2 IP 2 ER. If you look at his game log, he really only got clobbered a handful of times. Honestly, if he could have the exact same year with us as he had for Texas, I’d take it. The issue is how much those numbers change pitching in OPACY and the AL East. (It’s always good to remember that we actually play less t
  20. Agreed. But by paying him $7 mm, we can now say our payroll is higher than what the Mets are paying Scherzer. So at least there’s that.
  21. Here’s some news that slipped under the radar. No big deal here but the O’s signed former Red Sox farmhand and RHP Denyi Reyes yesterday. Spent last year in AA. Underwhelming stuff, very good control. Here’s a more detailed scouting report: https://soxprospects.com/players/reyes-denyi.htm
  22. Per Baseball Savant, Odor would have hit 17 homers if he’d played all his games at Yankee Stadium, and 17 if he’d played all his games at OPACY. He’s basically gaining nothing by moving from NY to Baltimore. Any statistical improvement is going to have to come from actual improvement, not switching stadiums.
  23. They were comparable five years ago. Not anymore.
  24. It reminds me of the Woody Allen joke about the storekeeper who sets his prices so low that he loses money on every sale, but makes it up on volume.
  25. My point (and going back to the post about the Cubs that started this) is that 47-115 and 71-91 are two very different starting points when deciding how to get back to being a contender. To me, the Cubs have choices; the Orioles really didn’t, by the time Elias got here (and arguably even before that). If your point is that Elias knew what he was getting into, well sure he did. And if you’re saying the owners picked him because his vision was consistent with the approach they wanted to take (and had already set out on), I’m fine with that too.
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