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Frobby

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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Yes, fair enough. But Florida’s 1 in four right now is WAY above the national average, which is about 1 in 14. Maryland is about 1 in 20.
  2. Interesting. Maximum of 60 players per team, so that’s less than 1800 of the 3185 people tested who are players. Yet, they’re over 80% of the ones who tested positive. Probably pretty representative of the younger people being less vulnerable and therefore less careful about being exposed. Meanwhile though, I heard that 1 out of every 4 people being tested in Florida is testing positive right now. So 1.2% (or call it more like 2% among the players) sounds pretty darned good compared to what’s going on in some places. Glad they’re testing.
  3. Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards estimates the odds of someone hitting .400 over a 60-game schedule at about 3%. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-a-player-hit-400-this-season/
  4. I like those OF dimensions. Should make for some very wacky bounces and maybe a few gruesome injuries.
  5. Will you stop interrupting this important conversation about crab cakes? 😎 Servideo has not signed yet, to my knowledge. Hopefully soon. I generally only eat crab cakes when I’m at a pretty nice restaurant. I’ve never experienced a real lower-end (price-wise) crab cake place. They don’t really exist in DC or its suburbs, unfortunately.
  6. Morris was 7-1, 2.60 in the postseason prior to his poor run in 1992. So, he did deserve his reputation for being good in the postseason, but then he undid it. Objectively, he was a very good pitcher but probably a little short of what I’d expect from a Hall of Famer. But it doesn’t offend me that he’s in there.
  7. I’ll be happy if conditions exist that allow them to get their 60 games in. Frankly, it’s looking worse by the day right now and who knows how things will look in late July when they plan to start up.
  8. So in essence you’re in favor of a system with no spending caps.
  9. I think Mountcastle was ready offensively too. Opinions differ on whether he was ready defensively, and whether that should matter if he was ready offensively. I’m willing to give the O’s the benefit of the doubt on that. And I’m perfectly comfortable playing service time games while your team stinks, as long as you don’t totally abuse it.
  10. Before this year got cut short, I was expecting next year to be one where we’d make some serious W/L progress. Not that we’d be a .500+ team, but we wouldn’t be a bottom feeder like we are now. But now I’m not sure. A lot of guys in the upper minors are losing the chance to get that last bit of polish they need.
  11. I’m trying to understand the “stubborness” point in the context of this discussion. Nothing has happened since the college season was interrupted that would give them a reason to change whatever opinion they had at that time. I do agree that BA sometimes hangs on to a prospect they like too long, or refuse to acknowledge that someone not initially on their radar has become a top prospect.
  12. I enjoyed it. Would be exciting if true.
  13. I remember when my cousin was 14-15, his sisters were teasing him about not needing to shave, and he replied “studies show that men who shave earlier die earlier.” I doubt he knew what he was talking about, but it shut his sisters up immediately.
  14. Kjerstad is a really young-looking guy.
  15. So here’s a question: assuming that we could have afforded to sign Nick Gonzalez and still signed the other players we drafted, would you rather have had Gonzalez than Kjerstad? It appears he only cost an extra $200 k or so and that we may have more than that to spare after signing Servideo.
  16. Here’s a nice database of what players have signed for and what their slot value was: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/ Here’s the top ten guys (slot/actual) Torkelson $8.4/$8.4 Kjerstad $7.8/$5.2 Meyer $7.2/$7.2 Lacy $6.7/$6.7 Martin $6.2/— Hancock $5.7/$5.7 Gonzalez $5.4/$5.4 Hassell $5.2/$4.3 Veen $4.9/$5.0 Detmers $4.7/$4.7 Basically, everyone signed for slot except Kjerstad (-$2.6 mm) and Hassell (-$900 k), and Martin is the only unsigned player in the top 10. I think it’s possible that his agent overplayed his hand.
  17. Very good discussion of the economics of this deal in this old ESPN article. It’s important to remember that interest rates were much higher in 2000 than they are today. Basically, he bought a bond at 8% and now interest rates on similar bonds are at like 3%. So, things worked out in his favor if you look at it that way. But that wasn’t the agent’s doing. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/16650867/why-mets-pay-bobby-bonilla-119-million-today-every-july-1-2035
  18. It’s also a quote that should be trotted out every spring training.
  19. With the win, the O’s ended June at 47-28, 3 games ahead in the AL East. They treaded water in June, going 14-13.
  20. Elias says — On trying to make evaluations in a shortened season: “It’s going to be a very small sample for these players. I think in terms of evaluating our talent based on what happens this year, we’re going to be probably more reliant on objective criteria that are not the statistical samples that could be misleading in this short of a time. We’re going to be looking at guys’ stuff, what type of shape they’re in, how they’re playing defense, how hard they’re hitting the ball, all that. But it is very possible that somebody has a pretty misleading stat line over 60 games that they wouldn’t have had over 162. “It’s just one of the many challenges of this season. There are so many, it’s hard to think of them all and that’s just one of them. I imagine we’re going to have to make some personnel decisions like we do at the end of every year and we’re only working with a third of the info that we’re accustomed to.” https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/06/elias-so-far-we-are-expecting-full-participation.html
  21. Pretty sure he meant Jesus Luzardo.
  22. The best player drafted in the first round. Ian Kinsler (55 rWAR) was drafted in the 9th round that year. (And technically, Max Scherzer was drafted in the 43rd round, though he didn’t sign.)
  23. Here’s my point: you think you are going to need your whole allotment to sign the players you chose. It turns out that you can sign the group for $400 k less than you thought. Do you pay them the whole allotment to avoid the supposed embarrassment of underspending it, or do you take the savings and find something else to do with it? I’d vote for the latter every time. And in five years, I won’t remember what we paid these guys, but I will remember where we drafted them and take note of how well they’ve performed. If Kjerstad turns into a good player, it won’t matter to me whether they paid him $5.2 mm or $5.6 mm.
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