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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. I do feel that the Tejada-bashers ignore the good plays Tejada makes and sometimes make too much of his failure to get to certain balls. For example, in Monday's game Tejada made a great stop and throw from the OF grass in the hole. Meanwhile, Julio Lugo went to go get a ball in the hole, gloved it, but couldn't keep it in his glove and it went for a hit. Another time in the game, on Millar's two run single, the ball was a grounder hit to the SS side of 2B and Lugo couldn't get to it. If either of those plays had happened to Tejada, the Tejada-bashers would have been out in force criticizing his range.
  2. I haven't watched every inning of every game since Tejada came back, but I find it hard to call a guy "brilliant" when he has made 2 errors in 5 games since he returned. I have seen him make a couple of very tough plays in the hole that I do not believe our other shortstops would have had the arm to pull off. I haven't seen the pop ups to which you refer so I can't comment on those.
  3. Can someone describe the play that resulted in the error? I wasn't watching at the time. However, when I got in my car (in about the 6th inning) the announers were discussing some other defensive play by Tejada that they had described as outstanding (maybe starting a tough DP, but I'm not sure).
  4. Frobby

    HoF 2008 Who's in/out?

    Raines is clearly the class of the first-time eligibles. He's a great test case for the sabermetric crowd. I'm guessing that he won't get in on the first ballot, though. Next year is a great time for one or two guys who have been lurking for a while finally getting the nod.
  5. First of all, a 10th losing season is not yet a certainty by any stretch. Dealing these players for prospects would make it far more likely, though. That wouldn't have stopped me from making a trade, if the value offerend in exchange had some decent probability of paying dividends in the future. But if not, I'd rather keep the player. Let me give some specific examples. Last year we traded Javy Lopez for Adam Stern in early August. Then we traded Rodrigo Lopez for Jim Miller and Jason Burch in the offseason. I would not have traded Millar, Bradford or Walker for players such as these. In fact, I doubt I would have traded Payton for them. Trachsel, maybe.
  6. Mussina is already better than numerous pitchers who are in the Hall of Fame. There are 26 pitchers in the Hall of Fame who have fewer wins than Mussina; 34 who have a lower ERA+ than Mussina; 51 who have a lower winning percentage than Mussina. The fact that he is not as good as some Hall of Famers isn't the issue.
  7. Kevin Brown is underrated, I'd agree. As good as Jim Palmer? Sorry, but no. In this case, WARP3 is warped.
  8. Frobby

    Tex traded to Baves

    No, he won't. And I don't see A-Rod getting $30 mm/yr, either, unless some team is as stupid as the Rangers were when he signed.
  9. Frobby

    Tex traded to Baves

    Let the mass suicides begin....
  10. He's borderline, and how he finishes his career will be important. If he continues to pitch as he has so far this year through this season and the next, he may fizzle out just short of the finish line. But if he rebounds, has a winning record by the time this year is over and again next year and gets to, say, 265 wins in the process, I think he has a very good shot. If you look behind Moose, once he passes 250 wins, it could be a long time before anyone else passes that mark: Mussina (38) 244 Wells (44) 235 Moyer (44) 225 Schilling (40) 213 Rogers (42) 210 Martinez (35) 206 Smoltz (40) 203 Pettitte (35) 192 Wakefield (40) 163 Due to injuries and/or age, none of those guys are sure things, and beyond them everyone is 100+ wins away. So 250 is going to be looking pretty good by the time Mussina has been retired for 5 years.
  11. Oh, I agree. The lucky part is that Cleveland let him go and two other teams passed.
  12. Let me not mince words: picking Guthrie up off the waiver wire is the best break the Orioles have gotten in many years. He is going to be a cheap no. 2-3 pitcher (at least) for us for the next 5 years. We didn't have to invest three or four years in him to get a few good years, we're gonna get ALL of his good years. Barring injury he is the steal of the decade for this team.
  13. One of Trembley's great strengths is that he has gotten everyone involved. Nobody is sitting for weeks at a time without playing. I'm encouraged that he made the statement you quoted.
  14. Roch can have opinions like anybody else. Just because he's thinking about it doesn't mean that Trembley is (or isn't). I don't know about "a couple of times a week," but if Tejada DH'd a little more often than he has in the past (say, once a week) it would be OK with me.
  15. It IS a fact -- but only because his replacements have both hit and fielded very well in his absence, and better than we could expect them to do over a longer period of time. These guys have hit .298 collectively and made one error in a month -- their track records say they won't continue playing at that level on either side of the diamond.
  16. I think we need to separate two propositions: 1. The team would be better off getting a superior defensive SS and moving Miggy to a new position. 2. The team would be better off putting Luis Hernandez at SS and moving Miggy to a new position. Luis Hernandez has played over his head over a short period of time -- both offensively and defensively. I'm glad that he has, because that has been good for the team. Over time, though, he will find his level. For Orioles: .321/.345/.393, 0 errors over 10 games For Bowie/Norfolk: .244/.277/.308, 9 errors over 77 games 2006: .256/.290/.322 (don't know about his fielding)
  17. Very thought-provoking post. Not sure if I buy it 100%, but rep points for you anyway! Also, I've said this before, but Oriole fans are uncommonly spoiled. In Mark Belanger, Cal Ripken and Mike Bordick, the O's had three shortstops who were not only great with the leather, but who almost never made mental errors of any kind. I don't know how many shortstops like that exist, light-hitting or not. Certainly you are right that this is extemely valuable and underappreciated.
  18. Tejada's defense also was poor in April of this year, and that left a strong impression on some people. Here were my comments from my April defense project: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46253&highlight=defense However, Tejada really picked things up after that. Here's my post analyzing fielding stats from May: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47813&highlight=defense And, finally, June: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49672&highlight=defense My feeling is that Tejada played very poor defense in the first month, both statistically and in ways that don't show up in statistics. He played far better in May and June, again both statistically and otherwise. But people are still fixated on his poor play in April.
  19. You make a lot of good points in your post. I would be the first to admit that Tejada made some mental mistakes and blew some DP's that don't show up in his fielding percentage. The real question is, were there more of these types of plays than the average SS makes? And that's very hard to judge unless you are watching every other SS play over a long time like we have done with Tejada. Personally, I feel that Tejada's detractors tend to exaggerate the numer of times these things have happened.
  20. Who is the pitching coach at Frederick, and how long (and where) has he been coaching with the Orioles before this year?
  21. Correct. His replacements have played truly outstanding defensive baseball -- Gold Glove level -- over a relatively short period of time. In that sense, they have played much better defense than Tejada, but also every other shortstop in baseball.
  22. This is true. However, who cares "why" a player gets to a ball (positioning vs. true range), so long as he gets there.
  23. I think you have to consider whether the awesome defensive play of Tejada's replacements has been a bit fluky, too. Neither Fahey nor Hernandez has made an error in their limited time in Baltimore this year, but Fahey made 8 in 76 games in Norfolk and Hernandez made 9 in 77 games in Bowie/Norfolk. Last year Fahey played 97 innings of SS for the Orioles (about 11 full games) and made 3 errors. These guys have done a great job splitting time in Baltimore over a month; I'm not sure you'd see the same results over 162 games.
  24. My understanding is that the field is divided into a grid and that the "zones" are the same for every player. The delineation of the zones is not subjective, but there may be some slight subjectivity to judging which zone the ball was in.
  25. I agree with Eli Eon that the defense at SS has been better while Tejada has been out. However, that is not an indicitment or criticism of Tejada's defense. It so happens that his replacements have played spectacular defensive baseball. At the time of his injury, Tejada ranked 2nd among AL shortstops in fielding percentage, at .979. However, his replacements have made only one error, fielding at a .993 clip. Tejada ranked 3rd in zone rating, at .858. However, his replacements have done even better: Fahey .923 (8 starts), Gomez .833 (9 starts), Hernandez 1.000 (7 starts), Bynum .958 (6 starts). Collectively, that is a ZR of about .921. So, the replacements' fielding percentage of .993 would easily be best among all AL shortstops (highest is Orlando Cabrera at .985), and their zone rating of .921 also would easily be best (highest is Bobby Crosby at .870). The AL shortstop with the most DP's is Derek Jeter, with 74 in 99 games. Tejada's replacements have turned 26 double plays in 30 games, which is a much better rate than Jeter's. Conclusion: this isn't about whether Tejada is a good fielder or not. It is about the fact that his replacements have played amazing defense over the last month.
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