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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. Could you explain why you say his power is in decline? His ISO the last three years has been .124, .142 and .154. I'd say his power has been on the rise. Indeed, other than 2005, his ISO has increased every year since 2002. Personally, I feel you need to treat the first month of 2005 as the fluke it was. Brian hit 8 HR that month, then 10 the rest of the year. On the other hand, he only hit 3 doubles that April. So basically, 5-6 balls went for HR's that in a typical month would have gone for doubles.
  2. It isn't personal to Roberts. For whatever reason, 2B tend to not maintain their level of play into their mid-30's. They lose 4-6 plays per year in range in their 30's, and hitting declines as well. Obviously, not every 2B ages exactly the same and it is possible that Roberts will be one of the rare 2B who is still above average at age 35. But the odds are against that. My best guess is: 2009 - significantly above average 2010 - significantly above average 2011 - somewhat above average 2012 - average 2013 - somewhat below average If he does that, he'll earn his $40 mm. But if he declines a little faster, he may not.
  3. While I agree with your general point, let's not forget that any fielder who is left-handed is precluded from playing C, 2B, 3B or SS. There are probably a number of LH 1B who are very good defensively but simply are foreclosed from playing the other infield spots. (Obviously, I'm not talking about Snyder, who is RH.) I also think it's possible that, although 3B is generally more difficult than 1B, there may be some players who find it easier. The skill of staying on the bag while snaring errant throws is something you don't do much at 3B. Also the skill of knowing when to go after a ball in the hole, and when to retreat to the bag (something Millar didn't always understand).
  4. Brandon did play 64 games at 1B in 2007, so 2008 was not his first experience there. But I agree, in some ways 3B is less complicated than 1B, though it demands better reflexes and a better arm.
  5. I'd like to see the O's try Snyder at 3B this year. I think the odds that he can be a major league quality defender there are kind of long, but it's worth a shot.
  6. Here is what I think: at the end of the day, it all depends on how long Brian Roberts is an above average 2B. Paying $10 mm to an above average 2B is not overpaying. Paying $10 mm to an average or below 2B is overpaying. I think when it's all said and done we'll feel the deal was generous to BRob, but that overall we got good value for our money.
  7. Snyder's got a big league future, but I don't see him making the team this spring. The organization is in a better place than it was when Nick made the team, and Nick was a more complete player. But it would not be a huge surprise if we saw Snyder in September.
  8. Frobby

    Nolan Reimold

    If Reimold plays well, he won't rot in AAA. Let's not forget, he has never played there at all. Pie, on the other hand, has played 281 games at the AAA level, and has done well there. He's earned his stripes. As to the Manny comparison, let's not get carried away. By the time Manny was 25 (Reimold's age now), he'd already had two full major league seasons where he'd put up an OPS far higher than anything Reimold has done in the minors. If Reimold goes to AAA and does well, he will get his chance.
  9. Frobby

    Nolan Reimold

    We just need to redefine what constitutes a "monster year." Put it this way, he needs to do more than Knott and House did in Norfolk in 2007, and more than Montanez does this year, if he wants to rise. Salazar proved you can put up pretty good numbers at Norfolk.
  10. Ooh, now this will be fun! I guess 500 results is as high as the system counts, because when I plugged in Sports Guy and "trade" I also got 500 results, dating back to July 19, 2008. That's not 500 posts, it's 500 different threads in which SG has mentioned the word "trade." RShack, over the last 12 months, has mentioned "trade" in 145 threads. I've mentioned "trade" in 230 threads in the last year. I'm not sure how you did your search. What time period, and do "results" mean threads, or posts?
  11. Well, I didn't start the thread to provoke that kind of a discussion, but I have to admit, in hindsight it was probably foreseeable that the thread would play out the way it did. All I was really trying to say is, "let's stop and smell the roses, it's spring training!" But I guess if I had said that, someone would have suggested that we trade the roses for some seed packets and a bulb to be named later.
  12. Frobby

    Nolan Reimold

    Reimold was a longshot to make the team even before all the trades. Montanez seemed to be ahead of him on the 2009 depth chart. Hopefully he plays well this spring, turns some heads, then puts together a good year at Norfolk, earning a call-up in September or earlier. Obviously, if there are some injuries or a deadline trade that changes the picture.
  13. Go back and read my two posts in this thread. I never said talking about trades was wrong or that it should be stopped altogether - I said I was tired of it at the moment. And as I said in my 2nd post, I was really just venting. Proceed.
  14. It's a huge year for Rowell if he wants to firm up his now shaky top prospect status.
  15. I want to make it clear - I'm all in favor of discussing trades on the OH. I'm just a little sick of it at the moment because we've had a whole winter of it and now there's actual non-trade news to discuss (i.e., what's going on in spring training). And as I said, it's pretty darned unlikely we're going to see any trades in the next 4.5 months. Don't take my post as anything other than a little venting. The posters who pointed out that I don't have to read the trade threads are 100% right -- though it's my habit to read almost anything posted by anyone.
  16. I know there are some posters (cough - SG - cough) whose favorite passtime is thinking about what trades could be made to improve the team. But can't we ever give it a rest? There's probably less than a 5% chance that the O's are going to make any significant trade between now and July 1. Can't we just enjoy spring training, look forward to the season, and cut the speculation about who might be dealt at the deadline for a few weeks? If there is any inkling of a rumor of an actual, pending trade involving the Orioles that is under discussion by the front office, I'm all in favor of discussing it. But as Ecclesiastes said, "for everything there is a season." And this isn't the season to worry about July. A million things could happen between now and then. I realize this plea will fall on deaf ears. It's a free country, and people are going to post about whatever they think is interesting to them. I'm just personally burnt out on the topic of trades, and I don't want what's actually going on at this very interesting time of year drowned out in a sea of hypotheticals that are many months from any serious consideration by the front office.
  17. Nice little article. I hope Brandon turns a few heads in Ft. Lauderdale.
  18. I wish I could say I had a clear memory. I don't remember having any interest in major league baseball until the 1966 World Series, when I was 9 year old. If I watched Games 1 and 2 of that Series, I don't remember it now. But I watched Games 3 and 4 intently. When Frank Robinson hit the HR that won Game 4, it cemented him as my baseball hero. Honestly, I'm not sure I knew who he was before that Series. In any event, the light clicked on with an intense brilliance that has never turned off since that day.
  19. http://masnsports.com/2009/02/spoone-fed-a-blog-entry.html
  20. I think most fans are still very happy with Mora. Obviously Gibbons turned into a disaster. As I said, I don't think it was obvious at the time that the Gibbons deal would turn out that badly. 4/$21 mm for a guy who had always had a .780+ OPS except one year when he was hurt was maybe a mild mistake, but not a gross overpayment at the time. I think Drungo hit on the key point -- the mistake there was locking up a player who, even if he hadn't failed, was basically only average to begin with. If you are going to tie yourself up, do it with players who are well above average.
  21. You are right. One thing I want to add about those deals, though. They both occurred after a 2005 season in which a star player was found to have tested positive for steroids, and implicated another star player, and team morale was at its absolute lowest point when that season ended. I think the O's really thought it was imperative to reward two players who had been stand-up guys during that whole process. Gibbons at the time was the player rep and had been the face of the team during media inquiries the last 6 weeks of the season. He also had a pretty good year, playing well down the stretch while most of the team was dogging it. Mora also had a very good year, and was the one who talked Tejada off the ledge in the offseason. I think the O's felt they needed to show the rest of the team that they were rewarding the loyalty of these players had shown in some difficult circumstances. I don't think anyone would have anticipated, at the time, that Gibbons was never going to play well again, and would get hurt. At the time, I think it was reasonable to expect him to put up an OPS between .770-.830 over the next few years. It didn't turn out that way.
  22. Also according to Ken Rosenthal earlier today. At that price, it's fairly easy for me to swallow that 4th year.
  23. While I am happy with the offseason, the only "wins" that matter, and the only "objective measure" that counts, are the actual wins on the field. If the year ends and the O's are close to a .500 team, the proof will be in the pudding. But if we're wallowing close to the 70-win mark, objectively Heyman will have been proved correct - and least so far as 2009 is concerned.
  24. This is not the first time I've been unimpressed with Heyman's analysis.
  25. The risk of losing BRob is pretty much the same as the risk of losing Mussina or Ryan by letting them go into their contract year. The Yankees are unhappy with Cano. The Mets are unhappy with Castillo. What are the chances that one or both of them go hard after BRob if he's available next winter? Quite high, I'd say.
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