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Everything posted by Frobby

  1. It means he comes to spring training and gets plenty of innings to show what he's got. If at the end of ST it's a borderline call as to whether he's one of the best 13 pitchers on the staff, he gets the benefit of the doubt. If it's not a borderline call, then sayonara. Personally, if he's healthy and fully recovered I expect him to make the team.
  2. The $6 mm is a reason to give Baez every opportunity to prove he can still pitch. It's not a reason to keep him if he can't.
  3. I will be shocked if Rowell doesn't make progress this year. The question is whether he will make enough progress to remain a top prospect.
  4. Rich Hill may never overcome his sudden control problems, but he has a much better chance of being a solid major league pitchers than Brian Burres does. Now the question is whether we continue to pursue Looper, or whether the quantity of pitchers vying for spots 3/4/5 convinces MacPhail that he's better off just giving 3 spots to whoever earns them in spring training and then running out the other arms if and when the initial selections fail.
  5. I recognize his limitations, I just don't think Mickolio and Bundy should be ahead of him, and it is very speculative to put Spoone and Patton ahead of him unless they show they aren't affected by their shoulder surgeries.
  6. It's well-deserved. Let him get a little taste of what he'll be doing in a year or two.
  7. I have seen enough of Mickolio in just a handful of games to know that he's never going to have great command. He's scary as hell with that huge body and awkward delivery, and I'm sure he's very tough to hit when he delivers the ball where he wants to. But I think his ceiling is Chris Ray (2006 version).
  8. BA has Mickolio ranked 10th. If Hernandez is moved to the bullpen, which of the two do you think would be more effective?
  9. Frobby

    Some tid bits

    Good point, but are we in a hurry to do that? Is there a reason it's better to do it now than in late March?
  10. So I hear BA ranks David Hernandez 16th on its Orioles prospect list. Seems pretty low for a guy who has a 10.2 K/9 and has led his league in K's the last couple of seasons. His H/9 and ERA were stellar last year, too. I know the guy has some work to do, but 16th? He's only the 10th-best pitching prospect in the organization? I guess the bright side is the strength of our minor league pitching prospects generally.
  11. Frobby

    Some tid bits

    Thanks BB. If all we are doing is picking up Hill, then why do we need to free up 3-4 spots on the 40-man roster? Is something else in the works?
  12. Have Bergesen throw a few pitches to Nick Markakis and we'll know for sure.
  13. Millar was a really good guy, and his performance on the field wasn't terrible. Even last year he was respectable until mid-late August when he hit the skids hard around the same time the team did. I will miss his personality. I will miss his trick of leaving 1B just a fraction of a second early on close plays and then firing the ball back to Mora before the ump realizes what he did. I will miss his soft hands on errant throws to 1B. I'll miss those 10-pitch ABs he often mustered. All that said, it was definitely time for the O's to move on. Good luck, Kevin.
  14. So if he doesn't fix the problem this spring we DFA him and probably nobody claims him, right? Or would he be a free agent?
  15. My thought exactly! Hill's worth a risk. I guess we'd need to clear another player off the 40-man. Burres this time, I hope.
  16. I think Silva is what we are hoping for. I've been convinced that anyone with a K rate that low in the minors has a pretty low chance of long-term major league success. But Silva is proof that it does happen once in a while.
  17. Depends on my assessment of DCab's health. I was against releasing him, for basically the same reasons I now want Looper -- the need to have someone we can rely on for 180+ innings. Looper's a safer bet to be decent in 2009, but I would have gambled on DCab at a lower price if I was sure that whatever caused him to lose velocity and effectiveness in the 2nd half last season was a one-time problem that had gone away. I don't know what the Orioles know or feel about DCab's health issues last year, but to me that's the biggest question.
  18. I can understand you saying Looper is "bland," but I'd take issue with "poor." His 4.16 ERA was better than the average NL starter's ERA of 4.34. And, there were only 44 NL pitchers who managed to throw 162 innings last year (fewer than three per team). At worst, he was a solid no. 3 starter in the NL last year. Even if you assume he adds .50-75 runs/game to his ERA in changing to the AL East, I still wouldn't call it poor. I'd call it better than every starter we had last year other than Guthrie. My concern with Garland is that his numbers have been slipping. He's younger than Looper but he also has a lot of mileage on his arm, and with his K rate and other numbers getting gradually worse the last 3-4 years, you have to wonder if he is going to hit the wall soon. I'd say my confidence that Garland won't have a major breakdown in the next two years is probably still 65% or higher, but I think he has more risk of that than Looper.
  19. The reason to do it is to actually acquire him. I'd prefer a one-year deal, but if the competition is such that we need to offer two years to convince him, then I'm willing to do it so long as the price is OK. Remember, most free agents, if given equal terms by two teams, are going to choose the team that has a better chance to win. So we're going to have to offer them a little more than the competition. In some cases, it's simply not worth it. Whether it's worth it in this case will depend on exactly what those terms are.
  20. I doubt we're getting him for less than Garland received. I just feel its important to have another guy who is reasonably likely to throw 175-200 innings and average 6 innings per start. It saves huge wear and tear on the bullpen and it forces the younger guys to earn their spots rather than being rushed or having their spots handed to them. Remember, even if we add a guy like Looper, we're going to have two spots that are basically wide open for young pitchers. Plus, Guthrie's shoulder impingement at the end of the season and Uehara's recent history mean that neither of them is certain to be a guy we can count on to make 32 starts this season. I'm just not very worried that there are going to be too few opportunities for young starting pitchers to prove themselves, or that a 2-year contract at $6-7 mm per year or so is somehow going to hamstring us financially. I'm much more worried that Guthrie and/or Uehara gets hurt and suddenly we've got absolutely no established, reliable pitchers in our rotation. I saw what that was like in August/September each of the last two years.
  21. I think SG and I have a basic difference in philosophy, in addition to a difference of opinion about how hard it would be to trade a guy like Looper. The philosophical difference relates to how much we care about 2009. To me, the difference between having a respectable team and a horrible team in 2009 is pretty important, and I'm willing to do some things that pose what I consider minor longer-term risks if it materially improves the chances that the team is decent in 2009. I think in SG's mind, any move that poses any long-term risk, even if small, isn't worth doing. He just doesn't really care how many games the 2009 team wins. 59 wins, 79 wins, it's all the same to him; in fact, he might prefer 59 wins and the overall no. 1 pick that comes with it. I can understand the logic of SG's point of view, but I'm just not wired that way. I have HATED the last two months of the 2007 and 2008 seasons more than I can describe. So if I think signing Brandon Looper can help avoid that outcome, I'm willing to take the chance (which I think is small) that we have trouble dumping his 2nd year.
  22. I'm not sure what your definition of a "big name" is. Are Kawakami and Uehara big names? Jamie Moyer? And why are you limiting your question to starters? Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Fuentes, Damaso Marte and Kerry Wood all got multi-year commitments for pretty big dollars.
  23. I disagree, but leave that to one side. The other option is to make room by trading Guthrie. And it's a lot easier to trade Guthrie if we have someone else who can give us 175-200 innings.
  24. Point 2 is why I said so long as his contract is at a reasonable price. I just don't think it's hard to get rid of a guy like this unless he completely screws the pooch. And I'd rather worry about having too much pitching than not enough. Looking at Looper's trends the last few years, while his K/9 is typically subpar, it's not like he's been in decline. I think he'd give us a year like Kris Benson gave us in 2006, and so long as he doesn't get hurt like Benson did (and he has no injury history to speak of or trends suggesting a slowly developing injury), he'll have value for us or some other team in 2010.
  25. Why? If other guys are ready, we can trade him away, so long as his contract isn't outrageous and he doesn't have his performance fall off the table or get hurt.
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